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This is really going to hurt EV sales

This is really going to hurt EV sales

A lot of the people I was talking to in line, had EV's, but few had Teslas. Why would you go buy a Leaf or a Bolt at this point? I fear EV sales are going to drop, which critics will try to sell as a big negative and the manufacturer will use to kill off EV programs, for another few years....

jordanrichard | 01/04/2016

Good point about the sales, albeit a temporary drop. Volt sales dropped significantly once it was announced that a longer range version was coming in 2016 and I sure the same thing is happening to the Leaf.

As you said, this car just puts a nail in the coffin.

Chunky Jr. | 01/04/2016

Any company that kills EV programs at this point is foolish. This may hurt sales of current cars, but clearly there is public interest for compelling EVs. People want cool cars that happen to be EV, not EV cars that otherwise suck. In other words, if a car is cool, people will want it, whether it is EV or not.

EdwardG.NO2CO2 | 01/04/2016

The M3 has already increased sales by 150,000! It will certainly kill sales of the "Ugly Ones" but dramatically increase sales overall.

Ankit Mishra | 01/04/2016

Yes, it might reduce sales of incompetent EV but it will cause more damage to sales of ICE.

Solarwind | 01/04/2016

I would think this would panic conventional auto makers and they would push what EV they have harder. Also send them back to drawing board.

JAD | 01/04/2016

Long term I agree, EV's will sell like crazy by 2020, but the number of sales for 2016 and 2017 will likely be very small and allow critics a last gasp at denying the future. The only reason to buy a Leaf, is if you need a car now, and replace it in 2-3 years when the 3 is ready. Getting a Bolt in a year, instead of a 3 in 18 months seems like 30k of them may be plenty. I think Tesla is a Bolt killer.

carlgo | 01/04/2016

If charging is really addressed, this car is the beginning of the end for ICE. If indeed batteries can be made on the cheap, there is no way ICE can compete pricewise either.

MarlonBrown | 01/04/2016

Not only other EV makers of the world will finally learn how to adapt but also the old school competitors. The guys at Nissan will need to hire people who have good taste and inprove their design a lot. The chevy Bolt will sell few units to the hardcore old school crowd, but at $35K not sure how a chevy has a chance against a Tesla. Then who wants a BMW 328i if you can get a car which matches or exceeds the acceleration, handling, style but in return you dont spend money in gasoline and absurd BMW maintenance costs? Audi has been making the most boring and same old cars since my A4 2006. I am sure they will always sell based on the name badge, but it is time to face the music.

wildpanda86 | 01/04/2016

I found a chart that shows that in 2015 the total number of EV's and Plug In Hybrids out of all the manufacturers sold last year globally was 550,000.

I won't be surprised if Tesla has 200,000 reservations by the end of the weekend globally.

That's almost half of all EV's and Plug in Hybrids sold in 2015!!!

The automotive industry should look at last nights events as a big disruption for them. Essentially Tesla just locked away 200,000 potential EV/ Plug in Hybrid/ and mid priced sport sedan customers for the next 2 to 3 years.

So every manufacturer has 2 years to come up with something more compelling to get Tesla customers to give up their deposits.

I predict the Bolt customers are going to be the ones that missed out on getting a Tesla deposit in early enough to meet the $7500 Federal incentive. The Bolt has the range and packaging to make it a great city car and the Volt has enough plug in range to commute all electric during the week and have the generator as a back up for long drives or if you live in an apartment. But overall the Model 3 seems to be much better spec'd performance wise.

Maybe other companies such as BMW's i3 can push for their 2 year leases which would work great for existing Tesla Model 3 reservation holders because the lease would end just as the Model 3 comes off the assembly line.

Haggy | 01/04/2016

It's hard to say what it will do for EV sales. Imagine that it's early 2018 and you see the car on the street. You read rave reviews and anybody you know with one likes it. Then you try to order one and find that there's a backlog of half a million vehicles. But GM can get you into a Bolt today, and you won't have to line up outside the store. By the time your lease is up, your Model Y will be ready.

jacobpmueller | 01/04/2016

I think you're missing the bigger point that this will be taking away NON-EV sales. My wife and I were looking at a used 328d, but the launch really pushed us into the EV camp...but only because it's a Tesla. The focus of the company, the technology, the safety are bar none compared to the other big automakers who are also making EVs on the side. I have no interest in a Volt, Bolt, e-Golf or Leaf but the M3 made us pull the trigger on EV.

