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When should you reserve?

When should you reserve?

I'm about a year and a half away (March 2017) until the lease on my Acura RDX runs out and I'm already car shopping :)

I've been pretty interested in / focused on the Porsche Macan S / Turbo but yesterday I ran some #'s and the Turbo compared to the Model X are within just a few thousands of each other (price wise) - plus, the whole not having to buy gas and our electricity is pretty cheap thing.

That said - I don't want to pay a monthly loan / lease on 2 cars for myself (and the wife would be pissed about that) so I have a few questions if anyone has any insight into the matter.

1 - If I reserve now(ish) and my Model X becomes available before my lease runs out - do I need to buy when mine becomes available or is there a way to say give me a few more months until my lease runs out and I'll pick it up?

2 - if that's not the case - once they start shipping to customers and theres an idea of how long they take to produce - try to gauge how far I'm in line compared to production and reserve then?

3 - With the turbo on the Macan and the P90D on the Model X I'm obviously interested in some power / performance - do owners of the P85D find they use the power on a regular basis or is it just a i can afford it / want something fast so why not? Any problems controlling the P85D in states with (heavy) snow (Western NY) ?

Thanks guys
-Mario

Tâm | 06/12/2015

@mgiambanco

1) You can reserve anytime. When Tesla invites you to configure and you are not ready, you just ignore it without confirming it then your deposit is still refundable. The only problem is your lose your turn in the wait line so others behind you don't have to wait for you. It is just pretty much impossible to synchronize your end of lease and Tesla delivery date.

2) It takes about 3 or 4 days from a raw sheet of aluminum to a running car for the roads. However, it is still pretty much impossible to get an exact date of delivery.

3) Performance and Ludicrous are fun to show your friends the G-force. That power is quite helpful when you want to change lane or pass a car. In wet, icy, or snowy road, then any kind of weak or powerful car can lose control. To gain control, you need snow tires and slow down, not speed up.

ian t.wa.us | 06/12/2015

By the time you're looking to get an X they will be caught up on current reservations and will be delivering like they are now with the S. In other words, you will be able to get one within a month or 2 of designing and confirming.

Red Sage ca us | 07/12/2015

Yesterday.

timf2001 | 07/12/2015

I agree with Ian T. They should be caught up by the time you are looking to buy and I wouldn't bother reserving now, especially if you are interested in the P90D. With Model S, you can specify a preferred delivery date when you order, but there's a limit to how long you can delay it (6 months?).

johnse | 08/12/2015

I am not a Model S owner...the X will be my first Tesla, so others may have better insight. However, if you want an X, and want to have a reasonable chance to minimize the overlap of lease payments, then I would suggest that you place a reservation within the next few months.

I suspect that once the cars get out there in numbers, there will be a lot more orders coming in. I doubt the wait time will come down to less than 3 months any time soon.

I have read where people have negotiated delivery dates to be later than the earliest possible. If you try to "time it" based on projected deliver times, it may work, or may not. I would think it's a lot easier to delay a delivery than to speed it up.

Red Sage ca us | 08/12/2015

johnse earned a +42 for noting, "I suspect that once the cars get out there in numbers, there will be a lot more orders coming in."

Yes. I concur, wholeheartedly. Tesla Motors will have to prepare quite a bit of Capacity at Fremont, far more than they may have considered necessary before, to cover only their Generation II vehicles. I do not believe that either Model S or Model X sales will go down per annum for quite a while, if ever. They might be safe with a 150,000 unit combined Capacity, but would do well to prepare for 200,000 per year, just in case.

MyXinTx | 09/12/2015

I do not share others confidence when Tesla will be caught up on the wait list. It's a moving target getting less and less predictable and no matter how much we want to "believe"...well...

I suggest making a reservation in 4-6 months, then make another 4-6 months after that one, then cancel the first if you are asked to order before you are ready, and make another 4-6 months after the last one you made...cancel, reserve, repeat....

If you can afford a Porsche or a Tesla, you can tie up an extra $5K to target you delivery date with your lease end date.

Good Luck

eric.zucker | 09/12/2015

Your target date is set. I would reserve the Model X 3 to 6 months before. This should be a fairly safe bet.

Today the production capacity of Model S is such that the wait time is very low. By end of next year it should be the same on Model X.

Why P90D? Hmm...
a) I can afford it.
b) The uprated components should last much longer.
c) You have it if/when you need it.
d) I would regret having missed the opportunity.
e) I waited so long for the car, it's my reward to myself for the patience.
f) Seeing the bewildered look on my neighbor in his Macann Turbo will be priceless.

Oh, about driving in the snow. Tesla has excellent traction control, so this huge power is well tamed. You will find no problems accelerating, just be careful in a heavy car at speed on snow - slowing down needs lots of anticipation. Kinetic energy is mass times speed squared.

clublon | 09/12/2015

Eric, What is updated in the P models that would last longer? I am still torn between P90D and 90D.

clublon | 09/12/2015

Eric, What is uprated in the P models that would last longer? I am still torn between P90D and 90D.

eric.zucker | 09/12/2015

The P90D (maybe just the Ludicrous version?) has an inconel contactor and high precision pyrotechnic fuse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel

gfb107 | 09/12/2015

Yes, the Ludicrous upgrade. See https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/three-dog-day

Luuudicrous Mode
While working on our goal of making the power train last a million miles, we came up with the idea for an advanced smart fuse for the battery. Instead of a standard fuse that just melts past a certain amperage, requiring a big gap between the normal operating current and max current, we developed a fuse with its own electronics and a tiny lithium-ion battery. It constantly monitors current at the millisecond level and is pyro-actuated to cut power with extreme precision and certainty.

That was combined with upgrading the main pack contactor to use inconel (a high temperature space-grade superalloy) instead of steel, so that it remains springy under the heat of heavy current. The net result is that we can safely increase the max pack output from 1300 to 1500 Amps.

MyXinTx | 09/12/2015

Hmmm, I know that to own a Tesla, or any car these days, you have to fully trust an electronic device....

BUT, there is something to be said about the use of a good old physical fuse without any electronics to rely upon...

Totally ironic to say that here, but show me the data on the reliability, sensitivity and specificity on this electronic fuse.

*Hey Tesla, fold them seats*