Estimate when 200,000 cars will be sold?

Estimate when 200,000 cars will be sold?

In other words, when will we lose the federal tax credit?

MarylandS85 | August 4, 2017

Most likely scenario is:
$7,500 credit for Teslas delivered to owners by June 30, 2018
$3,750 credit for Teslas delivered to owners from July 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018
$1,750 credit for Teslas delivered to owners from January 1, 2019 to June 30, 2019 | August 4, 2017

ditto for what it's worth

Shock | August 4, 2017

Looks like odds are pretty good they won't hit US 200k total until Q1 next year. That's my hope.Then I still have a slim chance in heck I will get the $7500, but it means the $3750 is a lock.

CV63 | August 4, 2017

Is it 200k M3s sold or 200k total cars including MS and MX? | August 4, 2017

Total cars sold in US-all models. If they hit that on Jan. 1 2018, the $7500 credit is history on August 1, 2018 when $3750 kicks in for 6 months, regardless of volume.
Not every car buyer will qualify for the credit because they don't owe enough federal income tax for 2018 but I guess they just count the cars sold and not the credits taken.

Best case for US taxpayers in general is that more and more folks who don't owe a lot of income tax will be buying Teslas

Coastal Cruiser. | August 4, 2017

Friend george, you don't have that quite right. You've got two mistakes in your example. It's easy to forget since it's a bit elaborate. That is why i added some examples to the Model 3 FAQ.

ReD eXiLe ms us | August 4, 2017

GUESSTIMATE -- Tuesday, January 2, 2018 (or perhaps very shortly after) should be the date when Tesla Delivers their 200,000th car since December 31, 2009 in the U.S.

President georgehawley, that would be July 1, 2018 -- one month earlier than August 1, 2018 -- as noted by Coastal_Cruiser. Though you are correct in that the quantity of vehicles is of no consideration beyond the 200,000th unit sold. Once that is done it is all based upon time frame before the Phaseout begins, and the stages of that Phaseout before it ends entirely.

Garyeop | August 4, 2017

I hope you are all correct but I have to ask...based on what? Is there a running total somewhere? Quarterly reports? Someone on a grassy knoll counting transports? And if we don't really know, how would it be announced? A government tax announcement?

bj | August 4, 2017

Given that Tesla's 100% focus for the next 12 months is Model 3 deliveries to USA and no-where else on the planet, I think it's fair to say they are paying close attention to when they will hit the 200k deliveries mark.

ReD eXiLe ms us | August 4, 2017

Garyeop: Primarily, I go by the totals shown on the website GoodCarBadCar-dot-net. Here's how I figure it...

In 2012 through 2016 Tesla sold approximately 111,096 vehicles (Model S & Model X combined) in the U.S. If combined U.S. Sales of Model S and Model X are as much as 55,000 units this year (it was about 47,000 in 2016), and they Deliver 35,000 of the Model 3 too, that would still total only about ~196,096 units. The counter is not based upon when the cars are built, but when they are Delivered. Acquisition by changing of Title.

Tesla Brand Sales Figures | GoodCarBadCar

MNGreene | August 4, 2017 If you click the Phaseout tab, there is a note that IRS will announce when a manufacturer reaches 200,000 sales.

There is even a page that tracks sales by manufacturer, but it did not have Tesla sales:

TaoJones | August 4, 2017

At the earliest, Q3 2018, with the balance of Q3 and Q4 at full tax credit. Starting Q1 2019, that's halved, and decreases from there.

The media hasn't gotten it right yet.

Ideally, day 1 of whichever quarter, since that triggers a full HALF YEAR of production/delivery with full tax credits.

But to read the geniuses at and other shorts, woe is near. Feh. | August 5, 2017

Can't count. July 1 rather than August 1 for one thing.
"How did you do so well in business given your 3rd grade education?" They asked the old man.
"I just followed the 3% rule. Buy something for a dollar and sell it for three dollars" he replied.

Doublelift | August 5, 2017

Just an interesting procedural description...and the reason the credit expires in the following quarter. IRS receives quarterly reports from manufactures on the number of cars sold in the previous quarter. So, Tesla will not actually report the date on which the 200,000th car is sold, rather one of their quarterly reports will bring the total Tesla cars sold in the US over 200,000. This report reaches the IRS after the end of the quarter, and the IRS then invokes the phaseout.

Also, the number is, how many are sold, not how many are manufactured. For Tesla that doesn't make much difference (except for their new inventory and demonstrators).

So it's not like Tesla calls the IRS the morning they've sold the 200,000th car and the IRS says OK, we'll now phase out starting at the next of the next quarter. Rather, they actually receive the report after the quarter when the milestone is met, and thus they actually invoke the phaseout for the quarter they receive the report. That's why it expires the end of the quarter after that important 200,000th sale. That's also why we may not have much warning, unless Tesla announces to the world when they reach that milestone (in advance of the IRS notification).

