Forums

It just really dawned on me

It just really dawned on me

It may not occur to those who have never driven a van or pickup truck, but if you have, (as a Tesla owner) you know that when the Cybertruck and Rivian hit the market, ICE trucks will be totally extinct within a decade. I only say a decade because of production limitations. The difference in drivetrain efficiency and performance will be greater than it is in passenger cars.
I guess it took a week of hunkering down for this revelation to hit me.

shonn.burton | March 27, 2020

Welcome to the future! I can only hope that ICE vehicles of all kinds become extinct within the next decade, but especially trucks!

TeslaTap.com | March 27, 2020

@shonn - No need to hope - it will happen as the market will quickly understand how much better EV trucks are for 98% of applications. Tesla has already destroyed the ICE competition in every market it competes. As battery costs keep going down, EVs will move into every auto segment and destroy each ICE segment they compete in. Few automakers seem to understand how quickly this is going to occur.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 27, 2020

I find it amusing that the fish, who expresses dismay with topic drift, has routinely started injecting politics into most threads. Beware taking voting advice from someone who fails to run two brain cells together to form a cogent thought.

CRAIGJFIFTY3 | March 27, 2020

M-A-B-MCMXXX1980: unfortunately, politics injects itself into everything.
I have always felt that ICE trucks were extremely wasteful and inefficient compared to cars in general. When the diesel bros test drive, or just ride in, an BEV truck, it’s game over for ICE trucks and big oil.
If I had a use for the Cybertruck, I’d get one. As it is, I’d like to trade up to the Y, but it would be a little more than I’d like to spend. I’ll just have to stick with my poor little M3 LR RWD.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 27, 2020

CJ3 “ unfortunately, politics injects itself into everything.”

Maybe, but el pescado is doing it aggressively. I suspect it’s a new troll tactic. His previous ones are failing so bring out the old standby.

ksrehman | March 27, 2020

Nothing has made me more aware of vehicle pollution than riding my bike and being stuck behind an ICE vehicle at a stop light. I stopped behind a semi truck with no trailer and as well as fumes heading my way, the diesel exhaust was dripping nasty brown liquid on the pavement. Even the OG Leaf with its small battery is a vast improvement. Bring on good EVs in all categories from city car to semi!

lbowroom | March 27, 2020

Fish just thinks that will be the biggest bomb he can drop to get people to argue with him. He just wants turmoil. There there fishy, good boy.

Xerogas | March 28, 2020

@CRAIGJFIFTY3: another great chance for the world to learn about exponential growth, in a much nicer way than we are today.

IPhone launched with 0% mobile phone dollars, and they all laughed
...then it hit 1% a year later, and they still laughed “look at the little baby, with only 1%”
...then 2%
...then 4%
...then 8%
...then 16%

I read a great disruption article that said if a product hits 1% displacement of old-guard product, then hits 2%, you can already see the disruption will be 100% exponentially. And was it Warren Buffett who said that if teenagers are excited about it, then it will be the new leader within a generation.

noleaf4me | March 28, 2020

I agree Xerogas -- but with transportation it will simply take longer as the infrastructure needed and the product longevity does not lend itself to a quick transition. Yea it will happen and it can't be soon enough -- but sadly a decade from now we will still see significant ICE vehicles being sold.

gmr6415 | March 28, 2020

The hold up will be utilities, elected officials and manufacturers working together to ramp up the grid to handle the increased need for capacity. History shows us that such undertakings move at a glacial pace in the US. We've been talking about the need to upgrade the "grid" for decades. and in reality nothing has been done on a large, nationwide scale.

Electrical storage will be a problem too. Consider, simply for example, every time PG&E shuts off the grid "for safety reasons". No one can charge their car. You wouldn't want to be stuck in an area with a forest fire headed your way and a low SOC on your car with the grid shut down. Even most people with solar don't have the capacity to charge when the grid goes down. Almost all inverters shut down when there is no sine wave on the grid. You need either your own back up batteries and and AC coupler and/or a generator or something like Tesla Walls to be able to charge.

Back up storage will be essential and very few people, utility companies and/or governmental bodies are considering it. Less are doing it.

