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Current Production Run Rate

Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

Crow | August 23, 2012

@Butch, I'm free on the 28th.

TikiMan | August 23, 2012

Michael,

No doubt! Home remodeling contractors are likely the worst at delivery dates! My remodeled kitchen was well over 12 months late. It's one thing waiting on a new car, while you are stuck driving your older one. On the flip side, try not having a kitchen for almost a YEAR, when you were told six months!

I agree it sucks commuting in my old car, after turning in my luxury lease six months ago, however, I was willing to wait for the Model S! If it were anything else, I would have already given in, and bought a different car.

My MVPA for my Performance Sig #1160 says Oct, 2012. i signed my contract back in late June. I was P#2763 originally.

davidcjones | August 23, 2012

As I noted before, we are "Special Sig" #64 (I have Roadster #1305), so we were contacted quite a while ago to turn in our final order. I am very surprised, given the recent blog posting, that we haven't heard anything more definitive lately and my Tesla page says my car is being constructed, which is what the message changed to shortly after I finalized the order. I did not get a Performance SIg (hard to justify the extra when I already have a Roadster), so perhaps the Performance Special Sigs are being done before the regular Special sigs.

cerjor | August 23, 2012

I am P2868 and was told December/January. I ordered the 60 kwhr version. I wonder what the estimated delivery date would have been if I had chosen 85 kwhr battery. Does anyone have approximately the same reservation number and ordered the bigger battery?

TJK | August 23, 2012

cerjor, I ordered the 85kWh battery and my estimated delivery is Nov/Dec... P3703

Petrokalis | August 23, 2012

cerjor:
I'm P2420 and ordered the 85 kWh battery. I also have a Dec/Jan delivery estimate on my MVPA.

Schlermie | August 23, 2012

Petro,
Did you get the air suspension?

Petrokalis | August 23, 2012

Schlermie:
Yes, I did get the air suspension.

Green metallic paint
85 kWh battery
Pano roof
Tech package
Air suspension
Sound studio
19" wheels
Tan leather
Lacewood
Twin chargers
Parcel shelf

No performance package
No rear seats
No paint armor

jackhub | August 24, 2012

I'm P2884: 85Kwh and air suspension with Dec/Jan.

RobertMontreal | August 24, 2012

Something doesn't add up here.

Petro is P2420 with the 85kWh and has estimate of Dec/Jan
TJK is P3703 with the 85kWh and has estimate of Nov/Dec

Does anyone else find this a bit strange?

TJK | August 24, 2012

FWIW, I ordered the Performance model...

JohnFloyd | August 24, 2012

P2630 here, ordered Performance 85kWh, delivery date of Dec/Jan. Also got pano, tech, sound studio, in Grey.

ddruz | August 24, 2012

Has anyone configured a 40kwh? How about standard suspension?

Longhorn92 | August 24, 2012

RobInMtl, the batch last week all seemed to get Dec/Jan estimates, and the batch this week seemed to be mostly in the Nov/Dec range. They also released an additional batch of "Time to Build" e-mails yesterday: Canadian Signatures as well as additional U.S. Production. My take is this: over the past week, they have firmed things up and become much more comfortable with their production schedule, so they are now able to (i) give earlier delivery estimates and (ii) release more "Time to Build" e-mails. In any case, I am convinced that they will keep everyone in their proper place in line (i.e. this week's batch won't get their cars before last week's batch, except in the case of known delay options).

mbcaffe | August 24, 2012

P3446. I finalized paperwork earlier on tuesday immediately after receiving e-mail. mine was nov/dec delivery. I am sceptical too.
60kwh
blue with grey leather
active suspension

if the delivery for my configuration is accurate, my only guess is that i am low in the queue for 60kwh and that there is a high number of orders for the 85 kwh. I know it does not make sense

mbergman | August 24, 2012

ddruz, I am p2748 and configured my S with a 40kwh battery - haven't signed the paperwork yet, but my mvpa states a dec/jan delivery.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney | August 24, 2012

"RobInMtl | August 24, 2012

Something doesn't add up here.

Petro is P2420 with the 85kWh and has estimate of Dec/Jan
TJK is P3703 with the 85kWh and has estimate of Nov/Dec

Does anyone else find this a bit strange?"

Not on a single production line. It would only be strange if _everything_ were identical on the cars and they were reversed.

On a single production line I'd expect items with similar attributes to be grouped to maximize production rate. Everything that requires a change on the line slows down production. E.g. if they have to stop to clean machinery between colors they'd group cars with the same color together.

ddruz | August 24, 2012

mbergman, are you getting the air suspension?

mbergman | August 24, 2012

Ddruz - yes.

Michael23 | August 24, 2012

Grey leather and 60 battery delay maybe?

Epley | August 24, 2012

Just for perspective, Tesla has produced 100 cars to date (according to George's blog). 2 per day. Annualized that's 730 cars per year--a much higher rate than Tesla has ever done. It's all new equipment, new production line, never been done before. I'd say they are doing a pretty good job overall. I DO want my car soon, but I'd rather have it "perfect" than soon. It will be very interesting to see how they ramp up, but I think obsessing over the delivery estimate is making people crazy. Your car will come, be patient and let them do it right!

