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The competition is ahead of Tesla where it matters.

The competition is ahead of Tesla where it matters.

The highest volume EV are sub $40k EV.

The fastest growing EV car sales by volume are the Smart and BMW i3.

Sales of the Model S have not increased but flatlined in the last quarter.

The Model 3 is planned for 2017, 3 years from now, by then the competition will be even more present.

I think it will be really hard in 2017 to make a dent in the competition.

Realo.de | 26/07/2014

@SBL
"don't disturb my wonderful imagination with your nasty facts" (or the like), or, as has been told about Steve Jobs: reality distortion field (RDF) :-)

just to add some more nasty figures from Germany:

June 2014:

BMW i3: 211
Renault Zoe: 122
Tesla S: 102
Nissan Leaf: 80

expected sales MS in 2014: 1.000 units

negarholger | 26/07/2014

@GTF - why are the figures nasty? 1000 cars of a foreign brand in its first full year would be fantastic.

Also I miss the logic here... Tesla is not competing competing with the i3 or so but to replace gasoline cars.

babstude | 26/07/2014

The fact that the MS costs 70k+ i think those numbers are astonishingly good. Wait till gen III shows up, the numbers will blow the leaf away, lol excuse pun

apsley | 26/07/2014

A few points:

This forum is intended for Tesla enthusiasts. If you want to trash Tesla, you should post elsewhere.

You are comparing hybrids with BEVs.

You have given no source for your "statistics".

The purpose of TM is to promote electric vehicles, not defeat the competition.

The Model S is the best vehicle Consumer Reports has ever tested.

Tesla is the only company with a high speed charging network.

Tesla is a company which has been started from scratch. They do not have the resources which other car companies have, and hence have longer development times

Tesla's plan has always been to start with more expensive, lower volume vehicles and move to less expensive, higher volume vehicles

Tesla is doing just fine, IMHO

DTsea | 26/07/2014

It's amusing that OP trumpets growth rates on vehicles selling in low hundreds and bashes TM for going flat when everyone knows they are selling as many cars as they can build.

DTsea | 26/07/2014

OP also seems to think point of model 3 is to beat i3. Au contraire. It's to take share away from ICE obviously.

Tiebreaker | 26/07/2014

@Strawberrylove forever!

Who cares! Tesla sells everything they make, and there is a loooong line at the door.

blue adept | 26/07/2014

Vehicle marques like Ferrari, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Koenigsegg and the like ALL maintain limited production, ALL are purchased well in advance of production, ALL are desired and even lusted after by all...ALL!

The Tesla Roadster and Model S are the most technologically advanced, progressively designed vehicles ever in the entire 125+ year history of the automotive industry employing some of the most state-of-the-art, cutting edge engineering techniques and methodology utilizing core Physics principles, the likes of which being on par only with the International Space Station and modern day Aerospace industry standards, making the Tesla model lineup truly the most avant-garde vehicles on the road today with the forthcoming Model X and Gen III embodying, if not surpassing, even the insurmountable advances in design engineering accomplished by the preceding models.

While, yes, we'd all like to see Tesla Motors develop the ability to ramp up production, that in no way detracts from the fact that Tesla's Model S is the most in demand vehicle being manufactured today with PRE-PAID orders/demand far exceeding production supply.

Long-story-short, you know NOT what you speak of!

Al1 | 26/07/2014

The source is HybridCars.com and it is showing estimated US deliveries. What it fails to mention is that Tesla US deliveries is barely half of all Tesla production, which has grown by about 50%.

So 1.5/2=.75 It looks as if Tesla sales dropped by 25% even though in reality Tesla sales went up by 50%. And the buyers lists are only getting longer.

Fugacity | 26/07/2014

I have noticed that legacy car companies are copying Tesla technologies and design, I have seen panoramic roofs, smaller versions of center dash computer screens, Tesla grills and aerodynamic body to mention a few. These companies should instead copy the no ICE propulsion, which Tesla has made available. These companies are following Kodak, National Register and others who failed to adopt new technology.

Realo.de | 27/07/2014

References:

Kraftfahrzeugbundesamt:

http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publikationen/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/FZ/201...

Tesla MS: 215 (2013)

---

Teslamag.de (German Fan side)

http://teslamag.de/news/tesla-fahrzeugzulassungen-in-deutschland-fuer-ju...

