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Another sucker succumbed to the EV heat wave!

Another sucker succumbed to the EV heat wave!

Toyota announced that they would electrify it's entire fleet by 2025. Translation - they would have hybrids for most of their line up, with minimal attention to pure EV models. It sounds like the the once tiny upstart kicked another dinosaur in the groin.

Hmm, Tesla's entire fleet has been EV since day one.

VW, BMW, MB, and now Toyota all made similar claims. Who's up next on deck?

mabuck | January 7, 2019

To be expected. It’s the new technology and will take over rapidly.

Volvo will also be fully electric by 2025, and they will be hybrid/electric only starting next year I believe.

Magic 8 Ball | January 7, 2019

Good to see capitulation.

I wonder what will the regulators will think up to replace smog inspection stations?

mabuck | January 7, 2019

Not only that, but wait until they start requiring road tax be collected just to get your tags. Things are gonna change.

billstanton | January 7, 2019

mabuck: Yeah, CA not only has a $100 registration fee for EVs it is now discussing a mileage tax for electric cars. Could it be oil lobbying?

TeslaTap.com | January 7, 2019

I'm surprised Toyota didn't say they were 100% electrified today. Ever Toyota does have a 12v battery.

AWDTesla | January 7, 2019

Yup, some interesting times coming, that's for sure. Our government benefits from some of the highest gas prices and taxes in the world, so once that revenue starts dipping, it will be interesting to see what these crooks come up with.

Infiniti Pi | January 7, 2019

Google Tony Seba. You’ll love his talk on disruption of transportation and EV. He predicted a few years ago that 100% of new vehicles will be EV by 2025.

barrykmd | January 7, 2019

So has Toyota given up on their fuel cell pursuit?

Sparky | January 7, 2019

Tony Seba's talk is excellent. And there is a predictive graph of vehicle electrification which predicts many turning points along the way. One of them is that Formula 1 will merge with Formula E to create one world wide electric racing series. At first I thought that this development may be a bit of a stretch until I realized that it will be Ferrari who pushes for it in order to transition their brand to electric without gutting their entire DNA.

As Bob Dylan said, The times they are a changing.

Mathew98 | January 7, 2019

Fool cell is still consider partially BEV.

Infiniti Pi | January 7, 2019

@Sparky, he has the report on his website—which I downloaded—since it is hard to see the graphs on the video. Good, detailed graphs in there.

gballant4570 | January 7, 2019

Toyota will still be prone to not surviving the approaching gate. Some hybrids will sell, but very soon no one will be suckered in by range anxiety - especially as charging networks grow. Led by Tesla of course.

Hybrids have never been more than a transition step toward EVs. If Toyota adjusts their entire aim toward hybrids, their failure is already written on the wall.

kevin_rf | January 7, 2019

Toyota has had excellent hybrids on the market since the early 2001. They put them on the market to protect against Bush Sr. and Clinton's super car program, only to find the threat from Detroit was a paper tiger. They could have done this much sooner, all I can say is 10 years too late and a dollar short.

ReD eXiLe ms us | January 7, 2019

...and chicks for free. All you gotta do is learn how to play this guitar...

General Motors and Ford claim to be 'on deck', but I rather doubt it. FCA is crtain to demand their right to build and sell gas guzzling, fire breathing, smoke churning ICE vehicles. With 'everyone else' claiming to 'electrify'in coming years, FCA may manage to get an exemption from mileage and emissions regulations for a time.

Mathew98 | January 7, 2019

@Red - GM just cut a few sedan models for the sake of uncompetitive environment. Their mass market EV effort was the Bolt. Their sale numbers speak for itself. Enough said.

F is exiting the entire sedan market in North America with Mustang being the sole survivor. Same excuse for exiting the sedan market.

Their plans of survival rely heavily on SUV and pick up trucks. There's a very slim chance they would electrify anything in the near term. They might not even be around in a decade.

Jiver | January 7, 2019

@mabuck CO charges $50/year for EVs. The gas tax is going to have to go away. Personally I think one should be taxed on some formula involving weight of the vehicle and miles driven.

I have no idea what that formula would be and I would guess that there would be plenty of people out to cheat it such that it would not work out.

lbowroom | January 7, 2019

EV's still run on roads. Those roads need repairs. Those repairs cost money. If that money isn't collected with gas tax, it needs to come from somewhere.

jordanrichard | January 7, 2019

Dealers will love this because they get to charge more for labor on Hybrids.......

mabuck | January 7, 2019

@ibowroom

Oh, it'll come no doubt. I wont be surprised if they try to get more out of people than driving a gas car. State inspections will be mileage based to determine tax burden.

