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Factory handover of first Model X's Sept 29th

Factory handover of first Model X's Sept 29th

The man just tweeted

bobby | September 2, 2015

+1

"The man just tweeted" <---- This phrase made my day.

jordanrichard | September 2, 2015

That doesn't mean those will be the first deliveries. Those would be the first "Factory delivered" X's.

Reedmadd | September 2, 2015

The man specifically stated "First Production cars" delivered "from the Fremont Factory". No ambiguity there.

Reedmadd | September 2, 2015

Sorry. Handed over. Remember the Model S event? Just like that. Can't wait.

aesculus | September 2, 2015

I am sure those that can get to Freemont will go to Freemont to take delivery. Why wait a week or more for transport? I also suspect that Tesla knows who those people are by reservation address and after talking to them. For example in CA you pay your taxes by your residence versus where you pick up the car. Tesla has to ask that question and I know of at least one signature owner that provided that info to them when asked.

Who knows if Tesla will get a group of those first deliveries all at the factory the same day. Why not? Its a perfect opportunity to showcase the car and I would suspect founders and early sigs who can would love to be there.

dortor | September 2, 2015

barely Q3 - wow they are cutting it close - effectively they've missed their dates (like they always do) single digit deliveries of a car that no one can configure don't count in my book as "Meeting" Q3 delivery deadline - but others are welcome to disagree.

Ankit Mishra | September 2, 2015

Agree to disagree.

DTsea | September 2, 2015

Ok dortor. I disagree.

ken | September 2, 2015

The last time I checked the 29th of September was in Q3, therefore I disagree. And who says that it will only be single digit deliveries? They said September and it is September.

jordanrichard | September 2, 2015

So, Signature owners that live in CA are getting their cars first, regardless of their Res number........

dortor | September 2, 2015

as an investor and customer I'd like to see a more definitive success story - rather than pulling the corporate equivalent of a binge all nighter getting a "C" on the paper and saying see it was all ok…

it's technically Q3 and yet there will be deliveries, but it won't be in force, it won't be in-depth, and it's not a definitive statement that Tesla has their shit together…

I'm not saying it's not hard, I'm just disappointed that they are resorting to technicalities rather than definitively proving they can meet their commitments…

another metric would be how quickly they ramp - if by the end of october there is a decent flow of X's from the factory then whoop! if however it's still a trickle and they are still sorting production problems then the Q3 goal that they met will be a hollow victory.

vandacca | September 2, 2015

You guys are cracking me up. Tesla has pushed back that deadline so many times from Dec 2013 to Q3 2015, that I've lost count. Just a few months ago, it was Summer 2015 and technically they'll miss that by over a week. Now the deadline Q3 2015 and you make it sound like that's been the deadline from the beginning.

Anyway, here is some food for thought:
1.) Tesla is not likely shipping any Model-X vehicles to Signature reservation holders (and definitely not any to regular production reservation holders). These are all likely going to "Founders". So, I don't expect The Bonnie to be getting her Signature vehicle on the 29th, despite her being Sig #2, but I could be wrong.

2.) Tesla is likely shipping less than 30 vehicles on September 29, not a significant number.

3.) One could argue that these are not technically production versions, since Tesla has already admitted that their suppliers are not up to speed. Therefore, these cars will likely be using some low-volume parts made by Tesla, which will be different from the actual production run.

4.) I would guess that Tesla doesn't have the assembly line fully operational, so there is probably a lot of manual assembly (temporarily) being done to build these cars.

5.) Real deliveries are not expected until sometime in October and things will begin to ramp-up shortly afterwards. But I suspect that the ramp-up won't be as fast as originally predicted due to shortages from their suppliers. Elon has already mentioned that it's likely to happen on the last call. Remember him talking about Tesla being constrained from their least lucky supplier?

It's been my observation that Tesla doesn't normally succumb to investor pressures and deadlines, unless they are desperate (e.g. running low on cash). But they do appear to want to make this deadline for some reason (my guess is that they're running low on cash and/or to stop a swarm of reservations holders from asking for refunds), so they're pulling out all the stops to make it happen in "Q3". They can do that because they're still a scrappy little Silicon Valley start-up.

