Given the FUD going on about Tesla right now, I dropped in on the Bloomberg site that tracks Model 3 production. Here's the latest:
1) The number of registered VINs -- Vehicle ID numbers handed out by the government for new production -- is now well above 400,000. Even better, Bloomberg reports that cars registered are now sporting VIN #s in the high 300 and 400,000 range. Most of the higher ones are in the US. There is a gap between the lasted cluster and the last, but this is normal. I suspect those will fill in as European deliveries.
2) At the end of Q1, Tesla had cumulatively sold 218,613 Model 3s. As of 5/21/2019, Bloomberg estimates Tesla has now delivered 263,428 M3s, an increase of 44,815, slightly over 6,000 weekly.
3) If current production holds Tesla will deliver 6,000 x 13 = 78,000+ M3s in Q2. Tesla delivered 62,950 M3s in Q1. In Q4 of 2018, Tesla delivered 61,394 M3s. Bloomberg cites these a production numbers, but Tesla tends to make the vast bulk of its cars after receiving actual orders.
4) Nobody knows what is going on with the Model S or Model X in Q2, at least they're not talking, but the refresh has to be adding to what was a disappointing first quarter. I'm of the opinion that most knew a refresh was in the works for both models and were waiting for those to be announced before purchasing of new S or X. What I was doing. I'm ordering a new X with longer range than my current 90D this fall.
6) IOW, another dismal quarter like the last is unlikely unless the bottom falls out of the global economy. Unfortunately, most of the signs don't look good at all on that front. Lots of numbers point to a global economy that is already noticeably slowing.
7) About the FUD, what we don't hear about is that ICE manufacturers are being hammered. Remember when the yoyo's with drones were looking for Teslas squirreled away in parking lots as proof the company was making cars that weren't selling? Next time you hear that, tell them to fly their drones over lots owned by ICE manufacturers. What they'll find are hundreds of thousands to vehicles ICE dealers have no room for because their lots are already packed with cars that aren't selling.
Just something to remember under the current FUD blizzard.