It will change for the worse. The nice thing about gas is it is charged as you use it, not as a flat fee or mileage fee.

terminator9 | January 7, 2019

In Virginia we pay property tax on cars. This isn't $50 or $100 but for a 60k car, it would be around $2000 for the year (every year does down some with depreciation) - fix the roads from that or the thousands of dollars I pay for house tax and income tax. Every little thing that they government does, do not need a new tax imposed - reuse the money that they have instead of wasting it places where it isn't needed.

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EV's still run on roads. Those roads need repairs. Those repairs cost money. If that money isn't collected with gas tax, it needs to come from somewhere.

ReD eXiLe ms us | January 7, 2019

Ah. The much needed and often spoken of past due repairs to potholes that have never been done through the past half dozen or so election cycles in communities coast-to-coast throughout the U.S.? Sure. Talk to us more about that... 'necessity'... And raising yet more tax dollars to be misappropriated (redirected for emergencies?) from the General Fund each year.

bj | January 7, 2019

@AWDTesla - “Our government benefits from some of the highest gas prices and taxes in the world”

Are you in the USA? The USA has extremely cheap gasoline. You should try European prices.

SamO | January 7, 2019

Who the F wants a hybrid. Just means you have to carry around a useless appendage of an ICE and fill it up, without the independence of an EV.

No thanks.

Mathew98 | January 7, 2019

There's someone running the country with a rather useless appendage. Just saying...

lbowroom | January 7, 2019

Reuse money, there is plenty of money around, no roads get repaired or expanded... tell me more of you fantasy life. No one likes paying, duh.

How is a tax based on your mileage not charge as you use?

jordanrichard | January 7, 2019

Terminator9, perhaps you don’t understand how property taxes work on cars. I am in CT and we pay an annual property tax on our cars. The property taxes go to the town, not the state. Gas tax goes to the state. So people can buy a bazillion gallons of gas from my local gas station and the town gets nothing. So my point is, us not paying our fair share of road (gas) tax, plays no part in the town roads. So those us payin property tax on our cars are in fact contributing to the repair of town roads/bridges.

Now, yes, we are driving free of charge on state roads, but if other states are like CT, our government constantly diverts monies from the TRansportation fund to cover other state programs. So until they pass a law that makes it illegal to move funds from the transportation fund, I will continue to drive guilt free.

tscats | January 7, 2019

Perhaps part of the reason Toyota and other car makers haven't put BEVs in their plans is because they can't. They can no doubt put in the engineering effort. Rather it is the supply of batteries, or lack thereof, that constrains their plans.

They know they could not get their hands on enough batteries at reasonable cost to produce millions of BEVs in the next few years.

jordanrichard | January 7, 2019

Tscats, and that is where Tesla comes in. Your friendly local battery supplier............. I and many others have been saying that Tesla has cleverly created an EV market, while becoming a huge battery maker/supplier knowing full well that the mentality of the other OEMs is to buy parts versus make them. So the other companies want to make EVs, they will come to Tesla to get them.

RES IPSA | January 7, 2019

Do we have the electrical grid / infrastructure to allow even half of the cars on the roadway to be purely electric?

Most people will not put solar panels on their roofs (expensive) unless they are forced to because of new construction in the coming years in CA.

Restart the old nuclear reactors if EV's become a lot more popular?? Too bad fusion is too far off

Mathew98 | January 7, 2019

Tesla isn't making the battery packs for their cars and energy storage needs fast enough. Fat chances they would sell some to other competitors. They could some their inferior packs elsewhere.

Mathew98 | January 7, 2019

Most EV owners charge at home overnight, where demands are much lower. There are already urban superchargers popping up in major metro cities for urban dwellers.

If you have a 120V socket, then you're already set up for EV charging. The grid is already set up to replace ICE in every house.

jordanrichard | January 7, 2019

Mathew98 +1.

When I suggested Tesla becoming a battery supplier to other OEMs, I was talking about eventually. Meaning once they can get battery production to exceed their own needs.

tscats | January 7, 2019

@jordanrichard - By the time Tesla's vehicle growth stagnates, I imagine there will be at least a few viable alternatives that are cheaper but "good enough".

