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How many people noticed that the predicted price for the Model X just jumped $25,000?

How many people noticed that the predicted price for the Model X just jumped $25,000?

I guess that will teach me to make baseless assumptions...

I know we were never told an actual price for a Model X.
We were only told it would be priced similar to a "comparably equiped Model S."

But there was no such thing as a "comparably equiped Model S," since the X was dual motor and the S was single motor. By definition, all X's were going to be equipped better than all S's.

Hence the baseless assumption:
If the X was better than any S out there, then the "most comparable" S would be the best possible S. Even if it was not a fair comparison, that was the closest comparable model available.

So I priced out a Performance S 85 with all the upgrades and got a price in the high 90K's as my best guess for the price for a Model X.

But since the Model S-D's are now available to be ordered, there really is an S that is "comparably equipped". And the Performance S 85D is now running over $125K when you add the perks.

That is quite a bit more than I had budgeted. I thought my $45,000 deposit on Sig#228 had me almost half-way there. ($40,000 for the X plus a $5,000 deposit on an S that I have no intention of buying because I have too many kids to fit, but was told by a salesperson I needed to put down to get invites to certain test drive events) Instead, when we are finally allowed to design our X's, I am going to have to come up with more than another $80,000!

All you other Sig X reservation holders may have just gotten one slot closer to having your own X built...

andex23 | 14/10/2014

Wow, slow down.

The X can still be priced similar to the S, the add for AWD was 4k on the S85D not 25k. Sure, you can take the most expensive version of the S, or you could take the least expensive version, to play the other side. Neither is right.

FYI, you can't get to a performance S will all the upgrades for upper 90s. I bought in 2012 and paid 98k, before tax without the sound system and dual inverters. Maybe used.

gfb107 | 14/10/2014

I don't agree. The Model X will be a single digit percent more than an comparable Model S D. Let's assume 5%.

The base Model S 60D lists for $75,070, so the base Model X 60 will be ~$78,825.
The base Model S 85D lists for $85,070, so the base Model X 85 will be ~$89325.
The base Model S P85D lists for $120,170, so the base Model X P85 will be ~$126,180.

Red Sage ca us | 14/10/2014

$4,000.

Quite a bit less than $25,000.

You could configure a Tesla Model S to over $125,000 before the 'D' was introduced.

So... What the problem is?

GLO | 14/10/2014

@Red Sage

Agreed. I'm not too worried at this juncture. I expected the second motor to cost more. I'll wait before I get worked up.

aljjr2 | 14/10/2014

It seems to depend on one's preferences. The 85D "loaded" with premium sound, upgraded interior, 21" wheels, etc. is $108K. If one were looking at a comparable Model S P85+ which is now the P85D, then the price is $128K, since the P85D automatically adds red brake calipers, air suspension, tech package, 21 wheels, etc.

There is something in range to make the S85D base attractive--that is the 295 mile range (somewhat less on the X, I would guess). Prior to the announcement, I was wondering if there would be a model X P+. It looks like that question was answered with the S P85D.

Given the preferences... the price differential seems a slight increase over the prior Design Center. However, there are some things that are now standard (parking sensors and fog lights) that equalize the price.

One major difference is the Upgraded Seating is only indicated on the P85D. It only has one color in the Design Studio. That could change for the X.... wait and see.

I was estimating 125K for a Performance+ X.... will reconsider given the range advantage to forgo the ZOOOOOOM factor.... although would like to dust my golf buddies Porsche in a SUV.

Iowa92x | 14/10/2014

X will start $10k over base RWD S.

pvetesla | 14/10/2014

According to this website I can still do a RWD X.

pvetesla | 14/10/2014

OK...I stand corrected. I checked the X site again and I was wrong. Bummer.

I didn't need the extra motor but I guess I'll have to take it.

georgehawley.fl.us | 15/10/2014

Elon said "single digit % more than model S". That's 0 to 9 %, if I under correctly. 0 would be nice but unlikely. 9 would be worst case, if he can be held to his word. MS 85D with Tech pkg at $91k becomes MX 85 at $99k. My budget is about $100k I own some stock. Shall I fire him if he is wrong?

vandacca | 15/10/2014

@geargehawley, if anything, up until now, Elon has always kept his word (if you don't hold him to production schedules, which is always a tricky thing to pin down). I have no reason to believe that he won't keep his word on the Model-X pricing.

However, Elon has lots of ways to play with Model-X pricing and still keep his word. Now that the Dual motors S has come out, he can use this higher price vehicle as the "comparable" model to base his Model-X price. He can also make certain features as paid-options (like the 3rd row seats). He also has the whole single-digit range to work with. Lots of wiggle room!

