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Tesla Faces No Competition and No Actual Flood of Competition Coming

Tesla Faces No Competition and No Actual Flood of Competition Coming

Tesla skeptic and author of "boneheaded" question, Tony Sacconaghi, says: "Let’s make this clear: there is no actual flood of competition coming. We tallied up every announced electric vehicle arriving in the U.S. between now and 2022, and the results were stark.” He claims incumbent automakers will help “validate and expand the existing market for electric cars” rather than hampering Tesla with their own electric-vehicle launches.

The analysts also demolished a case for General Motors' Chevy Bolt being a competitor for the Model 3.

“While matching the range and price point of the Model 3, the Bolt arguably remains a lower-end car, without the luxury nameplate, the styling, the performance, or even the electronics offered by Tesla,” they said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-has-no-credible-competition-anal...

Charging
Batteries
Styling
Technology
Self Driving
Reputation
Innovation

Tesla.
Faces.
No.
Competition.
And.
No.
Competition.
Coming.

Frank99 | 17. syyskuu 2018

Great find, SamO, thanks.

I love that decent EVs like the i.Pace and Polestar 2 are coming online; but they certainly don't presage a flood of competition...

2015P90DI | 17. syyskuu 2018

And then you have this article....

It's all perception and what each individual deems as a competitive "option".....

https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/tesla-model-s-model-x-tougher-competit...

Mike83 | 17. syyskuu 2018

GM still has trouble with electronics to power steering(over 1 Million recalled including it's Escalade) along with ignition switch. Jag is not known for making dependable electronics. Batteries are another big issue.

In addition all the ICE makers are experts in engines, turbos, mufflers, injectors, fuel tanks, etc. which are not necessary in EVs which is much simpler to make and fewer parts.

So I have to agree with SamO that there is nothing coming to compete with Tesla which is not standing still.

I even think it will take more than 5 years for any competition to challenge Tesla which is too bad but the big three have themselves to blame like in the past letting Honda and Toyota speed ahead while they were making hummers and other vehicles that cost too much to use and maintain.

SamO | 17. syyskuu 2018

Shocking how bad the "competition" is and how unprepared the world is for Tesla to be the biggest carmaker on the planet.

apodbdrs | 17. syyskuu 2018

It is going to take the competition awhile because they are designing their cars too much like ICE vehicles. Where as TESLA, if you remove the body, it is very simple; a drive unit, battery, wiring harneses, and a few electonic boards, almost bare . If do the the same for the new EVs they are complicated, with a transmission, and lots of mechnical stuff. The same for the inside of the car, TESLA controls almost everything from the display screen. Knobs and switches continue on the competion. TESLA moving way ahead with software, the competion is still to embrace software. Younger people will certainly move to TESLA until the others catch up!

gballant4570 | 17. syyskuu 2018

I would submit that these facts are patently obvious, to even the most casual observer..... however

It is heartening to see that Porsche is seriously moving into charging. It is also heartening to see that, in a few more years, we may actually see some serious efforts at real EV production, beyond blather.

THE MISSION NEEDS THEM ALL.

carlk | 17. syyskuu 2018

Porsche is all "unveiling" but there is still nothing real in sight. Funny that no one says it's over promise and under delivery.

Lbrooks51115 | 17. syyskuu 2018

I disagree with this conclusion of this article and that's coming from someone who one week ago traded their Bolt for a M3. I am telling you all right now the Bolt is a great car and it is a blast to drive. Does it compete with the Tesla? Not a chance because they are different segments. The Tesla is today 45k car with the expiring tax break while a Bolt can be had for 26-27k with an expiring tax break. That's like comparing a Camry to a Lexus LX. It's a different buyer and a different market segment. Now the one thing right now that separates Tesla from the Bolt is the super charger network which is why I switched. If the Bolt had a supercharger network I would not have traded my Bolt because IMO 45k is too much to spend on a car...Even an M3 and most Americans would agree...

Frank99 | 17. syyskuu 2018

I 100% agree with you LBrooks, and I've never owned a Bolt. Every review I've read says it's a great car, fun to drive, that works great as a city/suburban car. With a Supercharger network, it would be complete - still in a different class than the Model 3, but a near-perfect car in the Camry class. There's a lot of people on here who hate on the Bolt, but it doesn't deserve it - it's an excellent EV leader.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 17. syyskuu 2018

SamO: A great topic. It encompasses much of what I have told Trolls around here for years. Typically, I challenged them with, "Oh? What 'competition'? Where is it? Show it to me." I'm still waiting. When someone finally designs a fully electric car designed to 'kill' what they perceive as their own best effort at ICE? Then I'll believe them. Otherwise? Nope. None of the traditional automobile manufacturers want their best selling car to be fully electric at any price point or market segment. Their identity is forever tied to ICE.

Frank99: I think the I-Pace was a surprise. I expect it will outdo the AUDI and Mercedes-Benz efforts by a wide margin, while still falling behind Tesla in sales. Of course, the exclusivity and rarity of it may appeal to some.

