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Full self driving capability

Full self driving capability

What do we actually get when we pay $3000 for full self driving capability?
I understand what we get for the enhanced auto pilot.
It seems to me that we receive no extra functions. The only benefit is that I will have to pay more if I install it later and that it is unclear when legislation will allow.

LA-Fohlen | 22/11/2017

Currently, you won't get anything. You will save $1,000 but you may have to wait for quite some time before you will have FSD features available. On the other had if you pay right away, my understanding is that if hardware updates are required for FSD you will get them for free.

edhchoe | 22/11/2017

Buy stocks with the $3000 and you will make more than enough to pay the difference by the time self driving is activated.
AMAT and AMD to name a couple.

Daryl | 22/11/2017

There are a lot of doubters, including people who worked on FSD for Tesla and left the company. One school of thought is that the existing hardware is not sufficient, that something like LIDAR is necessary.

I don't know, but considering the current slow development of EAP, which is much easier than FSD, I'm not going to hold my breath (or let Tesla hold my $1000) waiting for FSD. If it proves out in a few years, then as edhchoe says, the $3000 invested now will probably more than make up for the difference by then.

However, I will pay for EAP. It seems to work pretty well on the highway and I think will be worth it.

Daryl | 22/11/2017

Let Tesla hold my $3000, I should have said.

Carl Thompson | 22/11/2017

Previously when Tesla had talked about the Semi they had spoken about FSD at the same time. During the unveiling I noticed that really didn't talk about FSD even though the Semi won't be available for a couple of years. That might mean that FSD is not coming along as quickly as hoped.

Also so far there's no word on the FSD demo we're supposed to get at the end of this year. To me it looks like the FSD thing is delayed and as other's have stated it's questionable whether the hardware will even support it.

I was originally gung-ho about buying the Model 3 and keeping it many years because of the FSD support. Now I'm still buying the Model 3 but I've resigned myself to the possibility I might need to buy a new car 3 or 4 years if I want FSD.

edhchoe | 22/11/2017

Nissan says year 2020 for fsd on their leaf. I watched youtube vid on that and it was compelling.

Gregergregen | 22/11/2017

I was thinking Elon didn't mention FSD at the semi event because he didn't want to threaten the jobs of truckers and enrage them.

phil | 22/11/2017

"I was thinking Elon didn't mention FSD at the semi event because he didn't want to threaten the jobs of truckers and enrage them."

You can't disrupt an omelet, without enraging some eggs.

RadOne | 23/11/2017

@LA-Fohlen

"my understanding is that if hardware updates are required for FSD you will get them for free."

I have seen a similar comment on other threads. I am not sure where this comes from. However, it is not stated in the Limired Warranty or any other place on the Tesla site. If it is not in writing than it is not any more than rumor. You can ask them to write it in on your delivery statement, I doubt they will.

Yodrak. | 23/11/2017

It's a wish that some hope will be self-fulfilling.

LA-Fohlen | 23/11/2017

@RadOne - I heard this before on other threads and you are correct. It might just be wishful thinking. On the other hand I give them $3,000 and then it turns out that the hardware is not sufficient for FSD I might be slightly upset.

Then again, I don't care about FSD at this point. Seeing some of the EAD tests on Youtube I think there is still some time to go before FSD can match all the situations human driving can do (I guess it some situations it is already better).

Sweetride | 23/11/2017

Does anyone think it is a good idea to buy FSD upfront?

Frank99 | 23/11/2017

As far as upgrading FSD hardware, Musk said "...if it does turn out that it requires computer upgrade for full autonomy, we will replace their computer..."
https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/01/tesla-could-upgrade-customer-computers...

I expect that, if FSD requires an updated computer, Tesla will upgrade all the people who pre-purchased FSD for free. I also expect that if you haven't purchased FSD, the upgrade cost would go up. Tesla hasn't promised anyone that the post-purchase upgrade cost will stay at $1000 forever...

