Is Tesla a 100 bagger ROI for the Federal government and State of California ?

Is Tesla a 100 bagger ROI for the Federal government and State of California ?

Owners, investors, speculators and financial modelers for the present & future projections of Tesla's production:

1) How many direct & indirect jobs and payroll taxes has Tesla created at 20,000 manufactured cars a year ?
A) How many direct & indirect jobs & payroll taxes at 200,000 manufactured cars a year ?
B) How about 1,000,000 manufactured cars a year ?

2) Run the same for barrels of imported oil saved for 20k cars, 200k, 1 million cars made per year?

3) How much money does America save paying for these imports at each level of production ?

4) What did it actually cost the Federal government and State goverernment of California to get these new taxes generated by Tesla and will it be a 100 bagger ROI for the taxpayers of California and the U.S. government ? If so, at what point of production ?

*This does not count the state sales taxes paid when this money that was sent to the Middle East, now stays in the U.S. creating jobs and paying taxes, saving unemployment payments etc., etc.

holidayday | May 5, 2013

I do not recognize the term "100 bagger".

FLsportscarenth... | May 5, 2013

+1 holiday

TM will have a great ROI for the US and CA.

Hope the next Tesla factory in the US will be here in FL... Hey Elon - lower cost of living and payroll cost, employer friendly labour laws, no state income tax, lower electric rates, good ports and highways... Think about us for your east coast factory...

FL loves Tesla!

PorfirioR | May 5, 2013

I absolutely abhor when people pick out an obscure term to show that they are "in the know" and write an entire article around it.

Whether the original poster intended it, this post has turned into a discussion of what it means to be a 100-bagger and why we are not as smart as the OP for not knowing that.

When it gets to that point, readers feel inadequate (or insulted) and are immediately in the "who cares?" mode and don't bother with the point of the post - which is usually only adornment for the real point, being "I am smarter than you".

Normally, I would move on without posting a response. However, I enjoy reading this forum and, if you are coming here to stroke your ego, there are plenty of places on the internet that can help with whatever you want to stroke.

Teslation | May 5, 2013

On the " 100 bagger" definition question, I'm referring to how many times the government will get its investment back from Tesla. For reference here's a link where the term came from.

I changed the term a little bit from 10 bagger to 100 bagger because I think the government could get back 100 times it original investment back in Tesla over time.
I hope this helps.


There are no direct or indirect insults in my question. So why so hostile ? Are you really that insulted ? Really ? I look up definitions sometimes, it doesn't make me feel inadequate. I mean I can be accommodating to a point, but you should not try to suppress the free expression of ideas. And I shouldn't have to run ideas through you for approval. If you have no ulterior motives, or hidden agendas , then I can respect suggestions, not put downs.

Teslation | May 5, 2013

On the lighter side, celebrating the holiday of "Senior Citizens Day" officially on May 5th in the Republic of Palau. Now that I qualify, I think this will be my favorite holiday. Here's link of Palau holidays.

And here's where Palau is on the map.

Looks like a good climate, Island paradise. But it's BTW for now. so "Happy Seniors Day" a holiday we should have that holiday here in the U.S.

PorfirioR | May 5, 2013

I apologize for my post. I had just come from Seeking Alpha and other trading sites where they seem to make up jargon as they go, and I had done one too many internet searches already. I was "under the influence", so to speak, when I responded to you. That is really no excuse. I ended up perpetuating another one of my pet peeves and escalating a discussion to a personal level. I am sorry for my tone.

To bring myself back on topic, let me say that the benefits of companies such as Tesla and SolarCity go well-beyond the balance sheet, in my opinion. Some of it, you cannot put a price tag on. I am a veteran of both gulf wars and, without getting political, I will say that I often wonder what role our dependence on foreign sources of energy contributed to that conflict and the loss of life. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but, if it was just one life, just one of my fellow Americans, why aren't we doing more?

Then there are the obvious environmental impacts, and the fact that an American car company (a new one at that) has taken the technological lead among all the world's auto manufacturers.

Ok, ok, I understand the term 100-bagger better now.

FLsportscarenth... | May 5, 2013

@Holiday and Porfirio

It was confusing jargon so agreed, but I did not see anything personal or insulting


So must be a paper bagger rather then plastic bagger as TM is a 'green' company... hehe


Echos your point about people buying american. Stop funding terrorists and trade deficits! Buy Tesla, if you can not afford a Tesla yet, buy a Volt... At 70k or 39K new this is within range for many... Saw used 2 year old Volts on sale for 25k so american made EVs are not just for the wealthy anymore...

Would NEVER endorse a Prius or LEAF, will never buy Japanese again... They just do not last like american and German cars do and with better domestic choices available now it is simply unpatriotic to buy an import.

Teslation | May 5, 2013

First and most important, thanks so much for your service, you help keep all our freedoms safe for everyone. And this PotfirioR I like much better.

Seeking Alpha, yeah they can get pretty involved and intricate. I likes Benz latest post on a Tesla review, that stock analyst was very creative, yet explained his terms very clearly. I could learn a few things from his writing style.

On foreign oil dependence, no doubt about it, it's costing us lives, and it doesn't have to be that way. Every politician since Jimmy Carter has been promising to get us off foreign oil. It's really frustrating when our politicians don't cooperate and solve important problems like this that our country faces. If the politicians had to fight the wars, you can bet we would have been energy independent a long time ago.

