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HW3 Upgrade

HW3 Upgrade

Has anyone recently tried making a service request for HW3 upgrade? Curious what the response would be. There is an option for accessory installation and upgrades within the service request in the app.

sheldon.mike1010 | 03/09/2019

There won't be any HW3 units available til the end of the year or 1st Q 2020. Every one made is being placed into new vehicles. Have seen this mentioned in several places.
We;ll get ours later.

walnotr | 03/09/2019

I requested the hardware upgrade to the FSD computer during a mobile service call a couple of weeks back and was politely told the upgrade is not yet being installed. I fully expected that answer and my expectations were met.

Sit tight, I’m confident the swap out will occur when the inventory and training is in place.

Wattsworth | 03/09/2019

One additional bit of information. I asked for HW3 last week. Was told computers will begin shipping to service centers toward the end of the year and owners with FSD in their maintenance account will be notified via email when they're able to begin upgrades.

calvin940 | 03/09/2019

Does anyone know if this install requires an SC or can the mobile tech do it at a local garage with a lift?

legna_fo_htaed | 03/09/2019

@calvin940 Elon had mentioned at one point a mobile tech should be able to do the upgrade.

JAD | 03/09/2019

My understanding mobile can do it, no lift needed.

No reason to have HW3 as there is no software to take advantage of it.

82bert | 03/09/2019

Thanks for the answers. @wattsworth that’s the answer I was hoping for - someone that’s tried and received some sort of info. Will continue to hold tight!

wallacej010 | 03/09/2019

I recently had my Performance spoiler/dual motor badge installed by a Ranger. The Rangers in Hawaii fly to the outer islands on a fairly regular schedule, then drive to each individual Tesla's location to perform the required service.
I inquired about the HW3 upgrade and was told that one idea being considered was to have an HW3 "installation event" whereby Tesla Rangers would set up tents and owners would converge for a bit of a social event while Rangers installed the new hardware. Not set in stone, but an interesting idea to streamline the process for us "outliers".

billlake2000 | 03/09/2019

Amazon will deliver your HW3 and you just follow the instructions on YouTube posted by Bjorn.

M3phan | 03/09/2019

@wallacej010, I love the mobile tech tent social idea. That would be fun.

TexasBob | 03/09/2019

Tesla had to replace my HW 2.5 computer due to a failure about 6 weeks ago. I politely suggested they could save time and money by just doing the HW3 unit and kill two birds with one stone. They said no can do - won’t have spares until later this fall.

82bert | 03/09/2019

@Texasbob. Bummer.

beaver | 03/09/2019

Why is there no data in TeslaFi on V3 hardware? I assume there are enough owners with V3 and TeslaFi by now. Are they not identifying AP hardware properly?

gwolnik | 03/09/2019

I would wait for HW3.1. Expect "bug fixes" in the hardware once it is actually in use with real drivers out in the wild after the software is available. FSD is not something I want to be on the "bleeding edge" of even though I paid for it when they had the $2K sale.

rhj | 03/09/2019

HW3.1 will be a long wait

majassow | 03/09/2019

HW3 has been out for months. So already plenty of miles on it before it ever is installed on your car.
And if they rev it, it won't be called 3.1. For the simple reason that everyone would demand the new chip.

kram | 04/09/2019

What is the use of HW3 without support for FSD?

No_ICE | 04/09/2019

The real question is not when will Tesla begin HW3 upgrades but how long will it take them to complete all the upgrades. There are presumably tens of thousands of owners with pre-April 2019 cars that have purchased the FSD option. I have heard that it will take about an hour to do an upgrade. Because the computer is liquid-cooled the upgrade is not as simple as swapping boards. Tesla does not have much spare capacity in their service organization and this will be a huge undertaking for them. I think it will take many months for them to complete all the upgrades once they start. It will be interesting to see the process they use for prioritizing the upgrades across the fleet.

TeslaTap.com | 04/09/2019

@No_ICE - Only Model 3 uses a liquid-cooled AP processor (a better design in my opinion). The S/X AP is fan-cooled so should be easier to be replaced on those vehicles. My guess Tesla will provide updates on a first-purchased basis. That may mean a lot of S/X customers will be at the front of the queue who bought FSD back in 2016 before the 3 was even available. For high-density areas, such as California, I'd expect some kind of assembly line to speed replacements. Might even be a temporary location away from service centers.

No_ICE | 04/09/2019

@TeslaTap - Agree that FSD purchase date by service region makes the most sense. But I think Tesla is setting themselves up for owner discontent if they wait until additional FSD features are ready for deployment before starting the upgrades. Owners that have to wait 6 months or more for an upgrade, to get new FSD features, won’t be happy campers. Of course, only Tesla knows how many upgrades have been o be done and maybe the problem isn’t as bad as I think.

thedrisin | 04/09/2019

"only Tesla knows how many upgrades have been o be done and maybe the problem isn’t as bad as I think."

