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Current Production Run Rate

Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

davidcjones | August 17, 2012

I think it will be a while. We are special sig #64, and although we put in our order a while ago, we haven't heard anything yet either (and we had been told we would be contacted 30 days before to set up the final financial arrangements).

demetri | August 17, 2012

The home page of the Tesla web site says AMPLIFIED we're ramping up the volume. When was this put up with a picture of the assembly line. This is the first time I have seen this. Great sign!!! Must be that most of the small finish problems have been resolved to the point that they can ramp up production. Elon said in the call that the ramp up is like flipping a switch. All those people worrying about getting 5000 by the end of the year can stop worrying. They are going to go from 50 a week to 50 a day sooner than we think.

jbunn | August 17, 2012

I also noticed the home page. I was hoping for another one of those articles, like the ones George supplied that we all looked forward too. Unfortunatly, the link just goes to the old main page. No explanation.

I know he's a busy guy, but I'd love to see his weekly emails back again. Or at least a story behind the Amplified link.

Sudre_ | August 17, 2012

Until S64 and S99 get that call it is still time to worry. They have about two weeks before I actually get worried. Who knows maybe they will get the call Monday.

Someone at Tesla might be reading this going, "OH CRAP! I forgot to call them!" :-)

pvenkate | August 17, 2012

JB typically writes his blogs late Monday for a Tuesday publish. Waiting with bated breath for the official run-rate.

Looks like RED is popular :-)

Michael S | August 19, 2012

Sorry to hear that even S64 hasn't gotten the call yet. If you hold stock as I do, might want to unload it before September 30th comes and goes. I will be doing so if I don't get a call next week. I personally think the whole "early production release" in June was publicity stunt. I would have preferred a more honest roll-out. I mean, who really cares that 10 people got their cars when 12,000 people are still waiting (or are they??). Keep in mind that was almost 60 days ago. Once you start fudging the numbers all the numbers projected come into question.

Michael S | August 19, 2012

Maybe another 30 people have their cars now (if the weekly totals can be believed). So S64 should have gotten the call by now. Their max production will be 250 a week when they are up to full capacity (2013). Even at 50 a week they will fail to hit their reduced goal (They are running out of time to hit 500 by 9/30/12).

Hey S64, let us know if you get a call this week. I will post on Friday (August 24th) one way or the other, as well.

Brian H | August 19, 2012

No backup anywhere yet for the "We're ramping up the volume" claim. Could mean 1 more per week per week, or 10, or 50, or ...

Superliner | August 19, 2012

@ Michael S. + 1

Electric Machete | August 19, 2012

Michael S, have you tried to contact Tesla about the delay yet? If so, did they give you any useful information regarding the delay? You must be very frustrated.

JoeFee | August 20, 2012

The silence is deafening …. unless we get a production numbers blog update and/or regular Sig. delivery date postings in the 100’s we have to assume they are falling behind. I think the early delivery was not a deliberate “stunt” but unforeseen bottlenecks may have occurred. It is a miracle they have come so far so fast. Elon is at his best when things go bad so I have no doubt he will get past this and deliver the car we have all been waiting for … only with a little more waiting :(

Epley | August 20, 2012

S 64 hasn't been contacted, but remember S 64 comes 250 cars behind SS 1. The Founder's series is first (39 of those?), then the special sigs (approx 250), then the regular sigs (1100 or so). So my regular sig 564 is actually car number 39+250+564 = 853.

The wait is painful, like Christmas as a kid. But I'd rather have a perfect car.

Epley | August 20, 2012

Also, how does one go about checking the MVPA? Isn't it set on the paperwork?

Mark K | August 20, 2012

Nothing scary to me here.

You can think of the first handful of deliveries as a QA run.

Every little detail (not only how it all works, but also how it looks and feels to the touch) ... If you really care about making a great product experience, you have to obsess over these details and take the time to get it right.

It is much wiser to hold back the production rate and resolve these detail issues at the tooling and process level, rather than brute-forcing corrections on the line.

In essence, if you take the time to understand why things deviate from goal and revise the process itself, once revised, it slips together smoothly and requires very little QA struggle for a consistently good result.

And at that point, it really is like throwing a switch. You can produce a large number very quickly because you've really nailed the process. 250 a week is a modest number once the process is tuned.

This is the right strategy for TM to focus its intellectual energy - not on triage for problems from rushing it out.

If that means some brief lags in fall deliveries, so be it. For both buyers and stockholders, this is clearly the wisest path.

For cashflow reasons TM is already incentivized to move expeditiously, so browbeating them will not accelerate anything. Once you see they've flipped the switch, you won't have to wait long at all.

Summary: Don't watch the pot and get frustrated. Once it starts to boil, dinner is served quickly.

When you've got THE killer product, you don't risk blowing it on details. TM's very wise to have their priorities straight. Their decision-making screams A-team intelligence and values.

