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Prediction...No design studio before August

Prediction...No design studio before August

So the X will have some unique and special features as per Elon. And they will not show the car before release.

It is clear to me that whatever the X will "have" would stop people from buying the S until the S also has "it"

So Tesla is caught in a critical conundrum. They need to keep people waiting and then release at the last moment when they can also upgrade the S.

Therefore I will say that there is no design studio before the signature holders get access. Then the general reservation holders will follow shortly before first releases. Then the Model S will receive the same upgrades as the Model X and Tesla will have manoeuvred itself around a major cliff.

ken | 20/04/2015

Sorry I don't buy it! You can't produce cars in August without having the design studio open for some number of weeks in advance. My money is on mid-May to mid-June for the design studio to open. You can build something without knowing what you are going to build. I don't believe that they are going to build "spec cars", its not like building houses. I believe that Elon when he said that they will start production in August. That's my take on the MX.

ken | 20/04/2015

That should be you can't build something.

timf2001 | 20/04/2015

Tesla's track record has them making major announcements 1-2 weeks into the quarter to minimize the impact it has on existing orders. In Q4 it was the D announcement, in Q1 it was Executive Seats, and in Q2 it was 70D. This would make Q3 ideal for Model X and whatever changes to Model S will be associated with it, thus I'd look for the Model X Design Studio in early July. They would still have 30-60 days to plan for the initial Signature production mix, which is the minimum I'd allow for.

proven | 20/04/2015

@ken: When they launched the Model S, the first batch (10 cars) were delivered to the customers when it was revealed to the public. Presumably they could do that again with the Model X. The initial people are contacted directly to determine their choices, but some key features that are on every Model X are left out for the reveal (even to them).

vandacca | 20/04/2015

@proven wrote:
When they launched the Model S, the first batch (10 cars) were delivered to the customers when it was revealed to the public...

Oh, pick me, pick me!

jjs | 20/04/2015

@vandacca - Good luck with that! :)

Brian H | 20/04/2015

They were major investors, "Founders". No one qualifies for the second launch!

vperl | 21/04/2015

Brian, glad to see you are the word on who is or is not a "qualifier" .

I just have decided April will be my MX time.

ken | 21/04/2015

@proven, I don't think you can equate the S initial batch of 10 cars to the start up of a new MX production line. They are not gearing up a new production line to produce only a few signature X's. I will be very surprised if they aren't producing a thousand a week by early September and to do that they need to have people's input on the design of their X. Therefore, my reasoning is still that the design studio will be open no later than the 15th of June and probably before. Just one person's opinion, but inventory control and "just in time" parts delivery plays an important role in how they gear up that production line. May 15th to June 15th!!!

proven | 21/04/2015

In February Musk said that the X would be revealed when the deliveries start. There are two ways to interpret that: 1) The first time it will be seen in person will be when deliveries start, but people will get to use the design studio before then; or 2) The first time all the features of the car are revealed & the car is seen is when deliveries start.

If it's #2, Tesla could still contact the initial reservation holders to ask their choices (for the things that have options), but not reveal all the features or open the design studio until the initial delivery. Or they open the design studio to the first X number of people and make them sign a NDA.

There are plenty of ways Tesla could hold off on the design studio until launch without jeopardizing the production schedule. Besides, I'd rather set my expectations later and be pleasantly surprised at an earlier design studio launch than to hope for May 15th and be disappointed for several months.

Brian H | 22/04/2015

vperl;
It was all explained before your time. Too complicated for you to deal with, in any case.

vperl | 22/04/2015

Yes, Brian, correct as usual, but you knew that already

Red Sage ca us | 25/04/2015

Depends very much upon what one means by 'open'... What we have heard, officially, as to timing has been:
• Quarter 3 2015
• This Summer
• In six months

We have also been told that 'NO ONE WILL SEE MODEL X' prior to initial deliveries.

This tells me that those initial deliveries of Model X will take place either late July or during August 2015. Those will likely all be fully loaded with all three rows of seating, performance package, maximum available battery pack capacity, panoramic roof, premium stereo/infotainment package, towing package, etc. The new owners will be able to specify preferred colors and materials, but otherwise will be held under NDA until after taking delivery of the completed product. Those who cannot accept those terms will have to wait until after the unveiling.