(my figures above)

---

http://teslamag.de/news/verkaufszahlen-tesla-model-s-platz2-1062

EVs in Europe:
1st HY 2014

Nissan Leaf: 7.109 (25%)
Tesla MS: 5.330 (18%)
Renault ZOE: 3.669

BMW i3, VW e-up!: no figures yet

Remark:
Most Teslas are sold in Norway because of special tax-conditions.

Realo.de | 27/07/2014

@apsley

A few points:
This forum is intended for Tesla enthusiasts. If you want to trash Tesla, you should post elsewhere.
well if you mean enthusiast=non-critical, then you are right

You are comparing hybrids with BEVs.
you are right, but again: it is a principle question, whether the market for full EVs is big enough compared to hybrids

You have given no source for your "statistics".
done

The purpose of TM is to promote electric vehicles, not defeat the competition.
here, I agree completely. But then the fans should not always try to identify ICE-competitors. I always said Tesla defines its own market

The Model S is the best vehicle Consumer Reports has ever tested.
true. more precisely: highest rated (amongst other)

Tesla is a company which has been started from scratch. They do not have the resources which other car companies have, and hence have longer development times
true, BUT: will they have the necessary resources to survive?

Tesla's plan has always been to start with more expensive, lower volume vehicles and move to less expensive, higher volume vehicles
excellent point: the question, however, is: is a top-down strategy better then a bottom-up strategy? (time will tell)

Realo.de | 27/07/2014

@DTsea

OP also seems to think point of model 3 is to beat i3. Au contraire. It's to take share away from ICE obviously.

Fine, but than we should agree on the competitors, e.g. is it BMW320d or BMW335i? - we have to agree on a baseline, first

Realo.de | 27/07/2014

@Tiebreaker

Who cares! Tesla sells everything they make, and there is a loooong line at the door.

fine, but that's no contradiction to OP's post

@just an allusion

Vehicle marques like Ferrari, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Koenigsegg and the like ALL maintain limited production, ALL are purchased well in advance of production, ALL are desired and even lusted after by all...ALL!

true, and that's what I'm saying all the time - but you compared Tesla with very exotic cars here, not with mass market (in my opinion). Bugatti's goal is not to blow VW Golf away, but to build to only car with >1.000PS. If you say MS competes with Ferrari, it's fine, and I will not argue that, but than that should be the baseline

The Tesla Roadster and Model S are the most technologically advanced, progressively designed vehicles ever…

I think no one disputes that, but what OP brought up was a market aspect, not a technological one.

While, yes, we'd all like to see Tesla Motors develop the ability to ramp up production, that in no way detracts from the fact that Tesla's Model S is the most in demand vehicle being manufactured today with PRE-PAID orders/demand far exceeding production supply.

true, but again you are now back at Ferrari, not at mass-market

Long-story-short, you know NOT what you speak of!

of course, like always

blue adept | 27/07/2014

@German_Tesla_Fan/Strawberrylove &/or whatever the hell you're preferring to call yourself now

You came in here under the false pretense of forming a comparison between some of the automotive industries' mass-produced, mass marketed hybrids by way of implying that the Tesla's sales figures, when compared to the others, somehow demonstrated a lack of consumer desire that the other marques possess, completely overlooking the fact that Tesla Motors is still much in it's infancy and enjoys a uniqueness rivaled by no other vehicle manufacturer, none.

You overlooked a LOT of the factors that one typically considers when attempting to perform an accurate estimation of a product's market viability, most predominant among them perhaps being that Tesla Motors is still acclimatizing itself to its new, industrial-size factory while all of the others in your little, heavily canted analysis have been at the whole vehicle design, engineering and manufacturing game for a good deal longer, what with their being legacy industrial manufacturers and all.

So perhaps you do know what you're talking about and you're just omitting certain decisive factors, deliberately, in a vain, ill-conceived effort to make a point?

Either way, you're assumptions are still erroneous and would fail anything but the most superficial review, you know, much as they have here.

pvandeloo.ipod | 27/07/2014

"Who cares! Tesla sells everything they make, and there is a loooong line at the door."

Tesla doesnt publish demand figures, only sales figures. So it is hard to estimate to what extend demand is higher than production capabilities (by what factor).

"Who cares! Tesla sells everything they make, and there is a loooong line at the door.

fine, but that's no contradiction to OP's post"

Well to a certain extend it is. OP said Teslas sales have "flatlined", implying that Tesla has reached a point, where demand is an issue. This might be the case, however without demand figures and with limited production capabilities its hard to tell.