100 or more years ago when automobiles were flooding the market and the gasoline delivery infrastructure wasn't adequate people carried gas cans full of gas in their cars to get them to the next gas station. Carrying around a spare battery isn't doable.

Then comes charging stations. Sure most people can charge at home, and most driving is close to home. I live in a county that's one of the largest counties in Florida and there are only two public charging stalls in the entire county. There are a handful of destination chargers. Have you ever seen a GM charging station? How about a Jaguar charging station? Or an Audi charging station. Tesla has built an infrastructure for their customers. I may be wrong but most if not all other manufacturers are depending, relying on private enterprise to build the charging stations for electric vehicles so drivers can charge while on the road. That will be a huge hole in the needed infrastructure as EV production ramps up.

Infrastructure will be the problem more so than production limitations on the vehicles themselves.

WW_spb | March 28, 2020

Fish found new trolling material. He blames government for lack of interest in EV's by legacy company's while Tesla can't make EV's fast enough to sell.

WW_spb | March 28, 2020

World class moron bought EV with long commute and no home charging than complains to no end about Chargers and range problems.

WW_spb | March 28, 2020

Village idiot has army of boot lickers that run wild with anti Tesla narrative at the same time claiming they are green deal fanatics. Makes sense .... Not

kevin_rf | March 28, 2020

If you use camp mode, it can dawn on you every morning

lbowroom | March 28, 2020

Yes, fish’s narrative is that EV’s are necessary but buyers have to make a sacrifice to get one. He invents a divide and drives a wedge between EV and non EV owners. It’s very clever marketing against EV’s while claiming to be a proponent. The car is simply the best car in its price range

Tronguy | March 28, 2020

Public Service Announcement:

FISHEV is a known troll of several years standing and several user names who pushes an anti Tesla narrative. Please take his opinions with a grain of salt, avoid any advice he may suggest, and do not let him implant any Fear, Uncertainty, or Doubt about Tesla or your car into your own opinion.

As to whether FISH actually owns an EV at all: As they used to say in the Usenet days: "Objection! Facts not in evidence!"
Nobody reliable has ever actually met FISH, observed his/her/its car, and reported back. The one who claimed to was, in retrospect, an obvious sockpuppet which swiftly deleted its own post on the subject.
There's some fairly good evidence that FISH posts under different names in the forum and some others, possibly related, do as well. Remember: FISH's apparent goal is to disrupt the forum by hijacking threads by monopolizing the threads and pushing FUD. Best thing to do: Ignore it, it's probably a bunch of K-street paid influencers.

billstanton | March 28, 2020

Disregarding fishies and getting back to utilities, are there regulations forbidding utilities from setting up their own charging stations? Seems like that is their business to sell electricity, why not at a charging station instead of a home? Is it too far off from their current regulations? Can a utility spin off a subsidiary like Google and Alphabet or HP and their printers? Is there a more informed reader out there? I don't quite see that twist on it when I perform charging station searches.

Tronguy | March 28, 2020

@billstanton: Interesting point. Turns out that in a number of states, for some bizarro reason, one actually has to be a registered public utility company to sell energy by the KW-hr. New Jersey is one of those places; I believe Massachusetts is another. As a result, in those states, Tesla charges by time rather than by the amount of energy, although they charge one number for, I think, below a 60 kW charge rate and another for above a 60 kW charge rate; the higher charge rate costs more.
There was a recent ruling a couple-three months back by a governmental agency in California that, just like a gas station has to post the cost for gas in dollars per gallon, electric charging stations for cars in Cal have to post the cost in dollars per kW-hr. This was aimed straight at the Electrify America types who were charging $RANDOM, hard to decipher amounts for energy, sometimes topping $1 per kW-hr, if memory serves. The side blast got Tesla, in that they have to retrofit their stations to actually display the rate per kW-hr and, if memory serves, the total cost of a charging session.
Saying this carefully, Tesla's Superchargers charges roughly double the $0.13 per kW-hr residential rate; Tesla has repetitively said that that doubled cost pays for (a) more superchargers, (b) energy, and (c) maintenance, and that they're not trying to make a profit on the deal. My guess as regards public utilities and why they don't do it: They don't want to get involved in the maintenance and all, it's not their field of expertise.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 28, 2020

“ There was a recent ruling a couple-three months back by a governmental agency in California that, just like a gas station has to post the cost for gas in dollars per gallon, electric charging stations for cars in Cal have to post the cost in dollars per kW-hr.”

