When should we expect Model X is showrooms, well, Galleries?
The prototype has already been shown in those locations over the past couple of years. One of those was on display in the lobby of the Hawthorne Design Center recently. I expect that in the later months of this year -- September, October, November & December -- production examples will appear in stores/galleries. They may not be available for test drives until early 2015 though. It depends upon how quickly they are able to ramp up production on Model X, and whether people will be able to stomach a six, nine, or twelve month wait for an order.
RS: do you mean wait after reservation rather than order? I expect the order lead time to delivery to be something like three months.
I was speaking of new orders, placed after production prototypes appear across the nation this Fall 2014 in Tesla Stores and Galleries. Sorry for the rather confounded sentence. I was likely half asleep when I composed it. ;-)
I have a strong belief that some very lucky people who reserved early on, at the Model X Reveal, are going to receive theirs in time for Christmas 2014.
I do expect that Model X production will ramp up much more quickly than did the Model S. But I also believe a relative shortage in availability of battery cells may keep Tesla Motors from really rolling along as they would prefer on Model X.
Please note that I am very hopeful for Model X. I think the Fremont Facility will be capable of building 150,000 of them per year before the end of 2016. I believe the Model S will be artificially capped at around 50,000 per year. I think that will allow for higher sales of the Model X, and increased overall capacity to take on Generation III production.
This thread has wandered from the initial question the answer to which is probably around Christmas of this year.
Batteries are the heart of the matter, their cost, availability, capacity, environment tolerance and life. Tesla Motors continued rise hinges on getting all those things right. They hired a young PhD who is a whiz at battery chemistry and physics, especially the Li ion family. Two electrodes and the magical soup of ingredients that make up the electrolyte. It appears that Tesla has a very good recipe. Nissan, on the other hand, may need to make some changes. All the patents mean little next to perfecting the recipe and keeping it secret, kind of like Coca Cola did with sugar water.
Fremont has plenty of capacity. No need to limit S, if worldwide demand continues, with cost wrung out. X will have early bugs of its own and will take some time to perfect. Sales volume will be limited by price out of reach of the vast majority of buyers. Gen III and high volume battery production will be the volume play. The company just needs to survive until that little bugger becomes profitable.
But don't forget the GenIII-X. That's a whole new market!
You are right, Brian. I think Tesla can grow to almost $5.5 billion in revenues by the end of 2015. If they don't experience any major hiccups between now and then, they will be poised to really ramp up the Gen III variations in 2016 but we're talking way over a billion 18560 cells needed in 2016 alone. Come on, Gigafactory!!!