2015P90DI: I refer to Pride, Prejudice, and Perspective when speaking of how traditional automobile manufacturers tend to approach electric vehicles. They perceive, still, Tesla's success over the past six years as a fad. They believe too much of their own regurgitated, recycled, and reused copy. Because they have come to feel that 'doing things right' is truly about controlling perception and manipulating the narrative. A good bit of complacency arises from claiming you are the 'best', saying you are the 'finest', telling everyone your work is about 'prestige' that marks your 'heritage' and denotes 'luxury' and 'craftsmanship' and 'excellence' and 'elegance' and 'exclusivity' and blah, blah-blah, blah, blah, blah... But it all comes to naught in the face of innovation.

Mike83: ICE manufacturers largely gave up their expertise on individual components and accessories to third party suppliers long ago. ZF, BOSCH, Englebrock, Holley, Brembo, Paxton, Borla... So many names and none of them can help with electric vehicles.

Chrysler/Dodge/RAM had made a good match with FIAT, a company that shared their philosophy of 'BURN THOSE DINOSAURS! WE'LL MAKE MORE!" None of their executives believe in fuel economy or emissions controls at all. If they had it their way, it would all be about fire, smoke, and motion. They think they can sell gas guzzlers to an infinite and unlimited market of gearheads, and would happily do just that if not for regulations imposed by mean, fun hating environmentalists. Because you can always find room for a bigger gas tank, right?

SamO: Not too shocking. I've known it would be like this for years. Traditional automobile manufacturers said for decades that fully electric cars were decades away, up to 100 years into the future, and that there was 'plenty of gas'. Soon, the guys selling that plenty of gas will be sitting at $18.00 per gallon, going bad in underground holding tanks, wondering where all their Customers went. Someone will have to explain to your grandchildren why petroleum was called 'black gold' once, in the olden times.

apodbdrs: That's what tradition does for you. Things are built a certain way out of habit, not because anyone examined them and asked... "Why?" Examination, determination, and innovation are closely related.

gballant4570: Something is better than nothing. I'm not so certain as to how 'serious' AUDI, PORSCHE, & Volkswagen really are about EVs and EV infrastructure. We'll see.

billtphotoman | 18. syyskuu 2018

I agree that Tesla doesn't really have competition but other than mentioning the value the Tesla brand has this article didn't make a very strong case. Others in this thread are doing a better job. I don't view Bolt/Leaf as Model 3 competitors because their actual sales prices and target buyer are totally different. A BEV Bolt isn't a natural model 3 competitor any more than a Cruze is a natural BMW 3 series competitor just because both cars have engines. Comparing main stream hatch backs to entry level luxury sedans seems pretty silly to me. Sure the Bolt has an entry level luxury like MSRP but Bolts sell for far under that and once Tesla starts selling the $37.5K delivered in any color but black I predict the MSRP of the Bolt will come down to maintain at least $7.5K of MSRP separation and >$10K in ASP separation. The company that really puzzles me is Nissan. I think they have found a nice niche for the Leaf and as a 2nd car in the US or in countries where 150 miles of range are enough it is a pretty compelling offering at the price it actually sells for (mid-20s -30K *before* rebates). But, I am amazed Nissan doesn't have concrete plans for a BEV Infiniti by now. It seems like they are just sitting there dumbfounded watching the model 3 take over the entry level luxury sedan market when they have the BEV experience to at least try and field a competitor. Jaguar's offering seems pretty competitive but I don't see how they overcome the GigaFactory advantage for scale/price and the lack of a SuperCharger network will hold back some percentage sales even though I think that is somewhat overrated given how many people who own $70K+ cars own more than one car.

spuzzz123 | 18. syyskuu 2018

I hope there's competition coming -- if not, then it means EV tech is really still a niche market and Tesla is not disrupting anything.

KP in NPT | 18. syyskuu 2018
M3BlueGeorgia | 18. syyskuu 2018

Looks like Audi dropped an electric drivetrain into an ICE platform.

That front end is the opposite of aerodynamic. I presume the rear isn't any better.

Since VW seem determined to make EV versions of their ICE vehicles, they'll also crash and burn.

spuzzz123 | 18. syyskuu 2018

This looks like really good news to tesla investors and it echoes what a lot of forum users have been saying all along (that tesla has a HUGE lead). But of course CNBC has to throw in the big hairy BUT tesla is still way overvalued and doesn’t have the demand it needs to meet forecasted sales. Meh.

KP in NPT | 18. syyskuu 2018
SamO | 18. syyskuu 2018

Audi CEO rots in jail awaiting trial for (murder) fraud and environmental crimes as well as SEC/Securities violations.