Once the phaseout begins, the number of cars sold has zero relevance to the rebate. Everyone who takes delivery during the following quarters gets the various rebates. And your rebate eligibility date is when you actually take possession of the car (get the title and "place it in service"), not when you order it, even if you pay in full ahead of time.

So, don't order the last week of one rebate phase, because if you have it delivered the next quarter, your rebate may have halved.

A good source for research nerds is American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, section 1141. Fun to read. Also see IRS form 8936.

p.s. The IRS does not yet list the Model 3 as eligible (, but I'm sure they will before long.

p.p.s. The tax rebate is computed by law based on capacity of the battery. So, Tesla will have to tell the IRS the capacity sometime. We'll be finding out one way or another.

MarylandS85 | August 5, 2017

Correcting bad math from my first post. The 2019 delivery tax credit is a bit higher than my sleep-deprived brain had computed yesterday:

Most likely scenario is:
$7,500 credit for Teslas delivered to owners by June 30, 2018
$3,750 credit for Teslas delivered to owners from July 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018
$1,875 credit for Teslas delivered to owners from January 1, 2019 to June 30, 2019

It seems most agree with my dates, however.

GetLib | August 6, 2017

My guess for 200k car delivered in USA is February 25th

TexasBob | August 6, 2017

FWIW the InsideEV monthly sales tracker shows 134,719 total delivered the end of July including Roadsters since 2010. If current S & X pace continues, that would add another 16,600 US sale through end of year. If their numbers are correct it will definitely be 1Q before the 200k mark is surpassed. Just another data point that points to full credits being available through end of June 2018.

TexasBob | August 6, 2017

Meant to type "through end July" sorry.

gatorj31 | August 6, 2017

It would be end of June, not July. Quarter ends in June

TexasBob | August 6, 2017

I meant the SALES were "through" the end of July :-)

greg | August 6, 2017

That number you have [up to end of July] kind of gels with what the Mode 3 Owners guys said on their recent YouTube the number the Model 3 Owners guys quoted is supposedly coming from Tesla.

Problem is, if its right, then you will have only about 20,000 unmade deliveries for US folks going into Q1 of 2018 - probably not enough to make the full quarters deliveries before car# 200,000 is delivered in the US.
I'm assuming that Model 3 deliveries to US customers will be 30,000 this year, plus the above starting figure, and 14,000 or so Model S and X for the rest of Year (Aug-Dec) will mean 180,000 cars delivered to US folks by end of 2017.

So in that case, you end up with the 200,000th delivery being in/near the end of the quarter which "wastes" a lot of tax credits as you'll only get the next quarter (April-June) before the credits run down to half value.

Don't know if Telsa can reroute deliveries for the S & X to Europe and "go slow" on the Model 3 and S & X US deliveries to the US folks in that quarter (mainly during late Feb and all of March of 2018 to stretch the 200,000th delivery out to 1 April.

If they could, then all dates slip out by quarter which would make AWD folks happy, as that would put their window for getting AWD AND a full Tax credit to 30 September 2018.

Of course, I'm sure there are folks in Europe (who are LHD like the US) who would gratefully their Model 3's early to help Tesla make sales and keep the numbers under 200,000 for US folks.
So if you notice Tesla US deliveries start to slow up in the future you'll know why...

nquery | August 7, 2017

1. Don't forget that the production ramp up is an S curve, and it's likely that the goal of 20,000 per month = 5,000 week won't be reached until the end of December.
2. And then there are holidays/production downtime over Christmas, etc.
3. And then actual delivery of vehicles from Fremont.
4. And this all requires no hiccups in their production ramp up and/or suppliers.

Given all of this, I think it is *extremely* unlikely that Tesla could actually deliver the 30,000 - 35,000 + vehicles before EOY 2017 that would trigger the 200,000 phase-out.

ReD eXiLe ms us | August 8, 2017

The IRS uses the term 'calendar quarter' in regard to the Federal EV Tax Credit. So...


Thus, if the 200,000th car is Delivered, Sold, Acquired on any day from January 1, 2018 through March 31, 2018 the Phaseout will begin on July 1, 2018.

KP in NPT | August 8, 2017

If I added right (someone check my work) the US sales of S, 3, X, and roadster through July are 134,669. gotten from the monthly scorecard on Insideevs.

So based on that, I am thinking January. I could even see December if the model 3 ramp goes well - but I wouldn't be surprised if they timed it for January on purpose.

Beagle | August 8, 2017

Not a bad response for my first post. Thank you guys, (and gals).

coolnewworld | August 8, 2017

I spoke with someone at Tesla and they said they were actively renegotiating the 200,000 figure with the government. Good luck with that under the Make Coal Great Again administration.

Nexxus | August 9, 2017


You mean Morons Are Governing America, don't you?

