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Tesla Model 3 vs Nissan Leaf

Tesla Model 3 vs Nissan Leaf

It looks like the Nissan Leaf might have a 150 mile range in 2016. The Nissan Leaf's price point and range should be similar to the model 3. Who wins?

vgarbutt | 10/08/2014

Tesla model 3 will win. Superchargers, service 2.0, style, design, range will all combine to win the day.

Red Sage ca us | 11/08/2014

Both Tesla Model ☰ and Nissan Leaf will win spots in the top 25 sales in North America for 2017. The leaders will still be the usual suspects: Camry, Accord, Altima, Fusion, etc. in the top ten. But each of those leaders' sales totals will be slightly lower than in 2016...

Brian H | 11/08/2014

Heh. But for different reasons. M☰ will have gone thru its backlog, and Leaf will be declining despite a marked-down ~$20K price advantage.

Grinnin'.VA | 11/08/2014

@Red Sage | AUGUST 11, 2014

"Both Tesla Model ☰ and Nissan Leaf will win spots in the top 25 sales in North America for 2017. The leaders will still be the usual suspects: Camry, Accord, Altima, Fusion, etc. in the top ten. But each of those leaders' sales totals will be slightly lower than in 2016."

I think you're right. Unless Gen3 isn't ready to go on 01/01/17. In that case, the results are the same, with a delay of a few months to a year. Then the BEV challenge to ICE cars will be obvious to most people. And the old established car manufacturers will be scrambling to maintain their market share in 2020 and beyond.

We're are in an early phase of Elon's dream of BEVs replacing ICE cars for most of the car industry.
Such massive transitions can't be made in a few years. It will take decades to complete the transition.

Ron :)

Anemometer | 11/08/2014

I wouldn't bet against Nissan being successful. Besides it's not a case of Tesla V Nissan.

My last 3 (used) car purchases have been Nissan, not becuase of brand loyalty, I don't even really have an opinion on Nissan, but when I was looking to buy, their models had a something I needed. Funnily enough my cars have been getting smaller - went Navara, X-Trail, Juke. A 150 mile Leaf might appeal if they can make it lighter, and more powerful. And there are faster chargers around.

Don't foreget Nissan are investing heavily in battery production too. They might be the mass market manufacturer (that isn't possible by 2020) whilst Tesla are the luxury performance EV maker.

Still I wouldn't have a 150 miles EV as my only car. But not an issue - I'm looking to add a Mercedes Vito for shifting stuff about and holidays.

@Grinnin - I agree the transation will take decades. New car sales are only a fraction of what is on the roads. But I can imagine a time in 10 years when people will be trying to get theirs hands on a 2012 Tesla S for about $10,000. Tesla will be offering a battery trade deal for say another $5,000 and you get an only slighty dirty 416 hp, with a motor that rocks and 300 mile range from the latest batteries.

I really think the value of used EVs will hold out better as people realise the future cosst of maintenance is lower. Tghat $5,000 battery replacement seems expensive, but compared to 3 years of fuel it isn't! If i allows you to fill up for pennies instead of pounds it will be an investment.

Brian H | 11/08/2014

Sorry, misread the comment. "Please ignore". <:p

Grinnin'.VA | 12/08/2014

@Brian H | AUGUST 11, 2014

Sorry, misread the comment. "Please ignore". <:p

I don't understand what you mean. Can you please explain your point?

Ron :)

Hawkdl2 | 12/08/2014

Tesla will win, at least in the near term. Regardless of how good a Nissan, or any other brand may be, they will always sit side by side on the showroom floor with that company's bread and butter ICE models. You sell an EV by pointing out how horrible are those ICE models and you sell the ICE by belittling people who by EVs or with battery replacement horror stories. It will remain difficult to sell both types of technologies at the same dealership. Telsa will not have this problem. EVs are as common as ICE cars, things

Red Sage ca us | 12/08/2014

DECISIONS, DECISIONS...
Price Vehicle HP / Torque Range
$35,000 Nissan Leaf 2 150 / 250 150
$35,000 Chevrolet Spark EV 2 180 / 400 200
$35,000 Tesla Model 300 / 317 250

Haeze | 13/08/2014

The Spark is the clear winner, for all those times when you need to pull a truck out of a muddy ditch.

I can't believe Tesla would be so short-sighted to give their car such low torque. It may be a great car and all, but if it can't pull that truck out of a ditch then you need to own two cars. The Tesla won't be practical till they make it able to pull a truck out of a muddy ditch.

Disclaimer:
This post is meant to be a humorous allegory to the argument about range anxiety.

keithndeborah | 13/08/2014

Nissan allowed me to see the viability of EVs. For that I'm grateful, even though I'll be returning the Leaf at the end of the lease and moving on to 'An Intergalactic Spaceship of Light and Wonder' to quote The Oatmeal. http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s

Boukman | 13/08/2014

I think Tesla will win. I have a sense that the MS with its success has been like an herald for EVs in general. And as such, it has made Tesla the brand name to beat in EVs. It would not be too extreme to think that many people who bought a Leaf did in fact test a MS and decided to pass because of its high price. If Tesla comes out with the M3 at a competitive price, then most people would probably prefer to go with the "brand" name, unless Nissan raises the bet by lowering their prices to a level that is truly irresistible...