#TeslaKiller

Lbrooks51115 | 18. syyskuu 2018

I don't mean to sound like as@ but not sure where all the insecurity around other EVs competitors are coming from I want broad EV adoption which means I want Tesla to succeed as well as its competitors. Tesla is a tremendous piece of machnary But a price point of 50k for a non SUV isn't going drive wide EV adoption. The way the EV market will take off is with multiple competitors pushing each other to be better and to produce cheaper are more widely available product...

Xerogas | 18. syyskuu 2018

@SamO: Bob Lutz says you’re wrong. Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/tesla-is-headed-for-the-graveyard-predic...

....what a putz he is!

bigroccrek | 18. syyskuu 2018

Not a naysayer, and my M3 is supposed to delivered in 11 days....but given that Lucid just secured a $1B investment from Saudi Arabia (I think Elon was trying to get that done a couple weeks ago) they certainly are a company that is gunning for the Model S segment right now. They have a charging network issue that Tesla is way out in front on but they seem to be a sound company with a sound vision. We shall see...

WantMY | 18. syyskuu 2018

@SamO Give it some time, troll. Musk will join Audi CEO soon, so they will rot in jail together. DOJ just opened criminal investigation on stable genius.

KP in NPT | 18. syyskuu 2018

@Lbrooks - in my case, I'm not against other EVs, I've been so far disappointed with the EVs put forth as Tesla killlers which are on par with a 2014 Model S at best, in some ways even worse, so will be all the more outdated in 2020 when they actually hit the market.

They just don't seem serious.

gballant4570 | 18. syyskuu 2018

Sometimes legacy tech experience is not good for developing new tech. Too many cannot leave the old tech behind, and just use their experience where applicable. I've seen new tech projects killed by placing too much value on legacy tech experience.

This is likely the main reason Tesla is out in front. And will stay there. BUT THE MISSION NEEDS THEM ALL.

greg | 18. syyskuu 2018

There is an old saying in show business that "Everyone good needs somewhere to be lousy [at] first".

Its as true for making electric [and ICE] cars as it is for everything else.

Tesla kind of made lots of those "lousy" and rookie mistakes early on with the Roadster using a Lotus Elise platform, putting a gearbox in the drive line, using someone elses lousy batteries before they decided they had to make their own, using lots of outsourced parts like seats instead of making them in house, the Model X with too much Tech and the Model 3 with 2170 cells which needed too much automation dependency and reliance on world class robotic suppliers who couldn't deliver, or relying on third parties for fast charging infra to support long distance driving.

And likely in the future with the Model Y with reduced wiring who knows til they sort it out.

But they've made many of those mistakes, so can now move on knowing they control their destiny a lot more than most.

And the ICE makers made their mistakes decades ago, if they even remember making them.

But ICE makers now making EVs? Well they're like a famous actor that really can't sing who is now trying to make it big as a rock star. They're still not even at the point of admitting they're lousy, but they're gonna be up on stage with the world watching them make all these sorts of mistakes, in public, again and again.
Don't know who will be more foolish - those up on stage, or those paying good money for their crap products and putting up with the mediocre experiences it will give them.

They'll come right eventually, but only if Tesla doesn't cannibalise their sales first.

To me Tesla is selling full Colour HD flat screen TVs, with broadcast TV programs that are also in HD, and simple remotes, and planning for Quad HD TV functionality and matching Quad HD TV programming soon via internet streaming and over the air updates. So you can watch what you want, when you want to.

While the ICE makers are attempting to make old school "plasma" TVs with 150 button remotes, flat tubes like they were in the 00's and they and the analysts reviewing their efforts are all pretending they are advanced "flat screen TV's" that are just as good as Teslas [and are all Tesla killers]. But their TVs don't support streaming content like Netflix so you're stuck with whatever programs the broadcasters decide to show. And you need a small "range extender" power plant just to run the TV set as their efficiency is crap.

Yeah, that strategy will work out real well. in 2018 or beyond.

jjgunn | 18. syyskuu 2018

I like the style of Lucid cars. Put down $2,500 & you'll get one in about 2020.

Two things.....

1) Price point. Lucid's 1,000 horsepower @ $200k - the only thing that MIGHT be challenging is the Roadster 2020 - Gotta get the price down for the masses.

2) The charging network? Or they sticking with J1772 L2 charging??

Somebody is going to pay Tesla lease money to use SuCh'ers & Tesla will supply an adapter for a fee. You can see it happening in the future.

I like the competition though. It's good for everyone.

gballant4570 | 18. syyskuu 2018

+100 greg

good name.... guess what the g in gballant is for....

Trying to put that plasma screen into a tube tv box.....

TranzNDance | 18. syyskuu 2018

I have a 10 year old plasma TV that has aged very well compared to any other tech device. It supports streaming through Apple TV. It is a power guzzler though.