KP in NPT | August 9, 2017

I would be shocked if it was true that Tesla is talking with the government about the 200K figure. I would be equally shocked if the government actually agreed to changing it.

Mel. | August 9, 2017

Call someone back and explain how congress works

PhenomeNhan | August 9, 2017

Good stuff, guys.

Just curious how the IRS would determine who would make the cut-off? For example, does Tesla submit the paperwork to the IRS indicating what car # was sold to whom? Say the 250,000th car was sold/delivered to me as the very last vehicle on the cut-off date in 2018 for the $7500 credit. Can I assume that even though the 250,001st person gets his/her tax submitted/processed before me for the year 2019 that I would still qualify for the $7500 tax rebate and not the 250,001st person?

Frank99 | August 9, 2017

It's based on the delivery date - when Tesla assigns the Title to you. If Tesla hits 200,000 in January 2018, then everyone who takes delivery of (pays for and gets title assigned to them) a Tesla before 11:59:59 PM on June 30, 2018 gets the credit. It doesn't matter when the paperwork makes it to the MVD - it only matters when you sign the papers.

Carl Thompson | August 9, 2017

"I would be shocked if it was true that Tesla is talking with the government about the 200K figure. I would be equally shocked if the government actually agreed to changing it."

Ditto that.

It's also possible (though probably unlikely) that the Administration's budget could eliminate the rebate entirely next year. The government is apparently under no obligation to continue the rule as-is. That would suck.


PhenomeNhan | August 9, 2017

That's good to know. Thanks, Frank99!

Doublelift | August 9, 2017

Car manufacturers (Tesla) do not report the date of the 200,000th car, nor do they report who they delivered it to. Some time into each quarter they report the total cumulative sales through the previous quarter. That can kick in the phaseout period if the total is 200,000 or more). Then only time matters, not how many more are sold. See my earlier post for more details.

The single place you qualify for the rebate is IRS Form 8936, line 3. "Date vehicle was placed in service." No asking when you placed your order, when you paid, the date on the title, when your DS called and told you the car was ready. The instructions with the form do not define "placed in service" so it sounds like the meaning must be considered crystal clear.

Frank99 | August 9, 2017

>>> No asking when...

Unless you somehow trigger an audit and they ask for proof. I'd keep the signed and dated paperwork from your delivery around as validation in that case...

krissu | August 9, 2017

To extend the max tax credit Tesla should reach 200000 cars when they hit the peak production rate. This means they should ship some cars to rest of the world and get to 200 000 sold in US on the first day of April. After that to ship only US till end of March 2019.

GetLib | August 9, 2017

@krissu is right

95dawg | August 9, 2017

+1 krissu

bj | August 9, 2017

@krissu - and push back RHD markets to 2H 2019 ?? NO THANKS!!

PhenomeNhan | August 9, 2017

Thanks, Doublelift. I'm clear now :)

Mel. | August 9, 2017

What does the budget have to do with it? See Frank99 's YouTube post above

Rocky_H | August 9, 2017

@Mel, Because the budget is a law passed by Congress. Haven't you heard for years about all kinds of other laws attached as amendments to the budget bills in Congress because people know they will get passed?

As to the timing, I think we're assuming that January is about the earliest they could hit the 200K. What might be interesting is if it's lagging that a little, and if it were going to be coming up like late Feb or early March. They might shift some things a bit to have it hit in the beginning of April to get it at the beginning of a new quarter.

noleaf4me | August 9, 2017

I think you are spot-on MarylandS85.

MarylandS85 | August 9, 2017

Thank you kindly, @noleaf4me, ye whose moniker misinforms, as a LEAF surely graces your abode nightly as it does mine, or shall until it is cast asunder, forsooth to be succeeded by Le Trois de Tesla.

When do you expect to get your 3? I’m assuming then you can accurately say, "No LEAF for me."

krissu | August 9, 2017

One important fact is tax credit competition. Running out of tax credit M3 is in worse position vs new Leaf or whatever more comes to market. Thats of course till these reach 200 000 cars as well.

Mel. | August 10, 2017

Yes, but the budget put forward by the White House is not law , what you are saying happens in congress. Do you disagree?
The White House budget proposal is not a bill.
Bush took credit for the tax credit we take, but many in congress put that together so he could sign it into law.
Sorry for the long answer

brian | August 13, 2017

In response to @coolnewworld - I too find it incredibly hard to imagine that this current Administration extends anything... and I'll ask the opposing viewpoint question... does anyone think it is feasible that this Administration CANCELS the EV CREDIT altogether? New year, new budget, etc. It's crossed my mind, is all.

mntlvr23 | August 13, 2017

@Frank99 - and then there is this one: DOT com/watch?v=JUDSeb2zHQ0

Sweetride | November 1, 2017

Any speculation about when Tesla now might reach 200K deliveries, or any other insights on the projected phase-out timeline?