Tesla will make all other cars obsolete.
Watch the NASDAQ reaction.
I doubt that. I'll be keeping my other car for several reasons. When I hear something like this, I remember what my Dad said when I was little... That Delorean car from back to the future. Everyone was saying the same thing. Then they went bankrupt and no one could see one of those cars on the road any more. So nothing is a sure thing, but I will think that Tesla is going to survive. They just won't obsolete anything. Those other auto makers aren't just going to sit around and watch Tesla take away their business. ;-)
Self driving cars make no sense with an ICE car. So OEMs will have to adjust, and might have to restructure in order to do so. There are already signs of a sub prime leasing bubble and depressed resale values. This is how Julian Cox said it would happen in his presentation about Tesla being a disruptive technology.
Reasoning from analogy. Delorean failed therefore Tesla will fail. Does not follow. Tesla has 1.5 billion miles of autopilot sensor data. Collecting millions more miles every day. Compared to Google's fleet of 5 million miles of driverless data. Tesla has a large lead and everyone is playing catchup. Nobody (Kodak) is guaranteed to continue. See 2007-9.
Autonomous Tesla Network vehicles will be able to drive 50-100k miles per year, thereby replacing 5-10 cars. Or increasing their revenue 5-10X. Just depends on your perspective.
250M cars in the US. Tesla needs 10-20M cars to replace the entire infrastructure in the US. Maybe less due to low utilization rates.
But there is the WORLD and 3rd world is going to skip personal vehicle ownership in the same way that they are skipping land lines for cell.
AND . . . SPaceX is about to launch mini data satellites to disrupt worldwide data.
Lots of cool stuff happening that will benefit Tesla Motors, Vision, Network and Energy.
Uber's business model certainly will be obsoleted before it really takes off. That's why it has been putting so much (but still inadequate) efforts trying to develop its own self driving technology.
http://www.reuters DOT com/article/us-tesla-stake-tencent-holdings-idUSKBN16Z1FJ
China's Tencent now owns 5% of TSLA, is 5th largest shareholder.
Musk owns 21%
This really tells clearly who is visionary and who are just slow followers. Not too long ago Porsche's CEO commented they will develop self driving technology too but added "you need to understand people buy Porsche to drive not to be driven". They still don't get what has hit them.
Besides the flux capacitor, what competitive novel advantage did a Delorean have? Not sure of the argument there, Fast Girl.
@SamO lots of cool stuff...but in the near term, I'm pretty psyched about the worldwide internet. Does anyone know his plans for this? I hope it will work like, you subscribe to EM's internet, and can use it anywhere in the world. With my job it would be handy. :) And wow the disruption in that sector...
Fast Girl wrote: "Those other auto makers aren't just going to sit around and watch Tesla take away their business. ;-)"
Just noticed the emoticon. So she is being facetious. I was thinking otherwise, which makes a great discussion topic--
Just what are GM et alia planning to do, if anything?
My prediction is that they are planning to milk the market for as long as they can, like the Sugar Industry is doing, until sugar is deemed the poison that it is, like the Tobacco Industry did, or is still doing.
Musk's vision is future. I don't think the ICE makers can do anything to stop this.
"My prediction is that they are planning to milk the market for as long as they can, like the Sugar Industry is doing, until sugar is deemed the poison that it is, like the Tobacco Industry did, or is still doing."
Their plan is simple. Get next quarter's number. Then the quater after that and the next....until the day to retire with a nice package. They will not take any risks to fxxk up that nice plan.
Double the dosage. Tesla will be a trillion $ business. Adam Jonas gets it. McLary does NOT.
Just testing, as the OP.
Cant delete McLary's posts
So much originality McLary got he needs to steal someone else's identity and style. Real mclary is a gem the fake one is just crap.
what the Porsche CEO doesn't get is that the number of people that buy cars for the driving passion element, is disappearing. The next generation more and more see cars as an appliance to get them from point A to point B. So their market is shrinking not only because of that. The other factor and that CEO knows this full well, that many people who buy Porsche's do it for the bragging rights of having the "most advance" car on the road. Well, any car with autonomous driving is the new/future metric for defining "advanced".
why does the Mc-man hate America so much?
@Samo, well I am not a "fat" girl. At least not yet :-) I think you missed the point. I didn't say I think Tesla will fail because Delorean did. I think I said in post that I don't think Tesla will fail. Just the point that nothing is for certain in this world. Even a couple of the big car companies almost filed for bankruptcy not too distant pass.
vp09, you got my message :-)
bottom line, I am pretty optimistic about Tesla which is why I am trying to figure out which model to buy.
Samo, that's ok. You are still on my good boy list ;-)
I make bigger typo mistakes than that.
It's obvious that the pussy's around these forums can't deal with anything that disagrees with their warped little minds. Just like in times past, flag and delete. Censorship? No problem for Tesla pussy's.
The level of rancor and intolerance in the messages on this thread is incredibly offensive.
So is the amount of cognitive dissonance therein.
Even schizophrenic speech allows for more meaning than this exemplarily disruptive, partisan, and agrammatical English prosody.
One more thing though, the dimwits on these forums have obviously dispensed with any sense of duty to inform the audience about the issues they try to address. There is no DIALOGUE any longer. Just free-flow stream of consciousness combined with disrespect for everyone.
How about quoting the phrase, thought, idea, or fragment thereof, that your mind can still accommodate, BEFORE you run your mouth/pen into a frenzy?
In a perfect world where only other self driving cars are encountered, sure it will work great. In congested cities, don't be surprised when traffic gets worse as self driving cars proliferate. Pedestrians, bicycles, construction equipment, non-self driving cars, etc. all give "safe" self driving cars fits in trying to find a safe path. When autonomous vehicles cannot find a safe enough path, they wait. Expect to wait a lot more than human drivers would.
In a big technology shift like this, there are some big unintended consequences coming. Those unintended issues are going to slow down the transition a lot more than Jonas realizes. Autonomous is good, but not all good.