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To The Know Nothings

To The Know Nothings

To The People Who Think Too Highly of Their Competence: YOU WERE WRONG.

AGAIN.

Mobileye is a vendor. It does not provide the entire solution bolted on.

Tesla makes their own software.

_________________________________________________________________

Correction to article: "The First Person to Hack the iPhone Built a Self-Driving Car"

The article by Ashlee Vance did not correctly represent Tesla or MobilEye. We think it is extremely unlikely that a single person or even a small company that lacks extensive engineering validation capability will be able to produce an autonomous driving system that can be deployed to production vehicles. It may work as a limited demo on a known stretch of road -- Tesla had such a system two years ago -- but then requires enormous resources to debug over millions of miles of widely differing roads.

This is the true problem of autonomy: getting a machine learning system to be 99% correct is relatively easy, but getting it to be 99.9999% correct, which is where it ultimately needs to be, is vastly more difficult. One can see this with the annual machine vision competitions, where the computer will properly identify something as a dog more than 99% of the time, but might occasionally call it a potted plant. Making such mistakes at 70 mph would be highly problematic.

We should also clarify that Tesla’s autopilot system was designed and developed in-house. Were this simply a matter of repackaging a vendor’s technology, as claimed in the article, we would not be unique in offering this groundbreaking experience in production vehicles. If other car companies could meet or exceed the Tesla product by buying an off-the-shelf solution, they would do so.

Tesla Autopilot includes radar, ultrasonics, GPS/nav, cameras and real-time connectivity to Tesla servers for fleet learning. Going forward, we will continue to use the most advanced component technologies, such as MobilEye’s vision chip, in our vehicles. Their part is the best in the world at what it does and that is why we use it.

https://www.teslamotors.com/support/correction-article-first-person-hack...

Chunky Jr. | December 17, 2015

There is a huge leap between a demo, no matter how impressive, and productizing that demo. I don't think most people understand how big a leap that is, and in some cases the leap is bigger than other.

DAB | December 17, 2015

+1 SamO

And now we wait for one of those users to come in here and argue about it for 30 pages. Will they try? We will see...

*grabs popcorn*

Bighorn | December 17, 2015

The George Hotz rumor yesterday wreaked a little havoc with MBLY's valuation.

Baribrotzer | December 17, 2015

Just as a complete sidebar:

The Know-Nothings were a violent, anti-immigrant secret society, active during the middle of the 19th Century. Like the Klan some years later, they were also a substantial political force with supporters at all levels of government, and membership may have often been an open secret. However, whenever asked about their possible membership or the society's activities, members would say, "I know nothing." From whence came their name.

The more things change, the more they remain the same.

Captain_Zap | December 17, 2015

I did do some homework before buying MobilEye stock last year. I did my homework before the IPO and I bought after the initial hullabaloo. That homework didn't come from a forum or a random news article either.

SamO | December 17, 2015

@DAB,

I've popped a whole bucket. My first (and soon to be trademarked querry) "You mad bro?"

Munch munch

@CZ,

I think Mobilieye is an excellent company that adds lots of value. I am also a big fan of the end product: driverless and assisted driving systems.

I am not so much a fan of those who claimed that Tesla didn't provide any of their own efforts to the system.

Some called it a "bolt on" or claimed "any automaker can do what Tesla does."

@Baribrotzer,

The thread name was NOT an accident. :-)

Captain_Zap | December 17, 2015

@SamO

I just don't understand the motives of anyone that would try to compare Tesla's AP system that has MobliEye components with the aftermarket bolt on systems that MobliEye offers. They are completely different animals with different capabilities.

rxlawdude | December 17, 2015

"Tesla Autopilot includes radar, ultrasonics, GPS/nav, cameras and real-time connectivity to Tesla servers for fleet learning."

Where's P-Dave? He repeatedly, vehemently denied there was any such thing as "fleet learning."

AmpedRealtor | December 17, 2015

Pungoteague_Dave, I believe this thread is for you... yoo hoo! :)

SamO | December 17, 2015

@CZ,

Some people who like Tesla, need to be smarter than Elon.
They need to show that he cut corners or is a carnival barker or blowing smoke in some way.