I guess the wait times are a good gauge at how much demand outstrips production capabilities. At some point the production constrained will be alleviated and thus sales will closely correlate to actual demand.

I would estimate that demand for a 70.000-100.000 vehicle, with limited range and long recharging times cant be extraordinarily high, especially once the cool factor wears off.

Bubba2000 | 27/07/2014

The data presented by Strawberry is misleading. Model is a hi performance, hi speed, moderate range BEVs... that can use SC network. The other BEVs are souped golf carts, for city use and can not go the highway in real terms, can not use fast charging for long range. Hybrids are just ICE autos.

The SC network will increase perceived value of Model S,X and drive demand. Yes, production will reach the rate of 60k cars rate by year end. Cost will drop with scale.

quiviran | 27/07/2014

Forgive me for jumping in as one of my first posts, but this discussion seems to parallel the ongoing "the iPhone is doomed because it has such small market share compared to Android OS devices". The market share comparison may be true, but when you look at the profit share comparison, Apple captures the great majority of the profit in the smart phone arena. (20% of the market, 50% of the profits, according to Forbes)

It seems like Tesla is in a similar situation. There will be a lot of entries into the BEV market that sell for less but make almost no money, if any. Most other entrants will have ICE product lines that make them able to subsidize the BEV offerings, since their choices will be play at a loss now, while figuring it out or try to catch up in a few years, after they figure it out but everyone else has already established a presence. And they will also be hampered by their very traditional dealer networks who have no real desire to offer BEVs, due to their probable low after sale opportunity to milk the customer with service charges.

Is Tesla right to go after the high end first? I think absolutely. The high end doesn't buy at the margin of their ability to pay, so Tesla can charge enough to make a profit. And the high end of the market doesn't look at the low end and say "I've got to get me some of that budget BEV action". They buy what they desire. Tesla is right on target at building desirable BEVs.

In conclusion I say "Market share be damned, it is a false data point. Excellent, aspirational products sold at a profit is the way to success."

Realo.de | 27/07/2014

@quiviran

...There will be a lot of entries into the BEV market that sell for less but make almost no money, if any. Most other entrants will have ICE product lines that make them able to subsidize the BEV offerings, since their choices will be play at a loss now, while figuring it out or try to catch up in a few years, after they figure it out but everyone else has already established a presence. And they will also be hampered by their very traditional dealer networks who have no real desire to offer BEVs, due to their probable low after sale opportunity to milk the customer with service charges.

Completely agreed. But if you take all these aspects into consideration, the question remains whether there is "enough" market share / profit for Tesla to survive. BMW pushes to i3 into the market (with a lot of profitable ICE-sales as cash-cows) and, I am sure, there will be an i5 if i3 succeds.

Is Tesla right to go after the high end first? I think absolutely. The high end doesn't buy at the margin of their ability to pay, so Tesla can charge enough to make a profit. And the high end of the market doesn't look at the low end and say "I've got to get me some of that budget BEV action". They buy what they desire. Tesla is right on target at building desirable BEVs.

Again, agreed. But then we talk about a "high profit" segment and not about a "mass market"…

In conclusion I say "Market share be damned, it is a false data point. Excellent, aspirational products sold at a profit is the way to success."

Interesting comment, but ask Elon: as far as I understood him, he wants to attack Audi and BMW with the M3 - that's his goal. The build the "best EV" and sell it with profit is a completely different goal and not the subject of the OP.

Bubba2000 | 27/07/2014

Quiviran,
Unless a person has driven Model S, especially the P85/+, it is hard to understand the huge competitive advantage of Tesla. It is the design, features, performance, and yes, range plus the SC network. I regret not having tested the car in Oct-2012. Tested only Jan-2012. Then, I got the conviction to buy the stock at starting at 35, instead of 28. Most these detractors have not driven the car. Worse were the folks who were shorting nearly 50% of the float in Jan-2013.

See Volt around. Not sure if I have seen a Leaf. Specs are not impressive. Elon came so far from nothing. He will deliver. May take time. The stock valuation may seem hi, but so did Apple, CMG, etc when the started. Completion does not have the technologies. Not even BMW, their solution for range anxiety is a lawn mower ICE in a geeky car.

Mike83 | 27/07/2014

The short stock holders are trying all kinds of tactics. I will be buying more stock especially as the shorts get more desperate. I love short squeezes.

quiviran | 27/07/2014

I think test driving a Model S may need a spot on my bucket list. But I'll have to wait until Tesla is attacking the Honda Fit segment to actually get my wallet out. I see that as a race with the undertaker.