The design studio for Model X will open for remaining Signature buyers during, or immediately after the unveiling. There would be a gradual rollout of access to other reservation holders. After the vast majority of orders were confirmed, then the design studio would be opened to the public -- with the caveat that deliveries of new orders would be delayed because production through the end of 2015 was sold out.

Ultimately, I believe that registration may continue for the general public even after initial orders are delivered. With a 20,000+ unit backlog to start, those earlier registrations must take precedence for processing as orders before new orders are accepted. Keep your phone within arms' reach and pay close attention to e-mail notifications once July rolls around.

ian t.wa.us | 25/04/2015

Sounds like you've put some thought into this Red. Time will tell but I could see it going down like that.

Red Sage ca us | 26/04/2015

I too, was surprised that Elon insisted the Model X would absolutely not be unveiled sooner. I had thought at first that some lucky folk with Signature reservations would be invited to make their final selections in April or May, ahead of delivery in July... That a wider array of Signature buyers would have been shown pricing and options by June... So they could start taking delivery by August... And that the remaining reservation holders would gain full access by the end of July... With the site opening for public orders in August. That was why I thought that 10,000-to-15,000 units might be delivered this year. Perhaps not.

I believe Tesla Motors will shoot for 1,000 per week, but reach at least 800 per week in December 2014.

MODEL X 2015
PRODUCTION
(ESTIMATED
GOALS)
4,000 December
3,200 November
2,400 October
1,200 September
200 August
Of course, I could be wrong...

georgehawley.fl.us | 26/04/2015

Thanks for the promise of a Christmas present, @ Red. I'm thinking 11K MX delivered in 2015 is doable along with 45-50K MS.
I hope you are correct.
Heading to Fremont in a couple of weeks to see what can be done to speed things up.:-))

Manueljamesfreitas | 26/04/2015

Worst case, we watch daredevil on Netflix and hope for Ca. rain all while longing for some love.

vperl | 26/04/2015

Under 5k by year end 2015.

Wait for it.

Red Sage ca us | 27/04/2015

vperl: Just to confirm... You believe that fewer than 5,000 units of Model X will be Produced during 2015... And fewer still Delivered... Correct?

ken | 27/04/2015

@george, assuming that you are going to go by the Tesla plant, it would be nice to know if the second assembly line is set up and the assembly robots in place. It has been awhile since I have seen anything posted on the status of the new assembly line. That assumes that your NDA allows you to say, but even if it doesn't you could give us a thumbs up, or down.

georgehawley.fl.us | 27/04/2015

@ken: at your service. I will communicate appropriately.

georgehawley.fl.us | 27/04/2015

@vperl: We have all enjoyed your many vperls of wisdom these months of waiting for the X. Time will tell whether you are right or wrong. But it doesn't matter as long as you are willing to eat virtual crow (as I have done a few times) when you are wrong.

ken | 02/05/2015

@Red, that would be a Christmas present for me too, I think you are correct, at least 11,000 in 2015. Regardless of what @vperl thinks.

raffael s. | 03/05/2015

After thinking about it, do you think they will make a difference between European MX and US Mx? Additionally I should say I am not really caring so much, because the X would be company car, which is leased, and the lease for my BMW is still running until June next year, so there is close to no chance to get my X before that. But if they won't be able to, work off the reservation list fast enough(or hold european shipments), I might have to settle for a S.

vandacca | 03/05/2015

@raffael s, I hear that the European MS may have 2 fewer air-bags (for the knees) due to less stringent safety tests. I assume that the MX will follows the MS in this regard.

And if you consider the UK to be in Europe, then parts of Europe will also have a right-hand drive. ;)

Otherwise, they'll likely be the same in every other regard.

raffael s. | 03/05/2015

@vandecca: I meant in delivery time, but sure there must be some differences in the design as well, charging connectors are different as well. I hope the Euro will gain a little bit over the coming year. Base prices are up about 10k from what they where one year ago. Last year a S85 would cost 75k, last week 80k, now its 85k.

vandacca | 03/05/2015

Sorry, I misunderstood. I have no idea of delivery times, either in Europe or in North America (ok, anywhere).