Submitted by nickjhowe on January 22, 2013
I've been having a bit of a debate on my Youtube channel with a Tesla hater who thinks TM is heading for bankruptcy real soon. I don't think so. So it got me thinking what might TM's financials look like going forward. Elon suggested they wouldn't be profitable until 2nd half of 13, so assuming that, assuming they are at full production in Q1, assuming an average selling price, and taking Q3 actuals as a starting point I came up with the following. Most numbers are complete wild guesses.
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Mode S Sold (#) 253 2500 5000 5000
Revenue ($m) 50 225 400 400
Gross Margin (%) (17) 10 15 20
Gross Margin ($) (8.5) 22.5 60 80
R&D 62 40 40 40
SG&A 38 45 50 55
Operating Profit (Loss) (108) (62.5) (30) (15)
Cash 330 267.5 237.5 222.5
Anyone else want to take a stab?
(BTW - Tesla Stock currently up 2% on the news from TM exec Jerome Guillen that the plant is running at full capacity and on schedule to meet full production numbers for 2013)