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Fall 2013 Supercharger map has one month to go

Fall 2013 Supercharger map has one month to go

There are quite a few Superchargers left to install, 44 by my count. That about 1 1/2 per day and with not time off for weekends and Thanksgiving.

I'm sure I'm not alone in frequently checking the Supercharger Map in order to plan future road trips.

Is there anybody at all in the forum that thinks Tesla can make the Fall 2013 Map come true?

tes-s | November 20, 2013

They have been making steady progress towards the 100 by yearend.

September 26: 23 currently. Tesla planning 100 by the end of the year. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101044273/ 77 to go!!

October 2: 24 currently, 76 to go!
October 7: 25 currently, 75 to go!
October 17: 26 currently, 74 to go!
October 22: 28 currently, 72 to go!
October 23: 30 currently, 70 to go!
October 25: 31 currently, 69 to go!
November 10: 32 currently, 68 to go!
November 16: 34 currently, 66 to go!

theapple | November 20, 2013

If you look at just the red dots to mean "operational" there are only 8 left. I think several of those (TX, CA) are new in the past couple of days, because a week ago, us neglected folk in the Northeast had the only outstanding red dots. So it looks to me like Tesla is actually beating expectations everywhere else.

pgiralt | November 20, 2013

Red dots are supposed to represent superchargers already done before entering that time period. In other words, the red ones on Fall 2013 are those that were supposed to be finished in Summer.

If you look at the trend, it's been about 10 every 6 weeks which means we will maybe see 10 more before year end. I think I saw somewhere that the target right now is 50 before end of year which is a far cry from the 100.

Devin B | November 20, 2013

50 by year end would be great!

DanD | November 20, 2013

Totally different than how I've read it and how Tesla has talked about it.

North America
Today – 34 stations
Fall 2013 – Most metropolitan areas
Winter 2013 – Coast-to-coast travel
2014 – 80% of the US population and parts of Canada
2015 – 98% of the US population and parts of Canada

Al1 | November 20, 2013

I see no point in counting it down this way. Nowhere has Tesla promised 100 superchargers by year end. Meanwhile most metropolitan areas, I would argue are already covered. And we should reasonably expect about a dozen of new stations by year-end.

It is very difficult to maintain both strong cash position and keep investing into growth. Tesla shows no sign of supercharger rollout slowing down. And that's very good.

However if they choose to deliver a few stations few months later, I don't see it a big deal.

Al1 | November 20, 2013

Currently 35. Another station in Texas just went live!

tes-s | November 20, 2013

They can rollout at any rate they like, and adjust the pace for cashflow or any other reason. But is it too much to ask that the maps they publish have some relationship to their actual plans??

tes-s | November 20, 2013

September 26: 23 currently, 77 to go!!
October 2: 24 currently, 76 to go!
October 7: 25 currently, 75 to go!
October 17: 26 currently, 74 to go!
October 22: 28 currently, 72 to go!
October 23: 30 currently, 70 to go!
October 25: 31 currently, 69 to go!
November 10: 32 currently, 68 to go!
November 16: 34 currently, 66 to go!
November 20: 35 currently, 65 to go!

stevenmaifert | November 20, 2013

Think of it more as a goal than a hard commitment. And, remember they have surprised us with a few we didn't expect.

clindon | November 20, 2013

@Al1| I agree that there is no point to counting down from some arbitrary number. It is both more reasoanble and fufilling to follow the count increase and the growth of the area being covered. However I disagree with your ascertion that "... most metropolitan areas, I would argue are already covered ..." Certainly the west coast is reasonably well covered and the east coast is starting to fill in as is a bit of the south. But there are a lot of major metropolitan areas that are yet to receive any significant coverage. And for those of us living in Canada, well we are still awaiting our first. I have no doubt that the network will grow to meet and ultimately exceed the current plans but it will take time. These are not cheap, they are cost centres which are not intended to become revenue sources so they are very sensitive to company cash flow and overall financial health. Even if money were no object there are many factors beyond Tesla's control such as permit processes, construction schedules, weather effects on construction, union activities, holidays etc.
What I'd like to see is a chronoligical listing of SC installations rather than the geographic only listing currently shown on the website maps. That would make it easier to track the network growth.
Thanks and Cheers
Carl

Brian H | November 20, 2013

clindon;

Yes, they are cheap. Even the first 100 stations will cost only about $20 Million. Just write it off as marketing expense. Ultimately Solar City will pay all electricity costs, and the only remaining expense will be maintenance (trivial).

bonaire | November 21, 2013

Brian, how exactly is a different corporation going to be paying Tesla's electric costs? How will it be shown on both company's books?

Grant910 | November 21, 2013

The new ones north of New York (e.g. Sturbridge, which was on the map six months ago) already were changed from "summer" to "fall", and I expect that they will next be changed from "fall" to "spring". The seasonal labels are neither commitments nor estimates, and they really should remove the seasonal labels.