Brian H | August 24, 2012

BYT;
Jealous congratulations lack a certain sincerity ...

>;-/

Tesla229 | August 24, 2012

@epley,

AMEN to that! Everybody just needs to CHILL!

Captain_Zap | August 24, 2012

It would be much easier to have patience if it were not for my current car having fits of jealousy. In the past 2 months I have had to replace 2 fuel pressure regulators, fuel lines and a cracked radiator and coolant hoses. The car has been in the shop more than it has been out while waiting for parts from Germany.

I am very much looking forward to not having any more of these expensive and very inconvenient issues!

Slindell | August 24, 2012

Every time I fill up my current car with gas I wonder, "How many more times will I have to this?" I'm Sig353, so I think I'm now below 20-more-gas-fill-ups.

KevinR.co.us | August 24, 2012

My car is currently telling me "oil maintenance required soon". Hoping this is my last reminder of this sort.

Teoatawki | August 24, 2012

@Captain_Zap -

Sounds more like a British car than a Teutonic one!

Sudre_ | August 24, 2012

When I see the res numbers after mine getting earlier dates I assume it is because things are starting to move better on the line and I will get my car sooner than Dec/Jan. (3270, 60kw, grey lthr)
I do not expect them to call me every time the date changes. It'd be really nice to have updates in my Tesla virtual garage but I am sure there would be far too much..... unhappiness on the forum every time the date moved the wrong direction.

ddruz | August 24, 2012

Sudre_, are you getting the air suspension?

Sudre_ | August 24, 2012

Yes I am getting the air suspension.

Captain_Zap | August 24, 2012

@Teoatawki

You bring back some memories.

My British car made my garage floor look like a cross between a Rorschach test and modern art that was composed of much wider variety of fluid colors.

Vawlkus | August 25, 2012

That 60 KWH is probably what's delaying you Sudre. Tesla did say the 85's would be first, then the 60's.

Brian H | August 25, 2012

Is non-air suspension actually accepted in the configurations/confirmations yet? AFAIK, non-air is up in the air, suspended. As it were. ;)

Sudre_ | August 25, 2012

Vawlkus,
There is NO delay. The delivery date will change as the conditions on the line change. Tesla will not give you a phone call when that happens unless it is to deliver the car. If you want a daily, weekly or monthly update you will have to call them.

In this topic one page back,
"I'm P2420 and ordered the 85 kWh battery. I also have a Dec/Jan delivery estimate on my MVPA"
"I'm P2884: 85Kwh and air suspension with Dec/Jan."
"P2630 here, ordered Performance 85kWh, delivery date of Dec/Jan. Also got pano, tech, sound studio, in Grey."

The below is my exact spec from someone else,
"P3446. I finalized paperwork earlier on tuesday immediately after receiving e-mail. mine was nov/dec delivery. I am sceptical too. 60kwh blue with grey leather active suspension"

ddruz | August 25, 2012

Brian H,
Standard suspension is indeed accepted in the confirmations. I confirmed with it and am slated for an estimated "Early 2013" delivery. I have not seen anyone else post that they have ordered the standard suspension but would be curious if anyone else has.

Electric Machete | August 25, 2012

I'm P#3820 and once I am in the configure confirmation section I am getting a Nov/Dec delivery date. I suspect that the last batch of emails to configure are all showing an earlier date than last week's batch. For the record I have not confirmed or signed my paperwork yet.

Performance. 85kwh. Black paint. Black leather. Pano roof. Carbon fiber. Tech. Sound. 21". Paint armor. Air suspension. Not getting dual chargers. Delivery in Florida.

Is there anyone who got an email last week who is configuring this week?

I'm just wondering if certain options are holding up certain cars or if the whole schedule has jumped a month forward since last week.

Michael S | August 27, 2012

TO: davidcjones (SIG 64) After several calls and a visit to the Newport Beach Store, I (SIG 99) finally got someone at corporate to pin down (kind of) a delivery date (orig. Aug 15th) to a range from Sept. 8th to Sept. 23rd. So let's say Sept. 15th. So looks good so far. However, no way they hit 500 by the 30th.

To ALL: And YES, they are behind, by about 500 cars to date. On a personal level its not so bad, but $$$$$ says that if they can't get through the Sig's before Christmas, they will be broke before new New Years. They are bleeding $30,000,000 a month with just a little more than that in cash on hand. They WILL need to either take on more debt or issue more stock.

gmcnabb | August 27, 2012

Hi All--

Reservation #4,336 and got my email today to build and confirm car. Performance and a delivery date of Nov/Dec this year.

kent | August 27, 2012

To: Michael S:

If Sig 99 is produced on the 15th that will be car number 384.

