From Discover on Google https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/19/elon-musk-tesla-will-have-all-its-se...
World rocket scientists said it is impossible to land an orbital class booster on launch site (not pad) but he did.
So, I do not care if world self driving experts say anything, I will bet $3000 on Elon, and I did.
I think it'll happen, but I don't know the Elon to Actual time conversion factor.
Has he ever exhibited signs of lack of confidence?
Yep, got my mom a 3 and FSD as she ages, AP a key reason. End of 2019 was about my guess for basic FSD, so lets hope it stays on course and doesn't go too far into Elon time. A year or two sounds like forever, but will be here very soon.
This was him pulling on another demand lever. I have been an owner for 5 years, but I still take much of what ELon says with a huge grain of salt. Last year they were supposed to have sent a FSD car across country, but that never happened and nor have they mentioned it since.
I am very pro-Tesla but this isn't gonna happen.
Has Tesla mfg in California stopped producing model 3 performance cars due to profitability concerns
@gmkellogg - For the win :)
@hanmer be prepared to be nailed
Elon has missed every firmware-related deadline he's ever mentioned publicly, so I wouldn't get too excited about this.
hammer @OR-US | February 19, 2019
I am very pro-Tesla but this isn't gonna happen.
Not certain who will last longer on the planet...me or you. But on some level this is happening & I will experience it before I leave this planet.
@jjgunn, it will happen, but many doubt that it can in the existing cars with their current hardware.
That said, I'll very happily be proven wrong :)
I would love to have level 4 autnomous driving but i just can't imagine it any time soon. The car cannot recognize signal lights, crashes into parking pillars, cannot deal with fast moving cars when changing lanes, among many other things. Seems like a huge leap to "FSD."
@jjgunn "on some level this is happening"
Not with current hardware, not by the end of the year as stated by Mr. Musk. The pace of advancement of Tesla Autopilot features has been extremely slow.
I love it when uniformed people on the internet state as fact that the knowledgeable experts are wrong.
Musk may be optimistic, but he had proven a lot of people wrong who said it can't be done. I always feel better as he announces getting closer. Adding six months is probably a good bet for wide release, but is sounds like it is coming soon.
I bought FSD expecting that it would be a few years before I saw benefit from it. This is encouraging, even if they are late delivering on it.
The troll is back
After having lived with EAP since September, the timeline on when I think FSD will be viable extended by at least 3 years. There are just so many things I do subconsciously that I didn't realize until I noticed EAP doesn't even attempt to do:
1) evading objects in the road which could lead to a flat tire or worse
2) Looking at the deer that are abundant in our area and anticipating when they will try and cross my path
3) Observing a slow moving vehicle about to merge and reacting accordingly
I suspect 1) would require much higher resolution cameras since even a fist size rock could cause damage when run over at highway speeds.
As long as FSD is available before I reach my 70s I will be happy. For now I am enjoying driving my model 3 with EAP occasionally taking the drudgery out of it.
Even more common situations such as poor or no lane markings, construction, that guy with the slow/stop sign, that bouncing ball that may indicate a child nearby, among many others. Driving is complicated. We do many actions subconsciously. If the manual is full of warnings, it is not FSD either.
What do you expect him to say with all that FSD deposit money in the bank. As stated not going to happen any time soon. It will be a new car anyway if you expect real level 5.
Everyone should consider that they aren't using the FSD product and thus can't judge how well the development is progressing. Until you have the HW3 computer and FSD software you will have no useful idea of what Tesla is capable of with the FSD setup that is currently in dev and much less the final product.
Also, why would EAP handle situations necessary for FSD?
I think that Tesla will pull it off by the end of the year at least internally. Hard to say when any non-Tesla people will get to play with it.
I bet he means that it will work in a carefully contrived setting under ideal conditions, with no surprises.
Will it work for you in the real world? Probably not with any assurance of safety...
FSD capable, but not FSD itself which is still a long ways away.
It cannot be"FSD" unless the ubiquitous warnings are removed from the manual and Tesla assumes liability. They would have to be an insurance company as well.
If you read the article he clearly says fsd capabilities by the end of the year, but still needing a drivers input and help. Another year or so from then until the imagined true fsd.
He also was very confident in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 .. are coming soon. Should he offer a refund to folks who paid for FSD since 2016 and then traded-in or sold the car?
@disapr - Exactly! All of us talking from our experience with EAP have zero experience with FSD hardware/software.
