200,000 Tesla’s—Has anyone done the math?

200,000 Tesla’s—Has anyone done the math?

I am not sure where to get the information to be able to closely predict which month this year Tesla is going to hit the 200,000 mark. I was told there are quarterly reports from which a person should be able to predict the approximate month the 200,000th Tesla will be produced. Not sure where to get those reports and if you need more than one or all that have been filed to make the calculations. Has anyone already done the math?
I can configure a model 3 but am worriedly waiting for AWD with my fingers crossed. Yes, I would like the full tax credit and do not want to get stuck in my slightly inclined snow covered driveway like I have in the past with my ICE front wheel drive vehicle. I was raised in MN driving rear wheel drive vehicles which made for some interesting winter driving experiences. Definitely want AWD!

pnajar | March 6, 2018

At the end of the month I’ll take delivery of 247421. That just means Tesla will have produced close to that number. Not all of that number has been sold in the US. Only USA sold cars will impact the tax credit. Once the cut off is reached then there is a declining credit. It doesn’t go to zero.

EVRider | March 6, 2018

I’m sure we’ll all find out when Tesla actually reaches the 200,000-car milestone, and at that time you’ll still have up to 6 months to take delivery with the full tax credit, so you’ll have time to decide whether to wait for AWD or pull the trigger sooner.

PS: This would be more appropriate for the Model 3 forum.

SUN 2 DRV | March 7, 2018

EVRider: Yes exactly.... there will be at least 91 up to 180 days of full Fed Tax credit available after Tesla reaches the 200k US car delivered milestone. Since the configuration-to-delivery leadtimes are currently 3-6 weeks, this should give you plenty of time to take delivery of a RWD car if the AWD isn't ready by then.

weradln | March 8, 2018

Suspect Tesla will be shipping S's and X's out of the country to keep US deliveries under 200,00 until the quarter is over. That way they get almost a full quarter and the following quarter to deliver cars with the full $7500 rebate. Probably explains why delivery times just jumped.

rbk22 | June 10, 2018

Good point weradin! And also a possible reason to NOT include this thread under ‘Model 3 Forum’, EVRider. The 200,000 includes ALL Tesla models sold in the US. Which makes calculation all that more difficult!

dmm1240 | June 11, 2018

Tesla finished May with cumulative USA shipments of all models @ 193,021 based on estimates provided by company announcements and EV Insider. That leaves room for 7,000 in June. The company has been moving several X/S/3 owners' delivery dates to from June to July.

Expect to see poor delivery numbers for June, the highest number of cars "in transit to customers" ever and unbelievable numbers in July.

Tesla is obviously trying to squeeze one more quarter out of the full $7,500 tax credit to benefit its customers.

Oh, and look for the Seeking Alpha types to jump all over the June numbers claiming Tesla's sales/production are falling off. Don't believe a word of it.

El Mirio | June 11, 2018

It is clear that they are targeting beginning of July to reach 200k US deliveries. Due to following

- Opening up Canada for Model 3 deliveries
- diverting Model 3 to Showrooms for test drives
- 10 day Model 3 line shut down during Q2
- Elon promised they would do everything to maximise tax credit (it is in Tesla interest since this likely causes customers to go for higher spec cars)

@Clublon i wouldn't be worried, pretty much all the signs are that full tax credit will be available until end of the year, 4WD should start shipping of the line in July. But you will need to go for at least the long range battery, so you are looking at approx $54k LR + AWD

dmm1240 | June 11, 2018

I look for Tesla to deliver right at 30,000 cars a month the starting in August. July might top 30,000 substantially.

And Tesla stock is up double digits so far today.

El Mirio | June 11, 2018

@dmm1240 you a right, the ramp is also coinciding with early July. I thought someone at Tesla said they will be limiting deliveries to the U.S. once they hit 5k per week. Pump out as many cars during the tax credit phase out as possible.

johnyi | June 11, 2018

Not sure why but Tesla is pushing me to take delivery of my 100D before the end of June. Ordered it mid-May. I asked to push it out to July when a large CD matures so I can use it for payment, but no go.

dmm1240 | June 11, 2018

That is a bit odd, johnyi. Doesn't fit the narrative. :-)

Kallen | July 20, 2018

My Tesla 3 number came in and they want me to order the car and pay non refundable deposit of 3500 but I don't want the car if I cant get the 7500 fed tax credit. Live is CA who has already stopped tax credit for high wage earners. They say my 3 will deliver in 2-4 months. Does anyone know if 7500 rebate will be available or what the rebate will be? thx!

reed_lewis | July 21, 2018

The $7500 tax credit is in full effect until the end of 2018. So as long as you put the car into service before the end of 2018 you will get the full tax credit.

Yodrak. | July 21, 2018

"So as long as you put the car into service before the end of 2018 you will get the full tax credit."

Provided that you're federal income tax liability is $7,500 or more.