Based on statements from Elon it's estimated sometime in the first quarter of 2018.
God: You'll find out when you die, Homer.
Homer: I can't wait that long!
God: You can't wait six months?
It depends on when you expect your car. If your turn would come up in the next six months, then you would see a delay. Most people won't get to configure until AWD is an option anyway. Among those who are able to configure before AWD is available, some of those builds would get deferred toward the end of that pool, having no net affect on those that follow it.
Elon Musk indicates that there's a "pretty good" chance that line-waiters would get AWD before the end of 2017:http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-says-chances-pretty-good-awd-tesla-model-...
IMHO, the "best case" schedule inside Tesla probably shows AWD deliveries by EOY 2017, and that's likely what EM is referring to. The engineer in me assumes that something's going to slip, and Q1 is probably a more likely date.
This probably cuts it really close for the $7500 tax credit.
I guess we know all the options but one for sure now...
6 colors, optional glass roof, 18" or 19" wheels, and autopilot option = 48 possibilities.
What is the last option at launch? Apparently not AWD... Maybe a bigger battery? Or free supercharging?
@Frank99 I think you are correct in that AWD will not arrive until 2018. It's going to be a long wait.
There will definitely be two battery choices. You're forgetting some kind of tech package (whether it includes the cold weather package or that is separate), some interior color scheme options (if not leather, although I expect premium interior to be an option) and I don't think autopilot counts in production variants. While production of AWD will be delayed six months, I suspect it will be an option when you configure (there will simply be a note about it delaying your order).
It would be interesting to know given the choice if there was no delay, how many would get the AWD. It seems like a good 80% want it. Then the next question is, how many are going to settle with RWD to get the car earlier even though they want AWD?
I am having a debate with myself on this :) I live in CO where AWD is very, very handy to have. BUT I really could use the tax help this year :) I don't need the car though until May of next year (already have S and X, only two drivers in the fam, but next year, son turns 16).
So, do I settle and get the RWD so get tax breaks now, even though car not needed yet, and hope that son can handle RWD in the snow? OR wait, give up on tax break this year, and hope it is still around when get the car in 2018? Decisions.
AWD for me is more about performance and efficiency. Snow is handled by traction control w/ digital timing and low center of gravity.
Adding a M3 for your kids probably does not need AWD.
If we find out that AWD wait is not too long then your decision is easy. If it's Spring 2018 I'd go w/ RWD.
Very true - thanks for the thoughts JeffreyR.
Most welcome oh Pigeon Eradicator :)
The good news is there is no wrong decision.
The Eradicator -
youtube DOT com/watch?v=qFO1O020uyw
"how many are going to settle with RWD to get the car earlier even though they want AWD?"
If all of the other options I want are available when it comes time for me to configure I may go with RWD in order to get it earlier, and ensure I get the full tax credit. Otherwise I'll wait and see when the various are available and when AWD is projected to be available to me.
Since I'm on the East Coast, I'm in the (likely) last cohort of the early reservations, which likely puts me into 2018 anyway. It will be interesting to see how this plays out!
Maybe slightly off topic, but how much storage capacity will be lost with the AWD version? Guesstimate obviously!
That is cargo-storage capacity BTW!
I would guess none since my understanding is that the frunk space on later Model S were the same for AWD and RWD due to the same interior cover is used for both versions. I'd expect the same for the Model 3 but it is only my guess.
Given that you live in an area that gets a fair amount of snow, I would wait for the AWD. Traction control can only do so much with RWD. AWD will be safer--as long as you caution your son that even AWD has limits.