A plasma TV analogy is being too generous to ice makers.

gballant4570 | 18. syyskuu 2018

you're probably right, Tranz, but its a handy one

Lbrooks51115 | 18. syyskuu 2018

KP- it's much harder nut to crack if you are part of the c suite of an auto company that has to answer to share holders who's share price is driven by multi billion dollar ICE business. It's much easier if your. Tesla to be all in because the EV business is your business. I think its very hard to tell investors that instead of selling SUVs that sell for 35-45 K you are going to sell EV cars for 50 k or SUV s north of 60 k..you'd get run out of the board room. I think the strategy of waiting for lithium battery prices to come down and infrastructure to mature is the most prudent approach. The competition is com8ng because they have the liquidity to compete.

sbeggs | 18. syyskuu 2018

Audi E-Tron 95 kWh battery, distances in Europe are short...and the European fast charging network is in early stage, it will compete there over a period of years.
But in the U.S., no supercharging network gimps the car, and it's not available until 2Q 2019.

Lbrooks51115 | 18. syyskuu 2018

Agree on super charger network which is why I sold my Bolt. If Chevy or-for that matter ChargePoint had a viable supercharge Network I'd still have my Bolt. The Bolt Met my needs and my price point and was a blast to drive.

rpad.tv | 18. syyskuu 2018

It depends what you mean by "competition." Of course none of the incumbents are going to ship as many EVs as Tesla. They don't want to. Most buyers want ICE, for various reasons. Traditional carmakers earn more money servicing ICE cars. More of them will have token EVs as time goes on and some will be a little more aggressive in order to hedge their bets, but ICE will be their priority for at least the next decade, probably two.

bhpaddock | 18. syyskuu 2018

Regarding the Audi, don’t they support faster supercharging than Tesla? And apparently have partnered with a network that seems like a pretty solid start in time for their launch?

The Audi seems to be cheaper than the base model X with better style and interior, and better range. Right? It’s not quite as fast (but 5.5 0-60 seems fine for that car). But overall it sounds like a solid entry to the market.

carlk | 18. syyskuu 2018

Even one of the biggest Tesla bear UBS said in a note "Audi e-tron launch - another lap Tesla wins". I already noticed how inefficient I-Pace is compares to Tesla. Audi is the same. Pretty clear now how big lead Tesla's EV technology is.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ubs-says-audi-apos-electric-120300001.html

If you think 30~50 mile range and one second acceleration is no big deal just look at how close Japanese had been to the Germans for thirty years but still have to play second fiddler in the performance car market. You will always be the second choice if you are not quite as good.

greg | 19. syyskuu 2018

@bhpaddock
Of course Audi has a faster "supercharging rate" than Tesla does, after all, current SC technology is around 6 years old. But its only *just* faster than SC, and likely the fine print will state that the 150 kW is only achievable with a tail wind, on alternate Thursdays, on even numbered weeks in odd numbered months ending in y.
Thats of course if they even admit to or disclose that fact.

Audi "SC" v Tesla SC is basically comparing last years Samsung with one from 6 years ago - no comparison, to be had.

But do you think Model 3 can't actually charge a lot faster than the SC's "2.0s" can deliver when hooked up to a SC 3.0 charger? And SC 3.0 chargers are coming - likely well before the Audi gets delivered.

Model X and S, can they max out a SC 3.0 charger? Who knows, maybe not.

But we all know that for the most part few Tesla EV's can truly suck down the full 120 kW capacity of the SC for the entire charge cycle now, yes they can reach that at peak at times but not the whole time.
.
And Audi will have that limitation too with their SCs - after all "ya canna change the laws of physics" here.

Claiming a 150 kW charge rate over a 120 kW one is simply having a pissing contest off a high cliff.
And its going to be nowhere near the same in real life, "on the flat".

But I know for sure that SC even of the "2.0" ilk will be far far more common than Audi "SC"s will be for quite some time to come. And when Audi catch up, well Tesla will be on SC 5.0 by then.

But my biggest objection to the Audi (and the BMW's) other that they are too little too late.

Is that they are all welded to the concept that the same sort of front grill that an ICE has to have is just as good or [worse], even desirable on an EV. You know for buyer "brand recognition" or "familiarity" , "heritage" and all those other nebulous reasons they list.

Fact is you don't need a Beluga whale sized mouth on the front of your EV to make it work. Its not an ICE. It doesn't inhale air for combustion or cooling and it doesn't fart noxious gases.

And if it really does need a front grill that sized for cooling - then you've got seriously shitty aerodynamics and likely a huge inefficient power hungry EV design you'd best keep well clear of.

To me the Model 3 front looks like a Porsche front end does, its a bit like the front end of Lightning McQueen from the movie Cars. All other EV's from the ICE makers so far pretty much look like the front [and arse] end of "Chick Hicks" from the same movie [who incidentally has a major sponsor in Hostile Takeover Bank]. The Model S and the X hint of a "toothy" grin front end remind me a lot of Mater also from the same movie. Cute, but also annoying at times.

greg | 19. syyskuu 2018

@Tranz,

I had a Black and White [more "grey scale" actually]12 inch CRT [tube] VGA Monitor from 1990 that aged pretty well technologywise too. In fact if I still had it, it would plug into my HP Desktop PC made last year, some 28 years after the monitor was! The picture will be Ok, but it won't be anywhere near "HD" resolution the Desktop does and the image would be too small for me to read.