My math is

Founders 41
Special Sig 244
Signatures 99
=================
Total 384

I'm Sig. #121 and quoted end of September or first two weeks of October. They would miss by 116 cars. My calculation does not show 500 cars behind. This week will be very interesting as Special Sig #40 gets delivery tomorrow. Tracking deliveries of those Special Sigs should give us a true production rate. A few cars should not impact Tesla's cash flow and will only move some revenue to 4th quarter.

In addition, this does not count any vehicles made after the 15th when yours is built that could still be delivered 3rd quarter.

This all assumes that your are not a Special Sig #99 which then would put Tesla behind about 360 cars. My rep has continued to specify end of September to first couple of weeks in October for delivery. I'm in Ohio, so that will add an extra 4-5 days to ship across country.

J King | August 27, 2012

Please excuse my Ignorance, but what is a special Sig? I did not realize that there were two Sig lists.

HaroldS | August 27, 2012

@Michael S

Are you sure about that $30 million a month negative? As a "forward looking statement" (as the disclosure releases always say) that seems like a lot, with revenue beginning to come in now from every delivery. It doesn't seem reasonable that they would be running that magnitude of negative cash flow in, for example, October, unless they shut the line down.

Do you have a source for the $30M/month?

bobo | August 27, 2012

I am reservation #4384 and just got email today to configure my car, with estimated delivery date of Nov/Dec 2012.

However, when I go to the website that has already my configured car, I see there
Estimated Delivery
EARLY 2013
(orders completed by 9/22/2012)

This is my config:
Blue Metallic Paint
Body Color Roof
19" Wheels
Tan Leather Interior
Obeche Wood Matte Décor
85 kWh Battery
Standard Suspension
Supercharge Hardware

bobo | August 27, 2012

I was just playing a bit with the options, and when I added
Active Air Suspension
to my config, then the delivery date changed to:
Estimated Delivery
NOV, 2012 - DEC, 2012
(orders completed by 9/22/2012)

I believe this option is required for cars delivered in 2012, so they just prioritize that option before cars w/o that option.

davidcjones | August 27, 2012

I just spoke to my Tesla rep today. He told me that conservatively, I should see my car delivered in early October--but that was a conservative estimate and it might arrive in later September. They are clearly a little behind but I will take slow quality over fast shabby any day.

Special Sig 64

Volker.Berlin | August 28, 2012

This has to be avoided by all means. (myself, above)

One more reason to ramp up slowly and carefully.

Rumbles | August 28, 2012

@davidcjones

Wow. That is depressing news. That would imply that they are going to miss their 500 by end of Q3 by a wide margin. It also implies that they will not increasing their production rate from 2 cars / day for weeks to come. Clearly they are struggling to ramp. Are you sure he realized you were Special Sig and not Sig?

DrJ | August 28, 2012

I am REGULAR Sig #371, and have been quoted multiple times and recently that my "two month window" (a term they love to use, hear it every time) is Sept/Oct.

HaroldS | August 28, 2012

@DrJ

I'm one behind you, at regular S#372, and the latest estimate I have from Tesla is early to mid October. Based on some of the posts by Special Sig holders, however, it seems unlikely.

jd3tm | August 28, 2012

I just got off the phone with my Product Specialist - I called to remove the paint armour from my Pearl White Perf Sig and picked up a few more tidbits about production status:

1. I am Sig 692 and Arielle said I should expect mid-october delivery. My MVPA said September originally. There has been a slip for most of the early (Special Sig and Sig) deliveries.

2. Special Sigs ARE ABSOLUTELY different than Sigs. ie. - There is a Special Sig #50 AND a Sig #50...to be a special Sig you must be a roadster owner who then also ordered a Model S Sig. I have seen this difference challenged a number of times so I had to ask.

3. There are "a couple hundred" Special Sigs (that matches well to the 249 I've seen elsewhere identified as the total Special Sig count).

4. All Special Sigs are either completely built out or almost. Delivery may be spread out based on delivery location, etc. but they are all built and in final prep for delivery!

5. SIGNATURE customers can NO LONGER MAKE CHANGES TO THEIR ORDER! My requested change to remove the Paint Armour is able to be honored because it is a "post assembly" process. But, if I wanted to change body paint color at this time, I could NOT!

6. They still believe they will build (but perhaps not have delivered) 5000 Model S's by end of calendar 2012.

7. After purchase items like extra wheels, etc. will be available from the Service Centers at the time you purchase or receive your vehicle. For those who might want a set of 19" rims in addition to the 21" you might be getting with your car.

She emphasized that Tesla management still is on track to build 5000 cars this (calendar) year! They will ramp volume quickly once they believe they have the manufacturing quality and vehicle spec solid. Separately, I heard from the Sales Manager at the Santana Row Showroom that this is the last week Elon will evaluate every car in the line. He is ready to start spot checking and cranking up the volume production ramp!

I'm sad that i won't get my Model S for my B'day but it looks like I will have it for Halloween!!!! Hmmmm...a delivery party and a Halloween Party in one. Sounds Scary!!!!

;-)

cheers

pbrulott | August 28, 2012

Anybody heard about today's delivery??? I remember reading here SS40 or something like that having his Model S delivered on the 28th

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