--Dan

georgehawley.fl.us | 15/10/2014

Sorry, Dan. I'm not letting him weasel out of what he said before the big D. When he made the comparison, the Model S had only one lonely drive unit. If it's more than 9%, he's toast but I'll buy the MX anyway. I'm in the low 9000s, if that means anything. I'm thinking that my wait is possibly under 365 days. Yippee! There, I killed another 3 minutes.......

vandacca | 15/10/2014

@georgehawley, I am very confident that the base Model-X will be 9% (or less) more expensive than the base Model-S (even without dual-motors). I wouldn't be surprised if the Model-X is priced exactly the same as a dual-motor Model-S. But, when you finish adding all the extras, you might be shocked how quickly things add up. I certainly was shocked how high the price is for a fully loaded P85D - it will likely be the same for a fully loaded Model-X.

I think you should "fire" him (sell stock) if you're unhappy with the final cost of your Model-X and use that money to further upgrade your vehicle. :)

I'm reservation #008 (Canada)...maybe 180+ days for me???

--Dan

georgehawley.fl.us | 15/10/2014

OK no alcantara, whatever that is. Oh and just regular calipers. Maybe I'll have to put a couple of folding chairs in the third row.

Actually, pricing out the Model S85D (don't need a P) with a tech pkg, pearl white paint and rear seat that I roughly equate to 3rd row seats, I get $93K. Don't need subzero or snow options in FL. Don't need a spoiler, fancy interior or super hi-fi (I'm going deaf.). I'm thinking about $100K for the X. I figure the stock price will double by the time they get around to building my car in a year from now. I'll sell the stock, use half the money to pay for the car and put the rest back in the stash. How's that for a plan? Maybe I'll drive up to the great white north in the summer time (between the first and second week of July, 2016) and buy you a donut.:-))

vandacca | 15/10/2014

It's a deal, @georgehawley! :) Hopefully, I'll have my MX around the same time too and I can show you what alcantara looks like first hand. ;)

--Dan

sofaguy | 15/10/2014

Alcantara is the original brand name for he european made "ULTRA SUEDE".
The only fabric used for furniture upholstery that comes with a 10 year wear guarantee.

JFYI

Not the cheap Chinese made faux suedes or micro fibers.

This is a non woven fabric of super man quality!

World class !!!!

vandacca | 15/10/2014

Thanks @sofaguy! Is it difficult to keep clean?

--Dan

sg021.pa.us | 15/10/2014

Alcantara is the base package material for the Porsche Macan, with optional upgrade being leather.

babstude | 16/10/2014

i too am hoping and needing the X price for the one i want to stay under 100K; fingers crossed

@georgehawley; sure come on up and visit us in the frozen wasteland - oh btw we spell it "doughnut" here ;-)

georgehawley.fl.us | 18/10/2014

Oh shoot.
I was waiting for Brian to correct me.
I have not yet had the privilege. :-))

sofaguy | 18/10/2014

Vandacca,

I used to show it to client that asked that same question.
I would take a BLACK "Sharpie" and write my name on a white sample of alcantara.
I then would use denatured alcohol and a plain diaper, and it would come out!!
Trick is to react to the stain quickly, and use the correct cleaning for what ever the stain is.
World class fabric, but VERY pricey, for a reason...

Red Sage ca us | 18/10/2014

sofaguy: Thanks for the information! Always nice to learn something new.

;-)

aljjr2 | 19/10/2014

I've been trying to reconcile the pricing of the Model S85D with Dual motors against the P85D. I loaded the S85D with Smart Air, 21" tires, Tech package, Premium Sound/Interior, and everything except the Winter Tire Package and Spoiler. It comes to $108K. The P85D box says includes the upgraded motors, requires tech package and Smart Air (included in the S85D pricing estimate). Selecting the P85D Adds $13.5K --according to the dialog box for "high performance dual motors, special suspension, Alcantara headliner, 21" wheels, etc.

My problems is the Dual motor options then jump an additional $10.2K on top of the P85 package for a total Premium of $23.7K over the fully loaded S85D.