Realo.de | 27/07/2014

@jaa
we should distinguish here different aspects:
1. the posts of OP and me are based on "hard facts", not opinions. I was referring to the official data about the EU-EV market. You may say that some cars are missing (like Renault Zoe) or you may call them wrong but then you have to come up with your own figures and references.

2. competition: you may say the MS is "one of its kind" and therefore has no competition - fine. The numbers above just say something about the "EV-market" and they show up the other cars are more rapidly expanding than Tesla.

3. technology: we may discuss about hybrids, range extenders, full EV etc. In my opinion, only the market share counts. So either you may neglect the market share (like quiviran) as long as the profit is ok (and that's fine) or you want to compete with other cars… I could agree if you say "forget the other so-called EVs, Tesla will only compete with ICEs"

Tiebreaker | 27/07/2014

German_Tesla_Fan | JULY 27, 2014
@Tiebreaker

Who cares! Tesla sells everything they make, and there is a loooong line at the door.

fine, but that's no contradiction to OP's post

Why for the world would you think that every post needs to be a contradiction? There are no different angles?

When presented with facts, you pretty much agree on almost everything. Yet you still retain the contrarian attitude. Hidden agenda?

Tiebreaker | 27/07/2014

@quiviran, very good analogy.

But i'd go a step further back. When iPhone was launched, almost everybody was saying "iPhone will fail, because it has no keyboard. It will never be used for business..." etc, etc. Look what happened. Traditional giant cell phone makers (RIM, Nokia, Ericsson...) spotting keyboards are on life support, because it was not the keyboard that was the deciding factor. iPhone did not compete with other "smart phones", because there weren't any. Others followed. Apple with the iPhone completely changed the industry. Now we can talk competition.

Tesla is displacing the traditional car manufacturers spotting ICEs. It is bound to change the industry, not create a niche. The small, limited range EVs may remain a niche, but it their parent companies do not adapt, there will be no cash from ICE to cover loses of EV sales.

Tiebreaker | 27/07/2014

@Strawberrylove ... @pvandeloo or whatever your current persona is...

Your OP quotes US sales only. Tesla, being production constrained (a fact publicly stated long ago), sells everything that makes. Filling the foreign markets resulted in intentional slowdown in US deliveries.

Tiebreaker | 27/07/2014

Tesla's Q2 2014 report is coming up.

Shorts are concerned.

vgarbutt | 27/07/2014

Well since Mr musk has publicly stated that the overarching goal of Tesla is to foster the electrification of our transportation industries, and to do it with solar, producing a virtually free fuel cost, id say that his plan is going along nicely.

Nanana26 | 27/07/2014

@Tiebreaker "Tesla's Q2 2014 report is coming up. Shorts are concerned."

eh, my dad is a professional trader, I wish stock trading was still as easy as a decade ago where 90% of trading wasn't high frequency trading done by PC, everyone loses against a PC

Grinnin'.VA | 27/07/2014

@quiviran | JULY 27, 2014:

"I think test driving a Model S may need a spot on my bucket list. But I'll have to wait until Tesla is attacking the Honda Fit segment to actually get my wallet out."

Sorry, I thought you were someone who was seriously interested in Tesla's cars.

Since you haven't taken a test drive, I presume you have no first-hand knowledge of what it feels like to drive a Tesla MS. I did a test drive. And couldn't wipe the Tesla grin off my face for days. I wasn't sure I could afford to buy one. So I considered it carefully and concluded about a week later that I could afford an MS. I submitted my order on May 17, 2014 and finalized it on May 27. Since then I've spent about 4 hours a day on Tesla's forums soaking up insight from Tesla owners.

AFAIK no one is suggesting that Tesla will compete directly with the Honda Fit any time soon. You say you aren't interested in what Tesla is doing or what they plan to do until at least 2020. Or is that 2025 or later? I'm not sure Tesla will ever offer a car that competes directly with the Honda Fit. Nor do I think they need to. Not ever.

Why are you wasting your time here?

Ron :)

Grinnin'.VA | 27/07/2014

"THE COMPETITION IS AHEAD OF TESLA WHERE IT MATTERS.
Strawberrylove | JULY 26, 2014"

You are welcome to your opinion. I disagree. I ordered an MS85, and I bought some TSLA stock.