It would be nice if Tesla informed us how many upgrades there are and the process that will be in place for installation instead of all this unnecessary speculation.

jjgunn | 04/09/2019

The real question is when will the software be ready to take advantage of the new hardware.

That's when "upgrades" will occur.

P.S. it's not an upgrade. You already paid for it -- this is what you paid for.

calvin940 | 04/09/2019

Thanks for the mobile answers. While I don't need it currently, I wanted to understand whether I needed to do a 1000mile drive to get it done or in the comforts of my own home.

jjgunn | 04/09/2019

Supposedly Tesla Mobile Service can do it. Guess we'll find out.

Techy James | 04/09/2019

billlake2000 Only if I1Tesla puts up video on how to install it will I follow uTube video.

terminator9 | 04/09/2019

When I take my car in for service they do these technical bulletin for other things - some frunk pull cable was replaced the first time and then some charge port thing was changed the second time. I am assuming we will get to a point in 2020 when there is much more supply that these will be put-in in a similar way when you take the car in for other service. Put it in and don't enable it unless someone pays for FSD so a separate visit isn't needed in future. I am also assuming the cost of these to Tesla is like any other computer part - may be $20-$50 a piece when created in bulk.

Pepperidge | 04/09/2019

@kram "What is the use of HW3 without support for FSD?"

Better and faster object perception even for normal AP.

cmh95628 | 04/09/2019

@terminator9 re: I am also assuming the cost of these to Tesla is like any other computer part - may be $20-$50 a piece when created in bulk.

I respectfully disagree. This is a 260 sq mm flipchip in 14nm finfet, at modest volume (say 500k cars per year, so 1 M chips per year). I would think a FSD computer board (with two FSD computer chips per board) would be on order of $300 to $500 per part for quite some time. Just my educated guess.

TeslaTap.com | 04/09/2019

Actually, I suspect an appropriate retail cost of HW3 is way more than $50 and quite a bit more than $500.

Consider a medium powered CPU chip today costs $300-600. the board has two perhaps more complex chips, plus DRAM, plus flash memory. At least similar complexity and parts as a higher-end motherboard without ram or CPU - perhaps $250 for that. Also, consider all the parts are automotive-grade wide temperature range parts. These often have a 50-100% premium over consumer-grade parts for the home.

A retail cost of $2000 would not be surprising. Much harder to pin down manufacturing cost. Do you include the years of hardware and software development? Is the raw chip cost or what Tesla pays for each chip? Is Tesla's cost far higher as they are not a semiconductor company with massive sales? What about licensing costs for the ARM cores used in the chips? I'm sure I'm leaving out quite a bit as well.

cmh95628 | 04/09/2019

@Tesla Tap. If you were asking me, then no, I was not including NRE or development (HW or SW) costs. And yes, I was talking about my guess as to manufacturing costs per board, not retail. Sorry if that was not clear.

And since I have (maybe) your attention... Thanks a bunch for all that you do for this community. Much appreciated.

WardT | 04/09/2019

FWIW, When asked what good is HW3 without FSD, I believe HW3 will make your M3 have smoother TACC operation. When a system is processing speed limited, performance and ease of use stuff gets bogged down. Think of an old computer trying to run state of the art software; It gets pretty tiresome quickly. Update to a new computer and everything runs better. I hope the phantom braking and other annoying operations go away with HW3. This is how I justified the $3k purchase. I suppose it would be pretty easy to confirm my belief by asking a HW3 M3 owner how well their TACC and self-driving features work and compare their answers to a HW2.5 owner.

Atoms | 04/09/2019

The HW3 board and enclosure is probably close to $1000. This board has a lot of silicon on it. As well as memories, the voltage regulators interface chips, connectors, assembly, case, and all. Possibly a few hundred dollars more.
It is funny they don’t have extra in stock to start installing. This may be an issue of tracking and control software needs to be written to manage keeping track of which cars are changed. Likely all extra chips are being built into Dojo, their machine learning server farm. This has priority over upgrades right now.

coselectric | 04/09/2019

I'm a chip architect. At one point I did a rough die cost estimate for the Tesla ASIC, and I think it was somewhere around $50 packaged, maybe a bit lower, although I don't know the package size and ball-count. I don't have all the figures, but IIRC the die is around 15x15 mm and is fabricated by Samsung in their 14 nm process, probably does not require any unusual process layers (I don't have Samsung wafer cost data but I do have TSMC 16 nm wafer cost data which would be similar). ARM core royalties are another open question, depends a lot on which core they used and how good they negotiate, but I can't imagine it's more than a few bucks per die. They also had some other IP on that die, probably a few DDR memory interfaces and ethernet MACs, other minor stuff - maybe another few bucks per die. Remember that you may pay $300-$600 for a hot CPU (or the NVIDIA GPU that their ASIC replaces), but that's not Intel's or NVIDIA's cost to manufacture; typical high-end semiconductor margins are north of 70%. Board cost is hard to estimate without a breakdown of the components, but probably a few hundred bucks depending on how much flash and DRAM and how fast it is. I agree with a guess that the *cost* of that HW3 board is probably around $500 not including NRE, R&D and all the other overhead, just materials cost.