Would I buy one now? Of course not. Those old tube CRTs are hard to recycle toxic waste dumps for a starter. And I'd be stuck with VGA performance forever.

The HP came with a 27 inch IPS 1080p flat screen Monitor there's no comparison on the picture when using DVI inputs.

Same with a Tesla v other EVs - no comparison, better tech all round, in a better package. Even if its a S or X.

If it was a decade or 2 ago and those other EV's were the only game in town? Sure they'd be cutting edge and I'd have one - if I could afford one that is.

But now, in 2018? Why bother unboxing it even if they give them away. Take 'em straight to the recycle centre. And get something else.

carlk | 19. syyskuu 2018

@greg You are right it's not just EV technology but technology overall. All those majors do not seem to understand it's not just an EV but the future car too. Some of those small start up seem to get it although they just don't have means to do anything. Mater of fact I don't think Detroit or Germany has means to match the Silicon Valley company either.

Lbrooks51115 | 19. syyskuu 2018

EV is less than 1% of all care sales and I would argue that until there is viable infrastructure for charging as well as convenience combined with price parity to an ice the available market is 1%. Sure Tesla is kicking the crap out of Audi but it's still an early adopter very small market.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 20. syyskuu 2018

Lbrooks51115: Have you ever heard of the 'CARROT & STICK' strategy? I have said for years that Tesla's attack on ICE has been a form of that.

You place a carrot just out of reach of a stubborn mule. That way, you can lead it toward a goal. As long as the mule moves in the direction you prefer, they will have the promise of being rewarded, with the carrot, upon doing do. But if the mule slows, stops, or becomes distracted by other goals, you get its attention by firmly swatting its backside with the stick, and it determines it is better to move on toward the carrot reward, because the pain of the stick goes away.

The mule is the traditional automobile industry, which would be content to keep grazing in the wide field of gas guzzling, smoke churning, fire breathing ICE vehicles that they can sell easily and profitably without much effort beyond spending thousands per vehicle which may add up to billions overall to advertise their existence. But, the way things are now, thanks to their lobbying efforts over the past forty years to delay, defer, or destroy regulatory efforts to drastically or immediately improve emissions or fuel economy, they don't have to undergo the expense to radically change their vehicles in a major way and their ICE based cars and trucks remain fundamentally the same as they've been for the last 100 years and they fully expected to maintain that status quo on a quarter-by-quarter basis for the next 50-to-100 years without issue. They used the same delaying and deferment tactics for the past six years that they had since 1976... "Nobody asked for smaller, cleaner, more fuel efficient, and reliable cars!", "We won't build them! You can't make us!", "Americans won't buy those things, they believe that 'Bigger is Better!' (because we told them so through our advertising for the 6000 SUX and COMBUSTRA 9000).", "Everybody knows that bigger cars are safer! Who cares if they use a little more gas, if it means citizens and their families are safe on the road?", "After all, GAS IS CHEAP! Nothing else is as powerful or cost effective. The alternative technologies are just not ready for prime time yet! They all cost too much, no one would buy them, our profits would go down, and we'd have to lay off our work force, and in an election year your opponents would surely point out it was all your fault!", "Oh, wait... Diesel costs about the same, and does offer greater fuel economy, and according to our research, can be cleaner burning than gas on a mile-by-mile basis, while still being 'fun to drive'. We call it 'Clean Diesel' technology, and it works just fine! Here, you'll see if you put it through the standard emissions tests that WE designed and approved..." Never mind that GM went from 53% of the U.S. market in 1976 to 35% in 1985, and 17% in 2016, going bankrupt along the way... While Honda and Toyota passenger vehicles became the perrennial favorites in annual U.S. sales. Or that Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, GM, and others were all found to have lied and cheated on emissions for those 'clean diesel' vehicles. Or that Tesla came along and proved pretty much every argument against electric vehicles completely wrong.

