How far from production are we?

How far from production are we?

If Tesla wanted to produce a Model 3 right now for the first customer, could they? If not, anybody know what the gaps are to cover?

bmalloy0 | 03. marraskuu 2016

We are closer to production today than we were yesterday.

That's all anyone outside of Tesla knows.

jschnyderite | 03. marraskuu 2016

Q3 2017.

KP in NPT | 03. marraskuu 2016

The production line is just starting to be built, I believe. So getting that in place is a pretty big gap to cover.

dsvick | 03. marraskuu 2016

Could they? Sure, but, as mp said, there is no production line so it would have to be built by hand.

How long? Elon said they are still on schedule so 9 - 12 months.

Red Sage ca us | 03. marraskuu 2016

Closer than yesterday, further than we'd like.

I doubt anyone could have a proper Production car today.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'gaps' at all.

Dbeal2 | 03. marraskuu 2016

I'm going to be purposefully very vague, but one of my clients has shipped a few hundred sets of an interior component for the Model 3...I'm just guessing they are building test cars. I think I'll see an indication just before (60 days?) they start production because my sales to that client are only for the Model 3.

KP in NPT | 03. marraskuu 2016

Sets, huh? Cupholders? Coat Hooks?

(sort of an inside joke on the Model S forum. ;-) )

bgbythsea | 03. marraskuu 2016

Peter Hochholdinger has said that they are designing the Model 3 with ease of manufacturing in mind. So essentially they are probably designing and fine tuning the 3 and the line at the same time; hence the need for a few hundred of (presumably a car's worth) the various components, which will point out tweaks needed to ready the design of each for full scale production. The robots are probably going through the same flush-out-the-glitches process as the components of the car. No one on the outside knows what the "gaps" are. As dsvik said above, if (another prototype) one were to be built now, it would have to be by hand, and therefore wouldn't be a "production" car. Chances are that there will be another "reveal" of some sort before production begins. When production does begin and we hear that employees are doing the beta testing, I guess we regular customers will begin to see our cars 3 to 6 months after that.

Frank99 | 03. marraskuu 2016

Well, Electrek reported that Tesla was buying sufficient parts for 300 vehicles:
Likely to be used for standard testing - fit and finish, crash and safety testing, over-the-road testing, supplier integration mules, etc.

So the answer to the OP is probably "They'll be able to build a pre-production vehicle any day now, if they aren't already building them. If they wanted to, they could probably sell one to a buyer, but probably not to one in the US that wanted to use it on the road".

Of course, I'm a Software guy, so the answer is "Production software for the dozens to hundreds of computers and microprocessors will be complete about 2 weeks before first customer shipment, and that's when Tesla will be able to produce a Model 3".

JeffreyR | 03. marraskuu 2016

@bgbythsea wrote, "When production does begin and we hear that employees are doing the beta testing, I guess we regular customers will begin to see our cars 3 to 6 months after that."

The employees get first dibs partly to be able to work out the kinks w/ folks that have a deeply vested interest in the roll out going well and partly as a reward for all their hard work. They will be the first production cars, so technically not a beta (though I see what you mean). Another reason that the they will be first is that any cars that are particularly troublesome can be worked on while the employee is at work. Convenient.
The reason that folks taking delivery of "highly optioned" cars near the factory is the same. Any issues can be dealt with w/o delay or shipping cars around.

Employees w/ cars that are particularly good may even find them being closely inspected to see what went right.

As to when the rest of us will start receiving shipments after the employees do, that should be much sooner than 3-6 months. Elon wants to start building thousands of M≡'s as soon as possible. Tesla has requested approval to double their capacity in Fremont.

Like everything else Tesla is doing for The Great Ramp Up, it will take time and their plans are aggressive. But six months is an eternity in this context. It's also a blink of an eye. Imagine what posts will be like in 2018 and thousands of new M≡ owners are joining our ranks.

KP in NPT | 03. marraskuu 2016

The Great Ramp Up. Love it @Jeffrey. And so true about the 6 months versus 2018. That was always my thing re: if there are delays or not. Regardless, when we get our cars we'll look back and not care.

Great post. :)

sbeggs | 04. marraskuu 2016

Thanks, @JeffreyR...great info and perspective.

David N | 04. marraskuu 2016

Do we know if they have even started assembling the production line yet. If I recall correctly, news of the purchase and delivery of the robots for assembly of the Model S was kinda publicly known. It's kinda hard to hide shipments of those giant robots.
Is there any indication that robots for the model 3 line have been ordered?

KP in NPT | 04. marraskuu 2016
Badbot | 04. marraskuu 2016

Do you know that pre-production cars are normally not able to be registered or sold. they by and large get crushed in the end.

vpaiva00 | 05. marraskuu 2016

I am one of the folks that owns a volkswagen TDI vehicle, part of the billion dollar settlement. The buybacks start now and go through September 1, 2018. Given the extended buyback period, I decided to put through my reservation for the Model 3 today. Should I feel optimistic that delivery will be made for my order by 9/1/2018?

vpaiva00 | 05. marraskuu 2016

By the way, I live in NJ

JeffreyR | 05. marraskuu 2016

@vpaiva00 you are definitely late to the party. If you can "peg" the options you may just be happy. Also if your are able to take delivery in Fremont that may help. But you have 400K+ reservations in front of you and we know Elon has said that the first year is sold out.

So not looking good. Many have posted about short-term leasing services here. Install the TFES and see what you can find. Well "the Google" in general may be all you need to search for info.
Thanks folks. Glad my post was helpful.

Haggy | 05. marraskuu 2016

Given the way Tesla has described things, it would make sense for them to have parts so they can put the line together and have it work with actual parts. Also, suppliers aren't supposed to divulge what they are supplying to Tesla. One did, and they had to pay a steep fine for it, according to their contract with Tesla.

Badbot | 05. marraskuu 2016

Elon has said that the first year is sold out.
so if production started in Aug. Sep. 1 year might be late 2018.