J.T. | November 21, 2013

@tes-s

But is it too much to ask that the maps they publish have some relationship to their actual plans??

I had to smile when I read that.
The more I deal with the company, and the more I read of others dealing with the company, the more I realize that for all their brains, all their acumen, all their talent and vision there is not one customer service expert in any position of authority. Oh, someone probably has the title but they don't have a clue as to what their job is.

dayoreo | November 21, 2013

Good Communications and updates about Superchargers / Model X plans and progress would go along way.

tezzla.SoCal | November 21, 2013

Looks like the San Juan Capistrano SC is moving along!

tezzla.SoCal | November 21, 2013

Let me try that again!

Car t man | November 21, 2013

@bonaire

your view of corporate accounting is accurate.
however, Solar city is also getting marketing
through this, so that is actually covered.

would we and so many of us talk about Solar city
without this? I know I wouldn't single that
company out in any conversation otherwise..

Al1 | November 21, 2013

... for all their brains, all their acumen, all their talent and vision there is not one customer service expert in any position of authority...

You may be right there. I would even say when all their brains, all their acumen, all their talent and vision are gone and they have average inventory of 60 days and on some models as much as 2 years they'll really have to catch up on customers service.

Al1 | November 21, 2013

PS: I've never realized before customer service may be so different from customer experience.

achilles992000 | November 21, 2013

how many superchargers were there in the US at the beginning of the year?

Kleist | November 21, 2013

Eight

hillcountryfun | November 21, 2013

Elon has stated that the costs associated with SuperChargers is minimal. That said, a complete SuperCharger network would be a significant driver towards widespread adoption of Teslas. Of course I'm not aware of Elon's direction to the SuperCharger installation teams but I'd suggest they simply start them all. Move them all forward as fast as they can. I know there's a focus on supporting his cross country trip and that certainly makes sense but since they are dealing with external entities (e.g. state/city governments, utilities, etc.) the more you can start the more you'll be able to finish. Long story short...hire more people to support the Supercharger installation and start them all.

Ok, that's my $0.02...

Al1 | November 21, 2013

"Elon has stated that the costs associated with SuperChargers is minimal".

Each station is between 250 and 500 K. That would make cost of 100 stations between 25 and 50 million.

And that is expected from a company that is constantly accused of burning too much cash too fast. Don't forget on GAAP accounting they're still in red.

No car manufacturer is doing that.

"That said, a complete SuperCharger network would be a significant driver towards widespread adoption of Teslas".

They're not trying to increase sales right now. They have serious production constraints and customer service that lags behind in many places.

That said, they are still delivering superchargers. We don't have their sales numbers by regions, but where they have strongest sales the network has already been built.

The only area where they seem behind is North-East.

Jolinar | November 21, 2013

well, I don't think SolarCity can pay for ellectricity... actually it's just the opposite. If Tesla make deal with SolarCity to install PV panels on SCs, SolarCity will pay for panels and Tesla will then pay to SolarCity for electricity (that's the SolarCity business model).

SamO | November 21, 2013

Just saw a video with JB Straubel where tesla installed 600kWh battery backup to smooth cost of energy produced with solar panels.

http://youtu.be/ShJuKTmtHjY

Out4aDuck | November 21, 2013

The solar panels are just green window dressing. At best, they could provide 10% of the required power for the superchargers. But they're not even angled properly to maximize solar collection. Essentially, all of the supercharger energy is drawn from the grid. Of course, that doesn't mean that you couldn't locate a solar array elsewhere on the grid. The roof of the Freemont plant comes to mind.

tes-s | November 21, 2013

@AL1 - are you saying they have no intention of spending the money to build the supercharger network on the schedule they have published?

Al1 | November 21, 2013

"@AL1 - are you saying they have no intention of spending the money to build the supercharger network on the schedule they have published?"

No. But they build stations and I am good with it.

What I am saying is no other car manufacturer is doing it.

Al1 | November 21, 2013

And if tomorrow they publish a new supercharger network with no single one planned to be built, I'll have to go along with it. The only thing left would be car to car comparison.

tes-s | November 21, 2013

Nissan? Don't they already have more chargers than Tesla has dots on their map?

Jolinar | November 21, 2013

thx SamoSam

I like when tech guy is talking instead of marketing guy :-)

Jolinar | November 21, 2013

tes-s

Does Nissan have 4-10 fast chargers per site? I thought Nissan has only one per site, maybe I'm wrong...

tes-s | November 21, 2013

Wouldn't we be better off with a single SC at every gas station, then 10 located 150 miles apart?

I've never seen a line at a Nissan charger. Then again, I'm not really looking.

Other car manufacturers are rolling out charging infrastructure. Nissan shares (at least some dealers do) with vehicles from other manufacturers, as does Tesla with their 14-50 outlets available to the public at some locations.

Al1 | November 21, 2013

"Nissan? Don't they already have more chargers than Tesla has dots on their map?"