Then some rich, stuck up, idiot, smart alec named Elon Musk showed up. No problem. He could be mostly ignored. He talked funny and stuttered. He made his money from the internet, and 'everyone knows' those aren't 'real businesses' at all, but scams, every one of them. He didn't even know how to dress and didn't bother to shave or get a decent haircut. He was disrespectful of his elders. He spent millions on a fool's errand and is practically broke. His 'companies' if you want to call them that rely upon government funding so this is obviously just a money grab and he'll probably go out of business any day now but we all know better than to 'save' him from himself by buying him out which is probably what he hopes for as he rides the hype train as a supposed 'serial entrepreneur' who jumps from one business to the next with no plans for profitability in any of them... What? He actually released a car, and it's awesome? No big deal, that's just 'A toy... for the RICH!' It took him five years to sell the first one, and three years to sell around 2,600 units worldwide. [FLOG] that guy. Hunh? He brought out another car, new from the ground up? It took him nine years to finish his second car, and it's just another boutique car that costs way too much. Another 'TOY... for the RICH!" Doesn't that idiot know luxury car sales are DOWN since the 2008 market collapse? And he's talking about selling 15,000-to-20,000 of them worldwide in 2013? Ha! Rots-o-ruck, buddy! It took them six months to deliver 2,600 units in 2012. Hunh? Whaddayamean that thing is the best selling large, high end flagship car in the U.S.? I thought it was Midsize, like an AUDI A6, or BMW 5-Series, it couldn't possibly outsell those... Oh, the EPA classifies it as 'Large' because of its interior volume? They just squeaked over the line from midsize? That ain't fair! OK, get the dealers on the line, I want to know who it is that's moving so many of those things and how... What?!? They sell... DIRECT? So they aren't using 'independent franchised dealerships' at all? How is that possible? I thought there were laws against that? Get NADA on the line! How did those many people even find out about this company? WHAT?!? They don't advertise either? Word of mouth? MOTOR TREND CAR of the YEAR? AUTOMOBILE CAR of the YEAR? 'BEST CAR WE HAVE EVER TESTED' from Consumer Reports? [FLOCK]!!! This is a friggin' nightmare! Tell me, are you SURE they will go out of business 'any day now'? Their stock is over $80 per share, they paid back their government loan nine years early with interest and penalties, the NHTSA gave their car a perfect crash test rating, and that thing is STILL the best selling high end car at over $90,000 average sale price? WTF is going on here? AND they intend to release an SUV before the end of 2013? Wait, they changed their mind and delayed it because the sedan is selling so well? How well? Thet built 25,000 and Delivered 22,000 in 2013? but that's more than the 20,000 estimate they gave in 2012! [FLOCK]! How is this happenning? That Musk guy says they'll need a... 'GIGAFACTORY' to release their 'mass market car' in 2017? The SUV slipped to Spring 2014, but will no longer be offered in a 'single motor, rear wheel drive format'? Small blessings. The SUV is now 'late Fall 2014'? Ha! They are falling to pieces! I KNEW THIS WOULD HAPPEN! Yay! Hah! They delayed their SUV AGAIN! But, they will have a 'dual motor, all wheel drive' version of their Sedan this Fall. No big deal, everyone has AWD options, and this... 'Autopilot'? [BOLSHEVIK]. Everyone offers traffic aware cruise control now. That's nothing special at all. What? A car that size doing 0-to-60 MPH in 3.2 seconds without burning a single drop of gas? Damn, that is impressive. Maybe we should consider building a car like that? NO!!! WE WON'T DO IT! THERE'S NO REPLACEMENT FOR DISPLACEMENT!!! Well, they built 35,000 and delivered 31,000 units of that Sedan in 2014, but have delayed their SUV to Spring 2015 now, plus they started some sort of Referral Program for Owners. Good. At least it seems this FAD is over with... Mercedes-Benz recaptured the #1 spot among large luxury Sedans in 2014, though Tesla was still #2 ahead of BMW 7-Series. Obviously, Tesla is burning cash fast and is seeing less demand. No need to panic... OK, their SUV is too hard to build, they only approached 270 units delivered for the year (after delaying its release AGAIN to Fall 2015), but sold around 50,000 of their Sedans worldwide and got #1 in U.S. sales again in 2015. So, the FAD isn't over after all. The Gigafactory has broken ground but is far from being complete, just sand piles in the high desert. Tesla will unveil their 'mass market car' in March 2016. Hah. As if the public will consider a $35,000 car as being 'for the masses'... OH MY GOD, THAT THING IS BEAUTIFUL! I can't believe there hadn't been any leaks! Heck, everyone that published renderings showed a dumpy little torture chamber econobox that looked worse than a Hyundai Excel, like maybe a 3/8 scale Honda Odyssey at best -- nothing at all like what they unveiled! The 'Reservation' amount is only $1,000 and they got over 115,000 Reservations placed before the first night was over! The most they had for the Big Sedan was ~18,000 Reservations, and the SUV had ~30,000 Reservations, but this... 'Model 3' is something else entirely. $#!+. This Musk guy is suing regulators and elected officials for retroactively banning their direct sales model, like we asked them to... He says that Tesla is 'accelerating' their plans because of the overwhelming number of Model 3 Reservations they received, over 450,000 already... So they have tripled the expected automotive output of the completed Gigafactory and will reach the 35 GWh production level in 2018 instead of 2020. Damn. Everyone said that no one would get a Model 3 until 2019... But Tesla Employees and Insiders took Delivery before the end of July 2017, and 'real people' began taking Delivery before the end of December 2017. ~*sigh*~ Can these guys be stopped? No union to go on strike. No franchises to slow things down. 'America First' so, politicians won't attack them directly in public, on camera. [FLOCK]. Now the Model 3 is not only in the top twenty in overall sales, but in the top five for passenger cars sold in the U.S. during August 2018. Maybe that number will drop for September? We can only hope. Because if their sales cross 18,000 per month in the U.S. for he rest of this year, ICE is doomed, and Tesla will not only survive, but thrive, no matter how much FUD is cast their way. WAH! MOMMY!!!