That said, like all the rest of us, well yes, I too want the thing yesterday. Try staying off the forum cold turkey for two weeks. It was good therapy for me.

DeDe | August 20, 2012

@Mark K...++++1....though don't think I could give up forum for 2 weeks...that is my therapy! :)

JoeFee | August 20, 2012

@Mark K | MAY 1, 2012

I share most of your sentiments except the investor point…

I think another production slip will have a 10-15% short term impact on the stock until the ramp is back on target (about 2-3 months????).

Tesla229 | August 20, 2012

@Mark K

BRAVO! As an engineer in a previous professional life, I couldn't agree more! Everybody just needs to chill and let the "A" Team at TM do their job. Everybody will be rewarded in the end...

davecolene0606 | August 20, 2012

Hey, if we get another dip cause wall street doesn't have a time horizon past next week, all it does is present another buy opportunity... And you get "the best" car in the world, not just a good one.

Also, kudos to those taken the early ones and passin back feedback to TM. Also an excellent strategy from an early QA point, limited audience that is passionate, educated on the product and in small enough numbers to be able to communicate with in a meaningful way.

Don't know if I could not look at the forum for 2 weeks though :) !

Brian.C | August 20, 2012

So I just reserved yesterday . . . yes I know a bit late in the game.

I am hoping to get this car by May next year. You guys think this is a realistic timeline?

benjamin.brooks | August 20, 2012

@Brian.C - given the current factory production rates, I'd say that's very optimistic...

jerry3 | August 20, 2012

Mark K -- Try staying off the forum cold turkey for two weeks. It was good therapy for me.

Woah! Twooo weeks? (Reference: Earth Girls Are Easy).

jbunn | August 20, 2012

Hey BrianC. Congratulations. By next May, they will be pumping out almost 1,700 cars per month. So if not May, then it certainly could not be far behind. I guess the best rule of thumb you could use is perhaps the first 5000 GP numbers cleared by the end of January. Then if we take 20K/annum as an assumption, 1,670 cars per month after that. There will be a slight number more reservation numbers used than cars delivered, as some folks my reserve then cancel later. But that calculation might be a decent guess.

skystream3.7 | August 20, 2012

I would say August 2013 would sound about right, for you to get your car.

Brian.C | August 20, 2012

Alright; thanks for your input and thoughts!

Michael S | August 20, 2012

UPDATE: Founder's cars aparently all delivered. S-001 confirmed delivered 8/11/12. Review for it on another thread.

Brian H | August 20, 2012

@MarkK;
Good analysis.

Another way to look at it: considering the comparatively tiny weekly volumes scheduled for July/Aug. anyway, picking up any slack there later amounts to a couple of days full bore production.

VPLACE | August 20, 2012

My Sig Reg is #494, & I'm anticipating late Sept 2012 delivery, but have not yet received my 30 notice.
Anyone know what the latest reg# delivered was, and what the delivery day was??
A mark on the wall would be a reasonable progress forecaster.
Ya, I know the production rate is increasing as we go!
What are your forecast delivery date thoughts & assumptions for my delivery??

Volker.Berlin | August 20, 2012

Mark K +1, thank you very much! I felt the urge to add something with a very similar intent to this thread, but I couldn't put it in words well enough. Your post really nailed it for me.

Volker.Berlin | August 21, 2012

This has to be avoided by all means.

BYT | August 21, 2012

I don't see what happened to Karma happening to TM. So much fewer moving parts, no ICE compacted tighter then a size 10 foot in a size 8 shoe and just too many parts that move and heat up and and and...

Fire hazard isn't a concern for TM I don't believe, but I also believe they need to hit it out of the park with the Model S, or the would otherwise most certainly stand for sayounara* for Tesla Motors.

* Please pardon my poor phonetic spelling of the Japanese language.

BYT | August 21, 2012

EDIT: ... or the "S" would otherwise...

Volker.Berlin | August 21, 2012

BYT, I admit that my post was a bit choppy. I wasn't so much referring to the fire event, my emphasis is on the "Recall" part.

jbunn | August 21, 2012

Yes, avoided by all means.

Considering the limited number on the road, two burned is not a good stat. I think its a fundamentaly flawed design which makes dealing with these issues challenging for their team.

Stgwbrown | August 21, 2012

Put my reservation in two weeks ago and after reading all the positive press about the S, I am even more stoked on getting the car. Even bought the stock! I am thinking next May for a delivery. Hopefully will have two great results (car and stock) to look forward to.

BYT | August 21, 2012

@Stgwbrown@aol.com, welcome to the Tesla extended family then... ;)

JoeFee | August 21, 2012

"VPLACE | AUGUST 20, 2012
My Sig Reg is #494, & I'm anticipating late Sept 2012 delivery, but have not yet received my 30 notice.
Anyone know what the latest reg# delivered was, and what the delivery day was??
A mark on the wall would be a reasonable progress forecaster.
Ya, I know the production rate is increasing as we go!
What are your forecast delivery date thoughts & assumptions for my delivery??”