Regardless of the HW upgrade, people who expect the post-purchase upgrade price to stay at $1000 have to recognize that, once FSD is fully functional and available, it's value goes up, and likely it's price also. FSD is currently a remarkably cheap upgrade compared with the cost of EAP, when you consider that the value of FSD is likely to be enormously higher than EAP. It wouldn't surprise me if, once FSD is available, the option price goes from $3K to $5K-$10K, and the post-purchase upgrade price rises to $10K even if no HW upgrade is necessary.

Sweetride | 23/11/2017

Any guesses on when the first features in the FSD package might be made available to owners? Perhaps there are baby steps beyond EAP that might be introduced in the coming months? Or is this a wait for a few years until you see any value?

Rutrow | 23/11/2017

" I also expect that if you haven't purchased FSD, the upgrade cost would go up. Tesla hasn't promised anyone that the post-purchase upgrade cost will stay at $1000 forever..."

I was wondering about this myself, but then I saw the configurator screen shots that have been going around. If it says $6000 and $4000 "upgrade after delivery" when you're configuring, Tesla will have to abide by that promise.

https://model3ownersclub.com/attachments/screen-4-png.4106/

Ninefiveone | 23/11/2017

That in no way constitutes a promise.

Rutrow | 23/11/2017

@ Sweetride. No guesses here. But if I see the price of FSD go up, THAT would be an excellent indicator that good things are a-foot.

Rutrow | 23/11/2017

"That in no way constitutes a promise"

But being written on a sales agreement, one page before payment details are entered would make it contractually binding.

Thank you very much.

georgehawley.fl.us | 23/11/2017

Invest the dough. For now I think FSD is FEI (figment of Elon's imagination). No one knows what hardware is needed because the rules for what really constitutes FSD haven't been established yet. The other mfr's will keep lobbying to raise the bar, stretching out the development time and adding to the computational and sensor burden. (Note GM pumping for redundancy) Elon will argue in vain that lives are being lost because of the delay. Not right or fair but life isn't fair.

Carl Thompson | 24/11/2017

@Frank99

I agree that the value of FSD is much greater than EAP. But I believe the price of EAP already incorporates a significant portion of FSD. With other manufacturers features equivalent to EAP (even if not as good currently) are just one part of a tech package that only costs $$2,000 or so. So $5,000 for EAP by itself is far more expensive than it should be. I think the reason for that is because a lot of the FSD price is rolled into it.

Tesla is at a disadvantage because they sell so few cars comparatively. So each buyer has to pay a far greater portion of the development costs for such features compared to other manufacturers. But if and when Tesla starts selling many hundreds of thousands of cars per year each buyer will need to pay a much smaller portion and the price should go _down_ not up.

So I don't see the price for EAP or FSD going up significantly unless Tesla is unsuccessful at becoming a high-volume car company and remains a niche car company for wealthy people. Rather the price for both should go down by the time FSD is usable.

Haggy | 25/11/2017

"my understanding is that if hardware updates are required for FSD you will get them for free."

"I have seen a similar comment on other threads. I am not sure where this comes from. However, it is not stated in the Limired Warranty or any other place on the Tesla site. If it is not in writing than it is not any more than rumor."

Elon Musk has said it on multiple occasions. It doesn't have to be stated in the warranty. The car has to function as advertised. That's the law. The cost of an upgrade might be a few hundred dollars, and spending that on half a million cars when a few hundred thousand people might go for the option would be a waste of resources. The computer will handle everything but FSD just fine and might handle FSD just fine. Any boards that are swapped out could be recertified and reused. For the thousands of dollars that Tesla will get for swapping a board and doing a software download, it will be far more profitable for them to do it than not to do it if it's needed.

carlk | 25/11/2017

If you have paid the $3000 Tesla will provide you the FSD capability with whatever necessary processor board upgrade it might take. Tesla could charge you more if you purchase the option at a later date though.

carlk | 25/11/2017

@george Using George Hotz's words the current camera system is good enough. The physics is simple it's just the implementation is hard. Him and Elon seem to be the only two who are able to see the physics but these two happen to be the two of smartest perons in this area.

georgehawley.fl.us | 25/11/2017

@carlk: I think you missed my point. I am not questioning Elon's mastery of physics. I am raising the issue that the dust hasn't settled on the definition of FSD for the industry. Suppose GM holds sway and 1:1 processor redundancy will be required. If so, Tesla will have re-architect their system. Camera system being ."good enough" per Holtz depends on what enough is. Suppose the requirement is established that the system must identify a toddler at 200 feet with 99% certainty and Tesla's forward-looking cameras and supporting processor can't achieve better than 85%. What then?