I suspect selling components, like a battery pack, would have lower margins, which presumably Tesla would avoid.

ReD eXiLe ms us | January 7, 2019

RES IPSA: Does the entire grid in your area have to be torn out and replaced every time a new coin laundry is installed? Each time a new apartment building is erected, built to use electric stovetops, electric ovens, and microwaves in each unit? If so, I would suggest you move. Otherwise, there is more than enough electricity abounding for 100% of vehicles to be fully electric. No one seems to worry if there is enough Platinum to spare for building the emissions systems for millions of ICE vehicles per year. Or the whole 1,000 or so HFCEVs that reach U.S. consumers each year. Oh, but when it comes to electric cars suddenyl there's going to be a shortage of Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Cobalt, Nickel, and everything else, right? Whatever, Man...

kevin_rf | January 7, 2019

Assuming people are smart and don't charger during peak demand (4pm to 10pm) the power grid has enough existing capacity to handle off peak EV demand.

Nighttime off peak is about 2/3 the demand of the evening peak demand.

Now to play with some numbers, I drive roughly twice the "average" driver (30k miles a year) and have been averaging about 600 kwh a month/20 kwh a day. The average driver will need 10kwh a day, if you consider the average home uses 20-30 kwh a day, most of it during peak demand, an extra 10kwh off peak is 1/3 of the peak demand, meaning the only effect will be peakers stay on later each night while most of us sleep. The power companies sell more power, the peakers are on for more hours each day, the EV's are charged and happy, and the average Joe is shelling out 70% less in energy costs than if he kept his ice. Everybody wins.

Btw a nice graph of electric demand through the day. A little dated. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830

kaffine | January 7, 2019

lbowroom | January 7, 2019
Reuse money, there is plenty of money around, no roads get repaired or expanded... tell me more of you fantasy life. No one likes paying, duh.

How is a tax based on your mileage not charge as you use?

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Because I am not going to swing by the DMV every month to have them check my mileage and pay my tax. I'm guessing it will end up being a yearly inspection and then a large tax bill when you register your car (at least for me driving 50k miles).

Not sure they would be able to use GPS based and more frequent billing as privacy groups would have a fit at the idea of the car tracking you with GPS and reporting that info to the DMV. That would solve a few issues as I drive a fair amount off road so why should I pay for road maintenance if I am not on roads. Then there are those that drive out of state frequently so they should pay taxes to other states for use of their roads.

Yes they will need to tax EV for road use. They also need to increase road tax for those fuel efficient cars. Then they also need to actually use the money collected for repairing roads to repair roads. I think it is funny that Domino's Pizza is now doing road repair as a marketing gimmick. Waiting for Walmart or Amazon to decide it is cheaper to repair some roads than pay for the damage to their trucks.

jordanrichard | January 8, 2019

For anyone concerned about "privacy issues" in regard to this subject, turn off your phone, don't use an ATM, don't go to the store and use your debit/credit card, etc., etc., etc. People just panic over this "privacy issue" for just the sake of panicking.

It's like posting a picture of your car online and the blurring out the license plate. Like no one with eyes can't see your license plate or VIN number while the car is sitting in a parking lot.

Since wear and tear of the roads is directly related to weight, then any road tax should be based on a vehicles weight. Yes, that would mean out Tesla's or EVs in general would be taxed more than an equivalent sized car.

JustSaying | January 8, 2019

There are 4,000 wind turbines in the Palm Springs area, last week end , a very cold windy day only a few had their blades tilted so they could engage the wind and spin. With no daytime demand they sit idle.
Install some batteries( I know a company they can buy them from), store the stuff and also shut down the "peaking power plants"

Sleepydoc1 | January 8, 2019

How much electricity does the local refinery use to make gas for my car. Now what if that electricity went into my car rather than refining that gas. Probably pretty even. I charge at night when it is $0.071 /kWh. They are practically giving away the electricity. Then solar in daytime limits my drain on the grid. My neighbors get my overproduction until I get a home battery system.

kevin_rf | January 9, 2019

The answer is 5-6kwh per gallon of gas produced. Or, about as much electricity as it takes us to drive there same distance. Model 3 Performance owners excluded.

When you look it up, 5-6kwh to produce a gallon. A gallon contains roughly the energy equivalent of 33kwh hours. Which is why they use 33kwh when calculating eMPG. It just shows how inefficient ICE vehicles really are.