There was, but they can still add ancillary time-based charged on a separate line item, so such vendors will likely merely revise their pricing accordingly.

shonn.burton | March 28, 2020

Wow this is like the 5th or 6th thread I've read through today and you donkeys just crap in every single one of them (you know who you are). If you are not going to contribute the conversation started by the OP then stay off the thread! Why don't you guys just go start a "Donkey Show" thread and keep all your ridiculous back and forth outside of everyone else's thread! Jeez! Doesn't this forum have moderators?!?

Magic 8 Ball | March 28, 2020

@shonn

Calling others here "donkeys" and talking "Donkey Show" makes you just as bad if not worse.

Lonestar10_1999 | March 28, 2020

Back to the original subject.......

One of the most most distinguishing differences between an EV truck and an ICE truck is with fuel availability. With EV you bring the vehicle to the charger. With ICE, you have more flexibility; either drive the vehicle to the gas station or transport gas to the vehicle.

Naturally every situation is unique but with infrastructure and charging technology as it exists today, the ICE truck is more versatile than the EV truck. So unless EV infrastructure and changing technology improves, there will be a need for ICE trucks.

TeslaTap.com | March 28, 2020

@gmr6415 - "The hold up will be utilities..."

No, they can handle 50% of all vehicles being EV today without any changes. EVs charge overnight, when there is huge excess capacity. On top of that, more and more homes are adding solar, as another means to charge EVs and creating less demand on the grid. By the time EVs reach 50% of vehicles, solar will easily handle the needs going to 100% EVs.

@gmr6415 - "Electrical storage will be a problem too. Consider, simply, for example, every time PG&E shuts off the grid "for safety reasons". No one can charge their car. "

It is far less of a problem for EVs than ICE cars:

1. Most EV owners charge the car every night, so in the morning they always have a full charge. ICE cars are lucky to have an average of a 1/2 tank at any one time - and perhaps a lot less.

2. Many EV owners also have solar. With the right system, you can go indefinitely without utility power. Not possible in an ICE car.

3. In the worst case, say an ICE with 1/2 tank and an EV with 50% SOC, and the power goes out - perhaps due to fires, neither car can be fueled if you don't have solar or battery backup. The ICE gas stations require power to pump gas so ICE cars may be worse off.

In a fire, the last thing I'd want to be driving in is a vehicle with many gallons of explosive fuel. While not a comprehensive analysis, all the cars I've seen burned on the road after the CA fires look to be ICE cars. I didn't see any Teslas - so they must have gotten out without a problem.

I'm not saying EVs are perfect, but the scenarios you state are great for EVs and risky for ICE.

andy.connor.e | March 28, 2020

I think the cybertruck is going to set a new standard simply because of the design and not even the fact that its electric. The ultrahard stainless steel is a game changer. Its essentially dent and scratch proof, rust proof, no paint maintenance. From a resource perspective, this is how cars should be made. To last a LONG time. Imagine if you needed a brand new house every 20-30 years.

shank15217 | March 28, 2020

COVID-19 is showing the world what it looks like to have an ICE free future.

WW_spb | March 28, 2020

I am so pumped for CyberTruck. It can't come soon enough so all my friends will cry how ugly it is and it is still gonna be bad ass and I know in the back of their minds they will secretly love it too.

Magic 8 Ball | March 28, 2020

FISHEV is an EVIL hypocrite who makes spinning anti-Tesla rhetoric on this forum a full time occupation.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 28, 2020

@t-tap:

" ICE cars are lucky to have an average of a 1/2 tank at any one time - and perhaps a lot less."

I don't understand this comment. Surely the median tank is 1/2 full, no?

jallred | March 28, 2020

Most people use a significant portion of the tank directly after filling up. That means it is rare for full tanks to be sitting around. Also, some people don’t always fill all the way up because of the cost.

