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COVID-19 discussion thread for all

COVID-19 discussion thread for all

Here a new thread for everybody to have at it for all of your discussion needs.I hope we can keep this here and keep are other threads open. I wish everybody well and we will get over this sooner than most of you may think.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

Let’s shake things up. Seemed smart to the dumb.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-figh...

Tldickerson | 26/03/2020

BH, not everybody wants to be a member of business insider. Sorry to break the bad news to you.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

“ Yang said it’s certainly possible that the true number of people who are infected is 10 times greater than the number of people who have confirmed cases of COVID-19. In that case, the true fatality rate would be closer to 0.2%, he said.

But even that’s still higher than the seasonal flu, which had a fatality rate of up to 0.14% last flu season, according to data from the CDC.

Ultimately, said Yang of UCLA,you might think of the coronavirus as a very BAD FLU that can infect a lot of people. That’s still cause for worry.”

RedShift | 26/03/2020

@tldickerson

You were saying something about being tolerant of another point of view? Looks like you don’t even want to SEE another point of view.

It’s all fitting now, why you take umbrage when we attack your boyfriend here.

Two birds of a feather. Quite a pair you make!

dougk71 | 26/03/2020

What is missing from the above flu vis a vis corona is that unlike corona we have herd immunity for the flu. This means far few people will come down with the flu at any point in time. With corona every one is susceptible so the mortality rate might be similar but the numbers exposed to that mortality rate are far greater with corona. Further with flu we have vaccines that heavily reduce the ability of the same exact virus to circulate year after year.
In the Spanish flu there were 3 waves the second wave was the most deadly. We have a year or less to develop a vaccine for corona and lets hope it doesn't mutate and reduce the effectiveness of a vaccine.
Testing has been badly botched and nation wide control is lacking we are a 1st world nation with a 4th world response. I leave it to readers to decide which party Republican or Democrat has cared about healthcare for all.

barrykmd | 26/03/2020

Speaking of testing, here's an example how undertesting has overestimated the mortality rate:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-why-germanys-death-toll-is-so...

Tldickerson | 26/03/2020

@RedShift, I think you missed my point. In order to read BH link one has to be a member of that site. I tried to read it but didn't want to pay money to join the group in order to do so. I'm not interested in being a member of Business Insider. Now that I'm stuck at home like the rest I go to many sites to read as much as I can and get other people's points of view. I didn't start this thread to argue with you or anybody else.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

It’s a click bait rag that regularly trashes Musk and Tesla. I’ve never seen a paywall in all these years, but I’m not super old.

Upshot is that the budget and talent at CDC had been gutted by DJT which is why the US response has been the worst in the developed world (and now the plan is that your demographic become human sacrifices.) Thanks in advance for your service to our 401(k)s, since there won’t be any funerals for you to watch from heaven.

Tldickerson | 26/03/2020

@BH, last night when I tried your link I got exactly what I posted. I just tried again and that didn't happen. Might be a virus in my PC. My apologies to the remark I made about your previous post. Like I said, I'm not here to make trouble or start fights with anybody. I hope we can all get along and get over this Covid-19 sooner than later.

SbMD | 26/03/2020

@Tldickerson - thanks for starting the thread. Fair point that a couple of other threads have been diluted with talk of this topic, and I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge being a part of it... albeit for reasons that are designed to be informative and serve the Community. If relocating here makes sense for the Community, happy to participate.

Thanks, @BH and @barry for your links.

From @barry's:
"Making direct comparisons between national mortality rates can be misleading, not just because of recording lags and different methodologies on reporting cases and deaths, but also because of the extent of testing. The more aggressively a country tests for coronavirus, the more cases of mild infections will be found and recorded in the statistics, which pushes the fatality percentage down."

Agree 100%... have acknowledged this as well. However, a percentage is just that... comparing something so superficial as a percentage mortality across different diseases is not helpful in understanding nor controlling a specific disease process, nor does it give us the information to decide on policy.