NoMoPetrol | January 9, 2019

While we, the happy owners of BEVs, are dead certain that we are driving the future of automobiles, it might be worthwhile to address the fate of the Sony BetaMax. It was, by all accounts, superior to VHS. The people who owned them raved about the picture quality, sound output, etc.

However, according to Wikipedia, "...The main determining factor between Betamax and VHS was the cost of the recorders and recording time. Betamax is, in theory, a superior recording format over VHS due to resolution (250 lines vs. 240 lines), slightly superior sound, and a more stable image; Betamax recorders were also of higher quality construction. But these differences were negligible to consumers, and thus did not justify either the extra cost of a Betamax VCR (which was often significantly more expensive than a VHS equivalent) or Betamax's shorter recording time."

Translation to the adoption of EVs. Tesla, like Sony, owned the lion's share of their respective infant markets. What brought down Sony in the end was price and convenience. In Tesla's case, a giant like Toyota that offers "electrified" vehicles including hydrogen fuel cell technology would give the oil industry a nice opportunity to transition to fuel cell stations from their current petroleum model. And don't think for one minute that the lobbying interests aren't available to make that the American standard.

I mean, I hope I'm dead wrong on this, but the reality is that Tesla still has less than 1% of automotive sales. Toyota? Considerably more.

NoMoPetrol | January 9, 2019

The link to the Wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videotape_format_war

Mathew98 | January 9, 2019

My 19 YO son is a prolific Wiki editor with 17,000 articles under his belt. How much faith do you put in the above referenced Wiki link?

Fool cells is akin to Betamax whereas Tesla has the 4K Blu-ray format. They're not even in the same generation of competing fuel alternative.

FC was the fuel of the future 3 decades ago. It still has the same tag line today.

Superchargers were few and far between them about 5 years ago. How many can you find in a 100 mile radius today?

Just because all the legacy brands are scrambling to introduce more hybrid and selected few EV models in 5 to 10 years, it doesn't solve the high speed charging problem for their "electrify" fleet.

spazzman90 | January 9, 2019

NoMoPetrol is absolutely right. We are far, far from out of the woods on this. All it would take is Toyota announcing a Fuel Cell Tacoma and Camry and a fuel company announcing its adding a couple thousand hydrogen stations, and that will spell disaster for the BEV movement. Who knows what Toyota and Honda have in mind, but from what I have read the summer games in Japan in 2020 should give us a clearer picture. They are expected to announce their and Japan's commitment to fuel cell at that time. And as we know VHS came late and was inferior, but ended up winning. We could see that again here.

NoMoPetrol | January 9, 2019

The Wiki story of the Betamax-VHS is consistent with what I remember of it. There are different ways to look at the comparison. In some respects Tesla could be considered more like VHS. But in my long life I've seen products like WD-40 own a commanding market share for no particularly good reason other than marketing, while far superior products like LPS were relegated to the Marine Supply stores.

I read far too many posts from giddy Tesla enthusiasts who think the war is won, at least philosophically. Tesla can only do so much at any one time. And if the oil industry along with Toyota and a few other major players decide that Tesla has too big a jump on them, it is not beyond the realm of reason to expect pushback via back door political channels to get concessions from Germany and the rest of the EU to head down a path more favorable to those interests than Tesla's.

I finish by restating what I said in my original post: I hope I am dead wrong on this.

95dawg | January 9, 2019

Agree fight isn't over by a long shot. Petrol companies are not going to give up on trillion Dollars in future profits. They are going to do everything they can to slow EV adoption.

I get a good laugh when I see Exxon commercial claiming they are working on energy from algae. A token marketing bs, like they are a progressive alternate energy company. Yes, algae can produce electricity, but 99.999999% of Exxon's time and money is focused on fossil fuel.

jordanrichard | January 9, 2019

Sorry, but go to your local town hall and ask to get a permit to build an immensely explosive hydrogen refilling station, near the local school.

jordanrichard | January 9, 2019

I know that was a bit melodramatic, but that is what the local zone planning is going to think. The potentially immense danger, should there be an accident at the hydrogen station.

dsvick | January 9, 2019

All it would take is few video clips of the Hindenburg to dissuade any large scale adoption of hydrogen. :)

AWDTesla | January 9, 2019

@Bj, not an american.

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