WW_spb | March 28, 2020

I don't want another Leaf Fish. That Bolt ugly for real and not in the right way too. But you should totally get it bc model 3 doesn't really work for you, ya know

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 28, 2020

jallred | March 28, 2020
Most people use a significant portion of the tank directly after filling up.

Where do those statistics come from?

I would still estimate that taken over the enormous population of vehicles, the median tank approaches 50%.

FISHEV | March 28, 2020

WW_spb | March 28, 2020 I don't want another Leaf Fish.

That's why I recommended Chevy's Cyber EV in the pick. The similarities to the Tesla Cyber Truck are eerie.

Magic 8 Ball | March 28, 2020

FISHEV is a disgusting EVIL TROLL.

Red Sage ca us | March 28, 2020

Lonestar10_1999 intoned, "So unless... [Blah, blah-blah, blah, BLAH...], there will be a need for ICE trucks."

No. There won't.

Magic 8 Ball: Yes. FEESHICE is EViL.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX: I know people who haven't filled a tank' with gasoline for forty years. They would consider it a 'waste' to 'spend so much money' on gas at once. Thinking, "What if I fill up, and the car breaks down? All my money would be lost!" These are the people who don't actually understand the concept of range, percentages, or any comparison that involves Third Grade arithmetic. So, the only metric they'll ever quote, upon running out of gas once more, is... "I just put five bucks in it the other day!" Yes. These are people who typically consume copious amounts of alcohol and tobacco on a daily basis, as they have done since circa 1976, and have never calculated their daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annual expenditures on either. So, yes, they are rather brain addled, stuck perpetually somewhere between fourteen and sixteen as they were in the mid 1970s, in terms of their view of the world.

WW_spb: My goal is to make my CYBERTRUCK available to the local County Elementary school for perusal by Third, Fourth, and Fifth Grade Science classes at Show & Tell. ;-)

andy.connor.e: Agreed.

TeslaTap: Yep.

gmr6415: I live in a very backwards, depressed, retarded part of America. When I was a kid, forty-five years ago, this place was around 40 years behind the times. It was that way socially, politically, economically, anthropologically, and otherwise.

Today, it is 'only' behind by roughly sixty years. I attribute that advance to the coming of satellite television, mobile smartphones, and the internet. Otherwise, it would probably not have advanced much beyond 1940 here.

When I first got here, people were often living in 100+ year old ramshackle sharecropper houses. Most without indoor plumbing, that had only been wired for minimal electrical use in the preceding two decades. So, a circuit box with screw in glass fuses, one light on the porch, one light in the living room, one light in the kitchen, maybe, and one light at the back door, with no interior outlets at all. Rotary dial phones on a party line. Accesories like a clock, radio, or television were connected via adapters and extension cords plugged into the screw in light sockets. Naturally, most of those places burned down in the intervening 35 years since I graduated high school.

But the homes built in the last fifty years or so have grounded outlets with enough juice to run appliances like dishwashers, trash compactors, clothes dryers, air conditioning, electric stovetops, electric ovens, refrigerators, freezers, microvawes, and televisions. They could probably supply electric cars fairly well. And this is a place with 'infrastructure' comparable to circa ~1960 America.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 28, 2020

M-A-B-MCMLXXX: I know people who haven't filled a tank' with gasoline for forty years. They would consider it a 'waste' to 'spend so much money' on gas at once

weird. I’ve never talked to people about their gasoline habits :D
I have 3 gas vehicles. Unless I’m on a long drive I don’t let them get beneath ~3/4.

Red Sage ca us | March 28, 2020

M-A-B-MCMLXXX: Sorry. Just realized I had logged into my older account here using a spare phone. Oops!

I typically post as 'ReD eXiLe ms us' instead, for reference.

I once had a girlfriend who was eight years older than I. She had a habit of saying she had just 'put five bucks' in her car. I had a long conversation with her once explaining thet she should count the GALLONS added to her car instead of the CASH she spent. I explained it had been a long time since 1978 and that 'five bucks' wouldn't get her as much fuel or allow her to travel as far. She also frustrated me by looking at price tags and ignoring digits. To her $299 was, "Only two hundred bucks for these shoes!" She never seemed to understand my corecting her with, "No. After tax, that's over THREE HUNDRED BUCKS!" Idunno. It may have been an effect of the California school system that didn't allow people her age to catch certain nuances.