Given that you're sure that I and many other Tesla buyers and stock holders are seriously mistaken, why don't you consider shorting TSLA stock and spending your time on other things instead of trying to convince us we're wrong.

Ron :)

Bubba2000 | 27/07/2014

My guess is that quiviran is paid short basher. Like most shorts 2012 and early 2013, they have no clue about Tesla, let alone test drive the car or even visit the factory. They were short 50% of the float back then, probably with OPM. They were paying nearly 20% interest to borrow the shares and I was offered that on my moderate long position. I bet the farm afterwards in the 35-40 range. Instead, I should have bought a truckload of options with strike price of $50, expiring in May-2013. Duh, missed the boat there. I did ok, but ruined my sleep for months till I cut my position. It was the most stressful position I ever heldI

Still holding a reduced position because I like the company and the product. I got a Porsche that I hardly drive now.

jgsebesta | 27/07/2014

My 2011 Leaf is now relegated to a "grocery getter" as someone on these forums so aptly put it. Although a good vehicle with a nice entry level electric drive, the range limitation wears you out.

One month into my Model S 85 and I will never buy anything else other than Tesla.

negarholger | 27/07/2014

@Oilfield - exactly.
If i3 sells 5 million copies in Germany it just means a 5 million market was created with an huge appetite for more BEV range.

Tiebreaker | 27/07/2014

@Bubba2000
I think you had mistaken @quiviran for somebody else, read his first post, very positive.

@Grinnin'
I also think you misunderstood @quiviran, I think he likes Tesla, just can't afford one, until Tesla makes a car with a price in the Honda Fit territory.

Just saying.......

Tiebreaker | 27/07/2014

Strawberry, ask your dad. And you have no idea what I am doing. :-)

Red Sage ca us | 28/07/2014

Strawberrylove informed us, "The highest volume EV are sub $40k EV."

This is a good thing. But, whereas the manufacturers of those electric vehicles routinely say they are "...losing money on every one we sell...", the Tesla Model ☰ is expected to be profitable, on the order of 18-25% from the outset. Naysayers mistakenly believe that Tesla Motors will suffer the same fate, but forget Tesla does not have the lodestone of 'independent franchised dealerships' to weigh them down.

"The fastest growing EV car sales by volume are the Smart and BMW i3."

OK. Zero to anything over zero is usually pretty quick. The BMW i3 just went on sale in May 2014 in North America. It's 694 units sold over two months is barely over a third of what the Tesla Model S sells in a single month. They have a bit more 'growing' to do...

"Sales of the Model S have not increased but flatlined in the last quarter."

And in the next quarter...?

"The Model 3 is planned for 2017, 3 years from now, by then the competition will be even more present."

This is a good thing. Exactly what Elon Musk wants. There must be more players in the electric vehicle market. Otherwise, stagnation will occur, a lack of innovation will ensue. There will be no incentive to improve without competition.

"I think it will be really hard in 2017 to make a dent in the competition."

The goal is elimination of ICE vehicles. Even if, somehow, electric vehicles begin to really take off before the release of , and they reach, say... 10% of the global market... That still leaves 90% of the global market for Tesla Motors to work toward replacing ICE vehicles.

The Fiat 500e is a very neat vehicle. I believe that if it were offered nationwide (as is the Nissan Leaf), instead of only as a compliance vehicle in limited distribution, it would sell in much, much higher numbers. Alas, Fiat leadership is not interested in electric vehicles being a successful enterprise.

apsley wrote, "You are comparing hybrids with BEVs."

Well, actually... All the vehicles listed in the OP's chart are fully electric. The screenshot appears to have been taken from the hybridCARS website. You will have to scroll down the page quite a bit to see it, though. What is posted here is truncated, showing only six of the ten cars in the chart.

Inside EVs has a chart that compares sales of multiple plugin electric and plugin hybrid electric vehicles in June 2014. They also have another listing that is regularly updated.

German_Tesla_Fan: It is interesting how you have a propensity for making attempts to redirect and redefine threads under the guise of restating or reaffirming the goals of an orginal post that we presume you didn't make. It is fascinating how only your opinions on the matter at hand are of any importance and no one else's facts should be considered as a result.

Grinnin' Ron: I realized last night that market pressures may cause Tesla Motors to build a Tesla Model ☰ three-door compact 2+2 liftback as one of the initial offerings of Generation III. Not so much an analog to the Honda Fit (nee, 'tallwagon'), so much as a functional equivalent of a Volkswagen Golf or Peugeot 208 (hot-hatch).

