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Will Tesla Increase S range in a year?

Will Tesla Increase S range in a year?

Will Tesla increase Model S range in a year?

Tropopause | March 13, 2018

I don't know.

shaktipatel789 | March 13, 2018

From Ryan at Tesla Nashville, TN, he stated that the model s will 99% not receive a bigger battery, because there simply is no more space inside the car for it to provide more range. He said if they were to add even a single battery pack the car would not have any space at all for other things. Maybe in a different model that they will release will have bigger battery

loc_nguyen | March 13, 2018

In a year is highly unlikely. With Model 3 production ramp, Model Y coming, new Roadster planned, Tesla Semi, etc... It is unlikely that they would change the S or the X design and supply chains to increase their range. If they want to increase the range, it would have to be a pretty big leap; at least 30% increase. Anything less won't worth the time and the effort.

jordanrichard | March 13, 2018

The only way I see them being able to increase the range of the MS is to switch to the same battery cells being used in the M3. If they can get 310 miles from a M3, then a larger pack that would fit in the frame of a MS would surely get significantly more miles.

SpaceGhost | March 13, 2018

The long-range M3 has two factors that give it that much range.

1. The motors are permanent magnet (PM). This is supposed to be more efficient. The trade off may longevity or maximum torque, but I'm guessing at this as I have no real data here.

2. The car is lighter.

They could try changing the MS to PM motors, but I don't think they are ready to do this. The Semi uses the same PM motors as the M3, so longevity may not be an issue, however they gear it differently to allow for more torque and less top speed. In the end, they could come out with a very efficient MS, but it may be at the cost of some fun. Time will tell.

Pungoteague_Dave | March 13, 2018

The 2170 cell will do it, but that will take a couple years at least to achieve sufficient production capacity, and at that time a make upgrade will be in order for what will then be a ten-year-old model. So, eventually, but not worth waiting for.

PatientFool | March 13, 2018

@SpaceGhost I think that you're missing the fact that it is much smaller and has much less wind resistance at speed. Far more important then your #1 and #2.

SD Supercharger | March 14, 2018

PF-
SpaceGhost is correct--the main factors contributing to the M3 efficiency are weight and the PM motor. The coefficient of drag is similar on both models. My M3 uses 235 kWh/mile over the same route that my MS uses 365 kWh/mile. He is also correct that the PM most likely creates less torque and most likely will not go into the MS to replace the induction motor. Currently, The only real chance for more range is battery cell improvement. If you are thinking of a new MS purchase, be assured that some changes are coming---but not likely that we will see additional range.

SD Supercharger | March 14, 2018

S789-
How do you think they are planning to get 620 miles of range out of the Sportster? It clearly has a smaller footprint--- and most likely will used stacked battery packs. Since the M3 has 310 rated miles--I find it interesting that 620 is exactly double that number.

PatientFool | March 14, 2018

@SD Supercharger isn't the force of drag which ultimately impacts your kWh/mile figure dependent on three factors? Drag coefficient, size of the vehicle, and speed of the vehicle. You're only talking about 1 of those 3 factors and ignoring size..

I don't discount that there is an impact by the weight and motor factors but would think that'd matter more for low speed city driving then highway driving. On highway (which is most of my miles and anyone who commutes or takes trips) i'd expect wind resistance to be hands down the main factor and the 3 has both a worse drag coefficient *and* is a larger vehicle.

btw, how do you average 365kWh/mile on your S? I don't even see that on 40 degree heavy rain days at 70mph. Most days I hover around 300kWh/mile.

PatientFool | March 14, 2018

btw, i wouldn't be surprised if the base model S sees a bump in range via a larger pack but agree the 100 is probably not going anywhere.

inconel | March 14, 2018

PatientFool if you average 300kWh/mile you can drive 1/3 mile with a fully charged 100 battery ;-)

milesbb | March 15, 2018

Musk always has another lever to pull when demand decreases. Demand will decrease for the model S when the $7500 tax credit gets cut. I believe the tax credit will be cut to $3,750 July 1. Shortly after you will see something to stimulate sales. It is possible a larger battery capacity will be available to offset this July headwind. The 18650 battery continues to get better. Tesla has stated it improves by 7% /year. Two years after the 100kWh battery pack release, battery improvements should make a 115 kWh available. I think it is possible a longer range model S will be available within the coming year.

