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The rationale behind I changed my Model 3 order to Model S

The rationale behind I changed my Model 3 order to Model S

Hi everyone~ after a lengthy wait on mode 3 and a test drive of model s pushed me to purchase a model s60, and I hope my analysis here might give you a insight who might find model s is more appeal to model 3:

Model 3:

Suppose the starting price is $35000
some additional 'must have' module for me:

Autopilot $2500
Supercharge $2000
Premium package HEPA filter, LED light,adaptive Light and stuff $3000
Sunroof: $1500
4G LTE connection for 4 years: $1500
GPS navigation package for 7 years: $1000

*Correct me if I'm wrong,I don't think Tesla will provides free 4G LTE connectivity and GPS navigation for mass. 1 year trial maybe, but 4-7 year? impossible.

total package: $11500

So the model 3 ideal price is close to $46500 before any tax/credits

Let's be honest, you can't expect to get the $7500 Fedral credit for most of the Model 3 preorders
And how about local rebates? might still there but might be less when time reach late 2018 $1500-$2500
referral program discount? I don't think so consider the huge volume here.

Model S 60 kWh:

Starting price is $66000

Autopilot $2500
Premium package HEPA filter, LED light,adaptive Light and stuff $3000
Sunroof: $1500

total package: 7000

So the Model S ideal price is close to $73000 before any tax/credits

Then calculate the Federal credit: $7500, CA local rebate $2500, referral program discount $1000

we're talking about a model S with $62000 and you can buy it right now
at the same time a Model 3 with $46500 or $44000 if there is any EV tax/rebates, and you have to wait 2 years.

Then what's the difference $15500 gives you:

More passenger space (5+2 child vs 5)
More Trunk space(1.5x bigger trunk and with larger power lifted opening)
Better motor (0-60 Mi 5.5s vs 6s)
Premium Look and feel: retractable side mirror with heat, automatic extend door handle with touch opening, better sound system and assistive system
Dashboard Display
17 inch control display vs 15 inch all in one display
Free 4G LTE connection for 4 years
Free GPS navigation for 7 years
Future upgradeable range(210 Mi to 249 Mi )
2 years early access to your Tesla

After talk with Tesla advisor and an hour drive test, I experienced all the magics in the newest version of Model s, like autopilot, auto parking, summon, I also have the chance to find many difference in 2016 new facelift model s vs old design. I never like the old model s facelift (black grill nose), and I think Model x looks kinda chubby from rear when actually see it in action. The new Model s fixed every aspect of the old one and inherited the better part of Model x (adaptive LED light, gear box storage and phone docker, HEPA filter...)

Thanks for reading!

sp_tesla | 24/06/2016

10 to 1 you working for TM or a TM AI.

mntlvr23 | 24/06/2016

Do most people think that 4G connection and GPS navigation are going to be paid options (simply activate the 4G for $1.5G to get your "Over the air" updates)

jamilworm | 24/06/2016

You seem to have made several assumptions about the model 3, and I am curious if you have evidence to supprt them:
- As mtlvr23 mentioned, if 4G and GPS are free on model S, why do you think they will be paid options on 3?
- Why do you think the S has a better sound system?
- I'm not sure what assistive system is, but why do you think it is better on S than 3?
- You can't know for sure that the dashboard display of the S will be better than the spaceship-like controls of the 3.
- Why don't you think the 3 will have future upgradeable range?

Anyway, it may be the right decision for your situation. Personally I have zero need for 7 passengers and want a smaller car that is easier to park. And I will likely have few upgrades and be close to 35k. Also an S you buy now will have the current version of autopilot sensors, and you may miss out on future autonomous capabilities.

SamO | 24/06/2016

Great logic. Irrefutable.

Me and my S60 concur and wish you happy driving.

#DriveFree

dachuyn | 24/06/2016

Congrats. If you want more space and want it now, that is the only way.

Plus, knowing your MS is safe after a few iterations is all one may need ... I would be a bit worried taking the M3 initially if the whole family is in it.

privaterbok | 25/06/2016

@ mntlvr23, Thanks for the reply, I can only derive this from Tesla's announcement and competitor's listing like Audi A4, BMW 3 series provides their car with $15-20 /month 3G/4G services. And Model S's 4G LTE is free for 4 years, there is slight chance Tesla will give it free (or free for 4 years) for masses, Same logic with GPS Navi.

privaterbok | 25/06/2016

@ jamilworm, Thanks for replay.

