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What's next?

What's next?

I did a quick search and didn't find a thread like this. Which model should Tesla do next after the release of the Model 3? I personally hope they either do the next Roadster, or do a significant update to the Model S. I've had friends complain that the Model S is not as plush as a BMW 7. Call it a poll?

KP in NPT | 26/08/2016

I thought the Y was next. But nothing says Elon and the team can't handle more than one thing at a time. :)

Remnant | 27/08/2016

MY should be a slightly smaller SUV than MX, with many features not available when MX was designed.

For example, progress in mini camera technologies now allows for the complete replacement of mirrors with HD full spectrum (including night vision) cameras for rearward visibility, already legal in Japan.

MY will contain major power train advances. Improvements in electrode chemistry, lower operating temperatures, and form factor innovations have already allowed for batteries with increasingly higher energy densities. Battery capacities of 100-120 kWh, along with the faster recharge time allowed by liquid-chilled Super Charger cables will soon make Teslas competitive with all ICE cars regarding range and refueling times.

Smaller motors and regenerative suspensions (smaller by design) would also allow MY to become a Quad Motor machine, with fully electronic Torque Vectoring, which would reduce tire wear, increase range, and improve handling. A P120QL version of MY might yield a 400 mile range and be capable to send 1,000 hp (0.75 kW) to the wheels. realizing 0-60 mph times under 2.5 seconds.

brando | 27/08/2016

Replacing side mirrors not a technical problem, a regulation problem.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/advanced-cars/ca...

Lithium-Ion batteries, so history shows, improve 5-7% each year. Time will get you your 120kw, you can buy 100kw now in the Model S/X.

I wonder why the engineers at Tesla designed dual vs quad motors? I suspect they have good reasons.

Not plush enough? Why not install a custom interior?
Same with paint.

TeslaTap.com | 27/08/2016

Quad motors - adds complexity, weight and cost. More space may be needed too. Reliability might go down as a single motor failure on a quad will likely prevent safe operation. A single motor failure on a two motor setup could be drivable. That said, a quad motor setup would provide some benefits too, such as torque vectoring. No idea if this adds any range or not over a two motor design like Tesla uses.

Silver2K | 27/08/2016

I believe they are working on a pick-up truck and a semi, last I read.

UnshodBob | 27/08/2016

@Remnant - "A P120QL version of MY might yield a 400 mile range and be capable to send 1,000 hp (0.75 kW) to the wheels. realizing 0-60 mph times under 2.5 seconds."

1000hp is 0.75 megawatts, not kilowatts. 748 watts to a horsepower, IIRC.

gregcropper | 27/08/2016

The point of my original post was to find out what people wanted to see from Tesla, what they hoped would be available next, and not necessarily what they though would actually happen. Would you rather see a people mover (van), small SUV, supercar, or something else?

Remnant | 27/08/2016

@ UnshodBob | August 27, 2016

<< 1000hp is 0.75 megawatts, not kilowatts. 748 watts to a horsepower, IIRC.>>

Sorry to insist on my nomenclature, which is the conventional one.

Please check the conversion tables.

SO | 27/08/2016

Someday a speedboat would be cool!

And even a larger cruiser. Talk about gas guzzlers and pollution of exhaust going in the water.

Remnant | 27/08/2016

@ TeslaTap.com (August 27, 2016)

<< Quad motors - adds complexity, weight and cost. More space may be needed too. Reliability might go down as a single motor failure on a quad will likely prevent safe operation. >>

Space and Weight: Smaller motors, the elimination of mechanical differentials, the regenerative, non-telescopic suspension (designed to be smaller than the telescopic), and the compaction of the current inverters into a single, electronic, torque vectoring inverter (TVI) would reduce rather than add weight.

Complexity would only be in the circuitry and the SW of the TVI; various designs are already available.

Single motor failure should not be a problem as the TVI could automatically shift to 3, 2, or even 1 motor operation.

Quad R&D cost might be significant, but its manufacture cost would probably be less than the cost of the current power train..

David N | 28/08/2016

"the Model S is not as plush as a BMW 7"
.............I don't think the Model S was ever meant to be "plush". It's focus is performance,(driving) utility (storage & passenger) and beauty (design). Using those , now how does it compare to the 7?

Next Model? Dunno

torst1 | 28/08/2016

I look forward to see the Tesla pick up. Something beefier then the F150, with more power and options to trick it out with 38" tires and radical Fox coilovers.

torst1 | 28/08/2016

A new two seater, preferable designed in house from the ground up. Ditching the Elise.
This time a little wider and a tad longer. But still agile and nimble.

torst1 | 28/08/2016

I would love to see various two wheelers as well. Especially in Europe lots of people commute on motorcycles, mopeds and scooters. Many of these are 2 stroke or tuned up 4 strokes. Lots of emissions and in big cities on a sunny day with no wind you can really smell all the two wheelers. Imagine how much the actually pollute.

There are no major players in this market yet, and Tesla got the know how to make mainstream motorcycles and scooters that takes the electric commute to new levels.

