Stormy weather in Shortville...

Stormy weather in Shortville...

There could be more to it than just a joke.

Here is one of headlines: U.S. Car Demand Collapses in Threat to Trump's Factory Push

slumping used-car values and a pullback in subprime auto lending -- that are changing the equation for manufacturers ... a glut of both new and used vehicles on the market has sparked an incentives battle, meaning new production lines are the last thing the companies need.

This is just as Tesla is preparing to launch its first mass market sedan.

Did the countdown for gasoline cars begin?

Madatgascar | 03/04/2017

Could it be that US car demand is collapsing because millions of people are waiting for the next big thing?

You have to imagine that in addition to the half million or so who made a deposit, many others are taking a wait and see approach, possibly in numbers that affect the entire market.

Ross1 | 04/04/2017

Why would one buy from the current offerings when so many concepts are slated for 2018-2020?

jordanrichard | 04/04/2017

This has been a long time coming. Nobody wants to own a car, they just want to rent, whoops, I mean lease a car that they otherwise perhaps couldn't afford to buy. So all of these cars are now flooding the used car market which drops the value of used cars, which in turn will affect the lease rates of new cars because lease rates are based on the expected value of the car at the end of the lease.

Al1 | 05/04/2017

Gasoline market was at all times high in 2016. It would be interesting to see where it will go from there. Quite possible only down.

Al1 | 05/04/2017


Aren't leased cars also reported as sales to fleets and leasing companies.

Nugget | 05/04/2017

Used car values were artificially high due to US sales from 2008-2010. When you are only selling 10.5M-13M vehicles, there are less used cars available 5 years down the line. Average age of vehicle on the road is still over 11 years and there are over 250M registered vehicles in the United States.

EV has tons of room for growth - needs to overcome infrastrucutre and capacity restraints.

KP in NPT | 05/04/2017

@Al1 - if you haven't watched this technology disruption presentation, it's worth your time.

He talks about used car values and a leasing bubble starting at about 35:15, but the whole presentation is worth a watch.

Al1 | 05/04/2017

@KP in NPT

Thanks. Pretty interesting notes.

brando | 05/04/2017

reminder of Tony Seba talk - electrification of transport by 2030 - disruption how fast can/will it happen

https://youtu. be/s0F4SobqxyU

brando | 05/04/2017

reminder of Tony Seba talk - electrification of transport by 2030 - disruption how fast can/will it happen

https://youtu. be/s0F4SobqxyU

jordanrichard | 06/04/2017

A/1, yes they are, but what has that got to with used car values, which is what I was commenting about.

carlk | 06/04/2017

And don't forget with shared mobility a single Tesla car could replace many ICE cars on the road. I really believe this is the reason why Elon is so eager of pushing out self driving cars. It will just make the transition to renewable energy transportation so much easier and can be achieved so much faster. And he wants to be sure he makes shareable EV before anyone could make shareable ICE cars.

Tropopause | 06/04/2017

Barclays just stated TSLA stock will fall by 50%. The cockroaches are coming out again.

Al1 | 06/04/2017


I thought you were saying nobody wants to buy a car, but want to lease instead. I read your post again and you clearly said "own" a car. I completely agree. Very good post!

I agree, people will wait and while they are waiting the downward pressure on ICE cars will be increasing.

Al1 | 06/04/2017

Barclays just stated TSLA stock will fall by 50%.

I hope it will. I will try to be ready by then.

As Warren Buffet put it "When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble."

Al1 | 06/04/2017

And I am just stating Barclays will fold. I mean who are these guys? Caught up between Brexit and looming Scotia independence they'd better worry about future of their own, not Tesla's.

Nugget | 06/04/2017

There are already shared mobility options - this is what Uber is. What % of drivers have given up private ownership of vehicles to use Uber or Lyft exclusively?

Frank99 | 06/04/2017

Al1 and Tropo -
I have an unflattering opinion of stock analysts. I figure if they were any good at analyzing stocks and predicting stock movements, they wouldn't have a day job. They'd be on a beach somewhere drinking from a glass with a little paper umbrella in it.
Anyone who was any good at predicting stock movements on the order of 50%, could take $1000 and turn it into billions in a matter of a few years.

codyb12889 | 08/04/2017

@Nugget I gave up car ownership a little over a year ago in favor of an e-bike for short distances and Uber or similar for longer distances. This is certainly a growing trend that is not big enough yet to shift stats on car sales in a noticeable way but will in a year or two. This is a large part of why the race to the self driving car is so heated.

bryan.whitton | 08/04/2017

Actually I drive for UBER in my Leaf on a fairly regular basis and many of my fares don't own a car. They use UBER exclusively unless they drive out of the area then they rent or fly and UBER at their destination. They consistently say that by the time you add up all the costs it isn't worth owning a car. They don't derive pleasure from driving themselves and don't see any advantages in individual car ownership.

RedShift | 30/05/2017


Rocky_H | 08/06/2017

With the recent climb in price this must be getting much worse for the shorters. | 08/06/2017

I'm sure they are all basking in their collective wisdom. Perhaps it's time for them to double down - hey, it's not their own personal money - just some poor fools they suckered into investing with them :(

222 | 08/06/2017

I'm super annoyed for investing in other things and not doubling up on my shares when we were at 200. I said I expected it to get to 350 by june on the other thread, but I guess I thought it would be smart to distribute risk to other stocks.