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After "X" reveal, might your "S" switch to "X"??

After "X" reveal, might your "S" switch to "X"??

I heard Elon say the model S bridges the gap between a sedan and a minivan and the model x brides the gap between a minivan and an suv. Pretty good market segments to go after.

Question is might you switch your reservation to an X? Or buy both? The only thing I like better on the X is the available 4 wheel drive (for the snow)

Problem is I do not know if I want to wait another year. How about you?

Brian H | January 15, 2012

Volker.Berlin | January 15, 2012 new

Actually, my oldest (12) strongly objects to us buying a car. I'm still thinking how I can win her over, but as the first thing I had to promise I'd never drive her to school.

IIRC, that's really major socializing time. And info gathering, etc. A fast drop-off means you arrive at the battle unarmed ...

Brian H | January 15, 2012

Aside from which, schools are aggressively filling kids' heads with really egregious anti-tech and anti-industrial memes and "principles", with heavy moral self-righteous overtones. Don't tell me you haven't had a few lectures on your Evil Western Ways!

Volker.Berlin | January 16, 2012

If I end up loosing a lot of miles due to increased weight, that my sway me against it. (Max)

There's not only weight. Increased aerodynamic drag may have even more impact on the Model X' range, at least at highway speeds. We can assume that the Model X will have a similarly superior Cd value as the Model S (at .22 or .225), but A(rea) will be larger. It does not make much difference in city driving, but then again, if you only do city driving, range should not be an issue in the first place.

Brian H | January 16, 2012

And aerodynamics are not much of an issue off-road. So what % of the time will be Xpent on the highway, at, say, 80kph+?

EdG | January 16, 2012

If the X is used as SUV usage is common near me, most of the miles would be highway miles. Most of my neighbors buy SUVs for the weight (implied safety), the look (above and protected from others) and/or the ability to see the road ahead where there are so many other SUVs.

Some SUV drivers seem to think they have the right-of-way. I think this is due to either (1) they bought the SUV because they know they have royal blood or (2) the SUV they drive is so big that others are intimidated and, after a while, they realize they might as well go first. It's a whole culture unto itself, and it makes it difficult for purchasers to drive anything else.

Note: I'm not talking about people who actually drive on surfaces other than asphalt or concrete. I've seen some pretty respectable off-roaders. Around here, though, I don't think anyone takes their Lexus SUV anywhere it might get dirty.

Peak Oil bruin | January 16, 2012

Volker, I'd love to have your dilemma. Leider, die VS sind so auto-centric.

Brian H | January 16, 2012

POb;
"Leider" is hardly reasonable. Germans have no inkling of the distances involved in N.A. In the 60s a friend's parents visited him in Toronto from Germany. They drove to Niagara Falls, which is a minor day-trip for Canadians. The whole of the 401 highway surroundings from Toronto through that "Southern Ontario" strip is quite built up by our standards, even then. But on the fairly crowded stretch from Hamilton to St. Catherines (some open land, vineyards, etc.), they were overwhelmed and gobstruck by the vast distances between towns, etc.!

I told him he should have put them on the observation car on a train to Thunder Bay and back (near Sault Ste Marie at the western end of Lake Superior). About a day each way, much of it through wild terrain and pine forest. Its suburb, Longlac, just over 100 mi. NE as the crow flies, is as close as you can get by passenger rail these days, of course.

Or even Wawa, at the eastern end.

They'd never have been the same!

Brian H | January 16, 2012

Actually, most of that is the QEW highway, now that I think about it. Same point. And that trip to Thunder Bay probably takes about 36-48 hrs each way (on the train, non-stop). And that's barely scraping the southern fringes of Northern Ontario.

It's literally overwhelming.

Brian H | January 16, 2012

Just checked. ~1400 km by road, somewhat more by rail. With stops, probably a full day (24 hrs) each way.

Volker.Berlin | January 17, 2012

Brian H, all right and true. Yet that's hardly an explanation or excuse why North Americans are as "auto-centric" as they are. For long distances like that, high-speed trains for example make a lot more sense, but you simply don't have the rail infrastructure, while you do have the road infrastructure. That's a historical and cultural issue, but not an inevitable consequence of the landscape.

Same for the cities. Yes the average American city is bigger than the average German city, but actually the bigger a city, the more advantage has public transportation over cars. However, I understand that you avoid your public transportation whenever you can, because it lacks in many regards. North Americans have no inkling of how comfortable and convenient public transportation (local or distance) can be, if done right.

Brian H | January 17, 2012

"you simply don't have the rail infrastructure, while you do have the road infrastructure. That's a historical and cultural issue, but not an inevitable consequence of the landscape."

Um, not so. You REALLY need to do some driving around the continent. Count how many rail stations there are in Germany. Multiply by the population ratio US/Germany (~5?). Divide that number of stations amongst the population centers of the US. Now, count the towns and villages that missed out. Now, connect them all with imaginary rail lines, and total the distance. Multiply the total German rail link distance by ~5(?). Divide the result into the previous distance.
I bet you have a figure close to 10 than to 1.

It's your "walking to the grocery store" or to work writ large, as though your "useful distances" were multiplied by 10 or so. Maybe by 100.