We got Zero, a few smaller european manufacturers and a BMW I think. But we need Elon's laser focus to have a mainstream electric scooter and motorcycle movement.

brando | 28/08/2016

China leads the world in electric scooter sales, comprising 9.4 million of the total 12 million sold worldwide in 2013. There were only 31,338 electric scooter sales outside the Asia-Pacific region including Europe. The US market is comparatively small, with an estimated 2,000 sold in 2012.[68]

https://en.wikipediaDOTorg/wiki/Electric_motorcycles_and_scooters#2000_t...

https://en.wikipediaDOTorg/wiki/List_of_electric_bicycle_brands_and_manu...

PS Remnant wrote; "Quad R&D cost might be significant, but its manufacture cost would probably be less than the cost of the current power train."

You can't add parts and save money. Extra parts, extra money.

JeffreyR | 28/08/2016

@brando countered, "You can't add parts and save money. Extra parts, extra money."

I am not sure that holds true. For my servers a 24TB system could be 4x 6TB or 6x 4TB. The 6TB HDDs are much more expensive, so even though you need two more HDD trays, the 6x system is cheaper.

I think @Remnant is imagining that the quad configuration would need smaller, less expensive motors. Not sure if they would reach the less-than-half level they would need to actually save money, but it is conceivable.

I for one am w/ you though and think that a quad-motor configuration (if Tesla bothers w/ one) would be on their next-gen Roadster and cost silly money. I hope they keep it simple, and just have two big motors.

My vote for next is the Model Y CUV cousin of the Model X. I think it will happen next, and should happen next. I just hope Elon does not stick w/ FW doors on it. I cannot sit in the middle of the Model X. I doubt that would improve in a smaller version.

carlk | 28/08/2016

We always thought Tesla will do a Roadster II in the near future, after the Model Y SUV of course. However in the master plan part deux press conference Elon seems to say it is no longer in the plan. Pickup, semi and small bus are what they are working on right now.

Remnant | 29/08/2016

@ brando | August 28, 2016

<< You can't add parts and save money. Extra parts, extra money. >>

I think @Remnant is imagining that the quad configuration would need smaller, less expensive motors. Not sure if they would reach the less-than-half level they would need to actually save money, but it is conceivable.

Thank you.

Remember, my list of eliminated parts, beside smaller motors, included the elimination of mechanical differentials, the telescopic suspensions (the regenerative ones are designed to be less bulky and lighter than the telescopic), and those resulting from the compaction of the current inverters into a single, electronic, torque vectoring inverter (TVI).

jordanrichard | 29/08/2016

Next vehicle will be the CUV version of the M≡. I suspect after that it will be the pick up truck.

UnshodBob | 29/08/2016

@remnant - copies from the Internet.

BHP to kilowatts (kW) conversion calculator - RapidTables.com
www.rapidtables.com › convert › power
170 hp, 126.769 kW. 180 hp, 134.226 kW. 190 hp, 141.683 kW. 200 hp, 149.140 kW. 1000 hp, 745.700 kW

1000hp is 745.700 kW, which seems like 1000 times 0.75 kW to me. 0.75 kW is 1hp. Did I err?

Remnant | 29/08/2016

@ UnshodBob (August 29, 2016)

<< 1000hp is 745.700 kW, ... 0.75 kW is 1hp. >>

You're right. I stand corrected.

brando | 29/08/2016

Reminder: list prices and cost to manufacture are NOT usually directly related.

What do I mean?
Tesla makes their own motors. Small motor vs larger motor the only cost variables are the materials. i.e. The number of parts and labor are the same.

As for the rest of the drive chain, I'm not sure 2 differential gear boxes cost much more than 4 reduction gear boxes (one reduction gearbox per wheel, right?)

So I'll go back to my more parts, more money and I don't see any material cost reductions, perhaps/probably more material. I don't see any labor savings.

As for the electronics, I'd like to hear from an Engineer. As a laymen, I can't imagine a significant savings (i.e. not sure R&D costs worth the expense.)

Remnant | 29/08/2016

@ brando (August 29, 2016)

<< I can't imagine a significant savings (i.e. not sure R&D costs worth the expense.) >>

OK.

My comments on the possible Quad Motor MY were not meant to be firm regarding costs, but mostly to additional space, diminished weight, and probable gains regarding range and handling.

brando | 30/08/2016

Looking at Rimac, some of the videos on YouTube, I now better understand the technical advantages of a 4 motor system. Very interesting. Seems the supercar electric is here in limited quantities. But, they do have a goal to make about 800/year.

http://www.rimac-automobiliDOTcom/en/supercars/concept_s/

Rimac All Wheel Torque Vectoring
https://youtuDOTbe/bD2Do1gAuog

I suspect, but not sure, that Rimac might use Yasa motors. But like Tesla, they may be making their own.

Koenigsegg is a customer of Rimac (they are also good friends) and gets electronics from Rimac but uses Yasa motors for Koenigsegg hypercar.

http://www.yasamotors.com/

Rimac story is also interesting similar to Tesla. I enjoyed learning about Rimac.

Mate Rimac - How We Build The World's Fastest Car
https://youtuDOTbe/LP6g4bHHhS0

I suspect Elon may be more practical and engineers for best value, not just maximum performance. He doesn't make slow cars, but he really want to make as many as he can sell. Don't you think?