Californians don't seem to understand distance either. You ask them how far away something is... And they always tell you how long it takes to get there instead. "It's about a two-hour drive this time of day..." One of my Cousins would always swear that the trip to the park where we had our annual Family Picnic was a LONGER distance taking the route she recommended, by heading West from her Mom's house instead of driving due South to the Freeway.

M-A-B-MCMLXXX | March 28, 2020

“ Californians don't seem to understand distance either. You ask them how far away something is... And they always tell you how long it takes to get there instead.”

LOL! I resemble that (have lived in Southern California my whole life)

gmr6415 | March 29, 2020

@Red Sage ca us, "They could probably supply electric cars fairly well. And this is a place with 'infrastructure' comparable to circa ~1960 America."

Our family owns acreage in Northwest, AR very similar to what you describe. The state of AR lists it as a township because at one time it was a bustling logging town...Sandiff, AR. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sandiff,+Poff+Township,+AR+72153/@35.6478531,-92.2407188,6313m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x87d216b3362cbca9:0xa67022f5347e697e!8m2!3d35.6478549!4d-92.2232092 We have a hard time getting insurance on the property because of the fuse box that uses glass screw in fuses, and the cloth insulated wiring. The buildings are mostly late 1800s buildings. I'm aware of what you describe.

As EVs progress we will be seeing vehicles with 200kWh+ battery packs. Don't forget the near future proliferation of over-the-road semi trucks that will have battery packs much larger. In 2018, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,972 kilowatt hours (kWh), an average of about 914 kWh per month. Put 2 Evs in the driveway of the average home and you come close doubling that.

The US electrical grid will melt down long before that, and there is almost zero back up to cover for power outages. Look at the fact that Tesla not only builds "Walls" as back up but also builds solar panels and solar shingles. Notably Tesla clearly has the most advanced EV charging system in the world right now. How many Tesla charging stations currently have a back up to keep cars charging during power outages?

PhillyBob | March 29, 2020

I disagree with the original statement as I believe it is human nature not to change ..... Two points ...

1) Some people will never change .... Comments like ... "I have always owned Fords"
2) There will always be good sales people ..... Some of the worst looking cars lasted many years on the market because GM found a way of selling them.

To call these people stupid is unfair .... Maybe close minded or Ill informed

Love my Tesla and I keep smiling ....

noleaf4me | March 29, 2020

PhillyBob -- as the infrastructure for ICE begins to collapse - people will have no choice but to switch. Yea it will take a long while but it will accelerate likely 10 years from now or less. Gas will become way more expensive to distribute as economies of scale begin to crumble - same with parts for ICE engines & drive trains -- as fewer and fewer are made their costs will go up (and to opposite for BEV). So no matter how stupid or reluctant to change people are -- they will someday. Heck - I'm sure there were "AMC and Packard" people who said "I only drive......." but they too had to change (unless they want to drive a very old car every day)

Sadly what will accelerate it is Europe and Asia as they put in strict rules (and maybe CA and other CARB states as they make driving an ICE not worth it -- like not allowing them in the city center like some other foreign cities are considering). When companies like VW stop making ICE's because their biggest markets can't buy them-- the end is near...

WardT | March 29, 2020

My career was in the oil business and my wife convinced me to go solar with an EV. I find it interesting how appalling I find ICE vehicles after riding around in a Tesla. The huge conversion of liquid oil into our atmosphere, what could go wrong? I do think gasoline will get cheaper as demand drops. After all, the supply, demand, price curve is what the oil companies have been saying for years.

The other thing of change, bicycles. Recall when the way to save the Earth was to bicycle to work? Communities were planning bike paths and improving bike lanes on the city streets. I don’t think bicycling to reduce our dependence on oil ever really took off like many people hoped. EVs make “Bicycling to save the Earth” obsolete. Why peddle along when you can hop in your EV and “Save the Earth”? It is fine to go for a bike ride, but the idea of the future where bicycles replace vehicles is not needed any longer. Electric bicycles are cool.