I heard once that no buggy will ever run without horses.. horseless? bah, that's poppycock.
how did that turn out?
So we will have Full Self Driving that can't quite drive by itself, because it needs human assistance. That's pretty much what he said, right? Sounds a lot like autopilot. Maybe it'll start making turns on local roads and stopping for traffic signals?
@finman. Nobody is saying FSD cars are never going to be a reality. We're highly skeptical its going to happen with these cars by the end of the year.
To further clarify my position, I watched live the announcement of Autopilot by Elon and he outlined capabilities the original AP was supposed to have and over 4 years later and a second generation we still dont have those capabilities. So yea, I'm skeptical there's going to be anything close to FSD by the end of the year.
I interpreted what he said to mean by the end of the year, the car will drive everywhere how it does now on freeways. You can basically get on a freeway and turn on AP and it can drive until you exit the freeway most of the time. With FSD, that is what the car will do everywhere by the end of this year. But just like currently on the freeway, there are times the car needs help so you take over. He is not claiming by the end of the year you go to sleep in the back and awake at your destination.
For what it's worth, I think Elon believes he can deliver some form of FSD by the end of the year, even if most of us don't believe it. In other words, I don't think he's trying to mislead those of us who paid for FSD -- he's just really bad at estimating software deliverables. I think he does better with production estimates, because he has a better understandinf of the production constraints.
He recruited ~100 employees and owners with the lure of free EAP and FSD to road test FSD a significant number of hours per week, so I imagine they’re making progress.
I am still waiting for the update that Elon said is definitely coming in fall 2018 - car will come to you from the parking lot and follow you like a dog on the street. It's a 50/50 if the car will go inside my garage when using summon. Autopilot gets confused with cross-intersection paint lines on a straight road and want to go to a different lane.
I like Tesla, I am an owner and shareholder. Based on what I am seeing in the current feature set my best guess is 5 years for FSD (I am not talking about where something is released and a human still needs to nudge the steering wheel. I am talking about where car can drive from A to B without any human intervention).
Should listen and understand the interview before postinghttps://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast
@Bighorn It would be an illegal criminal act, you liar.
Actually, the car DID make the cross country trip with FSD. But it was a completely invisible car, a feature that Elon never spoke of, but I found out through my psychic, madam yoo-hoo.
I have no problem with invisible and imperceptible cars on the road, like neutrino particles. We would not have any congestion problems, lol
Ill be happy to be proven wrong on the timeline, but man, as stated above, we do a lot of calculations in our everyday driving that I can't imagine FSD being ready to do in the near term.
Simple stuff like looking at the drivers side-view mirror of the car in the lane in front of you to see if the driver is checking the lane for a possible lane change. We see that and adjust our speed ahead of any physical movement by the driver to get out of their way. That's a very complex thing for FSD to do. Cameras gotta look at that little mirror and determine if the human is just glancing or looking with intent to move.
We take preventative action as we come to a fork in a highway knowing some drivers may realize at the last minute they are in the wrong lane and may change lanes at the last second (stupidly). We adjust our cars position in case they go Bat S*** Crazy and make the lane change.
It's not enough to just react to a situation. Taking preventative action (defensive driving) is huge. I think AI gets us there, but is Tesla FSD capable of doing all of this in this generation of cars and sensors?
Not hating, I own one and am in the IT business. I find the whole concept very, very interesting. I also think we need people like Musk to shake things up and push society forward Like Tesla and Edison and Bell etc. etc.
Pepperidge +1 "World rocket scientists said it is impossible to land an orbital class booster on launch site (not pad) but he did.
So, I do not care if world self driving experts say anything, I will bet $3000 on Elon, and I did."
I made the same bet.
Go Elon! Go Tesla!
I recognize that you are a troll, but for anyone who gives you the benefit of the doubt:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-self-driving-1...
The recruitment was extended to regular owners via Twitter.
@Big, that article was from September 2018. Interesting there's not one comment on it.
Note that Musk is quoted saying:
"However," he added, "people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case."
In addition, the speed at which the technology makes it into the hands of customers depends on what regulators will allow, Musk added.
However within two years, the technology ought to be there for cars to operate without any help from a driver at all.
"My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year," he said. "That is when I think it would be safe enough for that."
So really he is saying by the end of 2020, right?
Didn’t know you wanted comments:https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/aa3bu...