Boukman | 13/08/2014

@Red Sage... I am sorry, but the torque for the Spark Ev2 is rated at 327 not 400 also the numbers in the table seem a bit strange. For the Spark, though the Hp is 180, it produces 400 lbs/ft a higher than a 1/2 ratio. While the Tesla almost has a almost 1/1 Hp/Torque ratio. I do not get it. Help?

Price Vehicle HP / Torque Range

$35,000 Nissan Leaf 2 150 / 250 150

$35,000 Chevrolet Spark EV 2 180 / 400 200

$35,000 Tesla Model 300 / 317 250

3seeker | 13/08/2014

Hey guys don't forget about the car companies rumored to partner with LG as their battery source... I believe they would be GM & Hyundai/Kia. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of Tesla clones by 2017 from the Koreans & Chinese, especially since worldwide Model S deliveries have begun.

I'm still inclined to buy Tesla though since it comes with free supercharging.

3seeker | 13/08/2014

Also, I believe there will be 2 winners:

1. Tesla Model 3 for the entry level luxury buyers - the BMW 2 or 3 Series killer
2. And the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry killer... Who could it be?

On second thought, the Model 3 might still capture both markets.

Timo | 14/08/2014

I think that torque is motor torque. You need to include reduction gear in order to get wheel torque. So multiply by 9.something to get Model S torque. I don't know what the Spark reduction is.

Timo | 14/08/2014

@Boukman, HP is derived from RPM and torque, Model S motor can go to lot higher RPM than spark.

Boukman | 14/08/2014

@Timo...Thanks, but the formulas to calculate Hp are easy to find and are quite simple. I did not crunch any numbers it just seemed there was a disparity between Hp and Torque for the Spark. If you have the numbers that make it work out that way I would appreciate you pointing me to where I could find them.

Grinnin'.VA | 14/08/2014

@ByeByeOil | AUGUST 13, 2014

"I'm still inclined to buy Tesla though since it comes with free supercharging."

Sorry, but supercharging isn't free.
Tesla owners pay for it up front packaged in the price of the car.
That is convenient for people who have the money, but inconvenient for people who need to borrow money to be able to buy a Tesla.

The problem for Tesla is that they have promised "unlimited, free charging forever" to buyers of cars that are supercharger-enabled. The typical MS buyer has no problem coming up with the money when they buy the car, but many potential G3 buyers need to borrow money to buy the car. This puts G3 at a $2k disadvantage in the price comparisons with its competitors.

The only way I see for Tesla to escape from the $2k price disadvantage of SC-enabled cars is to offer another buyer option. Here's the deal:
* $2k lower price than with the standard car with SC enabled
* Pay per SC charge at reasonable rates, standing preauthorized charges to credit card
With these two options Tesla keeps its promise of "unlimited, free charging forever" and financially challenged buyers get a lower price, enabling them to get better financing deals.

Ron :)

P.S. When I've suggested this dual-option thing in the past, several participants have reacted in a harsh negative way. However, no one has given any rational reason for rejecting it. I wonder why.

vgarbutt | 14/08/2014

@ grinning.

While supercharging is not technically free, it is 'practically' free.

2000 dollars over 10 years is 200 a year, or 16.00 a month. Thats less than your morning coffee.

Looked at another way, based on current gasoline cost of 3.50, and mpg of 40 miles, and an average annual mileage of 16,000 miles a year, (50 miles/ day), the same 2000.00 would drive your car for about 2300 miles.

So, after about 1.5 years, supercharging IS FREE FOREVER MORE. Thats 8+ years of free charging. Not technically FREE, but pretty sweet.

vgarbutt | 14/08/2014

I also believe that Tesla could continue to roll out, maintain and feed superchargers for 500.00 per model 3, when you factor in the number of cars that they will sell.

