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Website estimate for model 3

Website estimate for model 3

The Model 3 specs on the main website say

As we ramp up production, deliveries for Model 3 reservations placed today are not expected to be delivered until mid 2018.

Hmmm.. I don't think so. I placed my reservation 30 Sep 2017 and the estimate is still late 2018. I think there's too much noise to update the estimate - I expect once production ramp is closer to optimal Tesla may do that. But no way someone who places a reservation in Jan 2018 is getting their Model 3 in anything close to mid 2018.

Shock | 09/01/2018

Agree. Tesla has consistently lagged the projections on the delivery estimator. At least twice now they have indicated multi-month delays to their ramp up and yet have not altered the numbers on the estimator. My estimates are unchanged since the last time (a week back) when they again delayed projection of the 5k/week rate.

jamespompi | 09/01/2018

I placed my reservation in December. My delivery estimator states late 2018 for all 3 options. As much as I would love to have the AWD option this year, I don't think its going to happen.

andy.connor.e | 09/01/2018

I think its irrational to expect Tesla to continuously spend energy updating a website estimator. As an estimator is to be expected, to not be expected to be completely accurate. Not only is Tesla not aware of how long its going to take to ramp up, because of the potential for unexpected production issues, but constantly updating an estimated delivery for the chance that its wrong and they'll have to update it again, all while getting massive publicity scrutiny about how peoples estimators are fluctuating left and right. Its all done to maintain sanity of both parties.

Remember, its just an "estimate".

Haggy | 09/01/2018

Tesla will introduce AWD when they have all other aspects of production under control leading up to it, and can integrate AWD into the build process. It's not as if they are going to wait until all non-AWD cars are built. Once it's part of the offerings, if your car hasn't been built yet, chances are it will take the same amount of time regardless of which version you order, once your turn comes up. It will be delayed by the backlog of orders from those who want AWD and defer their order from now, but that would affect you equally even if you don't get AWD.

rxlawdude | 09/01/2018

I can only point out that my "revised" estimate was Nov-Jan'18. Delivered at the end of Dec'17.

Has anyone with a "Nov-Jan'18" estimate not been able to configure?

enniplace | 09/01/2018

My original estimate was Oct-Dec ‘17, revised to Nov-Jan 18, owner, in Colorado. Still no invite.

PhillyGal | 09/01/2018

@rxlaw - Me. Still showing Nov-Jan but no configuration invite.

mikepisko | 09/01/2018

Still showing Nov-Jan but no configuration invite. No love for Philly!

Hi_Tech | 09/01/2018

@PG and Mikepisko - My theory is they are going to do deliveries to regions in batches, hence they may be sending out invites in batches by region. Just a thought.

jamilworm | 09/01/2018

@andy, you are probably right that it is irrational to expect them to constantly update the estimate, but then it is pretty idiotic of them to put an estimate there in the first place if it is just going to be obsolete right away and not get updated. It would have made more sense for it to say something like "reservations placed today are not expected to be delivered for 18 months" or something like that, where it might stay relatively accurate even without frequent updating.

burdogg | 09/01/2018

enniplace - when you do get your invite - will you be sure to put it on the forum check in thread? Please. I live in CO as an owner and they have my delivery estimate all messed up, but they say I am listed with the owners (Day one reservation). So as soon as I hear someone from CO getting an invite, I want to be able to recontact my person. They have me down for Dec-Feb estimate, which is the same as Non-owners in CO.

Thanks!

riverFox | 09/01/2018

@burdogg - I'm a CO non-owner and my estimate was pushed to Jan-Mar. So maybe you're estimate is accurate now.

Wlijohn | 09/01/2018

Ordered mine in 2016. Used to show Jan-March 2018. Now there's no delivery date. Hmnmn

12Brent | 09/01/2018

@Jordan I'm a CO non-owner who woke up really early and got in line. I have Dec-Feb estimate (originally Nov-Jan)

riverFox | 09/01/2018

I reserved online pre-reveal. I just want one invite to go to CO!

andy.connor.e | 10/01/2018

@jamilworm

Would you have accepted having no idea when to expect your car?

RichardKJ | 10/01/2018

CA owner near factory with a Nov-Jan estimate and no invite. Maybe tomorrow.

weluvm3 | 10/01/2018

@andy.connor.e We’ve accepted that so far...

Yodrak. | 10/01/2018

"I think its irrational to expect Tesla to continuously spend energy updating a website estimator."

Based on many posts in this thread it seems that Tesla is updating the order estimator, but only for the near term - which makes sense and is easy to do.

For dates that are, say, six or more months out I agree with you that there's no point - a new estimate may not be any more accurate than the existing one.

ebmcs03 | 10/01/2018

Can a current owner check and Share with us? My standard range option says “Early 2018” however I thought I seen someone post a pic and it says “Jan - Mar” for standard range.

I’m a non owner but 3/31/2016 reservation holder.

PhillyGal | 10/01/2018

@emchang - As of this moment, my long range still says Nov- Jan 2018; short range says "early 2018."

PhillyGal | 10/01/2018

@emchang - As of this moment, my long range still says Nov- Jan 2018; short range says "early 2018."

burdogg | 10/01/2018

I think they are leaving CO to the end - since we get $5,000 off, they figure we don't need the Fed Credit :)

(not really their reason, I know :)

henry.groover | 10/01/2018

@andy - I actually don't care that much about how frequently the estimator gets updated. It may follow an asymptotic approach where when I get toward the end of 2018 it moves ahead, and eventually it will settle down and I'll get my invite. I get that.