As a relatively recent TSLA stock holder who is "long" on the stock, I wish they didn't have to succumb to these silly pressures and release the vehicles when it was more economically feasible (rather than wasting human labour and money to make some arbitrary deadline). It's only going to reduce their gross margins, but I suspect that if they don't get these cars out there this month, there must be some other financial issue that will out-weigh the reduction in gross margins.

aaquino22 | September 2, 2015

Good to know. My question is who will be invited to the event? I say open it up to all reservation holders that can make it. Me +5 please!

georgehawley.fl.us | September 2, 2015

@Dan: picky, picky. :-)) Gross margins on the first 30? They can be anything. Who cares? 3Q15 has become symbolic. They put a stake in the ground and this time, by gum, they are going to make it happen, even if they have to stay up all night and use chewing gum and duct tape. The boat is going to be rocking for a while. They will probably have difficulties ramping up as fast as they would like for any of ten thousand reasons. The S numbers for the 3rd quarter will probably be off a little because of X overhang and distractions. If they can't ramp fast in the 4th quarter, the 50,000 number goes out the window, never mind 55K.

But I'll bet that the X will be favorably reviewed, even raves. And that will be enough to shore things up until they really get rolling in 1Q16.

Oh, and, if Sig. Reservations start going away, they will be more flexible in defining what constitutes a Sig. Everything is negotiable.

vandacca | September 2, 2015

George, yup, you're right. However, if the reason Tesla is putting that stake in the ground is due to financial reasons, having a mass exodus of Signature holders is going to be a significant drain on their bank account.

As a TSLA share holder, this concerns me. I'm seeing a lot of Signature holders talking about either deferring their reservation and/or cancelling it for various reasons, and I really don't blame them (I would do the same). I'm so happy that I decided to go with regular production.

I think Tesla put in too many restrictions with their Signature Series and this is going to potentially cause a mass exodus. People not wanting the 3rd row or preferring to have range over performance are likely going to bail. I think Tesla needs to relax the options for the Signature holders and provide more information in order to maximize the number that stay. Tesla should collect questions from their Signature holders and put out a FAQ with answers for everyone.

Unless their waiting list is really, really long, they may start regular production sooner than expected.

georgehawley.fl.us | September 2, 2015

@Dan: you have now uncovered the secret part of my "plan B", the disappearance of all Sig. Reservations. But there's still hope for Tesla. The company may have a few flaws but they are not stupid. A stampede of Sig. Reservations will simply cause the definition of a Sig. MX to become more flexible, shall we say? The difference between a Sig. X and a non-Sig. X could be as simple as a plate on the door frame with Elon's scrawl. Tesla has a history of awkward product introductions. But they always make it right in the end.

So far.

dortor | September 2, 2015

me sense the next 60-90 days are very very important for Tesla - based on what I'm reading and seeing this whole Model X thing could make/break the company - I think it could go sour much harder and much faster than anyone expects…

buckle up, cross your fingers and let's hope our Favorite company is up to the task -cause it's going to be a very bumpy ride.

vandacca | September 2, 2015

Yup! I agree with you @dortor. I have a feeling that Elon (and most of the Tesla team) are going to be pulling a lot of late nights. Not only that, but I suspect that Elon is going to be pivoting and making last-minute decisions non-stop for a month or two. Good thing they're still a small, scrappy start-up and are able to pivot quickly.

Red Sage ca us | September 2, 2015

There will be no souring. Only soaring. Watch.

eric.zucker | September 2, 2015

4 weeks elapsed time from config to factory pick-up? With one week before lockdown, leaves 3 weeks for production? Wow. At such an early stage, and even accounting for a limited set of options, it's a very impressive achievement.

Let's see when they open the pearly gates to the Design Studio to the next happy few, and how many are invited.

Ankit Mishra | September 3, 2015

They are fulfilling their deadline of the Q3 release. The ramp will definitely be slow but that is reasonable. Some people assumed that Q3 release meant straight on 10000 cars per month production. No new production is ramped up that fast because the 1st few batches have some problems which need to be sorted out.
Tesla has already given enough information to the signature holders. If a person want to judge the waters before they need to buy a thing, the front of signature list maybe not be the right place to be. The 1st delivery will include founders and the 20-30 signature holders so the rest of them are going to have a lot of info to make their decision.

johnse | September 3, 2015

I think the founders cars are already built and that 3 weeks from lock 'til deliver at the factory, i.e. no transit time, should be plenty. I recall reading that a Model S takes only a few days from start to finish of production.

Furthermore, most of the signature options are late-in-the-assembly items. The earliest of those is paint.

Elon's tweet may mean we won't see any until then, or it may set up a surprise unveiling of Founders models.

As for scaring Signature holders away... I don't think it really matters. They're going to sell all they can produce for at least the next 6 months, and while some may be complaining--I suspect most of the people who have had $40K on hold for that long are going to want their car as soon as they can get it.