See: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Update

Soflauthor | August 21, 2012

@Vplace wrote: My Sig Reg is #494, & I'm anticipating late Sept 2012 delivery, but have not yet received my 30 notice.
Anyone know what the latest reg# delivered was, and what the delivery day was??
A mark on the wall would be a reasonable progress forecaster.
Ya, I know the production rate is increasing as we go!
What are your forecast delivery date thoughts & assumptions for my delivery??

I'm just a bit ahead of you at Sig #422, and my best case scenario for delivery is Mid-October, more likely, late October. Many here and at TMC are hoping for an extremely rapid increase in the current production rate (after quality, supplier, etc. issues are reconciled), but I believe that's wishful thinking, although I hope I'm wrong.

The kind of ramp-up required to meet a September delivery for us (#s in the 400s) would likely affect quality (and as a owner and stockholder, I don't want that). In fact, it's possible that the bottleneck might not be fit and finish, but OEM suppliers (and the quality/availability of their parts) as well as internal logistics and TM's ability to roll-out and deliver hundreds of cars every week.

It's very hard to be patient, but I think you and I have at least another 7 - 10 weeks before we get our cars.

kent | August 21, 2012

I talked to my Tesla rep last night. I'm Sig #121 and his comment was that we were on track for late September or 1st two weeks of October.

BYT | August 21, 2012

Thanks for the update Kent! Wow, so if I'm Sig #1,186, I can expect mine late November or early December at the earliest with those estimations? I know they will ramp up hard, but not that hard based on them being focused on QA? I don't mind waiting longer, I just don't want delivery to lapse to 2013.

JoeFee | August 21, 2012

My rep says S1092 still on for Oct (no date yet)!

Peter7 | August 21, 2012

I'm not sure why everyone keeps being surprised by these dates and using them to predict late deliveries of Sigs into December. To produce 500 cars this quarter as they keep stateing means that they will make (or have made) about:

50 demo/dealer cars
41 founders
244 special sigs
160 sigs

So, that means that Kent as Sig 121 should expect his late September, to a few weeks into October...
Which, is exactly why he was told it is "on track".

Peter

michiganmodels | August 21, 2012

@Peter7 -

Slight correction. The 500 would be sales.

So, it would be as follows:
41 Founders
244 Special Signatures
215 Signatures

JoeFee | August 21, 2012

"threebaers | AUGUST 21, 2012
I just got my "Time to Build your Model S" email and I am P3928.”

Looks like most of the orders are in for 5K cars in 2012.

Sudre_ | August 21, 2012

I can see 2014's, "The Electric Car Strikes Back" movie showing a thousand Sigs parked on the factory floor in late August all finished and waiting on sun visors with Elon pulling out what's left of his hair telling people to get the problems worked out and get them out the door no matter what.... ok maybe mid-October.

kent | August 21, 2012

I like MichiganModels analysis. Thank you for all the details. I'll post as soon as I get the call from Tesla.

Doogue | August 21, 2012

(Posted on another read as well)

I'm #3995.

Just got my "It's Time to Build Your Model S" email. I'm #3995.

Based on all the chatter on this site on production pace, I'm a bit nervous that Tesla is just moving up the "finalize your order" email, but not stepping up production at relative rate. That would be a tad consumer unfriendly.

I could have sworn the previous time from "build yours" email to delivery expectation was 2 months; it now appears closer to 4-5 months (forum members quote a Dec/Jan delivery date after having finalized orders in the last wek). That feels a bit as though Tesla is driving people to commit now, without more confidence on delivery.... perhaps doing so to ensure that people don't cancel?

I hope not. Thoughts anyone?

stephen.kamichik | August 21, 2012

Tesla probably needs the cash flow for production.

EdG | August 21, 2012

"The market" knows Tesla Motors will be making its first big payment on the big loan before the end of the year. If they don't book a bunch of sales, they won't have the cash on hand to pay the loan, and, at least according to one report, they'd have to issue some stock to make the payment.

I guess that's why the stock price isn't floating above 40.

If all this is true, when the next, say, 200 cars are delivered in a short time indicating the 5000 by year end is reality, the stock price should jump.

Peter7 | August 21, 2012

Michiganmodels,

IIRC Elon stated production of 500 cars durring the Q2 invester call, not sales or deliveries. Was there other guidance from Tesla that I missed?

Thanks,

Peter

electricblue0303 | August 21, 2012

EdG - the cars don't turn into cash for Tesla until delivery of the vehicles. I've filled out the order contract and I don't need to pay another penny until the day my car gets delivered (or something very close to that). So, to turn the build orders into cash, Tesla has to deliver, which is what we all want. I'm confident that they will either hit 5,000 deliveries this year or will come pretty close.

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