The realization caused me a bit of sadness, because I know it is a good idea, but it isn't the car I want to buy. It would be the very essence of a 'World Car', in a form factor that is popular pretty much everywhere beyond North America. I was hoping for a nice, lean, low-slung Tesla Model ☰ Coupe that would put the BMW 4-Series to shame... But the Model ☰ is meant for mass market sales, and coupes sell in very, very low percentages.

It's a real shame. I would have gladly paid a premium to own the car of my dreams. I sort of thought it would come a little later down the line, after Model ☰ was established as a market leader. I was willing to wait for it, because I know that sedans, crossovers, and wagons are much more popular and would take priority. But when I really thought about it, the reality hit home. It is much more likely that a smaller three-door would be offered alongside the sedan & crossover. It would weigh less, be easier to park, and have a higher range. It would make a superior 'city car' because it would still be able to tackle the highway without compromise. So this may never come to pass after all:

$60,000 ⇒ Tesla Model ☰ P135+ AWD Coupe, 500 HP/550 LB FT Torque, Top Speed 155 MPH, 0-60 3.0 Seconds, 1/4 mile in 10.2 Seconds @ 134 MPH, 505 Mile Range.

~*WAH!*~

Bubba2000 | 28/07/2014

Oilfield Roughneck:

How does the Leaf perform compared to the Model S? In the city streets? In the highway, in terms of acceleration, range when driving 60 mph?

I own a P85 and I have driven Porsches including on a track. For regular driving I do not see anything beating at P85 in terms of features like the Tech Package, quite, smooth, acceleration in regular driving. Of course, at hi speeds like above 80-90 mph and >>> 100 mph, a 911 4S or even a Boxster S is superb. Good for the track because down here, a ticket at that speed means I got to see the judge.

In a huge city like Houston with 3 loops, long distances, Model S makes sense because a tank of gas does not last too long. No fun being dinged $60-70 every 3-4 days.

Realo.de | 28/07/2014

@just_an_illusion
Did you mean your posts honestly?

1. I am not debating the veracity/accuracy of the figures posted by you/your alter ego/pseudonym, I am only contesting the suggestion of a cross-platform comparison between the vehicles, particularly in light of the fact that only one of the listed vehicles are an actual BEV (Nissan's Leaf) like the Tesla Model lineup, and NONE of them employ technology that is even remotely on par with that designed by Tesla Motors.

GTF is only one person, no alter ego, no pseudonym. ALLnumbers I have posted where either facts, shown with references, or my (clearly marked) personal opinions

3. Really?! I think Mike83 has got your number in outting you as one of those "short trader" douchebags trying to manipulate the stock price.

that's simply ridiculous - and offensive

When Tesla Motors ups production of their Model S, begins production of their Model X, and hits the middle class price point with the deployment of their Gen III, as is presently underway, all of your "competitive" hype loses all of its bluster and any 'leg' your machinated presumptions have to stand on.

fine, time will tell

Stop coloring the water to obscure the view of Tesla advocates, adherents and aficionados with your irrelevant cross-platforms comparisons and largely contrived market tropes.

…don't obscure my bright vision with your nasty facts…

@just_an_allusion (next post)

I'm thinking that we're dealing with yet another troll/company shill, however you'd prefer to label their demeanor, one that employs the use of more than one on site persona.

No, unfortunately, you are NOT thinking…

I'm really astonished about your personal affronts in such a thread. That's clearly against any worldwide accepted netiquette.
I quit this thread,
GTF

blue adept | 28/07/2014

@G_T_F

1. Again, not arguing your "numbers", just the implication that the vehicles listed are, in anyway, comparable to the Model S, ergo, inasmuch as there is no real world cross-platform comparison between the vehicles listed, so your premise is...flawed...to say the least.

I'm not even going to address your (multiple) personality disorder.

3. Doesn't make it any less true...Yes, time WILL tell...Yet facts are FACTS, you cannot argue their incontrovertible reality (though you DID try).

"Accepted netiquette" Lol!

blue adept | 28/07/2014

@Red Sage

So, something along the lines of...THIS"?":

p.s. I've owned a couple Peugeots and Golfs.