No. They partnered with companies like Better Place and Ecotality which go belly up one after another. The majority of public chargers are built with public money. I bet Better Place and Ecotality had also big chunk of OPM (other people's money).

Al1 | November 21, 2013

"I've never seen a line at a Nissan charger".

Have you at least seen one car being charged there? It might be quite cumbersome with the time it takes, you know.

Odds are much better to place them at corporate parkings and new condos.

tes-s | November 21, 2013

I was not referring to those - I was referring to the chargers they have at every Nissan dealership in the US, and I suspect in most other countries.

PatT | November 21, 2013

Since Model S has three to four times the range of the Leaf, Tesla only needs 1/9 to 1/16 the number of chargers to have the same coverage.

DanD | November 21, 2013

My point is, they've published a schedule of sorts, but if that schedule doesn't resemble reality, why publish it. I can only mislead customers.

Those of us that would like to plan future vacations in our Model S would like some semblance of a real schedule though. We can live with scarcity in the present if we have certainty about the future.

And finally, if the Supercharger schedule claim is not to be believed, then what other aspects of the company should we begin to doubt?

Al1 | November 21, 2013

"I was not referring to those - I was referring to the chargers they have at every Nissan dealership in the US, and I suspect in most other countries".

Right. And I've read some customer experience at those dealerships.

Are you saying Tesla customers would be better off with dealership model?

You know, I think I better understand now. Nissan is committed to EV-s. They just couldn't find electrodes to ramp up production to what they had promised to the US government when they got government financing.

Al1 | November 21, 2013

@DanD

"if that schedule doesn't resemble reality, why publish it. I can only mislead customers".

Good point. But you know, I still keep checking. Every once in a while it accurately captures current state. And then I don't expect from future more than just general vision.

"And finally, if the Supercharger schedule claim is not to be believed, then what other aspects of the company should we begin to doubt?"

Another good point. With other ICE car manufacturers there are decades of experience, and great leadership of the CEO. No room for any doubt there.

NKYTA | November 21, 2013

@DanD
"if that schedule doesn't resemble reality, why publish it. I can only mislead customers".

Yeah, they have to walk a fine line here. The idea of publishing it is for PR/Marketing/dispelling range-anxiety.

And they they run into regulatory/permitting issues in various locales (which are different depending on where in the country you are).

Overall, I'm super happy with the progress they are making. When I signed up for the car, SC's weren't even suggested.

But then again, I'm lucky to live in CA.
;-)

DanD | November 21, 2013

All I want to do is schedule a trip to Charleston and another to Winston-Salem. I need to do that months in advance.

So I'd leave some padding on the schedule. But right now the web site says I'm good to go by Dec. 21.

I don't know what to believe so my New Year's trip to SC might have to guzzle some gas or Jet fuel.

I don't think there's a fine line. I think there's just a schedule that needs to be adjusted to reflect reality.

Like it or not the SCs are part of the value proposition to Tesla customers now, current and future.

If there are permitting and construction problems then certainly Tesla can push out the schedules.

JZ13 | November 21, 2013

Tesla is like every other Silicon Valley tech company, they are almost always later than the original schedule. They get it done, just not on time. Same with the Superchargers. They are coming, just not as scheduled.

Sudre_ | November 21, 2013

I have found it really simple to plan out my trip to Florida this December. It went like this... Is there a complete Supercharger network on the route now? NO. Buy a plane ticket. Pretty simple and I didn't have panic either.

hillcountryfun | November 21, 2013

My real point from above is that the SuperCharger rollout is moving much slower than anyone (Elon, SC teams, Us, etc.) expected. And because of that I think they should simply try and start all remaining SC installations. This will mean more hiring for that team and so be it. And no, I don't think 25 to 50 million for providing coast to coast EV transportation for Tesla owners is a lot...in fact it seems like a bargain! I just think there's a lot of things outside their control with the SC installs and they just need to start them all.

achilles992000 | November 21, 2013

From 8 SC to 35 in 11 months. That's not bad but nowhere near what the map projections show. Hopefully northeast will be done in 3-4 months. Atlanta needs a SC station. Big airport hub so a lot of travel in that area.

tes-s | November 21, 2013

@AL1 - You can call their maps "general vision", but they refer to them as "coverage".

@achilles - NE done in 3-4 months? I certainly hope so, but the last supercharger they opened (Darien) was 5 months ago, and that is a mere 25 miles from another supercharger (Milford).

@hillcountry - not sure they need more people to increase the supercharger openings. How many people do they need to sign contracts with installation contractors, or orchestrate the marketing event around supercharger openings?

tes-s | November 21, 2013

@JZ13 - perhaps that explains the stock price. When it was at $190, people were living the dream and muskmania. As reality sets in, and they see superchargers are behind, production is not ramping up, Model X getting pushed off, and who knows when GenIII is coming - stock price is slowing moving towards a more rational valuation.

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