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Anybody else waiting for standard battery?

Anybody else waiting for standard battery?

Hey first post here, but have been lurking for a while.

I reserved pre-reveal in line in Raleigh, and was invited to configure a couple months ago, but have deferred because I actually am waiting on the standard battery :)
I know there must be a decent number of people deferring for this, but its amazing how quiet we all are? The forum almost never mention standard battery estimates
(Mine still says late 2018) - but plenty of chatter around AWD.

So Are there any other estimate for when this option will become available? Late 2018 would be perfect for me - but didn't know if any other hints have been made public.

Thanks - waiting patiently - Chuck

Alex_SD | June 1, 2018

I'm not only looking at my daily commute. I'm also looking at my week-end habits. Where do I usually go? How far is it? Can I make it on a single charge? Remember, the range is lower than 310 miles if you use A/C and drive 80 mph with strong winds... Are there any superchargers near by my week-end retreat? Etc.. I did all that and I decided to go for the long range... I also took into consideration the $7.5k available until the year end but lower after January 1st...

finman100 | June 1, 2018

I am.

soon.

I'm driving electric already and have ridden in a Model 3. so. yeah. waiting for short range, which is an oxymoron in all respects to 70 miles of Leaf range. just saying. So ready to move up. Go Elon!

mikeysb1011 | June 1, 2018

I am also waiting for the smaller battery. My gut is it will not happen. Elon just about said he can’t make the car profitable. Bloomberg agrees with me. Not sure what the real demand is. I am waiting 2 + years already. It’s $9000 more for the larger battery for 100 + miles. Can’t justify that.

rscarce | June 1, 2018

I'm waiting for a SR M3 as well. I actually have a long commute, so LR would be great, but I'm with mikey--I can't see the extra money. $35,000-plus is already 150 percent of the most expensive car I've ever owned, one of our Priuses.

I don't agree that we'll never see the $35K car. It'll happen, but not for a while. The recent German tear-down was reassuring on that front, and I get what Elon said about needing the dough that comes from pumping out the loaded models now. Our time will come.

As someone who only ordered a month ago--the end of our older Prius's life is at the horizon and rapidly approaching, so I finally made the jump--I know I have to wait. I'm hoping 12-plus months from now will be perfect timing for me and Tesla.

finman100 | June 1, 2018

Where do people get these stories?

WHEN production gets up to a certain point, all's well. wow. Costs come down and costs are recouped the more widgets are produced. Stay the course, it's working since most all disruptees (new term!) are filling the interwebs and media with all sorts of FUD and out of context quotes. What else did Elon say that is NOT being reported factually? It's the details that are being omitted for a purpose. The real demand? over 400,000 people are the real demand. period. again, just...wow. I'd say GM is in a world of hurt since too few Bolts are being made and too few people want one. Not a problem on the Tesla side. soon. I'm in the "I'd rather wait" camp while demand for the higher revenue Model 3 version gets orders filled so my base model can ALSO be profitable and continue the march to sustainable transport.

win-win.

Go Tesla! They are (pun intended) THE driving force to this end. (clean energy, sustainable transport and a whole lot of fun getting there)

gwolnik | June 1, 2018

I'm determined to hold Musk to his promise of the standard range! I was in line at dawn in California and should be at the top of the line for non-employee, non-owners if they are ever made. I currently have a Prius Plugin that gets about 12 miles of electric range, so I'm used to running errands around town and seeing how far I can get without letting the engine come on. I also am very aware of how speed and hills affect range, but I love driving up the hills to go hiking, then returning by recharging my little battery by gently braking, then barely having the range to make it the rest of the way home on "electron fumes." So, my experience in range awareness will help me optimize the standard range battery, which is way longer than what I currently have! Also, I prefer to fly and then rent a car when making longer trips, so the standard range will get me pretty much anywhere I usually drive. I've already upgraded my home charger to get ready for my Model 3, it can completely recharge my Prius in about an hour and will easily recharge the SR Model 3 overnight.

I also don't need or want PUP, I keep going over the list of included upgrades and I just don't want any! In fact, I really want a solid roof, so the glass roof is a negative. I would be satisfied with the basic black paint, but my spouse wants blue, so we will spring for the extra paint. Standard wheels are superior in every way, it is a mystery to me why anyone would pay more. AWD is a complete waste in my area, it never snows and rarely rains.