"...But a price point of 50k for a non SUV isn't going drive wide EV adoption."

Oh? Read 'em and weep...

PASSENGER CAR U.S. SALES AUGUST 2018
$23,645 ___ 30,141 ___ Toyota Camry
$18,940 ___ 27,277 ___ Honda Civic
$23,570 ___ 26,725 ___ Honda Accord
$18,600 ___ 26,155 ___ Toyota Corolla
$49,000 ___ 17,800 ___ Tesla Model 3 First Production
$16,950 ___ 15,475 ___ Hyundai Elantra
$23,260 ___ 14,925 ___ Nissan Altima
$16,990 ___ 13,314 ___ Nissan Sentra
$22,215 ___ 11,286 ___ Ford Fusion
$22,600 ___ 11,074 ___ Kia Optima
$18,495 ___ 10,677 ___ Subaru Impreza
$18,645 ___ 10,597 ___ Volkswagen Jetta
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/09/august-2018-ytd-u-s-passenger-car-s...

When it comes to NEW car sales, price is of no consequence. People will buy whatever they want or can convince themselves they can afford. People are more cognizant of price when they buy USED cars, even at similar cost to NEW. Over 35,000,000 USED vehicles are sold in the U.S. each ear, and only about 17,000,000 NEW.

September, October, November, December... WHEN, not 'if', the Model 3 finishes 2018 with consecutive appearances in the top 10 NEW passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. you will be proven wrong.

By the way...? The carrot is the promise of higher sales and greater market share by selling pure electric vehicles. If your ICE products are well reviewed and still see tiny sales, maybe a fully electric line of cars would do better?

The stick is Tesla, kicking long established ICE manufacturers in the butt with steadily improving sales that companies like Mazda, Subaru, and Volvo can no longer hope to see as they have been largely ignored in favor of other brands for decades. They have even been surpassed by Hyundai and Kia in sales, relative 'newcomers' at only about 30 years selling in the U.S. They don't really have anything to lose by going full electric if they choose.

Whether or not larger traditional automobile manufacturers move to fully electric is a matter of pride, prejudice, and perspective.

6000 SUX Commercial -- 'It's Big'
[ YouTube -- fl8mQhxhE_Q ]

COMBUSTRA 9000 PSA -- 'It's Loud'
[ YouTube -- mAmf48I6ZPs ]

gballant4570 | 20. syyskuu 2018

Model S is currently the best selling used car in the US, I read somewhere recently. I wish I had the link to post, but do not. However, these stats are usually split upon segment definition lines - if light trucks or suvs were included, the S would most likely no longer be that high on the list.

It does show however significant penetration into the used car market, and is also a gauge of interest in said market. There must be a healthy demand for used EV's, especially if they have a T on them.

Use car market penetration is key to The Mission. Lbrooks has been hanging out with Bob Lutz.

gballant4570 | 20. syyskuu 2018

Sorry - the stat above is expressed incorrectly. Model S id the FASTEST selling used car in the US. Not the biggest number of used cars sold, but the FASTEST selling.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 20. syyskuu 2018

Lbrooks51115 stated, "I would argue that until there is viable infrastructure for charging as well as convenience combined with price parity to an ice the available market is 1%."

The Model S and Model X have been 'on par' in pricing with their direct competitors (and less expensive than AMG, ALPINA/M, & Turbo S variants) since their release. If anything, those competitors' pricing has risen quicker than Tesla's in order to distance themselves for the sake of 'exclusivity' and stuff.

The Tesla Model 3 is 'on par' on pricing with its direct competitors, Acura TLX, Alfa Romeo Giulia, AUDI A4, BMW 3-Series, Genesis G80/G90, Infiniti Q50, Jaguar XE, Kia Stinger, Lexus ES/IS, Maserati Ghibli, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Porsche Cayman.

The Model 3 has NOT needed to be priced 'on par' with the best selling passenger cars in the U.S. to join them in the top twenty overall, or top five passenger cars in the nation.

PASSENGER CAR U.S. SALES AUGUST 2018
$23,645 ___ 30,141 ___ Toyota Camry
$18,940 ___ 27,277 ___ Honda Civic
$23,570 ___ 26,725 ___ Honda Accord
$18,600 ___ 26,155 ___ Toyota Corolla
$49,000 ___ 17,800 ___ Tesla Model 3 First Production
$16,950 ___ 15,475 ___ Hyundai Elantra
$23,260 ___ 14,925 ___ Nissan Altima
$16,990 ___ 13,314 ___ Nissan Sentra
$22,215 ___ 11,286 ___ Ford Fusion
$22,600 ___ 11,074 ___ Kia Optima
$18,495 ___ 10,677 ___ Subaru Impreza
$18,645 ___ 10,597 ___ Volkswagen Jetta

By the time Tesla is able to offer a long range fully electric car en masse at $16,950 or less (like the Hyundai Elantra), none of the major traditional automobile manufacturers will offer anything at all for less than $20,000. Just as they abandoned sub-$5,000 cars, and sub-$10,000 vehicles, most have already stopped offering sub-$15,000 cars, and only one of those, the Nissan VERSA, manages in excess of 100,000 units sold per year on a consistent basis. It has a base MSRP of $12,110 and is also currently being outsold by Tesla Model 3.