Red Sage ca us | 14/08/2014

2017 EV WAGs...

Boukman, I was just operating on the principle that Nissan and General Motors claim they will be ready to go after Tesla Motors with long range EVs by 2017. I rather doubt that is the case, but no one else is even hinting at providing an EV with substantially more than 100 miles of range by that time, at this price point. My previous post was simply my own [WHISKEY ALPHA GOLF] regarding what they might offer and is not official in any way.
WHISKEY ALPHA GOLF...
Price Vehicle HP / Torque Range
$35,000 Nissan Leaf 2 150 / 250 150
$35,000 Chevrolet Spark EV 2 180 / 400 200
$35,000 Tesla Model ☰ 300 / 317 250
The Nissan Leaf has been rumored to be offered with a 150 mile range about that time, but the current one has an EPA rated range of only 84 miles. The current Leaf only has 107 HP, but since the new car will have a higher battery capacity, I expect the motor might be increased to 150 HP or so.
Yes, the Chevrolet website says that today's Spark EV has 327 lbs-ft torque... But multiple video reviews have stated the torque was instead 400 lbs-ft. I was operating from memory of those reviews. The current car actually only has 140 HP. I was giving Chevy the benefit of the doubt that they might increase it to as much as 180 HP in three years. Since this is GM's current longest range EV at 82 miles, I figure that it is likely they would update the Spark EV, rather than making a larger, heavier Cruze EV, or redesigning the Volt to be fully electric.
I expect the Tesla Model ☰ will debut with no less than a 60 kWh battery pack. Given that storage capacity, I believe it would use an updated, refined version of the tried and true electric motor and inverter that are found in today's Tesla Model S 60. That combination is rated at 300 HP and 317 lbs-ft torque.
Once again, this is only a [WHISKEY ALPHA GOLF] regarding what these companies might offer for public consumption circa 2017. I do not know for certain. These are projections based upon what they have stated as goals and what they have shown me thus far. Nothing more.

Boukman | 14/08/2014

@ Red Sage...Thanks for the clarification. I understand now. Thanks again.

Grinnin'.VA | 14/08/2014

@vgarbutt | AUGUST 14, 2014

"Not technically FREE, but pretty sweet."

On this, we agree.

Go Tesla!
Ron :)

Rocky_H | 14/08/2014

@vgarbutt, I'm glad you brought that up. People are focused on the $2,000 number for Supercharging capability because that's what it is now. Originally Tesla actually had a hardware difference, but then it was just included in the build to be more efficient and simplify. Also, from 2012 through 2017, they are building out the Supercharger network from nothing at a rapid pace, so the extra cost per car makes some sense for the capital to build. When the Model 3 comes out, I think the Supercharger network building will have slowed, and there won't be as much cost built into the cars to maintain it. It's kind of funny money anyway to decide how much of the price of each car goes to an unrelated SG&A expense. If you build more cars, the amount per car goes down because it's spread out more.

Brian H | 14/08/2014

$2K in the pricing of a modern car is a rounding error. Hard to believe it would have influence on sales.

Bikezion | 14/08/2014

@vgarbutt
You left off a 0

"Looked at another way, based on current gasoline cost of 3.50, and mpg of 40 miles, and an average annual mileage of 16,000 miles a year, (50 miles/ day), the same 2000.00 would drive your car for about 23,000 miles. "

That's also only supercharger miles, so it would take a big longer than 1.5 years. Put another way, it is good for about 150 supercharger uses. Over ten years it is still only about $1.50 per use.

Bikezion | 14/08/2014

Whoops, now I screwed up. Over ten years, it's 15 uses per year, about $15 per use.

SamO | 14/08/2014

Best thread in a long time + 1 to contributors here!

Red Sage,

WAG appears 100% consistent with TM's method. Minimize parts across MX MS and M☰ Lines esp re: motor. Connectors will be hot swap.

Skateboard will be ~20% smaller?

Seems like $16/month is a good deal. Can EM finance this payment to customers for $25/month and decouple from upfront cost?

Should he?

I'm not as pessimistic about Nissan.

They might survive.

Nanana26 | 14/08/2014

I love how people already know which car are going to sell in 2017.

Predict my lottery numbers please.

Timo | 15/08/2014

@Boukman:

Spark: 180HP*5252/400T~=2363RPM
Tesla: 300HP*5252/317T~=4970RPM

Sounds plausible to me. It's like many hub motors: they produce huge torque, but because they have very low RPM HP is also low (and wheel torque is also low, because lack of reduction gear).

Rocky_H | 15/08/2014

That is now four threads I've found where andrewpcoulthurst has spammed that same link on the lithium article. Please help me out in flagging them.

3seeker | 17/08/2014

@Grinnin' you're right that it's not free. I should have stated 'included in the price and free thereafter'.

It sure is a steal though at $2,000!

Grinnin'.VA | 17/08/2014

@ByeByeOil | AUGUST 17, 2014

"@Grinnin' you're right that it's not free. I should have stated 'included in the price and free thereafter'."

"It sure is a steal though at $2,000!"

For me, YES, it's a very good deal.
I have the money. I'm retired - have time for road trips. I expect to use SCs a lot.

Your mileage may vary. Or, not all Tesla car buyers are similarly situated.

:)

Iowa92x | 17/08/2014

The LEAF is the best short range city electric car in the world for $22,000. If Nissan can update it to 150 miles at $25,000, it will sell very well, regardless of Tesla 3.

vgarbutt | 17/08/2014

The volt will die an ugly death. There is so much room for any EV that hits the sweet spot of fun, range, and cost.

Brian H | 17/08/2014

SCs have value even for those who don't use them much. Range quibbling is mostly about the capability and freedom to "hit the road" if needed and desired.