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Chance that Someone who camped out will get AWD delivered by 12/31/17? PRETTY GOOD - Elon Musk

Chance that Someone who camped out will get AWD delivered by 12/31/17? PRETTY GOOD - Elon Musk

@SuperCoolCube - Any Chance that someone who camped out overnight to Reserve Model 3 will get an AWD by December 31 this year?

@elonmusk - Pretty Good.
9:57pm April 1, 2017

Anyone think THIS is a April Fool's joke?

SamO | 02/04/2017

AWD in "6-9 months".

JeffreyR | 02/04/2017

Elon's statement about 6-9 months delay are confusing since it was not clear where the clock stated. Did he mean after the tweet (earliest), after Design Studio opens, after production starts, or after deliveries start (latest). This follow up seems to be good news. If early reservation holders will likely get AWD by EOY 2017, then the delay cannot be too much.

I'm curious to see if AWD and Performance options will be in the original Design Studio or not. It makes sense to me that they would w/ a note that production will be delayed. They did that for grey seats. Not quite the same thing but shows the willingness and ability to do it. At least if they include it they'll know the true demand.

jamilworm | 02/04/2017

It was unclear if the "6-9 months" he mentioned earlier was from now or from when deliveries for RWD began. If he meant 6-9 month from now, then this tweet kind of falls in line with that.

jamilworm | 02/04/2017

JeffreyR beat me to it.

SamO | 02/04/2017

The tweet makes clear that AWD is supposed to be delivered in 2017.

Whether Tesla makes that internal goal is IMO, not knowable this far in advance.

JeffreyR | 02/04/2017

@jamilworm :)
Just barely.

Carl Thompson | 02/04/2017

JeffreyR
"Elon's statement about 6-9 months delay are confusing since it was not clear where the clock stated."

I get the feeling a lot of E.M.'s statements are purposefully confusing in order to foster endless debate and speculation and thus help promote interest and buzz for the car! Free marketing...

Carl

JeffreyR | 02/04/2017

Good point. Also tweets are not exactly known for their clarity. I think the biggest deal was showing the change in plans from "highly optioned" first to simple for quick production ramp. Elon already warned investors that production ramp to 5000/wk will be when margins are inline w/ typical levels.

mntlvr23 | 02/04/2017

Watching PDXtroll trying to pretend to have more definitive knowledge than Elon is hilarious.

First he spends countless hours on hundreds of posts repeating his unshakable belief (as if it were fact) that low optioned Model 3'S would not be available to the people who camped out - at least until the tax credit expired.

After this position fell apart, he has been devoting similar hours and countless posts on the polar opposite - and that early reservers will not get a chance at the AWD option - now discredited - though he hasn't processed this yet.

What is left? Just his endless posts on Tow Packages, which from my recent drive through the mall parking lot, appears to possibly affect a tiny percentage of sedan owners. Worthy of dozens of posts? Nope, but when life offers nothing better to do ...

I cannot wait to see what other definitive information Douche can devine from Elon's tweets.

mntlvr23 | 02/04/2017

@SamO - thanks for pointing out this recent tweet. Great news for me.

Also good to see some original and unfiltered info for a change.

KP in NPT | 02/04/2017

Boo frickety hoo LOL

KP in NPT | 02/04/2017

I saw the tweet - great news for those who were worried about not getting AWD as an option anytime soon. It sounds to me like the clock started at the time of his tweet - fingers crossed it is sooner rather than later.

Carl Thompson | 02/04/2017

mntlvr23:
"First he spends countless hours on hundreds of posts repeating his unshakable belief (as if it were fact) that low optioned Model 3'S would not be available to the people who camped out - at least until the tax credit expired."

It's not fair to criticize anyone for believing what Elon Musk said. Most of us believed it because that's what Tesla said. Don't rewrite history.

Carl

KP in NPT | 02/04/2017

Again....lacking context. I'd point you to where you are wrong Carl. But most of Eagles posts have been flagged because they were flat out lies. Yes he took some of what what Elon said but then went beyond to all pit BS. just like he's doing now with AWD/no towing.

mntlvr23 | 02/04/2017

@Carl - lololololololololololololololololol
too bad the two of you don't have to pay per word.
Really don't have time to read too much od anything that you all post. Later

KP in NPT | 02/04/2017

Elon's tweets are the only official word besides communications directly from tesla. Extrapolations based on those tweets are just that.

dyefrog | 02/04/2017

Carl;
"It's not fair to criticize anyone for believing what Elon Musk said. Most of us believed it because that's what Tesla said. Don't rewrite history."
But what you fail to realize is that his relentless harping on what Elon said pre-reveal was made moot by Elon's post reveal comments. After blowing away all expectations of maybe 100k reservations, Elon re-evaluated the ramp up timeline and the reason for his earlier comment (generate cash flow as quickly as possible) was no longer applicable. After this was explained countless times, Pigeon continued his unrelenting commitment to the former as being "the plan" just like his currently ramblings on tow packages, solar roof, AWD, while being shown he is absolutely positively wrong.
So to your point, not only is it fair but necessary to censor his/her post when he/she continually gives credibility to outdated and obsolete information even after being shown false and/or invalid.
We are seeing the evidence of those false claims just these past few weeks when the initial example I gave has been shown that highly optioned cars (initial Musk quote) was superseded by fast track ramp up being the priority.
Quoting Musk in and of itself does not warrant criticism, but using it out of context, repeatedly, to spread FUD does. How is it you are so blind to this? You really should read the past conversations if possible to understand how asinine this behavior is and why there is so much loathing in all of Pigeons posts. Any way it can be spun to the detriment of the company is how it will be.