PatientFool | March 15, 2018

rofl opps :-). I'm just going to go in my corner and stop posting for a while..

Tropopause | March 15, 2018

I'm averaging 355 Wh/mi on my 2017 S. My 2014 S averaged 300 Wh/mi. I drive both the same.

SamO | March 15, 2018

2013 S60 averaged 300Wh/m.

2017 Model 3 244Wh/m and I've definitely been doing a lot more 0-60 take-offs for friends and Tesla-curious. Four and ~ a half seconds isn't Ludicrous fast, but it beats 99.9% of the world's cars in real-world driving. (*track visits excluded)

As far as the OP is concerned, Tesla was pretty clear about the "near-term" in the last earnings call. The form factor for increased range with 20700 would require a complete redesign for S/X.
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TeslaTap.com | June 23, 2016
A cell size change is a major vehicle re-engineering effort for the S and X. Just a few of the things that may need to be done:
1) New pack electronics to monitor fewer batteries and provide battery balancing (currently 16 boards per 85/90 pack). [DONE! See Model 3]
2) New battery heat/cooling system to deal with higher capacities. It's likely a 100+kW pack will need more cooling/heating, so perhaps a larger radiator, larger AC compressor, and larger heating element. [DONE! See Model 3]
3) Entirely new piping within the battery for cooling/heating. [DONE! See Model 3]
4) Contactors (4?) may need to be larger to handle the higher power. [DONE! See Model 3]
5) HV wiring may need to be larger for higher power. [DONE! See Model 3]

[Answers in brackets] - Bottom line, Model 3 has done most of the engineering necessary. Tesla just has to decide to turn a lever of demand.

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/18650-cells-20700-cells-will-mean-...
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Which if necessity is the mother of invention, demand is at least a cousin.

Right now, on every metric, Tesla is production constrained. That doesn't say much for Tesla's ability to nominally ramp production of S and X. (Nor cold comfort to 500,00 Model 3 line waiters). But the approaching tax credit phase-out in the US coupled with statements from Tesla that S and X batteries are sourced from Panasonic, under previous production contracts and that this was only~25% elastic, says that S and X redesign seems a fait accomplis.

But timing, with Tesla, is always key. I'd guess ramping 3 production is more important RIGHT NOW than completing S/X re-engineer. I'd guess, earliest end of 2018.

But it won't matter if it's later because Tesla will not be able to meet demand by that date. It would be better if they could go faster, but they are going as fast as they can. And faster than everyone else. By a lot. Just (almost) never as fast as they predict, given optimal conditions.

Key employee departures don't help. As one example, piles of $s and shares have been thrown at every Tesla Autopilot team member and Autonomy startups have received eye-watering valuations without a product nor a path to market. Those departures leave temporary voids. Those voids have caused delays. Was Tesla wrong that they could have reached their goals without those key departures?

Will Tesla do (fill in the blank)?

The only real answer is. . . soon.

PatientFool | March 15, 2018

My guess is that If/when the tax break expires, they'll drop the 75 entirely and just sell the 100 at around the same price as the 75.

SD Supercharger | March 15, 2018

PF-
I drive a lot on hilly sections of SD (avg 365)--flat highway driving I average 300. Hills make a huge difference in energy usage.

Samo-
I get the engineering part, but what do you think about the difference in torque/power from the M3 PM vs. MS induction? Others are also somewhat concerned about motor longevity. Although the M3 is quick, it does not compare to the the torque I get out of the P85.

Bighorn | March 17, 2018

Couple things:
Similar coefficients of drag don’t tell the story because drag is dependent on frontal area as well. I suspect this is the major contributor to increased efficiency.

The full tax credit will likely persist until Sept 30 or Dec 31.

amareshvanga | March 17, 2018

more price cuts will come once the federal tax credit of 7500 dollars go away.They will make 100D as the base battery pack and get rid of 75D.Reduce the price 0f 100D little bit.Add more perks like upgraded interior etc. for not much cost to you etc.
I don't see higher battery pack coming anytime soon unless the demand for model S falls.If this happens then Elon is going to pull a surprise like what i said above and then introduce a higher range model S which can hit 400 miles.However this is still all a speculation