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The Model Y Production

The Model Y Production

Now with the Model 3 production concern seems to be fading away, the next question is will the Model Y ramp up production timeline be the same as the Model 3 or even quicker? Yes, I know there are now solid information, but speculations or wishful thinking are welcome. When do you the reveal date will be?

reed_lewis | 26/12/2017

The ramp up will be faster than the 3 because it will be based on the 3. But they will not announce it until they have successfully filled the 3 backlog.

The reason why is so that the Y does not cannibalize 3 sales. Imagine you are a potential 3 buyer, and they announce the Y and say 'soon' Most likely you would wait until the Y comes out then thereby not resulting in revenue for Tesla.

Other companies have had this happen. They announce a new product and people stop buying the current products.

So, my prediction is that the Y will be announced sometime in 2019!

Bubba2000 | 26/12/2017

Competition will soon start selling SUVs, Crossovers BEVs. Many based on ICE cars. If Tesla does not produce a mass market small SUV, sales may go to the competition. Better cannibalize own product than have the competition do it.

georgehawley.fl.us | 26/12/2017

One could take the position that the potential market for compelling BEVs right now is far beyond the reach of Tesla to fill. They should bring the Y to market ASAP. The problem is the need for additional factory space and robotics = big time capital add requirement.

EinSV | 26/12/2017

My best guess is for a reveal in late 2018 (after Model 3 production kinks are worked out) with production beginning in late 2019 and ramping to roughly match Model 3 production by the end of 2020. Lots of wild cards here though with production of Semi and Gigafactories in Europe and Asia also in the works.

reed_lewis | 27/12/2017

Tesla already has a lot of sales just waiting for a car. They do not need to increase demand for their products in the lower end of the product line right now.

So they will announce the Y when the model 3 backlog has subsided. Perhaps at the end of 2018, or beginning of 2019, but I predict not before then.

KP in NPT | 27/12/2017

I would not characterize the model 3 production ramp concerns as "fading away." They have delivered to just a few hundred non-employees.

TeslaTap.com | 27/12/2017

I've met several Model 3 non-employee owners yesterday at two Supercharger locations. One I chatted with picked hers up two weeks ago, so clearly they are delivering cars to non-employees for weeks. Ratio of 3s to S/X was about 1:6 already at the Superchargers I visited (no waiting in either Supercharger location). I estimate Tesla will have shipped about 1000 3's in December alone (but that's my WAG). We should know the real numbers in 5 days or so.

TabascoGuy | 27/12/2017

I do not believe the Model 3 backlog will be met or will subside anytime soon. The more 3's that are out on the road will generate more demand which will lead to more production, and so on, and so on...
This stone has just begun it's long downhill journey.

David N | 27/12/2017

Given Tesla’s historical history on reveal, production time line,
First reveal of Y is late 2018, with First delivery in spring of 2021.
Semi won’t be available until late 2020.
Pick up truck reveal will also be late 2018 (at best) with a late 2021 (at Best) first delivery.
I think we all wish things would move faster but as Elon has said many times, “building one is easy, building tens of thousands consistently is very difficult.”
It’s too bad someone like Toyota doesn’t jump in with Tesla to jump start actual production. Let Tesla do the design and engineer, let Toyota do what they do best, supervise and coordinate production and quality control off the line.
We would end up with an advanced start of the art vehicle built by the strict QC by the best in manufacturing.
Sounds like a win win to me.
Unfortunately I’m sure it’s way more complicated than that which I mentioned. But heck, you never know.

jordanrichard | 27/12/2017

Bubba2000, name all of these BEV "SUV"s that are coming out "soon". I am not talking about concepts or PR cars. Do any of these have the travel capabilities of a Tesla?

jordanrichard | 27/12/2017

I will also add, will these vehicles be for sale in the U.S.

carlk | 27/12/2017

A lot of work is being done in the back I'm sure but at this point Tesla will be focusing on the supply but not the demand. When that balance changes it will be the time we start to hear about the model Y. End for 18' would be the earliest imo.

reed_lewis | 27/12/2017

Wow, @carlk and I agree! Cool! Supply is more important than increasing demand. They have to fill the Model 3 orders before increasing complexity with a new model.

georgehawley.fl.us | 27/12/2017

@David N. Actually, your idea isn't too far fetched. Silicon Valley companies have contracted out hardware manufacture for more than a generation. Cars might be tough. Also, you wouldn't want a competitor assembling your cars.

CC396 | 27/12/2017

Most estimates are end of 2018, production 2020+... so faaaarrrrr..... So there is a probable chance the roadster production will beat the Model Y???