Red Sage ca us | 29/07/2014

JAA: Nice enough, but looks like it was designed by someone who wished they could build a better BMW i3, to be honest...

blue adept | 29/07/2014

RS

Yeah, I just don't know which direction they're going to take and contemplating what it could be has my mind doing calisthenics, and not in the 'good' way so, following your take on it, you're talking this:

vs this:

Which doesn't actually resemble the i3..."?"

blue adept | 29/07/2014

Or...Perhaps even something similar to this:

blue adept | 29/07/2014

Whoops!

Grinnin'.VA | 29/07/2014

@Red Sage | JULY 28, 2014:

"Grinnin' Ron: I realized last night that market pressures may cause Tesla Motors to build a Tesla Model ☰ three-door compact 2+2 liftback as one of the initial offerings of Generation III. Not so much an analog to the Honda Fit (nee, 'tallwagon'), so much as a functional equivalent of a Volkswagen Golf or Peugeot 208 (hot-hatch)."

"The realization caused me a bit of sadness, because I know it is a good idea, but it isn't the car I want to buy."

"It's a real shame. I would have gladly paid a premium to own the car of my dreams. I sort of thought it would come a little later down the line, after Model ☰ was established as a market leader."

Tesla's models reflect Elon's sense of what is needed to pursue his goals. Your preferences and my preferences aren't important to him. That's OK with me. I presume that Tesla will need to offer a broader mix of models appealing to different people. As long as they deliver the quality of the MS with the current superb service, I'll be satisfied.

"So this may never come to pass after all:"
"$60,000 ⇒ Tesla Model ☰ P135+ AWD Coupe, 500 HP/550 LB FT Torque, Top Speed 155 MPH, 0-60 3.0 Seconds, 1/4 mile in 10.2 Seconds @ 134 MPH, 505 Mile Range."

I hope that as Tesla matures, you will continue to be delighted with whatever Tesla you are driving. I don't expect to ever buy a car from any other manufacturer. I just want to zoom through my retirement years driving the best car in the world, initially an MS85 with 19" wheels because I'm already too old to go racing with my car.

Ron :)

Brian H | 29/07/2014

Elon keeps demanding other mfrs fill in the EV gaps. So far, no luck.

Red Sage ca us | 30/07/2014

Grinnin' Ron wrote, "Tesla's models reflect Elon's sense of what is needed to pursue his goals. Your preferences and my preferences aren't important to him. That's OK with me."

I agree.

"I presume that Tesla will need to offer a broader mix of models appealing to different people. As long as they deliver the quality of the MS with the current superb service, I'll be satisfied."

I feel very much the same. As I posted elsewhere, I'm rather afraid that I will have to settle for a Tesla Model ☰ sedan or sporthatch while waiting for a coupe to materialize. 

I had been thinking in terms of early product rollouts by Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti brands... Legend coupe & sedan... Integra sedan and sporthatch... LS sedan & SC coupe... Infiniti M/Q sedan & coupe... I believe these were meant as competitors to BMW & Mercedes-Benz 25 years ago...

I had forgotten how much weight that sedans, minivans, SUVs, & crossovers command in the sales market these days.  Since the Tesla Model ☰ is meant to be a mass market car, and coupes are such a tiny portion of mass market sales, it is likely I will not be able to get a coupe at the Generation III launch. I know some are asking for a Tesla Model S Coupe, but I think that would be too large, to be honest.

JAA: This is what I mean... I flattened the image of the BMW i3 Concept to 65% of its normal height. There are several lines on the 'TESLA' hatchback you showed us that are 'shared' with the BMW i3 and i8 Concepts. If you like, I can highlight them individually, but it seems pretty obvious to my eye...

pvandeloo.ipod | 30/07/2014

@Tiebreaker: "Your OP quotes US sales only. Tesla, being production constrained (a fact publicly stated long ago), sells everything that makes. Filling the foreign markets resulted in intentional slowdown in US deliveries."

I do not have to personas. I am not Strawberrylove.

Actually I have already made your point before you even made it:

"Tesla doesnt publish demand figures, only sales figures. So it is hard to estimate to what extend demand is higher than production capabilities (by what factor).

Well to a certain extend it is. OP said Teslas sales have "flatlined", implying that Tesla has reached a point, where demand is an issue. This might be the case, however without demand figures and with limited production capabilities its hard to tell.

I guess the wait times are a good gauge at how much demand outstrips production capabilities. At some point the production constrained will be alleviated and thus sales will closely correlate to actual demand."

As you can see I am not Strawberrylove, or I else I would be correcting my own posts, which would be insane.

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