Is it true that Tesla has a Model S (or a Roadster) with 500,000 miles on it and it only lost 20% capacity on the battery?
Here is Elon Musk's actual quote from USA Today:
"We don't think anybody could put enough miles on to kill the (85 kwh) pack. That could turn out to be wrong, but we have half-a-million miles on one in the lab," says Tesla chief Elon Musk. "Even the 60 kwh customers will be able to take it well over 200,000 miles."
He's talking about killing the pack outright, he's not saying anything about the reduction in capacity.
I did lots of research on this before I bought my car, plus many phone calls and documents on this type of battery cell's. As I drive 50k a year to Boeing and reviewed battery info a lot lately LOL..I played the numbers of how long the battery's last too. Let say that an average person only drives 15,000 miles per year. Now know that at 270,000 miles or 18 years there is a 30% deaggregation. So 8 years unlimited miles I one or rare that would pass that rate but at the same point the battery have a curve of deaggregation that levels off at a point so the hit that point deaggregation is almost nothing. I believe on of Tesla keys is setting the batterys up that if you lose a cell you not lose the bank like a laptop battery. Again this just my view who knows if it is even correct but I feel it is and thank the team that made the car to work so well with there battery design.
Now both of these replys makes me not want to pay into the battery replacement program, that could $10K saved. I maybe able to keep the car ten years and just sell as is. I hope someone can talk me out of it.
In much less than 7 years the suspension, steering, and braking systems will be as obsolete as manual steering and non-power brakes are today. You'll be driving a "classic" with outdated technology. For all intents and purposes a 5 year warranty is plenty.
You have 10K up front cost for a battery which you may not need. although this battery replacement purchase might be transferable, a better investment would be in TSLA. With the easy battery swap, a third party might even develop a Tesla compatible battery pack and their own swapping technology by then. The bottom line is the product development cycle is way to short to support this pre-purchase and if you are cashing in on this swap eight years from now, I could almost assure you TSLA will be trading at 10X today's price.