Submitted by Bubba2000 on March 2, 2014
I am in the process of listening to the audio book "Innovator's Dilemma". A lot of the contents apply to Tesla:
1. MS has significant cost advantages in maintenance, energy and environment. So far, the cost of the MS is higher than comparable ICE autos is some cases (BMW5, Audi 7), but in other cases it is close. Economies of manufacturing scale, gigafactory, etc will drop the price steeply. Competition is not really committed.
2. Initially range has constraints because of lack of Supercharger networks. ICE autos have gas stations all over the place, so they have advantages for now. However, the cost of SCs, HPWC are a fraction of a gasoline station.
3. ICE competition - Big companies make a lot of money from their ICE autos. A few more incremental dollars and they can launch a new model and make a ton of money like Porsche is doing with the Macan. GM adds some extra chrome on the front grill and it is a big $$$. They are not about to bet the farm on battery gigafactory. Even BMW with the i3, i8 are just protecting their ICE investment. BMW is not about making a huge commitment in $$$Bs, to secure battery supply, develop long range BEVs, deploy Supercharger Networks. The came with a half pregnant solution of strapping a lawn mower engine to the i3 golf cart. Nothing but hybrids.
The key enabling tech is the improving battery performance and supply... both of which Tesla is securing. I think that with a design effort, Tesla could design a light weight small Model E and use the existing battery tech and sell the car for $45k. 18-20k for a 40-50 KW-hr skateboard. Glider for $18k made of steel. Outsource the glider from Hyundai or Kia. Tons of options. Heck, I would even let the Koreans market, service the auto. Just add 30-40% profit to the skateboard. Supercharger per use after initial fee.