PhillyBob | March 29, 2020

@Noleaf4me - I agree with everything you said .... I do agree with the acceleration. I think it would be safe to assume that most vehicles produced in 10 years would be EV. The comment that " ICE trucks will be totally extinct within a decade" was my point of disagreement.

FISHEV | March 29, 2020

gmr6415 | March 29, 2020 "The US electrical grid will melt down long before that, and there is almost zero back up to cover for power outages"

Green New Deal. Every rooftop gets solar panels, every building back up battery for 2 nights. Distributed utility level battery storage. Solar farms in high solar areas. Wind farms.

"South Australia's Tesla battery on track to make back a third of cost in a year"
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-australias-tesl...

It is so easy to do. The tech is there. I think it will one of Biden's big economic booster programs in 2021 to get the economy on track.

TeslaTap.com | March 29, 2020

@gmr6415 - Sounds like you've never owned an EV? The grid has plenty of power for EVs and the grid not going to melt down other than from forest fires. Even in a power failure, because my car is fully charged most of the time, I can easily drive anywhere I need, while my ICE neighbors could be screwed. No way to generate gasoline at home and ICE drivers are at the mercy of what gas they happen to have in the tank. No gas stations will be working either.

gmr6415 | March 29, 2020

FISHEV, "Green New Deal. Every rooftop gets solar panels, every building back up battery for 2 nights. Distributed utility level battery storage. Solar farms in high solar areas. Wind farms."

Obviously the only thing you've learned from history (in US politics) is that you haven't learned anything from history.

As I stated above the average household uses 914kWh per month. That's about 30kWh per day. Do you charge your car or run your house because 2 nights of backup wouldn't charge your car and run the house. Two electric cars and your really stuck.

Revenue always comes before the environment in every governmental body from city councils, to county commissions, to state houses and right on up into the US congress.

In August of 1992 Hurricane Andrew blew through South Florida leaving devastation in it's path. Some residents were without power for 6 months. Gasoline was almost impossible to find in the southern third of the state. Gas stations that had gas couldn't pump it because they had no power to run the pumps.

In 2004 three hurricanes cut across Central Florida in a matter of weeks:

August 13, 2004 Hurricane Charlie

September 5, 2004 Hurricane Frances

September 25, 2004 Hurricane Jean

We were without power accept a 6500 watt generator for 6 weeks. Again gas stations that did have gas couldn't pump it because they had no power to run the pumps. Finding gas for our generator became what we did most days until we got power back. The Florida legislature passed a law requiring gas stations on main highways and main arteries to have back up generators. The following year the legislature wrote into law exemptions to the legislation based on the cost to install generators.

In September of 2017 hurricane Irma walked it's way through Florida. People died in nursing homes and assisted living facilities because there was no power. The following year the Florida legislature passed regulations requiring all nursing homes and assisted living facilities to install backup generators. The year after that the legislature extended the deadline for the generators and put exemptions into the law because of the costs. Today, three years later 60% of Florida and nursing homes and assisted living facilities still don't have generators.

Our grandmothers and grandfathers dying and people being stranded without power for weeks at a time hasn't done anything to improve the grid over almost 30 years of devastating hurricanes in Florida. An influx of electric cars isn't going to change anything either in the next 10 years, and two days of backup batteries is like one person pissing in the ocean in order to raise the sea level.

gmr6415 | March 29, 2020

@TeslaTap.com, Obviously you've never lived in a state where natural disasters take out the grid for hundreds of square miles for weeks at a time.

Earl and Nagin ... | March 29, 2020

@WardT,
Cheaper electricity because of lower demand is more likely to accelerate EV conversion since marginal gas stations that are barely profitable will close down. This will make finding gasoline more difficult, especially in remote areas.

@gmr6415,
The car may hold 200 KWhr but that would provide over 800 miles of range. On average people only drive about 30 miles per day. That requires only about 8 KWhr of electricity per day, most of which is used at night, when the grid is very lightly loaded.
Also, you're missing that, with the 120v outlet on my simple solar system, I can add over 6 KWhr of electricity every sunny day if the grid is down. This will provide over 24 miles of driving per day. With a Tesla PowerWall, I can get over 20 KWhr per day for over 80 miles of driving per day without having to dangerously carry gasoline home in my car. Without gas stations with generators, a generator won't do much good. With a generator, I could charge my car just as easily as I can light my home.
Perhaps you haven't lived in a state where the sun shines?