And your right, solar, renewables and other transitional domestic energy sources are all invaluable and available here. We need to stop sending money to the Arabs who turn around and give it to the terrorist. So, as you say, companies like Tesla are priceless way beyond their balance sheets, if they can help us do that.

I just hope the politicians can get their act together and work together to solve these problems.

Brian H | May 6, 2013

Investopedia suggests a 10-bagger is a once-in-a-lifetime find. A sidebsr link offers ""soccer mom indicator", what soccer moms discuss on the sidelines, supposed to show maximum penetration and hence a lagging indicator of peaking returns. But for a 100-bagger, it's probably a leading indicator of second-stage surging towards global dominance!

Teslation | May 24, 2013

As an update,

I'd say at the current 5,000 vehicles per quarter rate Tesla has created at least 5,000 direct/indirect jobs as of 5/24/13.

LONG TERM (10 to 20 years out 2023-2033)

Even if we allow thatTesla's green credits, 7500 a car credits, and any other GOV't assistance totals 5 billion dollars in U.S. GOV't assistance, (very conservative). I believe taxes paid back to the Gov't will be in the 50 billion dollar range from all the new jobs Tesla will create, and the taxes these new job holders pay, plus tax revenue from the spending from Tesla related jobs, tax revenue from oil money staying in the U.S., etc.

So that's a 10 to one return for the Gov't for their investment in Tesla. Just this one Gov't investment in Tesla will more than pay for any losses the GOV't suffered in their green loans EV program.

The GOV't will receive a 10 to 1 return (10 bagger) ROI (Return On Investment ) for their investment in Tesla.

graphite | May 24, 2013

I suddenly want to count the number of bags in my house. 3 or 4 reusable grocery bags... a roll of trash bags... some resealable freezer bags... I could count my backpack as a bag... I don't know if I should count my drawer of plastic bags for recycling (mostly from bread and other bagged food products) - but there's no way I'm getting to 100 without them... I suspect my ROI is negligible at best.

Teslation | May 24, 2013


Very creative. How about this,

1) How many bags of money do you pay the U.S. government ? With Tesla, they will be a little less empty.
2) How many bags full of our brave dead soldiers come home every year ? With Tesla, I believe there will be a
few more of those empty bags as well

The moral is sometimes an empty bag is not necessarily a bad thing.

Unless your investing of course. For initial investors, I think Tesla will be a 10,000% percent return on your money, if you prefer that phrasing.

I'll keep updating, with more ways the Governments investment is paying off as Tesla production keeps ramping.

Maybe Tim Cook and Apple mgt should use this "Total Tax Revenues Generated Throughout The Economy" method next time they get hauled into congress. I think it's very powerful.

And by the way, if you look at the boxes, trash bags, sandwich bags, recycle bags are sold in units of 25, 50, 100 etc, so you probably have 100 empty bags in your house easily. And if all that's a metaphor for your portfolio, I hear ya , had my share of losses in that too!

SamO | May 24, 2013

If average vehicle price (AVP) is $90,000 and 10,000 sell in CA 2013 @9% sales tax

+$81,000,000 in sales tax revenue to state of CA.

Then add in Tesla CA employee income tax.

3,000 Jobs with average wage $60,000 = $16,200,000 CA Income tax

Total benefit to CA 2013 = ~$97,200,000

The Federal Gov't provides a $7500 tax credit for 20,000 sold nationwide =

-$150,000,000 forgone tax revenue to U.S.

+$20,000,000 already paid in interest and penalties on ATVM loan.

Total cost to U.S. = -$130,000,000

ZEV Credits are income from OTHER automobile manufacturers required in reducing tailpipe emissions and not paid by the state or federal gov't.

SamO | May 24, 2013

20,000 cars/year @15,000 miles per year (average mileage driven per car in U.S.) = 300,000,000 miles/year

@25mph (average new/used U.S. fleet) = 15M gallons of gasoline NOT IMPORTED x $4/gallon =
$60,000,000 in gasoline savings.

100% of which is locally produced i.e. NOT IMPORTED

Cumulative Fuel Saved, if Tesla doubles production from 25,000 - 400,000

2013 $60,000,000
2014 $180,000,000
2015 $480,000,000
2016 $1,680,000,000
2017 $5,020,000,000

Teslation | May 24, 2013

Let's not forget overseas sales. Every time someone buys a Tesla instead of a BMW , Mercedes, etc. overseas, that's total new money to our economy that did not exist before. Now overseas buyers are contributing to our U.S. taxes and reducing our debt from Tesla Corp's foreign sales. So balance of trade and exports are improved.

Tesla factory employees also pay property taxes locally through either their homes or through their landlords in the form of rent payments that pay apartment land and property taxes.

Tesla Ca factory employees now have a job instead of collecting unemployment or doing a 30k/yr job. At $60,000 per Tesla factory job, that's at least a net gain of $30k more per factory worker going into the local Ca economy through those salaries .

SamO | May 24, 2013

Elon said sales 50%US, 50% Rest of World, China "wildcard

Exports 50% revenue:

2013 $1.125B
2014 $2.25B
2015 $4.5B

Some money will be spent locally, offsetting spending. Assume manufacturing is in the U.S.