I do want EAP and will pay for that, although I may not use it as much as I originally thought after reading about the problems and also after personally witnessing the Model X that hit the Hwy 101 carpool lane exit to Hwy 85. I've used that exact exit myself countless times in my Plugin Prius but I was driving the other way shortly after that March 23rd crash and gawked at the sheared vehicle, which I didn't even recognize as a Tesla until the radio traffic reports mentioned that engineers from the nearby factory were on the way to help put out the battery fire! So, I will use EAP as a background assistant and will try to drive as if I am the only one in control. If and when FSD is available, I may add that later. So except for the software upgrades, I'm planning to get the basic car with extra paint.

sroh | June 1, 2018

They will make the standard battery. Just a question of when. Late this year? Early next year?

I think it will depend on just how many people are waiting for standard battery versus dual motor and/or performance. Tesla should keep on making the latter versions until they satisfy all those waiting. It only makes corporate/financial sense to do so.

Shock | June 1, 2018

I was but ultimately gave up. When, if who knows. Tesla confirmed recently they would die if they made it now. I believe it will only ever be made in tiny numbers. It is so sparse in features that with the federal credit gone when or if it comes few buyers will want to spend 35 on a car with manual seats and no adaptive cruise anyway.

lilbean | June 1, 2018

Yet Shock just won't go away.

mikeysb1011 | June 1, 2018

It’s just funny that all major financial organizations are the ones that reported this. I hope their all wrong and your right. I’m just saying what my gut is telling me and my background of mfg tells me. Volume does not always mean lower prices. Mfg has a fixed costs and this fixed costs cannot change no matter what the volume is unless you want to loose money. This is simply a fact. I’m not saying that is where he is. But, hum!!

mikeysb1011 | June 1, 2018

It’s just funny that all major financial organizations are the ones that reported this. I hope their all wrong and your right. I’m just saying what my gut is telling me and my background of mfg tells me. Volume does not always mean lower prices. Mfg has a fixed costs and this fixed costs cannot change no matter what the volume is unless you want to loose money. This is simply a fact. I’m not saying that is where he is. But, hum!!

mikeysb1011 | June 1, 2018

I hope Elon proves me wrong. I want the smaller battery. I am retired and on a fixed income and 35k is a lot better for me then 44k

sroh | June 1, 2018

Shock, I pity you if you have cancelled your reservation yet you still hang out here. You must lead a very small life that you don't have anything better to do with your time when you have no vested interest.

jcd82 | June 1, 2018

I was gonna do the SR, but considering I will be driving in the snow and cold of VT, and do enjoy traveling on the weekends, plus the extra $3750 tax credit, I’m leaning towards the LR AWD. Will by far be the most expensive vehicle I have ever purchased.

mikeysb1011 | June 1, 2018

Not sure who you are referring to. But I never cancelled my reservation and continue to wait. I am just stating my opinion. I would suggest that if you can’t be civil about what you post then you have no right to be on this forum where people are just trying to be infoand help each other and not be critical of each other

johnyi | June 1, 2018

So my gut tells me Elon has to show a profit in Q3 to quiet all the naysayers and maybe open up financing for his China factory / MY capital investments. So don't expect SR or non-PUP before Oct 1 (config might open before then, but no deliveries). He will likely have to show a profit in Q4 as well, which might push SR to Q1 unless there's enough profit coming in from the higher configs that they can support some small % of SR's in Q4. I wouldn't expect more than a few thousand $35K versions to be delivered in Q4, with full tax rebate. Good news is there's probably not many S/X owners holding out for that config, given their higher income bracket. So I predict there will be some opportunity for non-owners to get the full tax credit, especially line standers. And I don't see CA getting head of the line treatment on SR.

I'm also guessing at least all 3/31 reservation holders will get the $3750 rebate in Q1/Q2 on their $35K configs, and probably a good bit of newer reservation holders too. And by then, there will be so much focus on the new stuff that Tesla can go back in the red as they ramp up for the next wave of expansion.

Man this is so cool being part of a startup in expansion mode...

lilbean | June 1, 2018

@sroh The sad thing is he thinks he is actually helping people.

sroh | June 1, 2018

mikey, if you are referring to my post, it was directed at Shock, not you. If you know Shock's history, you will understand my post.

BUT, I will also respond to your post. Yes, many manufacturing costs are fixed. That's why it costs less per unit the more you produce. That is exactly what Elon is saying. Currently, they have not ramped up their volume to where per unit price covers their per unit cost. Since there is still a large demand for D/P cars, why not continue to make them?

sroh | June 1, 2018

Oops, I should add, unit price does not cover unit cost IF PRODUCING $35K CARS.

ksalberta | June 1, 2018

I am, with hope but not certainty, that it will ever be available.