It is an error of thought to say that COVID 19 is a "bad cold" or "bad flu", especially when basing such a flawed notion on one, two, or three superficial statistics. There is much more happening in dealing with this disease epidemiology and biology than others in comparison, and unless one has the ability to put these into proper context, they will continue to make the same errors.

I've been making this point over and over... because it is proven over and over, and around the world.

However, this fact is ignored repeatedly by some folks, and the back-of-the-napkin economic machinations being played out by them are cherry-picked and incompletely reasoned.

The actual morbidity and mortality, as well as the resource utilization and sum total of economic impact as a result, is not seen in the simple numbers being put forth to the public.

No one -- including me -- knows how long or deep this will affect the global population. I don't espouse prognostication for "long time", or "short time" timelines, either. I would caution everyone from making the same assumptions or predictions.

We haven't seen the full effect of this on the US, and in many other countries. That isn't gloom or doom... it is to level set expectations. There are a lot more variables in the equation than people may realize.

barrykmd | 26/03/2020

Appreciate your continued input, Sb.

thranx | 26/03/2020

@Darthamerica: We may get a better idea of CV 19's true mortality rate if and when truthful data comes out of Pakistan, which has 220 million people, a miniscule health service, and addled mullahs still urging people to attend Friday prayers.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

It’s a bad cold. We don’t have a vaccine so you cannot stop it without torpedoing the economy which will be worse. Buy ventilators and mask. Hire more cleaning professionals. Wash your hands and try to avoid touching your face. That’s about all you can really do. People are going to die but not in numbers that are worth the many more people that will be affected by a depression. In the end this is one we are just going to have to live with for a year or two until there’s a vaccine and antiviral meds. Many people will get it but for the overwhelming majority they will recover just fine. The initial call for staying at home for 15 days was a bit much but understandable given the novel nature of this virus and the fear the media sold. But going beyond the first or second week of April is foolish. In places where there are particularly bad outbreaks you handle them on an individual area basis. But the country must reopen sooner rather than later. And herd immunity will be higher so as this continues, it’s not likely to be as severe on subsequent outbreaks.

dougk71 | 26/03/2020

@Darthamerica...I predict your opinion will change about who dies if you yourself face the prospect of you or a loved one facing death from the virus.
We pride ourselves has having a 1 st rate healthcare system but our response to a major threat is that of a 4th rate power. Either we all sacrifice equally as we should in a national crisis or should some elitists choose that they should benefit unequally. In WWII Japan threatened Hawaii and the West Coast...should only the West coast have gone on a war footing.
By the way Taycan's offer no protection yet Tesla's have bio-hazard filters.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

This is right up there with Darth’s argument that we shouldn’t track terrorists because more people die of bee stings every year. Trump must have gotten course credit for watching the same Prager U video to come up with the Covid-car accident analogy.

Getting intubated and put on a vent is a big deal and not a good prognostic sign. Talk of having one ventilator for every 15 in need will be a big deal. The bad cold comparison is like saying being pregnant is a like a bad case of heartburn. It’s so ridiculous as to not merit a serious response.

Ironically, we may soon be in the position where a campaign slogan of “MAGA” is actually pertinent.

SbMD | 26/03/2020

@barry - thanks :)

@darth - Sorry, but your back-of-the-napkin econ is still flawed. You cling to the things you think you know as opposed to considering what people are communicating. You aren't here to discuss or learn. You never were.

Large part of your view of the pandemic is really about your own financial bias, part of it is probably tied to what @dougk71 put forth about your not having any personal context of the impact of the disease.

Case in point is your comment on how the response to the rapidly rising infections and death slowed down a factory which supplies parts for you, which you commented on in one of your prior posts.

The sum total of your conversations and opinion here -- really over years and multiple threads -- reveal that your real motivation is you, veiled under the guise of an ill-informed view of broader economic impact, and oblivious to the real human effects (all effects and not just health effects).

