Forums

Video: Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030

Video: Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030

Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - Oslo, March 2016

Tony Saba makes the case that no internal combustion vehicles will be manufactured after 2030. He identifies 4 core technologies that that are increasing exponentially and will disrupt the energy sector:

- Decreasing cost of battery storage
- Electric Vehicles
- Self-driving vehicles
- Solar PV

He predicts that "Car as a service" will reduce the vehicle fleet by 80-90% and that by 2030 instead of paying on average $12,000 per year to drive 12,000 miles, the average person will spend only $1,200. What will we do with all those parking spaces?

kevin | October 17, 2016

Video gives some insights on the value of the Tesla - Solar City merger

Red Sage ca us | October 17, 2016

The parking spaces will be 60% Handicapped accessible, because over the course of the next 15 years the last of the Baby Boomers will be over age 55 or 60 and nursing ailments caused by heart disease, high blood pressure, and diabetes from sea to shining sea.

danielpf | October 17, 2016

What will we do with the $10'800 left? It will be difficult to spend all this money only in clean products.

kevin | October 17, 2016

@ danielpf We'll spend the extra money on luxury virtual reality products. You heard it here first.

kevin | October 17, 2016

You see how Tesla fits into each of those 4 categories:

- Storage (batteries) with the Gigafactory
- Mass market electric vehicles with upcoming Model 3
- Self-driving cars with Tesla Vision and the Tesla Fleet, plus new Invidia graphics processors
- Solar Photovoltaic through new venture with Panasonic to build PV cells in Buffalo New York. (https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-and-panasonic-collaborate/)

carlgo2 | October 17, 2016

@Adanielpf: Difficult to spend $11K?

@Kevin: Well, today's news says Apple is giving up on EVs and concentrating on VR. Not sure what to look forward to there, what is in it for me. I kind of like reality as long as it doesn't suck.

McLary | October 17, 2016

Only the 12th time I've seen this posted.

Red Sage ca us | October 19, 2016

danielpf: What to do with the money? Here's a great answer...

'You're all aces in my book -- but I want the last check I write... to bounce." -- Carl Reiner as Saul Bloom, 'Ocean's Twelve' (2004)

Linemanap | October 19, 2016

I for one still hope there is an electric grid I need a job. This is no joke I don't know how electric companies are going to survive if everyone can just buy a Tesla/Solarcity combo package and be off the grid for less then their monthly power bill. It's going to be very interesting to see how power companies deal with this challenge to their monopoly

grega | October 19, 2016

A great video, thank you very much for posting it.

I do worry about managing the grid in an effective way if large amounts of people drop off it. Apartments, businesses, and many houses can't put up solar, so they need the grid and would have to pay more for it...

I think they need 3 rules for people sick of the energy companies.
1) You are not permitted to go off grid. But you can stop using and paying ANYTHING.
2) You are NOT permitted to use a gas generator. Get enough panels and batteries.
3) Any excess energy you have will be sent to the grid instead of wasted. $0.

That allows other choices if you pay for a grid connection. But ensures at least that you go 100% renewable, and uses the excess energy.

Red Sage ca us | October 19, 2016

Linemanap: In Arizona, Nevada, and Hawaii they have rushed to the State Legislature and complained that having as much as 2% residential takeup of solar power has overwhelmed the capacity of the grid. Then they demanded that they be allowed to assess fees on those homes to recoup their losses incurred from beefing up local power lines. The fees were just high enough to make sure that no one could even break even on selling electricity back to the utility. And they get away with it because of contracts with local municipalities that require a grid connection to get a Certificate of Occupancy within city limits. Oh, and you can only sell the electricity you generate on your own rooftop to the utility -- not to your neighbors.

brando | October 19, 2016

How will power companies react to individuals creating their own power and going off grid?

Look for new laws (could be added to your property tax?) Claiming all must contribute to the power grid to keep all Police, Fire, Schools, Hospitals, FEMA, Local/State/Federal government buildings reliable. You get the idea. Remember AZ adding fixed monthly fee for people with solar power?

That was exactly the rational they used (not all of AZ, as they have more than one power company, sorry I don't remember more details). How about Nevada? Didn't Warren Buffett do exactly that after he bought Nevada Power?

Socialism for corporations, capitalism (free markets) for labor.
Privatize Profits and Socialize losses.
Bail out banks and foreclose on home buyers.
You get the idea.

Red Sage ca us | October 19, 2016

brando: Continuing the trend...?

Fight 'WARS' in precisely the manner as to perpetually extend the conflict. Hence: The WAR on Drugs, WAR on Illiteracy, WAR on Poverty, WAR on Racism, WAR on Terrorism...

hmmm... Makes one think that maybe we should start declaring PEACE on things instead...

jirivok61 | October 20, 2016

OK. Great news. Super cheap and clean energy for all. In close future, solar power will be powering almost everything. (with a bit of some wind, geo-thermo, etc)
What if there will be some sunlight disruption - super volcano, nuclear war - just guessing - how the human race will alternatively power there being??? In case like this, it seems to be a way to human extinction.

Linemanap | October 20, 2016

Jirivok61 did you see the movie the matrix? In the event of loss of sun worldwide having power will be the least of our problems.

McLary | October 20, 2016

Yes we should all plan for the future based on The Matrix.

Linemanap | October 27, 2016

Nuclear power fossil fuel wind sea based wave power generators hydroelectric dams energy is every where