dyefrog | 02/04/2017

Carl, here's another gem to chew on.
"We know from experience that Tesla sets high goals and then comes close but doesn't quite meet them. For the T3, a goal of 25,000 to 35,000 T3's, none with AWD, by end of 2017 is very optimistic, per Tesla management commitment to Wall St and investors, Tesla won't let options like AWD slow production."

Elon just tweeted a few days ago that AWD should be available before the end of the year.
"@SuperCoolCube - Any Chance that someone who camped out overnight to Reserve Model 3 will get an AWD by December 31 this year?
@elonmusk - Pretty Good.
9:57pm April 1, 2017"
This is the kind of stuff we're talking about. He hangs his hat on information from 3 months ago and ignores a recent tweet.
Go ahead, defend it. I'll wait.

dyefrog | 02/04/2017

"He Tweeted we'd have AWD but now we don't.
He Tweeted we'd have towing but now we don't."
He also said he's building the Model 3 but we don't have it. Does that mean that in your world it won't happen.

"EaglesPDX | April 2, 2017
The Q4 Results conference was February 23rd, three weeks ago"
March has 4 weeks but certainly more recent that 3 months but not as recent as April 1st. Why are past projections more accurate than recent ones?

mntlvr23 | 02/04/2017

@dyefrog -
I made a rare mistake by taking a whack at the idiot tree today.
I will do better to remind myself to stop and walk on by.
Eventually, hopefully everyone does the same.
Discussion is futile.

mntlvr23 | 02/04/2017

@SamO - great post, thanks.

I have never had AWD before and was excited about getting it. Hopefully this tweet comes true and I will not have to make the difficult decision between RWD and quicker vs AWD and waiting.

But what the heck, I originally didn't expect mine to come until the end of 2018 - so end of 2017 to first half of 2018 is just gravy.

SamO | 02/04/2017

@mntlvr23

I'm glad that people can get what they want without having to worry about whether they'll get the tax credit. I'm glad that line sitters should be able to get the credit.

Now I have to figure out how I can take both $7500 tax credits in 2017.

Ross1 | 02/04/2017

Elon derives his income from:
1: A commission of 10c on each forum post
2: A fee for service of 50c on tweets
3:$1 for every fault on delivered vehicles.
That is why he sleeps on the QC station of the Production Line.

He is quite rich by now as you know

CraigW | 02/04/2017

mntlvr23:
Both SamO and myself - both having owned early S60s - can tell you that RWD will be an exceptional car. Having also owned an S70D, I can tell you I really enjoy AWD, but I much prefer to get my Model 3 early, rather than wait for AWD. It is driving the car that is the difference. Tesla was the best selling car in Norway before they introduced AWD and the Norwegians apparently were able to drive in a country with lots and lots of snow and ice.

Fine to want AWD, but to be overly concerned about a RWD Tesla is being foolish - IMO.

CraigW | 02/04/2017

You really need to understand your Tesla history.

Tesla once only offered RWD cars - it what the first couple of years Tesla was producing cars.That was the point.

SamO | 02/04/2017

@CraigW,

I'm with you. I'll take my Model 3s as soon as I can get them. I fantasize about getting one totally souped up.

Long range, performance, AWD . . . I'll just wait and see.

My first reservation will definitely be a RWD since those will be delivered first and I don't have the need for two dual motor vehicles. As you say, I've had incredible performance with my S60 in ice and snow.

I watched a lot of Tesla videos of snow driving with the RWD and knew that Tesla's vehicles were better. ILR Winter Driving School. Epic.

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-drive-a-tesla-model-s-on-ice-2013-3

SamO | 02/04/2017

Here's a link to the ILR Winter Driving School Youtube Channel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qhRBI8mQ3Oo

Eagles_Step_Mother | 02/04/2017

Oh, I am soooo sorry about my little pigeon being so much trouble over this anniversary weekend.

I'm at my wits end and have decided to kick her out of the house. I hate to do that to someone who is mentally ill, but she didn't come from me, you know.

We live in the woods. I got her a nice little shack just down the road a piece. It's Ted Kaczynski's old place. We've converted an old bird feeder to dispense her pills. Maybe that will help. Please cross your fingers for us all.

JayInJapan | 02/04/2017

Best chuckle I've had all day! Thanks

SamO | 03/04/2017

@EaglesStepMother,

Why was your step-son banned on TMC?

