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Current Production Run Rate

Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

bfranks273 | August 28, 2012

So I see SS 64 is told late Sept or Oct, today SS 40 and 32 took delivery, and all SSigs are built or nearly. I am SS 126 and eagerly await this slight inconsistency working itself out, to the left if possible. Thanks everyone.

davidcjones | August 28, 2012

Rumbles—yes he recognized I was a special sig. He commented that there was a slow-down due to some problem with suppliers' parts not being up to snuff (he basically blamed the hold-ups on suppliers, and Tesla's unhappiness with their products). So hopefully that will be cleared up and things will be running at full speed soon!

ggr | August 28, 2012

Correction: SS32 (us) didn't take delivery today, and I don't think SS40 (butch) did either. Tesla is keeping us advised but we still don't have a firm date yet. While obviously we are disappointed, the care and professionalism is impressing us... still Tesla lovers. For a few more weeks anyway ;-)

kayalir | August 28, 2012

Ya it has to do with a problem with the door handles. TM said it will be 3 weeks to a month delay.

Michael S | August 29, 2012
SMOP | August 29, 2012

this is so annoying, sig owners paid 40k basically to get their cars earlier...after this delay it will mean that sig cars will not have a significant time advantage over P cars. Furthermore I am curious to see what else Tesla deletes off the Sig/Performances. It is concerning (at this point) that Tesla is having problems with chrome plating and finish process' that should be well sorted at this point during the production timeline. Hopefully there are 300 cars (and growing) that have been produced waiting for door handles. Heck paint my door handles black and get me the car. I hate chrome anyway, the quicker it peels off and I can anodize all the chrome bits the better.

Michael S | August 29, 2012

See, there's the shell game:

SS 64 is told late September to early October.
SS 99 (me) is told between Sept. 8th and Sept. 23rd.
SS 32 didn't get theirs when they were supposed to (and still haven't?)

Unless I get mine out of order because I've been a pain in the ass, this does not add up.

Maybe they think we aren't paying attention?

I would love to hear from someone (anyone) who has actually received their car and when they got it.

stevenmaifert | August 29, 2012

@Michael S - Thanks for the post. Not the sort of thing we like to hear, but I think it's an honest assessment from someone who has no skin in the game. I just hope TM has enough reserve capital to weather the ramp-up delays.

AndrewB | August 29, 2012

I am SS 29 and don't have my car yet, was promised yesterday 8/28, but has been delayed

jrabena | August 29, 2012

@AndrewB - did they give you a reason or a new projected delivery date? thanks.

ThomasN | August 29, 2012

@michael S
That article is a rerun from John Peterson, the most prolific anti-tesla person in the media. Did he cite his sources.... Go to seeking alpha and you will find that every article he has written has a single goal.

KevinR.co.us | August 29, 2012

@ThomasN +1
Peterson is SOS DD for as long as I've followed TSLA

Butch | August 29, 2012

Consistent with GRR SS#32, I am SS#40, expected delivery on 8/28, but issues with Tesla suppliers has delayed me getting my car. I am waiting for a new delivery date. Will let you know when I hear more.

Sudre_ | August 30, 2012

Maybe Elon should hand out the CEO's phone number for the company that is delaying our cars so we can call and explain our grief.

"Sorry your car has been delayed because of BOB. Here is Bob's phone number......"

Michael S | August 30, 2012

SSL#30 delivered today.

JoeFee | September 2, 2012

SSL 114

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Update

We should see the "ramp up" to regular sig’s very soon!

Butch | September 3, 2012

I'm SSL#40, VIN#37 and got the good news that my car is ready in Fremont as of yesterday. Now I will have to see how long it takes for transport to and prep in Denver before I take delivery in Colorado! I am getting the paint armor and I believe that is being applied in Denver, adding at least a day to the schedule. After 3.5 years, what's a few days, but...

ddruz | September 3, 2012

Butch--Congratulations!!! Very exciting news.

jbunn | September 3, 2012

Drove by Fremont last tuesday, abour 6 pm. Lots of workers cars in the parking lot. Allways a good sign. Someday I hope to drive by and see the freeway jammed with semi after semi hauling shiny cars to their new owners.

EdG | September 3, 2012

I'd prefer they use their rail links and be sending hundreds of cars out the back door.

adurstewitz | September 5, 2012

Bump. Anyone hear anything new about deliveries? Is production moving again?

JoeFee | September 5, 2012

@adurstewitz@gma... | SEPTEMBER 5, 2012

We have reports up to SSL #114. You can track deliveries here:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Upda...

cmlaff | September 5, 2012

Word from Tesla today is that Sig#1013 on tap for delivery end October/early November.

The antici……………………………...pation builds!

(With a nod to Dr. Frank-N-Furter.)

Soflauthor | September 5, 2012

This is slightly OT but relevant to this thread.

If TM management comes to the conclusion (not saying they will, just a hypothetical) that the announced production goal of 5,000 vehicles in 2012 is not achievable, would they be required to disclose this "non-public information" to investors under SEC rules for a public company?

Stating the question in another way, does TM's silence on the matter indicate that it remains confident of not violating any SEC disclosure requirements and meeting its projected production goal?

bfranks273 | September 5, 2012

Isnt that covered by the ... Forward looking statements... thing? I am sure they are well lawyered. I am still betting that Elon makes 5000 because he said so. Maybe even the 500.

Captain_Zap | September 5, 2012

@cmlaff

Is this the Time Warp?

adurstewitz | September 5, 2012

It's just a jump to the left...but I digress.