Some examples:

Battery swap
Mobileye
Autonomous / Autopilot, and . . .

The very purpose of Tesla Motors, to ACCELERATE SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT.

He wasn't the only one.

The silver lining is that Tesla is willing to cough up for great programmers and developers, even if they didn't land this one. I'm more encouraged than ever that Tesla

SamO | December 17, 2015

is years ahead of it's walking dead competitors.

Rocky_H | December 17, 2015

@rxlawdude, @Amped, If he does come, perhaps he'll address this one too, just to save time.

"There will never be a Supercharger within 150 miles of where I live."

Rocky_H | December 17, 2015

Sorry, that was uncalled for. A pleasant surprise of Tesla's better-than-expected progress has broken a prediction--not a bad thing. But I guess that is what happened with the others, too.

SamO | December 17, 2015

@Rocky_H,

He's right though.

There are TWO Superchargers within 80 miles.

Salisbury, MD 72 miles
Norfolk, VA 64 miles

lulz

russellkrueger | December 17, 2015

I have MobileEye on my travel bus ... it is practically worthless. No comparison to any application of MobileEye technology on the Tesla ... use AutoPilot everyday with no issues (yep some lane wandering, but nothing to speak of).

JiveMiguel | December 17, 2015

@SamO, @AmpedRealtor: +1

"Some people ... need to be smarter than Elon ..."

That's funny.

Son of a Gunn | December 17, 2015

Ashlee Vance. This "writer" will twist words to come up with any story he wants to write. How does this prick continue to be considered legitimate?

Red Sage ca us | December 17, 2015

"Their part is the best in the world at what it does and that is why we use it."

"He's the best there is at what he does... And what he does isn't very nice."

SamO | December 18, 2015

I feel a disturbance in the force . . .

JiveMiguel | December 19, 2015

@SamO: There will soon be three Superchargers within 80 miles of his home ...

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/59148-Supercharger-Laurel-MD

... and the Plantation, FL Supercharger is LIVE as of this AM.

I guess he's really mad now.

Pungoteague_Dave | December 19, 2015

Once gain, every single item above that is attributed to me is incorrect. It takes things out of context, or simply makes things up. I have ALWAYS been a supporter of Superchargers and teh entire concept and NEVER said there would not be one within 150 miles of my house. I never insinuated such, and challenge anyone here to provide such a reference. It is crazy talk - on elf the very first Superchargers was fully within 150 miles of my house. Insanity. On virtually every other allegation above, I was an remain correct, except the ones that are pure fabrications. I am not going go through this thread and refute every one, but lets just say the base line is incorrect if it addressed at me. I NEVER said or used the words that Mobileye was a bolt on. Never. Not once. I said that they bought the technology. Which is correct and remains valid.

An Jive Miguel - the Laurel Super charger will not be wishing 150 miles of my home except as teh crow flies. it will informality be over 200 miles. So once again, you are proven incorrect, even if I HAD made the 150 mile statement, which I did not. And when did I ever say anything about Plantation? I have also waited that one eagerly. Again, please do not make stuff up. I am one of the heaviest long distance Supercharger users around here and made many long trips before they even existed, including to South Florida and back.

SamO | December 19, 2015

181.5 miles per google, but what's a few miles between BFF. :-)

SamO | December 19, 2015

You've been right about everything . . . lol

You mad, bro?

sbeggs | December 19, 2015

Dave!

You're slurring your words!

Pungoteague_Dave | December 19, 2015

Actually, @ SamO it is 192 miles from door to door. I'll take the over. Wanna guess how many gas stations I'll pass on that route? I am guessing over 100 directly on the route.

SamO | December 19, 2015

From Above: We should also clarify that Tesla’s autopilot system was designed and developed in-house. Were this simply a matter of repackaging a vendor’s technology, as claimed by @PD, we would not be unique in offering this groundbreaking experience in production vehicles. If other car companies could meet or exceed the Tesla product by buying an off-the-shelf solution, they would do so.

@PDave,

"Tesla is, of necessity, often a follower on features like [Autopilot], which have been on other luxury cars for years."