If they don't start delivering them in early 19, I will probably just buy a Leaf.

ksalberta | June 1, 2018

@gwolnik - I also specifically don't want the glass roof. I want the solid metal roof for several reasons. So I find the stuff about the tax break to be very unconvincing - I would have to buy a configuration I really DON"T want to get the full break.

I am not mad at Tesla - it has to do what's best for the company and for everybody. But people do have different preferences.

joey | June 1, 2018

In Canada the long range battery is an extra 12,000 dollars. For 150km extra range. Which may actually translate to around 100km actual range.

So I ask myself....is it worth it? Would you pay 12,000 dollars for a bigger gas tank in a car?

MarylandS85 | June 1, 2018

@joey
That analogy is inadequate/incomplete. The long range battery Model 3 features the following advantages over the standard range battery which a “bigger gas tank” does not encompass:
- Fewer stops on road trips (and Supercharging takes longer than fueling an ICE-V, so it’s a big deal)
- Faster charging (both Supercharging and potential for home charging)
- Faster acceleration
- Higher top speed
- Better battery warranty
- Potentially less battery degradation, as you may be less apt to use a high state of charge or run it down to a low state of charge, and each individual cell will have fewer charges/discharges (all else being equal about how you drive)
- You can get it sooner (don’t underestimate this super important one!)

MarylandS85 | June 1, 2018

Also, isn’t the Canadian dollar equivalent to Monopoly money? So say my friends here in ‘Murica. :^) They also say “bigger is better,” so long range battery for the win!

Kidding aside, I’d have gotten the standard range battery if it were released simultaneously. Smart marketing move on Tesla’s part, that one.

MarylandS85 | June 1, 2018

Oh, and to add to my list of advantages of the LR battery, you may have range anxiety in the SR battery on road trips in sparsely located places with far-spaced Superchargers, especially if it’s cold and windy. Sounds like Canada, eh?

joey | June 1, 2018

For 12,000 dollars I could hire a tow-truck to tow me the extra range once a month for 5 years.

doelcm | June 1, 2018

"So I ask myself....is it worth it? Would you pay 12,000 dollars for a bigger gas tank in a car?"

Of course not. But maybe.

If it were 1964, and I had a need to frequently drive at night, when most gas stations were closed, then I would definitely pay the 1964 USD equivalent of 12,000 CAD for a bigger gas tank/more range. I'd be a fool to set myself up to run out of gas in the middle of nowhere, or sleeping in the car next to the gas pump for someone to come open up the store and unlock the pumps.

That's essentially where we are today with EVs. You have to plan your trips so that you will reach a Supercharger (or other charge point) before the battery runs down. And if you know you will be taking a lot of trips, having the extra range makes that planning easier.

I guess it's easier now, because we have apps that tell us where we can get a charge.

I wasn't born yet in 1964, but I do recall sleeping in the car (on a very cold night) next to the inactive gas pumps in the early 1980s.

tomcrymes | June 1, 2018

If you think the media was biased against Tesla now, just imagine the holy hell that will rain down on Elon and Tesla if he never produces a $35k car. It's been his core promise since the beginning. He promised consumers. He promised shareholders. By all accounts, it's core to the whole business plan. It seems like misleading shareholders would be a breach of ethics and maybe even actionable under law.

The $35k car will happen eventually.The main question, as I see it right now is: Assuming you qualify for the full Fed tax credit.... Is an extra $7500 worth the longer range, panoramic roof, and other interior upgrades over $35k car wtth no upgrades and probably no tax credit?

For me personally, if I had to look up at a solid roof I'd always kick myself for not splurging for the extras so I'm glad I could make it happen.

Before it's all over the standard $35k versions will far outnumber the LR version.

vp09 | June 1, 2018

Yes, I am waiting.

We have 2 S90Ds so I don't need another long range Tesla. I live 3 miles from work. 220 miles is plenty of range. I can charge in my garage anytime.

I plan to trade in my S90D on the Model 3 !!!!! Yes I know-- but I've always wanted the Model 3, not a giant 5 thousand pound behemoth, although after driving my silver S for 2 years now I am spoiled by it--

Also thinking of configuring with coil springs not air, and 19" wheels, and midnight silver-- and if I can't have ventilated seats, then standard interior and I'll buy that $20 Chinese seat air cushion shown on the other Tesla forum, the one where one can EDIT ones posts ….

mos6507 | June 1, 2018

Remember that Tesla still has Model S60s out there. They are spacing out Superchargers to faciliate long-range driving with the smaller packs and as time goes on expect even more locations inbetween. So I don't buy the argument that people will wind up stranded a few miles short of the next Supercharger.