And in Canada, there used to be far more rail lines than there are now in use. They were dropped because the number of "spur lines" required to service (e.g.) remote agricultural centers and silos and far-flung towns and villages was impossible to carry or justify economically.

It's a different world, VB. "Don't criticize what you don't understand."

Brian H | January 17, 2012

P.S. Rail between distant major centers is present and heavily used. Another difference here is the Rockies and Coastal mountain ranges. Imagine a 4,000-mile long strip of the Alps. Pierce with half a dozen rail lines. Some of the most dramatic engineering and route construction sagas ever undertaken achieved that. There was huge sacrifice, especially by immigrant Chinese labour. It was (probably truthfully said) that there was one dead Chinese worker for every mile of rail across the mountains.

The projects were completed (in Canada) by a country with, at the time, perhaps 1/4 of Germany's, and a far more undeveloped industry.

Ever hear Gordon Lightfoot on the subject?
http://www.mp3s.pl/mp3/Gordon_Lightfoot/Canadian_Railroad_Trilogy/3366693

Brian H | January 17, 2012

typo: 1/4 of Germany's population; and ...

Volker.Berlin | January 17, 2012

Brian H, I'm not criticizing. I'm trying to understand.

There's also a large fraction in the German population who'd say without hesitation they "need" a car, that's not a purely American attitude. Some of them actually do, by some kind of objective measure, and some live in the same circumstances like I do, and I know I don't "need" a car. It's really icing on the cake, and there is no economical or ecological justification for me to own a car. Pure luxury.

What I was trying to say: I you look closer, you'll discover that many people who think they "need" a car could actually get around quite well without one. And if they actually can't, it's frequently due to the fact that it's not part of the culture to even consider living without a car (except for the "poor", "lower class") and therefore the infrastructure (public transportation, car sharing, bicycle lanes) is lacking. An incarnation of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I am not saying that for all or even most Germans it would be possible or desirable to live without a car, and I'm far from judging Northern Americans. All I'm saying is that frequently a car isn't as "inevitable" as many people think, if you seriously consider living without it. And more: If there was more of a culture of living without a car, infrastructure would grow (the law of supply and demand) and more people would make the switch without any serious sacrifices. Even in North America.

Brian H | January 17, 2012

Well, you still don't get what that infrastructure involves. The cost per user is so high that it's economic insanity to try and replace much road traffic with rail for human movement here. The delusory high-speed rail project on US east coast is going to achieve bupkis, e.g.

As a followup to the (great) song I linked above (did you listen?), the "best railroad song ever written" (by Steve Goodman, made famous by Arlo Guthrie) also deals directly with the subject:
http://www.angelpig.com/cityofneworleans2.html

Brian H | January 17, 2012

Touching story associated with the "discovery" of the New Orleans song. Goodman, already suffering from the leukemia that killed him almost 20 yrs later, was introduced to Guthrie in a bar/club, much to Guthrie's irritation as he sat trying to be anonymous and enjoy the evening. He consented to take a tape (1970) and audit it, but Goodman said he didn't have one, could he sing it? Irritation multiplied, Guthrie consented. By the end of the song, he was telling Goodman he'd be honoured to record it, overwhelmed by its impact.
Royalties from the song kept Goodman happy, well-off, and touring (what he most loved to do) for the rest of his life.

petero | January 17, 2012

Sorry no X for us, sticking with the S. Sad to say, my family owns 6 ICE cars too (3 are toys).

Robert.Boston. I agree with you 100%. The S is larger than I too would prefer. My next Tesla will hopefully be a high performance, smaller, sedan.

Discoducky. You may wish to consider a Jeep Wrangler for your Moab excursions. I doubt the X will have sufficient ground clearance to make it out of the parking lot.

Volker. Berlin. I enjoyed your ranting very much. Not just any car … a Tesla. I “want “ one too!

stephen.kamichik | January 17, 2012

When I test drive the model S, I will ask myself "do I need a car like this?" I will probably answer myself wth "oh baby, you need a car just like this."

Larry Chanin | January 17, 2012

I'm expecting that the Model X will be more expensive, heavier, and have less range than the Model S. I do not like the looks of SUVs, and while I am curious what Tesla will do with regard to the styling of the Model X, I can't envision it being more stylish than the Model S. Lastly, we have no need to transport 7 adults.

Larry

Brian H | January 18, 2012

Got an email from the dude who runs TeslaRumors:

Brian,

I just wanted to let you know that I've noticed the recommendations you've posted in various sites directing them to TeslaRumors.com and I just wanted to thank you for your support. I appreciate it.
I also wanted to tell you what the website will feature next:

1. List of all cars by order of 5-year operating cost
2. Cost of charging all 3 varieties of Model S in each U.S State.
3. Estimated Break-even point in time for all cars vs the Model S

Thanks again.

Feel free to email me any time at max@teslarumors.com

Best regards,
Max Mindel

Should be worth following. I wrote back and asked him if he had any impressions or rough data matching the indications here that just over half of all purchases were the 300mile battery. No response yet.

Discoducky | January 18, 2012

That site is awesome and I point the "doubters" at it.

Kudos to Max; That site looks like it took and takes a big chunk of time.

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