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Delivery Estimate?

Delivery Estimate?

Ok, so given that we have a confirmed reservation count over 230k ( https://twitter dot com/elonmusk/status/716089404985487361 ) and that the first reservations to be delivered are supposed to be starting late 2017, When do you think a new reservation would be delivered. Just random shot in the dark type guesstimate.

WattsThatGrin | 02. huhtikuu 2016

NOT soon.
Sorry... couldn't resist.

dtesla | 02. huhtikuu 2016

It takes time to get an assembly line to run at design capacity. Kinks need to be worked out. People need to be trained. It took Tesla 6 months to deliver a little over 3000 Model S cars. That was an amazingly quick ramp up compared to other automakers. Also Tesla will probably need to build several assembly lines to meet it's goal of 500K per year.

My guess based on the above... I'll say 100K cars delivered in the first year after the delivery of the first car.

TesMD | 02. huhtikuu 2016

Tesla has its own "time" table. Just because it was announced that M3 will go in production in late 2017, that does not mean that it will happen as planned. This is completely brand new car that still needs to be designed/finalized fully and tested and assemble a production line to build it. Then depending on where you are, it could take up to year or greater for the car to reach production for your area. So, in short, no one really knows including Elon and any guess would not even bejustifiable.

dtesla | 03. huhtikuu 2016

As justifiable as a football pool... Both are fun to speculate on.

Red Sage ca us | 04. huhtikuu 2016

Things cannot go as they have for Model X. People must be able to test drive locally ahead of final purchase. So, the earliest batch of cars might still have Development VINs prior to Production. Those would be used for shows, events, demos, loaners... Hopefully all the Production kinks can be worked out by just preparing a few hundred of those cars. Then, they could hit the ground running at a rate equivalent to Model S and Model X combined, around 2,000 units per week. That would be a good starting point to build toward a minimum of 4,000 units per week within about six months. All this depends upon the Gigafactory being able to output battery packs of sufficient capacity in the proper quantities well ahead of Production of the cars.

Supraman | 04. huhtikuu 2016

Red Sage - what's a "development VIN"?

PhillyGal | 04. huhtikuu 2016

I think Tesla will deliver on time. It may mean that the literal first one gets delivered on 12/31/2016 at 11pm California time, but still I think they'll do it. A lot depends on this car being on time, since the whole world is watching now.

dsvick | 04. huhtikuu 2016

@Red Sage
A test drive would be great, I waited in line and placed my reservation sight unseen but an actual test drive prior to actually having to configure and place an order would be nice.

@PhillyGal
12/31/2016? That'd be awesome, but I bet you meant 2017? I'm hoping for early 4th quarter for the initial deliveries but we'll have to wait and see.

PhillyGal | 04. huhtikuu 2016

@dsvick - Yep, 2017. Freudian slip if I've ever seen one.

But also, I do wish for and think early Q4 deliveries are possible, even if just those few Tesla/Space X employees that reserved early.

AutoCue | 04. huhtikuu 2016

This is a nice and sleek and wonderful car. But in essence it obviously is quite simple to build.
Expect first deliveries end of Q2 2017.

Hi_Tech | 04. huhtikuu 2016

I really hope they can shorten the timeframes to Q2 or Q3 2017, but must ensure highest quality.

Haggy | 04. huhtikuu 2016

Tesla isn't likely to throw in new sorts of complex technology that will take a long time to figure out. While it's true that the Model S doesn't have a cowbell, it will be easier to make one for the Model 3 than it would be to invent something along the lines of cowbell wing doors.

Red Sage ca us | 06. huhtikuu 2016

Supraman: Check out this site...

http://teslatap.com/vin-decoder/

The 12th position in a VIN, 'Build Phase Code', is what I was speaking of...

A = Alpha Prototype
B = Beta Prototype
E = Evaluation Prototype, Roadster
F = Founder Series Vehicle
M = Mule, Roadster, early prototype
P = Production Vehicle
R = Release Candidate Vehicle
S = Signature Series Vehicle
V = Validation Prototype, Roadster

So, Alpha, Beta, Evaluation, Validation, and Release Candidate vehicles are the sorts of cars that don't apply toward the IRS total. I consider them all 'Development' vehicles. I hope this helps!

smiffy99 | 06. huhtikuu 2016

1st quarter 2019.

bj | 07. huhtikuu 2016

I suggest you read my thread https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/my-dodgy-maths-estimate-deli... and feel free to tear my assumptions apart.

Supraman | 07. huhtikuu 2016

Thanks Red Sage ca us. Very interesting.

Red Sage ca us | 07. huhtikuu 2016

Supraman: No problem. I'm here to help.

;-)