I think it's awesome that Tesla built their own ASIC, and I think it's hysterical that I've read analysts questioning the wisdom of doing it. I dropped $3K for the upgrade from EAP just because I couldn't stand the thought of watching from the sidelines.

coselectric | 04/09/2019

I forgot to mention that my favorite part of the Investor Autonomy Day presentation was when an analyst asked if they were putting their supply chain at risk by outsourcing the manufacturing to Samsung. Ridiculous. Every time I read negative investor press on Tesla I wonder if it was written by that idiot.

Atoms | 04/09/2019

The Samsung fab is in Texas. No issues with tariff there. Board manufacturing and assembly is likely in China or Taiwan. Since it is automotive, they are performing burn in testing. Some yield loss both at chip level and at board level.

coselectric | 05/09/2019

To clarify, the analyst was suggesting Tesla could manufacture the chip themselves to avoid placing their supply chain at risk with an outside supplier. Ridiculous suggestion.

majassow | 05/09/2019

Coselectric: don't forget that this is a (relatively) low volume part. A single mask set for 14nm will be a few $M alone. That and other NRE gets spread over a much lower volume. $50 cost sounds a little low.

TeslaTap.com | 05/09/2019

Cool data points. I've always been on the periphery of chip design. Didn't have a clue on the cost for a mask set. Is that for a single wafer? Just checked and see some fabs are using 11.8" wafers - crazy from the days with 2-3" wafers so long ago. I guess it dates me :)

Agree the raw HW3 materials only cost could be in the $500 area.

TeslaTap.com | 05/09/2019

Had my AP2 processor replaced earlier this week for a minor intermittent issue. Hoped they might stick in an HW3, but no such luck. It's even possible Tesla doesn't have a retrofit HW3 yet made for older cars like mine.

ADinM3 | 05/09/2019

@No_ICe, I've asked the question on whether the Model 3 HW board required breaking opening the cooling lines. My understanding is that if the cooling system needs to be breached then the job needs to be done by the SC as mobile Rangers are not equipped to do this. Maybe that has changed or will change going forward, but this appears to be the key question to answer to determine where the upgrade can occur.

ADinM3 | 05/09/2019

Meant to say I asked here and never got an answer, not that I had asked Tesla.

No_ICE | 05/09/2019

@ADinM3, my Ranger says the cooling system does need to be accessed but Tesla has found a way for mobile service to do this. The downside is that the process will take about an hour.

majassow | 05/09/2019

@Ttap: one mask set will be used by all wafers run for a product. However it may take several steppings, or design tweaks to get to the production part. If it's a full layer change (transistors are involved), that's a whole new mask set. Some changes can be made in metal only and don't need the full set, saving some $$s.

coselectric | 06/09/2019

@majassow, yup, I did not amortize mask costs or total development cost in that estimate. Mask costs for 14 nm are still north of $5M, total development cost for a device of this complexity is probably $50M-$100M depending on a lot of unknown factors. But that's all funny money when you are building an ASIC that is consumed internally by a larger system development program (in this case, a family of automobiles).

coselectric | 06/09/2019

Remember that a $50 device cost means that a product like this would be sold by a semiconductor company for $200+ with healthy margins. And I could easily be off by 50% in the estimate, the comment about relatively low volumes is valid. But I highly doubt the device cost alone exceeds $100, it's really not that big of a die in the grand scheme, and they're really not pushing the semiconductor technology that hard.

coselectric | 06/09/2019

And by the way, I suspect they released the technology and die size during the Investor Autonomy Day presentation specifically to show that (a) they are using a technology that is cutting edge enough to show that they are doing something interesting, and (2) they aren't pushing the technology so much that device yields would be questionable.

coselectric | 06/09/2019

(a) and (2), just saw that. Funny. What I wouldn't give for an edit button right now.

majassow | 06/09/2019

Funny money until you have to decide if you go with your chip or NVIDIA's...

brian.wilk | 14/11/2019

I brought my car in today (Nov 14th) for service and was told they are upgrading me to HW3

Joshan | 14/11/2019

and it begins!

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