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Reservation Advice for Potential Buyers

Reservation Advice for Potential Buyers

I am a non-Tesla owner in California and who put in a reservation in October 2017. I hear that there are about 500K reservations worldwide, about half being from US. My reservation predictor still says late 2018 for all three config (long range, short range, dual motor). I heard that if you put a reservation in now, it'll still be late 2018. I know a couple of people who are on the fence of putting in a reservation but it seems like with all the current delays and the queue size for reservations, there is no sense in putting in one since the current estimate is not going to be accurate and there will be more delays and Fed tax credit will be almost gone by then (I for one do not think I'll get mine till Spring 2019). I am about to advise them they should just wait till next year to see what pans out and the current queue to disappear and keep the $1000 in their bank accounts. Does anyone agree with this logic?

mjamesaustin | 17. tammikuu 2018

The earlier they put in a reservation, the sooner they will get the car. If they have the $1000 to spare now and they definitely want the car, they should put in a reservation now.

bayareakid2008 | 17. tammikuu 2018

Yes, placing a reservation right now would be a bad idea; they'll be lucky to get the car before 2020. If I were you, I'd cancel my October 2017 reservation as well...

KP in NPT | 17. tammikuu 2018

bayareakid don't be a troll. Seriously. What are you getting out of this?

jhchooo - while no one can anticipate delays, all we can go on is what the estimator says currently. If they want the car and can spare the 1K, then I'd tell them to get in line. It sounds like they are going to try to get to as many or most US reservation holders before moving outside the US in 2019 - waiting could put them behind them.

bayareakid2008 | 17. tammikuu 2018

KP,

He asked for opinions. I gave mine. How is that trolling?

Given the major delays, I'd say my timelines are much more accurate than the delivery estimator.

Kj11856 | 17. tammikuu 2018

Why are the current Tesla owners getting the 3 first. They already have a Tesla. Seems to me if you wanted more of a Clint base, people that don’t currently own a Tesla should be first. Being that the Model S and X are so expensive seems to me like Tesla is catering to rich people first. Not right. I want the car, but I don’t think it’s right I have to wait 2 years to get the car.

spockagain34 | 17. tammikuu 2018

@kjar71, if it weren't for the Model S & X owners there wouldn't be a Model 3. This is why they are getting priority. So we should be thankful to them for helping Tesla exist and create this amazing car that we will get our hands on all in good time.

PhillyGal | 17. tammikuu 2018

it;s my opinion that the moment these cars hit streets and showrooms, demand will increase. Just like reservations went from 115k before the reveal to something like 373k within a week. That being said, if you can afford to let someone else hold $1,000 of your money, put the deposit down.

jamespompi | 17. tammikuu 2018

@jhchooo I also just bought myself a ticket to the end of the longest line. (December 17') I was on the fence for a few months not knowing if the credit would survive the new tax plan. Ultimately I decided fronting 1K for the potential to get some credit outweighed kicking myself for not taking the chance.. Not to mention being able to put the reservation fee on a credit card helps too.

KP in NPT | 17. tammikuu 2018

+1 PG. When people start to have contact with this car, demand is going to skyrocket. Some people won't want to wait, but plenty others will get in line.

Kikujiro | 17. tammikuu 2018

Thanks for the opinions. Most of you would advise to put in the reservation. Forgot to add, these people and myself included are not died-in-the-wool Tesla fans or car enthusiasts and could care less if they get it now or next year. However, the non-Tesla enthusiasts have been very impressed with this car and there seems to be a lot of interest and coverage by the media... more so now than two years ago. Once 500K of these go out in the world, I really think there will be much more demand and potentially create a perpetual queue and waiting list.

bayareakid2008 | 17. tammikuu 2018

Jhchooo, there is simply not enough demand for there to be a perpetual queue, at least not one that is more than a month long. $40k+ cars don't sell in such high volumes.

Kikujiro | 17. tammikuu 2018

jamespompi that was the exact logic I used to put in the reservation... that and I wanted to get first hand feedback from owners. From everything I read and seen, this is an amazing feat of technology and is a superior to Model S in terms of motor and battery technology, practicality and build quality. I will advise people to fork over the $1000.

jamespompi | 17. tammikuu 2018

@jhchooo With your last comment I'd say that I've always found the cars super cool and I really do admire what EM is doing, but was in no way a die hard Tesla fan. After I put the money down and started reading every bit of information I could on the car is when the obsession set in..