Bubba2000 | 27/12/2017

Jordan,
Right now, Tesla has first move advantage with long range BEVs, including its Supercharger network, battery supply. However, the competition like GM, VW, Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, etc are waking up. Yes, they have announced concepts for long range SUVs or Crossovers. Rest are lame ICE converts. Public hi speed networks are being set-up in Europe.

Tesla came up with a simple design for Model 3, but the factory was expensive and complex... taking time to ramp up. Model Y needs to be simple based on the 3... and affordable. Will probably need another assembly line even if 70% of parts are shared. Not sure where Tesla will get the capital.

reed_lewis | 28/12/2017

If Tesla sells the over 450,000 model 3 cars that are pre ordered already, that will result in at least 22 Billion dollars in revenue. That should suffice to help jump start the model Y assembly line.

reed_lewis | 28/12/2017

If one is comparing Tesla's high speed charging network with anyone else in the USA, Tesla is in a much better place right now. They have orders of magnitude more high speed chargers than anyone else, and have more ports at each location compared to anyone else. While everyone else has one or two ports at a location, Tesla is installing 20 and 40 port locations.

That is something that no one else can possibly overcome.

jordanrichard | 28/12/2017

Tesla has another advantage over those companies you mentioned and that is they don't have a network of dealers to appease. Tesla on a moments notice can simply up and change the look of their stores, shift sales focus, etc. The traditional car companies are under a whole series of contractual obligations with their dealers and before anything changes they have go through negotiations with those dealers.

Sure those companies can build all the EVs they want, but unless the dealers have a financial reason to buy them, those cars are not going anywhere. Why would you as a dealer buy a product from say, GM, that was going to bring you less revenue/profit on the back end?

carlgo2 | 28/12/2017

@reed_lewis: If the other manufacturers decide to go all-in, and especially if they form alliances, they could put up vast numbers of chargers. The real question is if there is the commitment.

I just don't think MB, BMW, Jaguar and a host of others are going to expect their customers to charge up at random trickle chargers. They must have some plan to compete with Tesla.

Ross1 | 29/12/2017

The issue is not that the Y needs to be based on the 3, but that the machines producing the machines are consistent through model changes.

In other words, the car model can change, but what Tesla has learned and installed about robotic production lines needs to be usable on the Y as it is/was the 3.

Regarding the Semi and Roadster, dont be surprised if these turn up early as hand-built units, because the people hand building Models 3 up to date could be better employed building Roadsters by hand than going on a production line role. The price of a Roadster probably has a large cash component for being largely hand built.

These people also are well equipped to get some Semis built. Soon.

Hi_Tech | 29/12/2017

My prophecy: mid-2018 reveal of MY (with an actual prototype, like they did for M3 last year), with initial production to start late 2019 (Q4) in small quantities.

CC396 | 29/12/2017

Correct, another assembly line is needed, perhaps even another Gigafactory to support the battery demand. Also correct is, if Model Y was built on Model 3 platform, only little changes are needed, most of the skillsets, etc. are there, but back to point one, to build another factory will probably take a decade and obviously a decade will be too late regardless whether other competitors are serious about EVs.

CC396 | 29/12/2017

Correct, another assembly line is needed, perhaps even another Gigafactory to support the battery demand. Also correct is, if Model Y was built on Model 3 platform, only little changes are needed, most of the skillsets, etc. are there, but back to point one, to build another factory will probably take a decade and obviously a decade will be too late regardless whether other competitors are serious about EVs.

rgrant | 29/12/2017

Another gigafactory isn’t needed in the US. The first is still only a quarter of the final size. Interestingly the build out has stopped in the second half of this year. I’m hoping it picks back up in 2018. Elon did say they would announce more sites this year but nothing so far...

Remnant | 30/12/2017

@rgrant (December 29, 2017)

<< Another gigafactory isn’t needed in the US. >>

Perhaps you're in charge with the global BEV R&D, but otherwise how the hell would you know what's needed or appropriate for Tesla?

CC396 | 03/01/2018

Correction: The Model 3 production concern remains, though I am optimistic and a Tesla, the number of Model 3 produced as well as outlook, (as much fan and as much love for Tesla) the number looks a bit disappointing.

Update to the question: Is Tesla able to produce the Model Y to Elon's production expectations or there will be delays like the Model 3 is facing right now?

CC396 | 03/01/2018

Correction: The Model 3 production concern remains, though I am optimistic and a Tesla, the number of Model 3 produced as well as outlook, (as much fan and as much love for Tesla) the number looks a bit disappointing.

Update to the question: Is Tesla able to produce the Model Y to Elon's production expectations or there will be delays like the Model 3 is facing right now?

rgrant | 03/01/2018

@Remnant, wow did i strike a nerve? :) How can more be needed when the first isn’t built out? First things first!

And really, we’re just a bunch of anonymous posters on an internet forum. Obviously this is my opinion! Are you knew to this? My apologies... ;)