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"Yeah, sure"

"Yeah, sure"

While I remember where I was the afternoon of March 31, I don't remember when I was there. Someone posted that all you had to do is send Tesla an email and Elon can tell you exactly when you reached the head of the line.

{Thanks for reaching out to Tesla Inside Sales! We do not have the exact time of your reservation however, we do have you listed for 3/31/2016. If you are asking because of the invitation, you should be receiving the invitation by the end of this month as we are working through everyone who placed it on the same day as you.}

Yeah, sure. If they produce 10,000 cars this month, they will certainly be able to get out invitations to all line waiters - and the assigned serial number will be 50,XXX.

Please pardon me if I sound overly cynical. I have toured over 10 European auto factories, and I have learned at least "some" idea of the difficulties of getting production lines installed, up and moving. And it is probably even harder to get the suppliers designing & delivering the right quality and quantity at the right time. And don't forget training the workers.

burdogg | April 3, 2018

Beagle - don't forget that day one line waiters equal around 115,000 - and that is world wide, not just US.

Next, there are many that are waiting for AWD, white interior, standard battery, non-pup etc.... So there are plenty of deferrals of those in the US.

We ran the numbers in another thread and came to the conclusions ourselves that they have got to be getting closer to inviting all line waiters. My guess (you know, get what you paid for) is one or two more round of invites will catch most the rest of line waiters.

burdogg | April 3, 2018

I should say - all line waiters in the US. Of course opening up Canada may throw some wrenches into my thoughts...

socaldave | April 3, 2018

Tesla is currently issuing VIN's in the low 10xxx's. If they produce 10,000 cars this months, VIN's issued will be in the 50xxx's.

~checks the math~

~converts in and out of metric (I'm Canadian, go with it))~

Ummmmmmm... no?

Look - everyone who reserved in-store on reveal day and doesn't have an invitation to configure is hyper-stressed and angry. I don't blame you, at all. Embrace the cynicism, revel in it, even, but remember - the quality of the cars (fit and finish, software updates, EAP improvements, etc) is improving steadily. You'll likely not be waiting much longer, and by the time you get your car in early June (don't hold me to that!!!), this thread will be a distant memory and you'll be in love with your new car.

Frank99 | April 3, 2018

As of today, Tesla has invited about half of all March 31 non-owners to configure. There are two good resources:
The Model 3 invites Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1egcRTNt_qWpLTeyJASgQ3WoLqTZUXnGQ...
(Look on the "invites" tab) and the crowd-sourced Model 3 Delivery Estimator 2.0:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rKDw72FOIMmSY8wBVl0ECjAjwYV9shlv...

If it helps, I believe that all the March 31 reservations will be invited by the end of this month...

sroh | April 3, 2018

@burdogg, as I've mentioned in other threads, I sure hope you are right.

But the numbers don't add up IMHO. I know for example that another poster who was in line with me in San Jose just received his invite during the last batch. He made his reservation around 11am and was around #200 in line. I made my reservation around 1pm and was around #650 in line. There were still 100-200 people behind me. So I think there are still 300-400 remaining from SJ alone. Many of these made two reservations (I did for a friend). Call it 500 reservations from SJ alone. I understand stores in this neck of the woods received more per store than other parts of the US, but still, there have to be 10s of thousands of line waiters still in the queue.

Whether the invites to Canada are due to delaying 200,000 until July or it's because it's due to delivery center bandwidth, I don't see how we're all going to receive our invites by the end of the month. I sure hope I'm wrong.

@socaldave. I like your way of thinking about this. In a few months time, I'm sure all of this will be a distant and forgotten memory and I'll just be loving my new ride!

DCM876 | April 3, 2018

Frank, while I follow your logic on "As of today, Tesla has invited about half of all March 31 non-owners to configure..." I do have to wonder how representative that spreadsheet is. If only because it seems like the pressure has been on this forum has been to put your information in one you are invited. So I wonder if this skews the invited share higher?

burdogg | April 3, 2018

Yeah it is all speculation and just going off my spidey senses and those rough figures we ran in that one thread - but as I stated in that thread too, we just made up numbers we "thought" so really hard to say.