In other words good enough will be defined by the NHTSA working with industry. Until.that has been done good enough is just a matter of opinion, smart guy or not. Holtz might be right but he doesn't really know that.

georgehawley.fl.us | 25/11/2017

Sorry--Hotz.

WantMY | 25/11/2017

What happen when you paid for FSD and later car got totaled before it was even activated? Would get get a refund?

RadOne | 25/11/2017

If I decide to get FSD option, I will ask to have a statement written in on the contract that future upgrades are included and that it will meet whatever legal requirements are necessary.

Sweetride | 25/11/2017

Seems unlikely Tesla customer service would be able to approve one-off legal conditions. Nor does it seem likely Tesla corporate lawyers would go beyond what is blessed for all customers in the terms and conditions for the sale.

Yodrak. | 25/11/2017

"I am raising the issue that the dust hasn't settled on the definition of FSD for the industry."
This is what I'm concerned about, and why I'll get the EAP but not the FSD. I fully expect that the regulatory requirements for FSD will require, either directly or indirectly, more or different sensory hardware than current Teslas have.

"What happen when you paid for FSD and later car got totaled before it was even activated? Would get get a refund?"
What happens now when you (and your lender) paid for car and the car gets totaled before the loan is paid of? Or if you paid cash for the car out of your own pocket? Do you get a refund for the difference between what the car is worth and what you still owe on it, or what you paid for it?

RadOne | 25/11/2017

"Nor does it seem likely Tesla corporate lawyers would go beyond what is blessed for all customers in the terms and conditions for the sale"

The FSD upgrade requirements are not in the terms and conditions of the sale. Does that mean there is no obligation then? That is the problem.

Sweetride | 25/11/2017

I don’t think verbal hype trumps written terms and conditions. However, I personally feel Elon will feel a moral obligation to upgrade CPUs and software. I doubt if he would provide serious new hardware if regulators require it. For example, if the current sensor suite is insufficient I doubt Elon would provide replacement cars if the hardware or wiring harness changes resulted in a very high upgrade cost tantamount to the difference in value between the used car and a new one. I have no idea how a court would address the issues.

WantMY | 25/11/2017

@Sweetride I am pretty sure if cost is prohibitive - Tesla will simply refund the money and apologize. You can not force them with your money paid earlier, because of they could just refund it as no harm done to you or vehicle.

Sweetride | 25/11/2017

@WantM3, sounds reasonable though there may be some hard-nosed owners who could argue they only bought the M3 because of the FSD promises and seek more than a $3k refund.

WantMY | 25/11/2017

@Sweetride For those peachy ones - they need to read agreement for this option carefully, but as Tesla is the one writing it and they could not alter it - it most likely would be done in Tesla favor.

Daryl | 25/11/2017

I keep watching videos on YouTube of the latest release of EAP, and it's discouraging. On a straight highway it seems to work OK, but it often has problems with curves, sometimes lunging into the oncoming lane. If they are unable to implement something as simple as that, I wonder how they can expect to get fully self driving any time soon.

RadOne | 26/11/2017

If all current reservations, conservatively 400k, purchased the FSD option for $3k, would be $1.2 BILLION for a product that is not even usable. Nice. Even 1/2 or 1/3 (or less) the total is a good amount. Right now it is just a fundraiser. Can you get a refund after a certain amount of time and it is not implemented? What if people sell their cars before it is ever fully ready? You will never make back the total $3k. Invest the money for now.