Eagles_Step_Mother | 03/04/2017

No one knows for sure Sam. But really, is it so hard to guess?

"He's" a girl by the way. People get confused because the operation was botched. He/she is really kind of a hybrid. That's why she follows automobiles. Poor confused soul. Thinks a pure electric car will solve her mating problems. Yet even there it's a love/hate thing going on. She had her fingers tattooed just like Robert Mitchum in "The Night of the Hunter".

Haggy | 03/04/2017

""We know from experience that Tesla sets high goals and then comes close but doesn't quite meet them."

Except when they blow past expectations, as they just did with deliveries for Q1 2017.

noleaf4me | 03/04/2017

I would be happy with a larger battery rear drive -- especially if had some performance boost versus the stock model. I do like the added performance and range of the dual motors -- but not sure it is worth risking waiting and losing the tax credit.

dyefrog | 04/04/2017

"Not likely as the 6 (January 2018) to 9 (April 2018) are from the July production date"
Your source?

KP in NPT | 04/04/2017

@dyefrog: EM said 6-9 months in a tweet. However subsequent tweets indicated he might have meant 6-9 months from the tweet date, like the one SamO posted in this OP, not from the start of manufacturing. Of course Pigeon ignores that and says it's the worst case since that's what he does.

SamO | 04/04/2017

Why won't Pigeon address why he was banned from TMC. I'm not addressing any more of his trolling until then.

KP in NPT | 04/04/2017

@SuperCoolCube - Any Chance that someone who camped out overnight to Reserve Model 3 will get an AWD by December 31 this year?

@elonmusk - Pretty Good.
9:57pm April 1, 2017

dyefrog | 04/04/2017

"Musk did say that MAYBE in 6-9 months from July Production (January to April 2018) it might be offered."
Again I ask. Your source?
the 6-9 months is not in question. What everyone want to know definitively is when does that clock start. If this was a private conversation you had with Elon, just say so.

KP post above is evidence to the contrary of your original claim that no AWD will be delivered in 2017. It seems as though you have added a caveat IIRC by inserting the word "initial" in your most recent prognostication.
"We know that AWD will not be offered for the initial 2017 run of T3's."
Does this mean that you know believe that AWD will indeed be available by EOY?
Pray tell, what other inside info did you and EM discuss. Enquiring minds want to know.

EaglesPDX | 04/04/2017

Again I tell you the source the recent Tesla Q4 results conference call which goes into these details. The links where in one the threads you and your friends deleted. To delete the source and then request it is disengenuous but as a favor to you I'll repost it later today.

SamO | 04/04/2017

@dyefrog,

I posted a transcript of the call in another thread. Pigeon is a liar. And banned by Tesla Motors Club for goat mollesting.

SamO | 04/04/2017

Molesting

Mollum

dyefrog | 04/04/2017

"Again I tell you the source the recent Tesla Q4 results conference call which goes into these details. The links where in one the threads you and your friends deleted. To delete the source and then request it is disengenuous but as a favor to you I'll repost it later today."

Are you referring to this one below that Frank99 alludes to?

"Eagles is a classic troll. As an example, this thread: https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/tesla-sell-25000-35000-t3s-2017-8
Go ahead, ask him to quote the statement from the conference call that backs up his statement of fact. I've done so, and been completely ignored. This is a classic style of his - claim a fact that damages Tesla based on a source that doesn't back his statement, then when challenged ignore or restate his claim over and over until people give up. That behavior has earned him a deserved amount of derision here. I don't personally believe he's in the employ of GM, I think he's just an ***hole who enjoys riling people up. He does occasionally write rational things, some of them I agree with. The most effective thing you can do to him is to ignore him. He thrives on the hate he generates in those who argue with him. Deny him that sustenance, and he'll go somewhere else."

Civicrick | 04/04/2017

Just got back from a service center and got the scoop from a tech. Dont ask me where cuz he told me theyre not supposed to talk about it and I dont want to make any trouble for anyone. Theyre getting literature and schematics to get familiar with the car. No air suspension and all m3s will have tow capability

Frank99 | 04/04/2017

Oh, yeah, what a way to throw fuel on the fire!

Captain_Zap | 04/04/2017

@Civicrick

Way to go dissing your source... if it is real.

Carl Thompson | 04/04/2017

@Civicrick

Now if you could only get us a copy of those schematics... ;-)

Civicrick | 04/04/2017

I'll go back tomorrow with my hidden camera glasses!

Frank99 | 04/04/2017

"Could you please speak into my lapel flower? Thank you"

bj | 04/04/2017

@SamO - "Why won't Pigeon address why he was banned from TMC. I'm not addressing any more of his trolling until then."

You know he won't address it, he never does. I find it fascinating that he has regularly been accused of being a GM astroturfer and paid to post here, and I don't recall him ever denying it.

SamO | 04/04/2017

@bj.

That's part of the Astroturfer code. Don't answer any question that would reveal your true motive.

Why would anyone spend hours somewhere that he dislike the product. I understand fanbois, but anti-fanbois?

We have some other names for that type of behavior.