1. Answered @ mntlvr23 in my previous post.
2. Sound system is all about size, location and price, you can't expect a premium class have the same or lower sound quality than mid class.
3.Assistive system is like blind spot warning, auto-dim mirror, lane departure warning, windshield washer fluid defrosters. Those accessories is easy to find on premium cars, but very rare on mid class.
4. If we take a closer look at model 3's display design:
It's top left is the speedometer, it's pretty much tells Tesla have to sacrifice Dashboard display for model 3

5. I hope Model 3 will have better range, but it depends on battery production, and the evidence is:
If you upgrade a Model S battery from 60 kWh t0 75 kWh, you gonna spend a hefty $9000, That's a 25% in theory.
How do you think add such 25% more range and boost Model 3 price another $9000? Why not choose Model S in the first place?
6. I don't have plan to add 2 child seats either, most user here just enjoy the large trunk space.

Thanks!

privaterbok | 25/06/2016

@ dachuyn, Exactly, safe and sound. Model s doesn't have a good record for quirks, years of iteration and software update make it better, but same thing happening on Model x, could be happening on Model 3.

melinda.v | 25/06/2016

I would be surprised if Tesla has LTE/Nav as an extra charge option on the Model 3, and it seems the general opinion is the AP/SC/Upgrades prices will be less than the current S/X upgrade costs... So I would expect the Model S you spec'd would be closer to $20k more than the 3. IMO, the main advantage of that 20 grand is having it a year and a half earlier. the Model 3 is already much larger vehicle than I need, so the extra 2 kid seats and/or extra cargo capacity or larger size isn't a benefit. The Model S also would be too large to fit in my garage or my work's parking compact sized spaces.
For me, Paying the $1000 +/- a month for the time between when i could be driving the Model S vs Model 3 doesn't seem feasible, unless I had already planning on the price of the Model S prior to deciding on the 3. Which maybe you had...

warren_tran | 25/06/2016

^^^^

You forgot one important criteria: SIZE. Not everyone want a large car. I'm not willing to pay $70k for a car.

I rather put that $15-20k toward investment and possible get ROI to pay for the Model 3. I'm not rich enough to pay extra money to drive a bigger car and need instant gratification. I can also use extra money for my mortgage.

vp09 | 25/06/2016

privaterbok, nice analysis. I agree with most everything. Standing in line on March 31st to place $1000 down on a Model 3, Iooked at all the new Ss at the Buena Park Showroom and said to myself "hey I could buy one of those right now."

Still have the Model 3 reservation. The Model S is huge. Just way to big for our tastes. It barely fits in the garage. The Model 3 will be about a foot short and about a foot narrower.

vp09 | 25/06/2016

shorter

melinda.v | 25/06/2016

vp09 - a few inches narrower. The Model 3 will still be a wide car, just not quite as wide as the S.

SoFlaModel3 | 25/06/2016

The base price difference between these 2 cars is $31k. I don't think the S60 really makes sense. If you can afford you, the S has always been logical for you.

I'd love an S, but with options it's out of reach.

TeslaTap.com | 27/06/2016

@privaterbok - Cool analysis. The only minor error I saw is the Model S is a 5 passenger car with an option for 7 (5+2) for an additional $3000. The option does not exist for the 3 at any price. Likely 5+2 is not all that important for most customers.

Hard to put a value on having your Tesla sooner than later, but definitely nice!

PhillyGal | 27/06/2016

I'm glad the S60 is right for you. Welcome to the family!

Mike83 | 27/06/2016

The aluminium body of the Model S is expensive and I like mine. Great on trips as we can everything. Only downside is there is more room for my wife to buy more stuff.
Congrats. ;-)

vp09 | 27/06/2016

Melinda thanks for the correction. Wikipedia gives width at 74.2 inches est for Model 3, and length 184.1 inches est. In the article on the Model S, they have it as 196 inches long and 77.3 inches wide. So Model 3 will be a foot shorter and 3 inches narrower.