TeslaTap.com | March 29, 2020

@gmr6415 - True - Here's in CA, I've only been without power for 3 days due to an earthquake, but others have had power loss for far longer due to fires or earthquakes.

That's one reason I went with a solar/PW/EV solution. I can run indefinitely without grid power. Perhaps we could not use the oven for 2 hours, but it really wouldn't be much of an inconvenience if we lost power for a month. I could still charge my EV and easily do basic errands off solar power. Now my system is not big enough to drive 400 miles every day, but with a long-term power outage, I wouldn't be doing a lot of driving anyway. None of the gas stations around us have backup power.

So different solutions for different areas and risks make sense. Thanks for explaining where you're coming from.

FISHEV | March 29, 2020

gmr6415 | March 29, 2020 I stated above the average household uses 914kWh per month. That's about 30kWh per day. Do you charge your car or run your house because 2 nights of backup wouldn't charge your car and run the house."

You may be confusing disaster planning with what a sustainable Solar/Wind/Battery grid looks like for day to day operations.

No 1 is for the house during the night and a two nights if cloudy days. Even cloudy days produce power. My worst day in a rainy March was 7kWh.

No. 2 is that while current homes are energy pigs, part of the Green New Deal is redoing for energy efficiency so they use much less energy. Ball park is that most older homes can be retrofitted to 15kW. Lowering the base load is part of the deal. Insulation, new windows, efficiency HVAC is also a jobs and industry maker to recover from recession.

No. 3 on the car charging also, assuming home charging, generating 8.32 MWh last year with energy efficient house gives me a decent surplus to charge car. My biggest commute day of 100 miles is 22kWh a day average. Less 15kWh for the energy efficient house leaves 7kWh for the car which is 32 miles with average commute 28 miles.

Again this is for a grid system not off grid so under normal circumstances the solar/wind/battery grid makes up any difference (which is very small load on the grid on day to day basis). We lower demand and we convert supply to solar/wind/battery grid.

When we have a loss of grid, which will be much less likely with distributed system and storage, then our usage can be adjusted also.

gmr6415 | March 29, 2020

@TeslaTap.com, I used to work for Western Branch Diesel Inc. One of the many things we did was design, build and install battery backups for whole buildings, backup generator sets and Peak Power distribution. Back in the 1980s we built a building for the City of Manassas, VA that contained 31 massive diesel generators that came online individually based on power demand to supplement their power station. It was cheaper building peak power generators than it was to expand their infrastructure. At the time it was one of the first in the US. It's been so long I can't remember the power rating of each unit.

I was with WBD for around 20 years. There was a building in Hagerstown, MD that had some relation to NASDAQ. It needed uninterrupted power 24/7. The entire building actually ran off batteries contained on two floors of the basement of the building. City power charged the batteries. In an outage the building could run for X amount of time solely off the batteries, but after that given time backup generators would charge the batteries.

These sorts of things and your situation are the exception, but the one thing I learned fast is that power companies don't build a lot of excess capacity. That's why many have lower rates during evening hours. They want homeowners to not use their high consumption appliances while businesses are open so they don't really need to build a full 24 hour capacity for their customers collectively...businesses get the bulk of the power in the day, homeowners use it in the evening and early morning.

We have 10kW of solar, but no AC coupler to produce a false sine wave for the inverter to see, so we can't run off grid and no back up batteries. In fact being able to run permanently disconnected from the grid is illegal in the state of Florida. There is one exception and that's No Name Key. There is no municipal power and no water and sewer on the island. Everyone is left to fend for themselves.

The fact that power companies are running with minimal infrastructure now is why I think, based on my limited experience in the field, the grid will be the problem, not the production of EVs.

CA is famous for brown outs. What would happen if let's say in the next two years everyone doubled their consumption of electricity. The grid would collapse...I don't mean physically. I mean it couldn't keep up. The power companies can't react fast enough. Their struggling to keep up with new development as it is.

Pages