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model 3 rollout sequence???

model 3 rollout sequence???

It is just my guess that model 3 reservations will be filled perhaps by the following rules: hypothetically thinking-
West coast 1st -31st AM in store preorders will be filled to those who already have a tesla.
Followed by all other regions with similar orders.
Back to West coast for all am orders that don't have a tesla in store orders.
Followed by all other regions
Back to West coast- all pm in store preorders who have tesla already
Followed by all other regions
Back to west coast to all pm preorders who don't have a tesla.
Followed by all other regions
Now after all preorders are fulfilled then will then proceed with after unveil orders in similar fashion.

This is to be the fairest to all. Just my guess as there are so many cars to build and deliver.
He didn't expect this many obviously. So he needs to break it down into smaller chunks to attack and deliver.
Because so many orders came in so fast it might be handled in 2 hr blocks.
Elon only guessed that approx 10k orders would be preorders-not 115k.
Knowing this he has to break it down more than he thought to be fair. Cars were selling at approx 22.5k/hr-that's a lot.
How I got this figure-
approx 100 us stores
5 sales people on average taking orders
takes about 1 min maybe 2 to make order=I'll call it 90 seconds or 45 orders/hr per sales person.
100stores x 5sales persons x 45 per hr order=22.5k/hr.
I know some of the stores probably faded off after 1-2pm and had another rush at rush hr from people heading home from work.
But this is meant to be an idea and not complete reality.

kzodz | 04/04/2016

Sounds fair, but will never happen. being that the company is run by capitalist swine (could a socialist build a car like this?) they will follow their #1 goal. Low hanging fruit first. The first cars to go out will be those that are maxxed out with options regardless of location. So all pre-ordered west coast top tier cars will go out first before slowly making their way east. Only after every single top priced car has been built and delivered will they start working on the next tier of cars. No $35k cars will be likely til 2020 even if you were first in line. Doesn't sound fair, but it's logical and the only way that the company can hope to make some profit on these in the short term. These cars have been priced based on certain assumptions of how low their costs will drop in the fture. Right now, they wouldn't be able to make a cent on these cars. By 2018 they are highly optimistic that costs will be in line. But either way the most expensive cars will have the highest margins and they are going to need all the cash flow they can get by then.

dd.micsol | 04/04/2016

kzod-Elon said this would not happen-loaded cars will not be first. It'll be by order for Tax incentive purposes. He tweeted about it.

dsvick | 04/04/2016

In fact, what he tweeted was that West coast cars would be produced first so that any issues with the build of the initial vehicles can be addressed more quickly. He said that directly in answer to someone speculating that waiting in line on the east coast would get you ahead of someone who reserved later in the day on the west coast.

Within each region though the priority will go to existing owners then, probably, to the higher optioned cars. There has been nothing definitive other than that, so anything else is pure speculation.

bjdraw | 04/04/2016

I think they'll send out emails for configurations sometime in 2017, then they'll simply use the reservation number as a metric which determining when the car ships, vs a formula based on time. For example, reservation number+zip code+configured value+number of others in your area that fit a similar criteria.

@rspencer 2020? So you essentially never expect them to make 500k cars a year, like they mentioned in the Model 3 event? At that number, they could ship the pre-ordered cars in the first 6 month. It'll take some ramp up, sure, but not three years.

danCE | 04/04/2016

Speculating on any kind of formula for how cars will be shipped is a waste of time. Tesla has provided general guidelines but their internal formulas will be far more complex and will consider many more variables, and they certainly won't share them with us. I can think of at least a dozen other considerations that might affect who gets their cars 1st, 2nd, whenever.

I'm sure after the initial launch on the west coast that we will quickly see cars spreading around the country, and with varying levels of addon features. There will be some basic $35K cars shipped early as well, so that Tesla can demonstrate that these cars are actually as promised.

dd.micsol | 04/04/2016

Q: Will someone on the West coast get a model 3 before I do on the East coast if I preordered and the West coast ordered after unveil?
E: East Coast car will be delivered first in this situation regardless of options. Preorders will always be first.

Haggy | 04/04/2016

It will make sense for Tesla to stick to the West coast only as long as is necessary to have a stable and uniform production cycle. Once Tesla can reasonably project output, they will be in a position to arrange to transport vehicles to other regions. So it might be possible for Tesla to have a roll out such as what the OP wants, but it might not be practical. It's not clear how many current owners ordered in person, but anecdotal evidence suggests that at stores with hundreds in line, the numbers might be from the single digits to dozens. At least that was the case at several Bay Area locations. If the number of owners who reserved in person is small, then I doubt Tesla would deliver in other regions before starting on those who ordered on line.

Tesla will have to balance what's fair with business necessities. As a stockholder, I don't want them making 30 cars the first month, having five picked up at the factory, having one sent to Cleveland, one sent to New Jersey, etc. without any sort of advanced planning for transportation or potential savings based on filling up trains at the factory or sending a truckload at a time to a showroom.

ctorrillo | 04/04/2016

I highly doubt it will be a complex roll-out algorithm. As stated at launch. previous owners & employees get first shot, west coast makes sense... you could call that whole phase of early roll-outs a "pilot". But then after that I think it's simply based on your order in which you reserved. There may be a tiny bit of logic like grouping a specific dealers next 10 cars, so that they can be built and dispatched on the same truck.

Any sort of complexity or odd roll-out scheme is going to result in a marketing nightmare and added complexity no logistics person would want to manage, not to mention the dealers would probably be pissed as well too.

Nic727 | 04/04/2016

Will they meet expectation for car production? I expect 700'000 pre-order before the end of 2017. I hope they will start production in early/middle 2017.

ctorrillo | 04/04/2016

One other thought - stock is going to be a big factor... e.g. say they are having supply constraints on a particular option package then those will be queued off to the side and next in line taken, as soon as stock comes in they would do fulfill those on hold in the order they were received and slotted to the appropriate dealer.