"It is simply more [sic] eveidence of the fact that this is mostly a Mobileye system. Someone forgot to delete that line from the Mobileye wording when they cut and pasted it into the Tesla UI. Embarrassing."

"However, [Tesla Motors] they don't write the TACC software or the blind spot algorithms."

"Tesla did simply take the entire Mobileye package of hardware [sic] anf firmware, and added their front end. Both Mobileye and Tesla say this. This is true of much of their software."

"I believe there is no other magic here. Elon is probably hyperbolically morphing and expanding the capability to report limited intervention event data and pass it back to Mobileye at some point."

That took me all of 5 minutes.

"Is that how you want to play it? Cause I'll play it like that. I'll play it like Lionel Richie, all night long, lady." - Gary Grobowski THE BREAKUP

georgehawley.fl.us | December 19, 2015
SamO | December 19, 2015

@PD,

"Wanna guess how many gas stations I'll pass on that route? I am guessing over 100 directly on the route."

However many stations there are in 2015, there are ~30% fewer than 10 years ago.

JiveMiguel | December 19, 2015

@SamO: +1

I'll have what the @Pungoteague_Dave on the floor is having.

SamO | December 19, 2015
Ankit Mishra | December 19, 2015

Bro @SamO, how did you add gifs to your posts?

JiveMiguel | December 19, 2015

@sbeggs: Dave is not slerr ... slurr (hic!) ... slurring his words:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPPtrqvHGEg

JiveMiguel | December 19, 2015

Okay, maybe he is slurr (hic!) slurring, but only a little (dribble dribble) ... Hic!

JeffreyR | December 20, 2015

@AM GIF files are just an image (IMG):

Check out the Tips & Tricks for searching, posting pictures, and other useful tidbits

Red Sage ca us | December 20, 2015

Yeah. GIFs have always been possible here. I made this one years ago:

But I posted one that the Hidden Moderators removed once... It was the exploding head from the climax of the movie 'SCANNERS' (1981). Amazing how much it looked like Jim Cramer.

DAB | December 20, 2015

Lol.

...I'm going to need another bag of popcorn for PD's response

Rocky_H | December 21, 2015

@Pungoteague_Dave, Whoa, you went there.

Quote: "Once gain, every single item above that is attributed to me is incorrect. I have ALWAYS been a supporter of Superchargers and the entire concept and NEVER said there would not be one within 150 miles of my house. I never insinuated such, and challenge anyone here to provide such a reference. It is crazy talk - one of the very first Superchargers was fully within 150 miles of my house. Insanity."

Oh damn dude--it's on. On a lot of other stuff, you have said that it was misunderstood or that's not really really the wording you used or whatever. Fine, I'll let other people argue with those. But on this one you are flat out denying you said this and challenging someone for a reference? Well, I didn't just type that from memory. I copied and pasted that directly from your own words so that you could not deny that you said it (as you just did). Here's the reference:

https://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/new-york-times-article-and-my-re...

And here is the direct text:

---------------------------------
"There will never be a Supercharger within 150 miles of where I live. Google map Pungoteague. And since when should weather enter significantly into how far a car can go? I get the science, but nowhere did the glowing 300 mile or 265 mile range predictions say "except take off 10% from rated range for real world factors, and anther 30% if it is real cold or real hot." I am not being pessimistic. I am being realistic about what a real car sitting in a garage under my feet can do for my family. The practical advisable trip range limit with a max range charge for an 85kw Model S, with a reasonable 30% cushion is 175 miles when new, less as the battery ages. That makes it a lot less practical today and rules out about 100 trips per year to the city that I had expected to make."
---------------------------------

It is not a bad thing to admit that you said this. Admit that it was an incorrect prediction, and conclude that this is something to be glad that you were wrong about.

rxlawdude | December 21, 2015

@Rocky - Thanks for doing what I'm too lazy to do when PD claims he never said this or that.

He's been pretty much silent about fleet learning (he denied it exists), was wrong about the release date of auto-steer, and on several other points.

Then again, this is the time of year when we should all be more tolerant and forgiving.