I just think most of the advantages of the LR pack are "nice to haves" but not "must haves" and that's hard to justify for $9,000. It's pretty obvious Tesla is artificially upcharging the LR to increase their return and there's no way to really crunch the numbers to make the bang for the buck worth it. It's a luxury, plain and simple.

doelcm | June 2, 2018

"Before it's all over the standard $35k versions will far outnumber the LR version."

I doubt that. The SR version will have its place, but I think most buyers will find something to spurge on.

SR with PUP: $40K
SR with EAP: $40K
SR with AWD: $40K
SR with PUP and EAP: $45K
or at the very least, SR in MSM: $36K

Tesla doesn't give you a lot of choices with the Model 3, but there are still a lot of different potential combinations:

6 colors X 2 ranges X 2 trim levels X 2 drive trains X 2 wheel options + the performance version = 97 combinations!

The $35K basic black SR Model 3 with no options probably won't be a huge percentage of the total.

If you only meant that SR would be more popular than LR, then....maybe. That is a $9000 price difference that a lot of people will find it hard to justify.

Tuning In | June 2, 2018

The Model 3 is my third EV so I based my need for the LR from experience.

220 miles charged to 80% is 176miles. I don’t like to go below 20% so that means that I have an effective range of 136 if keep the car between 20 to 80%. I drive fast (75mph) do minus 15% in range and that came out to be 99 miles. On weekends I do often drive more that 100 around town so that SR isn’t good enough for me.

doelcm | June 2, 2018

I expect to frequently travel from my home outside Corsicana to Dallas for various errands. It's a 75 mile trip each way, plus any driving I do within the city. So 150 miles plus any driving around in Dallas. It's not that I'm worried about not finding a Supercharger or other charge point. There's one on the highway in Corsicana! It's that I don't want to have to plan my trip around spending half an hour at the Supercharger. I'd like to get there and back in one full charge, and then plug in at home. I don't expect 220 miles to be enough for me to do that.

The trip from my home to visit my friends in Houston will take half an hour longer if I have to stop at the Supercharger in Huntsville, but with the LR, I can comfortably do it without stopping. They have a Model S (soon to be traded for a Model 3) and a Model X, so I'll be able to charge when I arrive, for the trip back.

I'd like to make a round trip to visit my brother in Waco or my brother in Bryan without having to stop and charge somewhere.

The convenience of EVs is that you DON'T have to spend a lot of time refueling, because you do it at home. I believe that's true, but where I live I have to drive a significant number of miles to go many of the places I often travel. I don't even consider these "road trips". If you're not buying that I need long range because of supercharging and other charging options, it tells me that you don't value your time as much as I do.

spuzzz123 | June 2, 2018

@gwolnk and ksalberta

“I also specifically don't want the glass roof. I want the solid metal roof for several reasons.”

It’s my understanding that the non premium versions will still have glass roofs, but they will paint or line them with opaque material. I could be wrong but I thought for fabrication and supply simplicity this what they’re choosing to do. Kinda counterintuitive isn’t it? It will cost tesla more to produce the standard roof than the premium roof.

I’m only going by what I’ve read in these forums and it’s sometimes tough to filter out speculation from fact.

Shock | June 2, 2018

@mikeysb1011 re. your second post, I agree. Sometimes more volume equals simply more volume. If it costs me $100 to make a widget and I bring in two more lines, now I can make three widgets in the same amount of time. But I have three times the costs; each widget still costs $100.

What we know now, beyond the conjecture of tear-downs, because Musk said it, is that if they make the $35k car now the company dies. The only way they can make a meaningful number of $35k is by slashing cost hugely during manufacturing. This is possible if you have a product that is costly and it does so well you introduce new equipment and processes to lean out the cost. But if you anticipated, and intelligently constructed your lines to begin with, you should be starting at an efficient point.

What I'm saying is: Can tesla really lower the cost of each car by 20%? Or 30%, or whatever is needed to make even the $35k profitable? Probably not.

johnyi | June 2, 2018

@Shock, you're totally ignoring the amortization costs of all the production equipment and Gigafactory that went into building a production line for 500,000 units a year. That's a fixed cost, whether you make 1 unit or 500,000. So the closer you get to 500,000, the less per-unit you are paying for that fixed cost. What Musk is saying is that until they get to a 250,000/yr run rate, a base Model 3 is not cost effective because that per-unit amortized cost is too high. And of course the current public situation where everyone is screaming for him to show a profit now, which wasn't such a big deal last year when he had planned to ship the SR before AWD.

mos6507 | June 2, 2018

"It’s my understanding that the non premium versions will still have glass roofs"

Do you have a source for that?