I'd wager that the majority of sales if not the large majority were waiting for this car specifically and wouldn't have bought those other cars.

diegoPasadena | 01/04/2016

I imagine a lot of pale-faced Big Auto CEOs sitting at their desks today, wondering how they didn't see this coming. They *ALL* must understand this as a sea change. 200,000 reservations in a day and a half, many of them sight unseen. *That*, if nothing else, should make it clear that they had no clue about this market. Even the undisputed expert in this field - Elon Musk - is surprised.
They must be wondering, also, how they didn't understand that the public wants a sexy car, not an electric ugly duckling. Duh! *Everybody* likes sexy cars, and they did understand that for their other cars. Why not for EVs?
They completely mis-read this market's target audience. Tesla didn't.

Ross1 | 01/04/2016

For the next while, as you wait for M3, you will need a car. So why not buy an EV from an alternate manufacturer just to get you by? You would now hardly buy a gas or hybrid by choice, would you?
On that basis, all EVs available now will boom.
MS will boom too.

Boom boom.

Red Sage ca us | 05/04/2016

JAD: Luckily, traditional automobile manufacturers consider leased vehicles as 'sold'. Methinks there will be quite a few short term leases for LEAF and BOLT.

Ankit Mishra wrote, "Yes, it might reduce sales of incompetent EV but it will cause more damage to sales of ICE."

+21! Quoted for TRUTH!

wildpanda86: The problem is, traditional automobile manufacturers are fully aware that if they build a compelling electric vehicle to battle the Tesla Model ☰, their new car will also kill sales of all their own ICE vehicles too. I imagine that the arrival of $35,000, fully electric, 70 kWh, Supercharger compatible versions of the Chevrolet Malibu, Buick LaCrosse, and Cadillac ATS would be extremely attractive to some.

diegoPasadena: Indeed.

carlk | 05/04/2016

@Ankit Mishra

You're absolutely right. I can't imaging all of those 300K+ reservation holders were EV only buyers. A good portion of them probably were thinking BMW or Audi and they will not buy theose ICE's in the next year and half. Iit's Toyota, BMW and VW more than Nissan and GM that need to worry about this.

inconel | 05/04/2016

Poor Herr Krueger must be banging his head!

georgehawley.fl.us | 05/04/2016

Tesla is too small to be accused of overhanging the market but they may be able to that very thing nonetheless with the reveal of the M≡.

Morlandoemtp061383 | 05/04/2016

The only way I see traditional car makers catching up to tesla is partnering up with apple or google and a good battery manufacturer to fill another niche in the industry such as pick up trucks, or very small electric cars, and buying into tesla's supercharging network, or making one via setting them up in gas stations or fast food chains.

smiffy99 | 05/04/2016

It's all about the battery.

Who can compete with planned output from the Gigafactory? Anyone who can't has no hope of selling as many electric cars that can drive as far per charge as the models offered by Telsa.

Nexxus | 06/04/2016

@diegoPasadena, you said:

"They must be wondering, also, how they didn't understand that the public wants a sexy car, not an electric ugly duckling. Duh! *Everybody* likes sexy cars, and they did understand that for their other cars. Why not for EVs?"

I think you're missing the point. GM, et al., don't want to make EV's at all. They don't want to make them stylish so people will but them. They claim they are losing money on everyone the sell. They only make them for compliance reasons, so they can make more gas guzzlers they do make a profit on. Why do you think GM is only going to make about 30K/year of the Bolt? They don't want to make and sell a 1/2 million a year of them, because if they did, they'd be rubbing out their other sales/profit center autos.

Brian H | 06/04/2016

More Gigafactories, not more cowbells !

The SNL quote is "more cowbell", no "s"!

george210 | 06/04/2016

The traditional automakers have business models which rely on car maintenance revenues & profits - and the electric car mostly eliminates maintenance costs for/to the customer. I personally like to have an annual service contract with the car’s manufacturer “just in Case”. In the case of Tesla’s Model S, mine has just been100% reliable, Tesla’s service people check and update parts on their own. I trust Tesla that it/they will continue to treat me right with the Model 3.

I'm a Tesla-Lifer!

Red Sage ca us | 07/04/2016

"I've got a fever... And the only prescription... Is MORE COWBELL!" -- Chistopher [MICKEY FICKEY] Walken, 'Saturday Night Live'

PhillyGal | 07/04/2016

I nearly got into a BMW i3 lease a few months ago - 30 months was my target - that would allow me to ditch the gas car while waiting for Model 3. I thought it was a decent plan but no BMW dealer was willing to play ball with my trade in value. It would have cost me a solid $8k more to lease a BMW than to keep my current gas car and trade it in when M3 is ready.

But I did tell the BMW dealers to call me in a few months when those same 2015 i3 cars were still on the lot, since I knew once M3 was announced none would sell.

Red Sage ca us | 07/04/2016

PhillyGal: +1! How... shrewd of you.

Haggy | 07/04/2016

Not everybody wants a sexy car. There's a market for everything from minivans to whatever you want to name.

Red Sage ca us | 08/04/2016

Haggy: Hence, why Saab did not go out of business on day one?

;-)