It appears there's a double-dip in the pricing model...... I'm I missing something here?? (besides red calipers).

timf2001 | 19/10/2014

The P85D takes the place of the P85+, which included upgrades over the standard P85. The cost to upgrade from S85 to P85 is always $13,500. However, the cost to upgrade from RWD to AWD is $4000 for S85 vs $14,600 for P85. If you already have AWD selected when you go from S85 to P85, it hides the true upgrade cost because the AWD price doesn't update until P85 is selected even though the P85 box reflects the specs of P85D. You do get leather seats and alcantara included, a $3000 savings, but the total upgrade cost is $21,100 assuming you've already selected all the required and included options. If they wanted to make it more visible, they should automatically uncheck AWD when you go from S85 to to P85.

aljjr2 | 19/10/2014

Thanks @timf2001... I didn't realize there was a S85, P85 and P85+ prior.. It is just odd the way the site pricing works. I need the TLM stock to go back up....

ian t.wa.us | 19/10/2014

Don't forget the P85D also includes the new sport seats which you can not yet add to the S85D.

Red Sage ca us | 20/10/2014

aljjr2 said, "My problems is the Dual motor options then jump an additional $10.2K on top of the P85 package for a total Premium of $23.7K over the fully loaded S85D."

I presume you mean the difference between Model S 85D and Model S P85D? Well, think of it this way... How many 315 HP cars can you buy for $10,200?

Uncle Paul | 20/10/2014

The pricing power is in the hands of every customer. You get to determine your price by what accessories you add over the base vehicle. Bigger battery, bigger wheels, fancier interior, additional performance, extra motors,all add to your price.

Now everybody wants to get a car with all the goodies for the price of a base car, but that is not how it works. In the end, you get to name your own price once you are in for the base model.

aljjr2 | 20/10/2014

@phawker1... please don't make invalid assumptions. I was merely trying to understand the pricing model for configuring the Model S.

I will make the determination on my options and price at the time the X configurator is available. If they offer a 85++ model, I will determine those things of value to me after the X is revealed.

Please don't place your interpretations on my intentions. Thanks.

Brian H | 20/10/2014

aljjr2;
Can't be helped. "Mirroring" and deciphering others' intentions is the basic skill required in communicating and interacting. Make it easier for others to guess right, to improve communication.

MileHighMotoring | 21/10/2014

Where are people seeing anything referencing Model X pricing from the horse's mouth (Tesla/Musk) ?

vandacca | 21/10/2014

@eco5280, I think people are using Elon's statement that the MX will be priced at a single-digit percentage higher than a comparable MS. When the Model-D was revealed, people used that new pricing model to base their MX predictions.

jjs | 21/10/2014

@vandacca - I believe you have it correct. The thing is, people calculated the price based upon the S at the time of the announcement. (And I did too.)

There are a couple of errors in doing so. First the S has taken a price increase since then and second there was no comparable S at that time. They did not have dual motors.

So my X is probably going to be $20K more than I initially estimated. That does not make Elon/Tesla liars, it just makes me a bad estimator.

So I expect the X to be 5-10 percent higher in price than a currently priced dual motor S with comparable features.

vandacca | 21/10/2014

@jjs, I'm in total agreement with you, except for the statement, "it just makes me a bad estimator".

When Elon stated that the price would be single-digit percentage higher than a comparable Model-S, it's true that there was no such thing as a Dual-S, so IMHO Elon was referring to the existing single-motor Model-S. Therefore, it is understandable and justifiable for everyone to use the single-motor MS in their estimation. Sure, Tesla can still use the Model-D as the base price to start adding the single-digit percentage, but I'm hoping that they don't do this. I'm hoping that the Dual-S pricing is practically the same price as the MX (within 1%-2%). That way Elon can save fae and we'll have a more reasonably priced vehicle. Is this wishful thinking?

Another area where Tesla fudged with the numbers is during the announcement they advertised the MX as a 3-row cross-over, implying that 3-rows was going to be standard. As we all know, they have since made that an option, which is basically like raising the price of the MX (if you wanted the 3rd row). I'm not saying that it is wrong for them to make it an option (let's not re-hash that thread again) but I'm sure Tesla is not going to lower the base price now that the 3rd row is not included.

However, Tesla will likely give us other new features like Radar, front-camera and extra sensors, so I guess we can treat this as a switch (safety features for a 3rd row). :)

NumberOne | 21/10/2014

The only way your Model X will be $20K more than originally thought, is if you get the Performance model, which I never intended. The Model X will be in the single digit k's more. in other words a few thousand at most, for the base, such as 1.5k more for the 60kWh version with no third row, and then up the price goes. The tech package now includes more features such as the radar, sonar and front facing camera. all of this does not increase the cost of the tech package much. In fact it is only about $500 more, while the price of the HPWC, which I paid $1200 for is now only $750.

It is quite pointless to speculate about the price at this point, but I still expect to pay around $100k for my Model X, which is what I expected to pay long before the Model S P85D was released.