This is really about you and your own wallet, and not about a local, national, nor global community; given how you have been prattling on about buying Taycans, Porsche's, and Rolex here, this s quite clear to anyone paying even a little attention.

As more evidence, you are also ignoring what is coming down the pipeline globally to try and support people in need. How convenient. Until those global policies and support are fully realized, to try and espouse some modicum of understanding for the economic impact as you have been doing is entirely premature and reveals your self-serving nature.

In short, your economic fear-mongering is transparent to me and to anyone who is paying attention.

I more than recognize that there are people -- very vulnerable people in multiple ways -- that are in need and the numbers will grow. I know this in more ways than I need to communicate here, so your self-centered preaching disguised as population-level concern is laughable at best.

You really don't understand the FULL impact of this disease, and you reference historical data that you apply too broadly and obtusely (i.e. the Great Depression). Wrong.

Get with the larger program, or move on. The rest of us can have a better conversation, and explore all considerations equally.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

Hey team apocalypse, Elon just retweeted this: https://twitter.com/alexberenson/status/1243133211011690499?s=21

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

@dougk71 I’m a first responder, so my opinion is based on direct experience and information that isn’t presented by fake news channels and celebrities. It’s a bad cold.

SbMD | 26/03/2020

Doubt you are a first responder, @darth. Seriously. You've been telling us you are an engineer, military, and now first responder? And yet you have little value for human life, don't understand scientific concepts, have some of the most disjointed military analyses, have no concept of pollution and health effects, debunk peer-reviewed science with junk science, and your breakdown of mathematical concepts has been tilted, at best.

Sorry, not buying it.

SbMD | 26/03/2020

Or do you mean first responder when setting up Porsche experiences? That I would believe.

revrev4ruach | 26/03/2020

@SbMD +1000 for both

TeslaTap.com | 26/03/2020

Darth is a first responder - first to respond in the Tesla forums with misstatements, fake facts, and outright lies. Nothing new.

@SbMD +1000 for your clarity and information!

barrykmd | 26/03/2020

How come the networks do their press conference coverage backwards?

They cover Trump and his endless repetition and babbling, then when it comes time for Birx and Fauci, Who have real facts to discuss, they go back to their regular programming (unless you switch to MSNBC or similar)?

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

The experts were wrong... if you believed the fake news media who’s motivation was to terrorize Americans into compromising their freedoms and trying to blame things on Trump. Now that it’s getting harder to hide the data that the death rate of this bad cold is far far lower than previously “reported”, they’ll have to look for another angle.

NKYTA | 26/03/2020

@barry, Fauci was on CNN tonight. They showed the dipshit in chief, skipped Pence and showed Birx and Fauci. But yeah, could have skipped the first section.

@DA, no, just no. 25% of people tested in Hayward on Monday were Positive for C19. Just those along have probably infected 500 more. Don’t be an idiot. If I were a friend of yours, or even a casual acquaintance, I would have already shunned you. Fucking stupid people.

NKYTA | 26/03/2020

alone

RedShift | 26/03/2020

@NYKTA

“ Don’t be an idiot. ”

That guy is looking at idiot in the rear view mirror.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

Bad cold, over reaction by the fake news media. That’s how this ends.

NKYTA | 26/03/2020

Infecting all your Porsche customers won’t win any sales, covidiot.

NKYTA | 26/03/2020

You’ve always been the problem, never had a solution.

How are Rolex sales going to play tomorrow?

SbMD | 26/03/2020

Here are some of the life-threatening complications of
COVID 19:

Fulminant, life-threatening pneumonia
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
Cardiac Failure
Arrhythmias
Shock
Permanent pulmonary (lung) damage
Cardiomyopathy (permanent damage to the heart and its function)

These are not a part of a cold, "bad" or not.