I was actually hoping someone who works for Tesla might notice the "mid-2018 if you reserve today" text and do something. This is not a huge energy investment. Since the general estimate range is "reserve today and it might be ready in 12-18 months" it would make sense to update that "mid-2018" text oh maybe every couple of months to "now + 12 months" which would be more like early to mid 2019. It just looks a bit careless and I don't think Tesla is a company that does things carelessly - if I was responsible for the website I would appreciate someone pointing this out. That's all :)

Of course it's an interesting discussion. If I was running things, I wouldn't try to update estimates until I had a handle on where the production ramp is going. Since it literally just started settling into an approach towards predictability within the last few weeks, and outsiders like me cannot even guess what other types of factors they may be looking at internally, I would expect that AFTER production has hit and maintained a fairly solid rate, someone will re-run the queries to regenerate estimate dates...

andy.connor.e | 10/01/2018

Its also an extremely inconsequential existence that the page says Mid-2018 for new reservations. But then there are those that might try to say "it will give someone the wrong idea", and perhaps it will, if someone happens to have never ventured on their website at all, and managed to make a reservation without seeing anything other than that particular message. Then i suppose maybe that could give someone the wrong idea. So if that were to happen, then i would ask the question, "how much energy did you put into self-education prior to your reservation?". And i believe that question will be self-explanatory to one's hypothetical problems.

matt80206 | 10/01/2018

Non owner 1st day reservation holder, and yea CO is pushed back mine says Jan-mar 2018 for rwd oct-dec awd still... no changes, but with that last article I don't think it will happen till later... bought a bmw 530e to tide me over though till end of the year... BMW service SUCKS don't buy one, common Tesla...

accentcreate | 11/01/2018

@henry.groover Hey, I placed my reservations way ahead of the east or west coast on 31 March 2016 and there is no way I'm going to be happy if somebody who made theirs on 30 Sept 2017, ie a year and a half later, gets their invite before me. My European estimate is late 2018 and my Aussie estimate is sometime 2019. So much for being first in line.
To add insult to injury, in Aus we don't get any federal tax rebate but a 15% 'luxury car tax' on top of import duty and sales taxes.

Nexxus | 11/01/2018

Hey guys, this just in:

"Dear Model 3 enthusiasts, concerning the Model 3 roll out. We've decided to concentrate on West / East Coast deliveries for now, since that is where the most previous owners are. We're skipping Philadelphia and the state of Colorado (for now) because, well... you just don't count. Please keep drinking the koolaid and we'll get to you, wait for it......soon."

;-)

By the way, we're in Virginia and haven't gotten our invite yet either.

2015P90DI | 11/01/2018

Does seem kind of crappy that people that were so dedicated to take a chance on a car that hadn't even been shown to the public yet weren't given equal priority. I understand the employees first. I understand giving existing owners priority as a thank you. But think that EVERYONE who was willing to go stand in line on 03/31/16 before the reveal should be given equal priority, regardless if you are an owner or not or on the west coast or east coast. Anyone that dedicated should have earned first crack at the car, regardless. For the rest of the reservations that took place after the reveal, OK fine, give priority to existing owners and west coast reservation holders. Seems like it was pointless for non-owner, east coasters to go stand in line. Yes, they'll be first in line of other non-owners on the east coast, but seems wrong that existing owners who didn't commit on the first day are getting their cars before those that did. Just my two cents. Of course I have no complaints as I got my two cars. And of course Tesla pre-announced what order reservations would be given priority, so they've done nothing wrong. Just feel bad for those that were so dedicated to take a chance on a car sight unseen having to wait longer than others who weren't quite so dedicated.

Madatgascar | 11/01/2018

It would seem to be easy for Tesla to program all the estimated delivery verbiage on their website so that they at least have their story straight across all pages. But when you start dealing with different options packages, geographic areas, changing production ramp estimates, prioritization, etc it becomes pretty complex. The most basic estimator should probably show a large range and explain the all the variables.

Oh I forgot the most important variable: if another company actually came out with a legit competing product, wait times could be substantially reduced.

Hi_Tech | 11/01/2018

You do know the formula Tesla uses has a multiplier for how many bad things you've said about them on all forums.

SCCRENDO | 11/01/2018

You guys are like inpatient children. At most your guys will be 4-6 weeks behind the West Coast. In the short term it seems like a big deal. In the long term who cares.

burdogg | 11/01/2018

@Nexxus - thanks for the laugh - the Kool-Aid sugar high sure does help :)

andy.connor.e | 11/01/2018

We're going to need alot more koolaid. Oh yeah

jman | 11/01/2018

Andy great point about the "estimator" cause that is what it is......
Live in Mass had my config ability for a whole week now....haven't figured out which is worse NOT getting the invite at all yet...OR having the invite and making the decision to wait for AWD being in New England...
The more I think about it the more I may pull the trigger and get it sooner rather than later...thoughts?? The cool aid IS delicious !!!!!!!

andy.connor.e | 11/01/2018

Get what you want. I am going to wait for White interior, because thats what i want. I am not going to settle. I already have a car, and getting it sooner would be nice, but getting it sooner thats not what i want is not worth it to me. Yes its an EV, but its a car. Its a thing. And if some 6-8 months is the only thing standing in between me getting exactly what i want, thats a pretty small "price"(if you will) to pay.

At least thats my take on it.

badaman | 11/01/2018

@jman - 100% wait to get what you want. You will be much happier!

Colatabajonies | 11/01/2018

@jman, I’m in MASS and would totally swap reservations with you if you’re gonna wait! I’m not far behind, dec-feb.

Yodrak. | 11/01/2018

"You do know the formula Tesla uses has a multiplier for how many bad things you've said about them on all forums."

Yes, I read on Bloomberg that Tesla has issued a contract to Santa to report on who's been naughty and whose been nice with respect to Tesla.

cardelljones | 11/06/2018

How long from reservation is the configuration
?