Kikujiro | 17. tammikuu 2018

bayareakid2008 from how much battery prices have been falling... this may be a $30K or even $25K car in the near future. Then I do not dare guess how high the demand will be... especially if you can super charge it in 10-15 min at 1/3 cost of gas. That effectively is the death blow to gas.

burdogg | 17. tammikuu 2018

kjar71:
Some facts - The Model 3 would not exist if it were not for Model S and X owners - period, end of discussion. This is not Gm who decided to come up with a Bolt but already have a how many other vehicles out there?
Tesla is only in existence because Model S and X owners took a chance on a company..and for that, Tesla said Thank you for making the Model 3 possible, we will put you first in line - a great business gesture, not catering to rich. But hey, we love to through the "rich" term around. Tesla has grown a ton, because of Current Model S and X owners - Tesla does not advertise, instead, current owners do enough advertising for them...for free.

Second point: Show me any company that reveals a car that has it ready to go and be bought in the timeframe that Tesla has. I already did this exercise on another thread for someone saying Gm whipped out the Bolt in no time, why can't Tesla. I went on to show him that GM took OVER 2 years to get the car to anyone. Tesla has done it (not counting employees) in 1 year 9 months! I can find that thread if you would like, or just do some research to realize that Tesla is ahead of any other car company from conception to delivery.

Third - no one had to put a reservation in. So people that want to cry it is not right...Tesla did not ask you to give a $1,000 fully refundable deposit at the time the car was revealed. Lets also say this - it is not 2 YEARS yet. :) Now, it may be two years before you get yours, but again, still ahead of what any other car company.

Fine, can't stand it - here you go, speaking of the Bolt Timeline:
"Initial concept debuting at the 2015 North American International Auto Show" - this was Jan 2015
"June 2015, General Motors had tested more than 50 Bolt prototypes hand-built"
"Ordering began in California and Oregon in mid-October 2016.[72] The first three Bolts were delivered in the San Francisco Bay Area on December 13, 2016"

So Jan 2015 to Mid Dec 2016 - and by end of Dec, only some 300 delivered if I remember correctly - so yes, basically 2 years.

So don't act like this is not right having to wait 2 years to get a car - that there is just ridiculous and ill informed on how long it takes for a new car to come to market...

On the Op topic - many have had Tesla have their $1,000 for 1 yr. 9 months already. Tesla's website says: "Reserve your Model 3 today for delivery in 12 to 18 months." So if I were them, I would put the deposit in, just to make sure I am in line to get it as soon as possible.

But that is me. They can wait and who knows when they would be able to go online or walk into a store and order one like you do a S or X today. It could be at that same time, or it could be 2-3 years before that can happen :)

billstanton | 17. tammikuu 2018

@jamespompi exactly my position, except I stopped procrastinating on Day 2.

@Jhchooo tell your friends to drink the Kool Aid. And love that comment about buying a ticket to the longest line (ever?)

Rocky_H | 17. tammikuu 2018

@jhchooo, Quote: ". I am about to advise them they should just wait till next year to see what pans out and the current queue to disappear"

Wait for the queue to disappear?! Heh, good luck with that. Going to wait until no one else is ordering the car any more and then get in there, huh? That's a bit like someone getting to the end of an entrance ramp to the highway and saying, "Oh, I'd better let that car go by. Oh, there's someone behind him--better let them go too. Whoops, there's someone else behind him--better wait for that one too. Oh, there's another....." You're never going to go.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 17. tammikuu 2018

"Does anyone agree with this logic?"

Terrible advice.

Shock | 17. tammikuu 2018

"Does anyone agree with this logic?"

Absolutely not. If you have interest in this car or in ANYTHING and you can reserve a spot in a lineup without undue financial burden, why would you not put the money down?

IMO the only way to lose the $1k is if tesla goes belly up. It could happen, it's a risk (small one), but if it does odds are you'd have time to pull the $1k out most likely. You'd see a few quarters of terrible news first or cancellation of the car or something. And frankly if you are not willing to take that risk you are not going to ever sign off on this car anyway, so be honest with yourself about it.

Haggy | 17. tammikuu 2018

All I can say is that I reserved on day one, and chances are excellent that anybody who reserves today won't have to wait as long as i did. Anybody who doesn't reserve will have to wait indefinitely. If a person really can't wait so long, I'd suggest looking into a used Model S in a similar price range. The ones coming off lease right now are from 2014 and should have autopilot hardware that has a level of autopilot as good as what the Model 3 has now, with some features that the Model 3 doesn't have. If you are never planning to get FSD, you will gain more than you'd lose with a used Model S. The other exception would be if you need 300+ miles of range, a used Model S will be far more expensive.

Bri | 17. tammikuu 2018

We’re strongly considering putting in another reservation, especially if it can be rolled into a Model Y reservation. Maybe after we get our M3 invite which I expect in a month or so.

badaman | 17. tammikuu 2018

@Bri - I just placed a second order 5 minutes ago and expect to get my first in a month or two (3/31/16) reservation.