If you were really a "first responder" with some medical training, you would know at least some of this, @darth. Or are you "First Responder" to a sale on Rolex? That sounds right for you!

Facts over @darth's fiction... again.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

This won’t come as any surprise to all the first responders on this thread.
https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhu...

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

Yawn... wake me up when there’s real news that I haven’t seen before. Not a NYT productized fear video about the bad cold. The real story is the local bad forecasting and distribution of ventilators and PPE. A city of millions stacked on top of each other with a mass transit system as a primary means of transportation and you’re surprised by this? Go figure.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

Seem to be at odds with the US Army. USACE active in 50 states converting infrastructure to hospital space.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

It’s not at odds with the Army.

Captain_Zap | 26/03/2020

I have an odd curiosity about COVID-19. Could it just go dormant in infected people and surprise them years later with a secondary illness? Like Chickenpox and Shingles?

Speaking of Chickenpox, that is another virus that is harder on adults than children but it doesn't seem to have prejudice with respect to who it infects. Could the age prejudices of COVID-19 be related to older people having drier eyes and membranes or the loss of elasticity making it easier for the COVID-19 virus to enter cells? Perhaps it is an equal opportunity virus that infects all ages without prejudice, but I thought studies with larger samples of all age groups had been done in other countries, like South Korea.

I have lots of odd curiosities about the virus. One thing is for certain though, I chose to not be a vector and be a part of a bigger problem because there are so many unknowns.

@SbMD
I have to agree with you on the spirit and soul of a First Responder. I have a family member that is one. You could burglarize her home, run away while threatening her with a gun and then get hit by a truck in front of her house. She would still do everything in her power to keep you alive and transported safely to a hospital. Total respect!

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

Uh huh. Nothing new about that. The Army is a flexible adaptive organization. It’s, the bad cold, a serious illness just like the flu is a serious illness. But it’s very low risk for most people. And the only reason to even pay attention to it is that we don’t yet have a vaccine. But it’s not the end of the world. Just an over-exaggerated panicdemic caused by 21st century media, social media mixed with partisan politics during an election year.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

60 day troop freeze.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

False.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

There are WIDE exceptions.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

Bighorn you’re pushing a narrative about things you have zero knowledge about or understanding of. Or you’re prevaricating again. Either way, this will and is playing out exactly as I said it would in the other thread. Nanny states like California might try to exploit things a bit longer. But even that won’t hold up under the pressure that’s coming from citizens and the White House. In the end this ends sooner rather than later, Trump gets a big bounce in popularity and history will remember this for the mass panic that it is, how unprepared we are for really dangerous pandemics and for the Constitutional implications. It will also strengthen the arguments for tighter control over borders and immigration.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/489536-pentagon-orders-60-day-troop-f...
Mostly naval exceptions. We may house a naval intelligence officer returning from MENA for his 14 day quarantine.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

Kind of explains why the media wants to silence his press conferences. Not quite what they were hoping for. Or this: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/25/politics/guns-ammo-coronavirus/index....

trevor58 | 26/03/2020

There are WIDE assholes, too

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

No... not mostly naval. Thousands of troops will move as planned. Only non essential movements are being paused such as PCS and routine schedules training rotations in line with overall guidance to minimize spreading the virus in ways that affect readiness. Otherwise it’s BAU.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

Approval won’t survive morbidity and mortality of one and two degrees of separation. We won’t have to wait decades to find out who’s correct. June should suffice.
Stick to facts and not ad hominem, kindly.

Darthamerica | 26/03/2020

I’m the only one sticking to facts here. That’s why everything I’ve said has been 100% accurate. I’m not reacting on “feelings” or “politics”. You can’t shut down the country over a bad cold. Just get used to living with this because Trump is about to re-start the economic engine. Elon Musk understands this thankfully... that says a lot.

Bighorn | 26/03/2020

Esper didn’t get the memo, I guess. Trump’s hands will be tied by the carnage.

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