Your position on this issue is entirely without merit and completely WRONG.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 20. syyskuu 2018

Lbrooks51115: By the way, I'm sure that there were once livery stable owners that noted that ICE vehicles represented less than 1% of horse sales, and advocated against the expenditure to improve the infrastructure of public roads as a result, too. Because horses and wagons never got stuck in the mud, honest... I wonder how many of those livery stables became parking structures with the passage of time...

M3BlueGeorgia | 20. syyskuu 2018

@ReD eXiLe ms us

Back in the 60s and 70s in London "mews" conversions were the hot fashion for housing in upscale inner neighborhoods.
I don't know where the name came from, but these were the stables built behind Victorian and Georgian houses. All now converted to what we would call townhouses.

dyefrog | 20. syyskuu 2018

I think the Bolt is an okay car for what it is but certainly not a great car compared to other GM offerings at the same price point or any other ICEV for that matter.
The point that gets missed when comparing it with the Model 3 or better yet, the model 3 to other cars is when the SR comes out and it will, the price argument flies out the window. The knee jerk reaction of course by the "others" is that it's vapor ware so a non sequitur, red herring, what have you. Not so fast Bucko. For comparisons sake, if you test drove any of the available LR's on the road today, it's basically a $40k car with a bigger gas tank. That $9k is pretty much wasted in regards to a test drive. So for the purposes of comparing the model 3, if you want to fast forward 6 months, think of it as $32,500 with FTC.

SamO | 20. syyskuu 2018

Short range is going to be an amazing car. it will have at least 10 miles more than my original MOdel S60 which you could drive coast to coast in early 2014 with Supercharger only.

Now, almost every route is enabled and the short-range Model 3 will be absolutely devastating to Toyota, Nissan and Honda.

Because right now, BMW/Mercedes and Audi are hemorrhaging customers in the high end.

#DriveFree

ravisundaramam | 20. syyskuu 2018

@billtphotoman My brother, a great conspiracy theorist, says Nissan Leaf is deliberately engineered to sour the market for EV. Lure them in and disappoint them so hard, they will never go electric for 100 years. That was the mission of Leaf. Says he.

I say why blame malice when plain incompetence would explain it. They cut costs, by leaving out thermal management of the battery, they pulled the EPA Rated, YMMV trick, disappointed the users. Standard play book of any ICE maker. Tesla got 335 miles by EPA testing, advertises 310 miles, does it based on what the customer wants, not what I can make for some arbitrary price point.

georgehawley.fl.us | 20. syyskuu 2018

Tesla is doomed. It must be true.
Bob Lutz said so.
Again.
If Tesla keeps growing revenues at 50% per year, year over year,
by the end 2021 they will have posted $25 billion in sales, approaching Subaru..

joelada | 23. syyskuu 2018

I agree that the lack of a super charger network has reduced the consumer viability of the Chevy Bolt.

Each month, we travel 350 miles from Chicago to visit family in northern Michigan. However, there are NO high-speed superchargers for the Bolt between Chicago and our destination. We would have purchase a Bolt 18 months ago as our first EV. But unfortunately, high-speed recharging infrastructure for intercity EV road travel was not a part of GM's business plan.

By contrast, Tesla installed a dozen supercharger stations strategically located in mid-size and even small cities across Michigan as well as Detroit. Tesla plans to double this number next year.

As a result, we are scheduled to take delivery of a Tesla Model 3 this weekend. We are spending WAY more on a car than we ever dreamed we would. But, we share in Tesla's mission: Ending fossil fuel emissions ASAP. We also have come to value and admire Tesla's revolutionary rethinking of personal vehicle transportation, with its creation and use of cutting-edge new technologies to achieve it.

ravisundaramam | 23. syyskuu 2018

@joelada: "By contrast, Tesla installed a dozen supercharger stations strategically located in mid-size and even small cities across Michigan as well as Detroit. Tesla plans to double this number next year."

The locations are strategically chosen, the size of the town does not matter. These superchargers are meant for long distance travelers, they are typically at the mid point of two large population centers. Size of Hermitage PA or Strangville OH were chosen not because of their population, but because of their strategic location connecting, Pittsburgh PA, Cleveland OH, Erie PA, Buffalo NY. Important cross roads towns like Maumee OH or Breezewood PA make it to the list. But so do tiny outposts along I-80, I-90, I-76 corridors.

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