WantMY | 26/11/2017

@RadOne Selling is the same as totaling, you will get a pennies on the dollar for all extra options. Same as any other used car. It just you never even got to use FSD while it took depreciation.

RadOne | 26/11/2017

@WantM3 Agreed. Just worse to never have used the option. At least give option to have money refunded at any time if not yet implemented.

weluvm3 | 26/11/2017

@RadOne
Yes, they should give the option to get a refund if it cannot be implemented within a "reasonable" timeframe.

Tesla could treat the money for the unavailable feature the same way they treated our deposited for our not yet available Model 3's: as a refundable deposit. That way, if, for whatever reason, Tesla cannot deliver on FSD with the currently available hardware (or at all), or if the buyer gets tired of waiting or decides to sell the car or whatever, then no harm done: they refund the money and everyone is happy.

But, once FSD is available, the buyer gets the option to convert his deposit into a purchase within some timeframe. If the buyer likes what he sees, Tesla keeps the money. Otherwise, Tesla refunds the deposit. If the hardware cannot support FSD, then Tesla could potentially ask for an upcharge, which would presumably be discounted over what any normal buyer would pay for the upgrade.

If you didn't put a deposit, then you could still purchase it later when it was available, but no guarantees about the price.

Tesla probably won't do that, but I think a lot of people would feel better about giving Tesla their $3,000 for FSD if it was a refundable deposit. I would have no problem giving them $3,000. And, if FSD was as good as I expect. then I'm sure I'd let them keep my deposit once it was available.

Rutrow | 26/11/2017

What is the depreciation rate on software?

No_ICE | 26/11/2017

Wish they would simply state whether or not incremental capabilities will be delivered under the FSD option or whether it is all or nothing. If they plan on rolling out incremental capabilities not available with EAP then FSD might be worth considering in the near term.

WantMY | 26/11/2017

@Rutrow "What is the depreciation rate on software?" - Same as Windows 95 or second hand games - fraction of original price.

WantMY | 26/11/2017

Or is you look Apple software it is pretty much Zero, you pay for it when you buy hardware. 3K is symbolic price to unlock functionality, every Tesla already hase all the hardware and software and you already paid for it.

carlk | 26/11/2017

@No_ICE There is no reason to think that it will not be incrementally delivered. You will likely be getting a hands off self driving feature but still with a driver in the car first.

Sweetride | 26/11/2017

I could imagine incremental steps, such as initially limiting the FSD experience to approved or supported routes. Seems like Tesla prefers in incremental steps when possible.

Haggy | 27/11/2017

If the car is totaled, it will go by the fair market value based on the used market. The used market might be sparse for a while, with people demanding more than the car is worth. If the insurance company finds a car that's comparable but lacks the feature, they'd have to add on what they think it's worth. I'd argue that a software feature does not depreciate since nothing wears out, the software improves over time, and buying it at a later date is just as expensive.

Brian B | 27/11/2017

@WantM3 @Rutrow "What is the depreciation rate on software?" - Same as Windows 95 or second hand games - fraction of original price.

Soooo, you mean I can sell a used copy of Win95 for 9999/10000 of the price i paid? Saweet!

WantMY | 27/11/2017

@Brian_B I wish I could sell you all my used cars to get top $$$$ on the software features of GPS and MP3 players. LoL

ReD eXiLe ms us | 26/12/2017

Giving Tesla a 'refundable deposit' toward FSD is as bad an idea as selling Model 3 for $25,000 and leasing the battery separately. Tesla is in business to sell cars. Complete cars. Complete options. Complete features. If you do not trust them to 'deliver' FSD in a 'timely fashion', you should not purchase that option. Just as you should not buy an electric car if you reasonably expect premature battery failure that would not be covered under warranty. Let me know when you get to rent a Ferrari V12 for your Alfa Romeo 4C.

salenotice | 20/03/2019

So, here we are 15 months later and still no mention of FSD but now they are asking for $2,000 upfront. Since they still have my $1,000 deposit from 2 years ago for a powerwall that I'm still waiting for, I'll pass.

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