Rocky_H | December 21, 2015

@rxlawdude, This one bugs me, because my dad does this. He has a pride streak that will not ever admit to being wrong about anything for any reason. If you point out that he was wrong or mistaken, he will insist he never said it. Most of the time, you don't have a recording of what someone said, so it's useless arguing about it. @P_Dave has generally said that there were shades of meaning or context in other things, so I didn't even bother to argue any of those, because there wouldn't be any nailing anything down anyway, but this one is completely simple, absolute, clear-cut, yes/no, with no implying, out-of-context, etc. etc. so it's worth standing up for because it is a clear case to see what lengths he will go to to deny being wrong. I was surprised he did.

Bighorn | December 21, 2015

Dave freely admits he's right only 99% of the time.

Rocky_H | January 4, 2016

Huh, it's been two weeks since P_Dave vehemently denied his statement that I quoted, implied I was making it up, and challenged me to post a reference (which I did). Why has he been so silent here then? I see that P_Dave is weighing in on other Supercharger issues in other threads, so I know he's participating on the forum.

SUN 2 DRV | January 4, 2016

Rocky:

+1

I was wondering the exact same thing.... I'm sure he's old enough he could easily blame it on his memory. Mine certainly lets me down often enough. :-)

Pungoteague_Dave | January 4, 2016

So yeah, I said it. I was wrong. Shoot me. But I only come here sporadically, did not see the responses above. Sorry for not being around for two weeks to supply your fix. Superchargers are the best thing in my life after the car itself, including the two that are 70 miles north and 80 miles south. I never, ever use them, but thanks anyway Tesla.

cephellow | January 4, 2016

See, Dave's not such a bad guy. He admitted he was wrong, so hopefully this thread disappears soon.

Rocky_H | January 4, 2016

@P_Dave, Quote: "So yeah, I said it. I was wrong. Shoot me."

I'm not trying to shoot you. Your saying that illustrates what the problem is. You still think that admitting you were wrong about something is some horrific sin, and that you think people want to attack you for being wrong. That's not it at all.

Being able to admit one was mistaken about something is a character quality of wisdom, maturity, and humility. Doesn't anyone remember their parents saying when they made you do something mature that you didn't want to do, "It builds character."? I was trying to help give you an opportunity to learn that and take a step out of that bad mindset, but you instead chose the hard way.

I don't think you were purposefully trying to hide it. It's part of the nature of having this mindset of thinking that you are always correct. So when something you said turns out to be incorrect, you honestly forget you said it, because having that memory doesn't fit that perception of yourself that your predictions are always right.

mrspaghetti | January 4, 2016

God forgive me, I'm enjoying this thread.

PBEndo | January 4, 2016

I (vaguely) remember PD admitting he was wrong about how much charge he would need to get through the Rockies in winter. He acknowledged that Bighorn had given some sound advice that he had ignored. That is admirable.

Baribrotzer | January 5, 2016

@Rocky_H: "You still think that admitting you were wrong about something is some horrific sin, and that you think people want to attack you for being wrong. That's not it at all.....Being able to admit one was mistaken about something is a character quality of wisdom, maturity, and humility."

Sorry, but you're wrong on that one. Maybe that once was the case - which I find hard to believe - but not any more. The culture has shifted, and admitting that you're wrong about anything, no matter how petty, means you're weak, a loser, no winner, and going to be somebody's lunch pretty soon. It shows a lack of will, and any conflict is at least partly a contest of will.

No, the proper and accepted course of action is to double down: to insist that you're right, to not accept being contradicted, and to refuse any evidence to the contrary. Factual evidence can always be found, constructed, or buried if necessary. But what can't be faked is will. Double down, don't blink, and you'll never lose the contest of will - and when it comes down to winning or losing, the contest of will is usually all that matters.

And if you admit you're wrong, you're just giving them an easy opportunity to stick the knife in.

J.T. | January 5, 2016

@Baribrotzer It sounds like the Trump playbook.

SbMD | January 5, 2016

@Baribrotzer - indeed that seems more like the culture, but really not the case when looking at the most successful and enduring people, leaders and otherwise.
Also recommend reading a book by David Brooks called "The Road to Character" for a thoughtful look at this and related aspects.

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