Kathy Applebaum | June 2, 2018

We're waiting for SR for our second model 3. We have the long range for our weekend get-aways, so that's covered. The SR will replace our 80-mile range Leaf, so by contrast it will seem unlimited. :)

I think you're not hearing as much from the SR people as the AWD people, because AWD is so close they can taste it, while SR knows they still have months to wait.

peter.watson51 | June 2, 2018

IMO the standard battery will arrive. I will guess in 2019? Makes so much sense for those living in metropolitan areas, etc. The LR battery makes a lot of sense for those in remote or colder areas. There will be demand for both SR & LR.
Yes, profitability may rest on the Model3 right now(so they don't die), but don't underestimate Tesla,s other divisions ramping up. Solar and energy storage will be in demand as well. Such a no brainer to use the SUN!!!

mikeysb1011 | June 2, 2018

My 35k car would cost +5000 for priumum pkg + 5000 for autopilot so my 35k is actually 45k, but if I had to settle on l/r battery which starts at 44k and add the same features it be 54k. That 9000 is a big deal when retired and I fixed income.not sure how many above are in this position. This is a big deal for for me at this in my time in my life.

jjgunn | June 2, 2018

mos666 - "I just think most of the advantages of the LR pack are "nice to haves" but not "must haves" and that's hard to justify for $9,000."

--------

Disagree - especially if you receive the car NOW (in 2018) - $9,000 - $7,500(tax credit) = $1,500 for LR

So for all of you "debating" whether or not to go LR or SR - I'd say put the pressure on Tesla to get your LR car to you in 2018.

1) It helps the environment
2) It helps Tesla
3) You can STILL order a SR but drive the LR while you're waiting, & THEN......
4) Trade-in the LR for the SR

Does any of this make sense or am I the one not thinking correctly?

Yes, I do understand some people (like @mikeysb1011) may not have the means to do the above. In that case - short of a "GoFundMe" page I'm out of suggestions.

mos6507 | June 2, 2018

it's not just $9K. It's minimum $9K plus the premium upcharge. Even when you factor in the tax credits it's not worth it, IMHO.

Gr1354 | June 2, 2018

I don’t get why anyone anyone thinks they won’t make the 35k model.. if that were the case do people think that everyone that wanted one will now decide they want to spend an extra 15k..? No.. so what Tesla just all of a sudden doesn’t sell anymore 3’s because the demand is finished and they produced all the expensive cars people wanted.. they planned to mass produce this car which means they need to sell a lot of them.. only way they don’t make the 35k version is if they decide to cancel mass production once all the expensive orders are filled. Do people not understand the simple concept.. every company would do the same thing if they could sell a product.. one that costs 49 dollars and one that costs 35 but soooo many people want the 49 version that they don’t need to bother selling the 35 yet.. but once the 49 dollar product orders are filled OF COURSE THEY WILL SELL THE 35 DOLLAR ONE.. I’m totally confused what people don’t get about this.. is it just because everyone is that impatient? The factory is producing as many cars as they can just to fill PRE ORDERS..

minervo.florida | June 2, 2018

Elon WILL make the $35K car. There is no doubt or hurry.

Why the hell should he make it sooner, makes NO sense.

MSteg | June 2, 2018

I had been waiting for the SR. I got my invite for the LR 2 months ago but am about ot give up and go with a Chevy Bolt.

jjgunn | June 2, 2018

@Gr1354 - "is it just because everyone is that impatient?"
---------
Yes

mos6507 | June 2, 2018

"Why the hell should he make it sooner,"

Because people who waited in line first day didn't think being near the front of the line qualified them to wait indefinitely for a car hyped as "the affordable Tesla" just because they expect to pay the heavily hyped affordable base price.

Gr1354 | June 2, 2018

MSteg.. the bolt starts at 36k base.. yes u will get the 7500 credit but if ur going to spend that much money u really don’t want to wait...? Have you seen what the bolt looks like.. put 2 pictures side by side then decide if it’s worth the wait..

carlk | June 2, 2018

Not only the $9K upgrade would cost you only $1.5K but you likely could recoup perhaps $4K~5K when you sell the car. Even if you don't need the extra range or better acceleration this still sounds like a good financial deal to me.

EVolution | June 2, 2018

yeah x2

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