So, how bout that production rate! Any ideas when the "ramp" up will occur?

Vawlkus | September 6, 2012

Tesla Motors never gave production goals or quotas, Elon said that the 500 / 5000 targets were what they were shooting for.

At least that's what I believe.

Volker.Berlin | September 6, 2012

Vawlkus, yes, in the last investors call Elon was explicit that 20k units in 2013 are a hard number, but the 5k units in 2012 are not. The 5k/2012 are more like a personal or internal target that he happened to share, while the 20k/2013 are a commitment.

Here's why it takes so long... (as if we didn't know already)
http://green.autoblog.com/2012/09/05/elon-musk-building-tesla-model-s-ro...

Ohms.Law | September 6, 2012

+1 VB: Good article. Thanks for finding and sharing it.

JoeFee | September 6, 2012

I agree, the company does not have a “material event” on missing the "soft goal” for 500/5000 this year …. but they will have a stock price issue …. down in the $26 range!

Epley | September 6, 2012

MandL posted that S802 is in the Body in White stage. They clearly are making progress on some level.

hoffman03 | September 6, 2012

"MandL posted that S802 is in the Body in White stage. They clearly are making progress on some level."

@epley: Where is this post? Thanks!

brewdr | September 6, 2012

I may have missed this, but what is the sequence of status reports in the My Garage section of the website?

Mine says "The Tesla factory is building your Model S performance"

I'm number 2667.

Thanks

Epley | September 6, 2012

@hoffman03:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/cant-change-wheel-choice-once-yo...

The post was on a different topic, but it was an interesting tidbit. Also interesting that P2667 is in "build" mode on the website.

My Garage has said this for the past 2 months. Still haven't been given my 30-day notice yet...

gimp_dad | September 6, 2012

@brewer as far as I know the note you have in you "My garage" is the last note. Mine still says that same thing over a month after delivery.

From here your contacts should be from delivery specialists via email and/or phone. First approximate date within a week, then a day or two (or three) before delivery that it's built and finalizing prep, wanting to verify date and time they can deliver.

hoffman03 | September 6, 2012

@epley:

Wow, sig802 already in production? that's very surprising, in a good way! Unless, maybe they are delivering way out of order to be able to batch production...

brewdr | September 6, 2012

I guess I was talking about the reference to the "Body in White" stage. I figured the status in the My Garage would change as the car traveled through the production line. What is the "body in white" stage and how do we get that kind of update. Understanding I am still several months from this point.

Epley | September 6, 2012

That's what I thought, too!

Andrew18 | September 6, 2012

I'm sig 587 and mine still says " building you S " only

TINO F | September 6, 2012

Sources say that 50 cars a day starts, and soon to be 60-70. Employees appear to be the shortfall. Not nearly enough employee vehicles in the plant parking lot. They just might hit the 5000 number this year.

hoffman03 | September 6, 2012

TINO F: Thanks for the info. Can you expand on the "sources"?

TINO F | September 6, 2012

Not totally since it is from an inside track, but I will say they are looking to add 175 employment positions asap in Palo Alto alone.

jbunn | September 6, 2012

Palo Alto is the design center, no? Ramping for phase III, or the X perhaps?

FYI - I'm I'm 4100 something or other, and in build status in My Garage. Nov/Dec delivery status.

We talked a bit earlier about production delays related to things like door handles. My guess is they are still running the rest of the factory, and using the 90% of the factory that is unused to store components and sections. Perhaps it's just my imagination, but I like to believe there is a building somewhere with hundreds of body shells just waiting for the paint line. And in the other corner a stack of motors, PMUs, and racks of bumpers in another building ready to go. I'm guessing there is not one "line" from start to finish, but a number of production processes that can run independently, producing sub assemblies independent of each other. Given that, when a block here and there resolves, the line should move fast (until the next block... ; ) )

Or so I would like to believe.

Scorch | September 6, 2012

Where do you guys see delivery status? I have only ever heard Nov/Dec from my rep on the phone.

jbunn | September 6, 2012

Prior to completion, it's in your garage. When you order, it's in your paperwork.

stevenmaifert | September 6, 2012

A quote from the Facts page...

"Production - 20,000 units will be produced per year. 5,000 units will be produced in 2012."

Looks like a pretty definitive statement to me. The words "goal" or "target" are nowhere to be found. Maybe it's one of those "accuracy of the moment" statements, but it's been there almost forever.

Volker.Berlin | September 7, 2012

stevenmaifert, that's marketing information. If you want reliable information, look in the investors documents (letter to shareholders, Q&A conference calls), not in the marketing material.

William Jones | September 7, 2012

@jbunn ...

... whether you are 4100 or 4199 (and I guess you just didn't want to give specifics - as most of us here know our production number by heart), I am P188 and my MVPA states Nov/Dec as well. So that tells me that much of the shrouded secrecy is simply to protect their stock value (as has been said here) and to not handcuff themselves if, for example, one or two of their major suppliers - batteries, touch screens - decides to balk on delivery.

As for having several shells sitting around, maybe .. maybe not. I still think it is valid to say that we are all going to be delayed a bit: a small window of time to pay when many of us have been waiting just shy of 3 1/2 years.

WJ

DanielR | September 7, 2012

This was the update I received today from a Tesla Ownership Advocate:
"We are still focused on producing 5,000 cars this year, however, the ramp up in the next few months will be slow as we align with our suppliers and refine our production process to full production by the end of the year. This makes it difficult to give an accurate timeframe for delivery..."
I am P-482 and they are telling me late November to early January.

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