I will agree, while seeing everyone else around you get invites and cars delivered makes it really frustrating, give it 3 months and you will have totally forgot and be driving probably a better car than those of us with early delivery/VINS. Not that my car is bad, but the software is constantly being updated and improved on. :)

DCM876 | April 3, 2018

FWIW, I was an online reservation (the moment available) and I have a delivery estimate of Mar-May right now. Let's assume (obviously not true) that I was the first online reservation (equivalent to last line waiter), that tells me that as of the last update to estimates (January/February) Tesla thought they would ramp fast enough to get through all line waiters wanting first production pretty quickly.

teslu3 | April 3, 2018

Nope, this day 1 in-store (Costa Mesa) reserve is not stressed nor angry while waiting for the invite. The parking lot outside regularly has 2 Model 3's outside. Both owners very pleased with their 3's; one had a trivial software issue the other no issues at all. If quality improves when I finally get mine all the better! Mar-May estimate now seems to be an estimate of late April order and late June delivery. Soon will have to finish finagling finances for final frenzy at delivery.

ReD eXiLe ms us | April 3, 2018

"Wait... What pregnancy? Cravings? Gas? Incontinence? Who cares? Labor -- what's that? Look at this baby -- she's beautiful! My God, we should make more!"

Amnesia exists as a necessity for the benefit of the species.

ebmcs03 | April 3, 2018

@Frank... including day one online reservations?

Beagle | April 4, 2018

Folks, I don't often eat dead crow, but I will admit that sometimes it tastes good. I would love it if this were to be one of those times.

I think our March-May estimate is the third we have gotten, and this one has been in place for quite a while. It may even be good. My guess is production around 10K this month. Can it be doubled in May? This would a total production of M3s in the low 40Ks by the end of May. I think the generally accepted number is 100-110K people standing in line two years ago. I am no math wiz, but these numbers don't add up too well using my paper and pencil.

I don't think there is any doubt that people getting later cars will get better cars, but how much better for how much later is an equation still to be solved. Unlike the origin of the universe. ;>)

burdogg | April 4, 2018

Beagle - as I mentioned earlier though - the 100,000-110,000 are WORLDWIDE. Right now they are only shipping to US, and just added some Canada in.

So that right there is going to drop your numbers, by a fair amount I might add - just look at the number of Model S and X that are oversees.

Then add on top of that, there are many waiting for AWD, White Seats, Standard Battery. So lets try to do some math.

Lets say 70% are in the US (and I do believe that is a very high number but a good starting point)
So 70% of 110,000 gives us... 77,000 Line waiters in US

Lest assume that 50% of those are taking the first production cars (so 50% are waiting for other options, like AWD, White Seats, Non-pup, Standard battery)
50% of 77,000 give us... 38,500.

Is that starting to look a little more likely? And yes, I just pulled numbers out of my head, but I dont' think they are really that unrealistic.

DCM876 | April 4, 2018

Beagle & burdogg - I'm not sure where 115,000 line waiters comes from? We know that when Elon finished his presentation at approximately 9 pm pacific, they flashed up total reservations was at 115,000 at that time. That includes an hour and half for online reservations, which I have to assume is a pretty significant amount when you consider how many people probably couldn't reasonably drive to a Tesla store. My shot in the dark estimate had always been about 70k line waiters, globally.

burdogg | April 4, 2018

DCM876 - I know - I am trying to error on caution but just to show that even with caution numbers, it is not as drastic as everyone wants to point out. I thought right at the first Elon had said there were around 80,000, but I have not been able to find it again, so don't know why my memory has that there - and that would have included some online ones too.

Either way, the numbers really do add up that it seems like 1st day line waiters are getting near the end of the invites - at least how I see it. I could be completely wrong though as it is all stabs int he dark and we have no real info to go on here other than that 115,000 which is at the end of the reveal and who knows from there, US vs elsewhere...

DCM876 | April 4, 2018

Right, I tend to agree with you that they're getting real close on US line waiters. But I'm also an online reservation, so clearly I have a dog in the fight. Maybe I should start being more pessimistic though so I can only be pleasantly surprised. Have to admit I have gotten antsy at times, and briefly thought about getting a bimmer, but then reminded myself that in a year when the new car buzz wore off I'd be pissed at myself for not waiting for the TM3

jordanrichard | April 4, 2018

Trying to figure out the logic of all this is like trying to figure out the logic of the OTA updates.

burdogg | April 4, 2018

@jordanrichard - say what, you mean you haven't figured out the OTA update logic? I thought everyone knew that one :)

johnyi | April 4, 2018

I'd be surprised if line waiters numbered more than 50,000. The CA stores were probably mobbed but I doubt the rest of the world had more than 250 per store on average. An hour and a half on line could easily add 65,000 lazy people like me worldwide before Elon showed that 115k number on screen.