How many Model S cars have rolled off the assembly line? Is there a running total somewhere?
Rest assured that it does not take 3 months to build a car. There are 2 batching processes going on behind the scenes to manufacture and deliver the cars efficiently. First, you want to batch up identical/nearly identical cars to maximize line efficiency, but you also want to have batches of cars going to various areas of the country for efficiency of transportation and delivery. They also want to know they'll have all the parts they need as they need them for the upcoming production period, which means they need to know the exact configuration of the next N cars they are building.
So the brain trust at Tesla has determined that 90 to 120 days lead time gives them the best efficiency overall.
30-90 days is my guess of today's "process time", not really how long it takes to run a single car thru the line. A better way to think about delivery time is that Tesia is not going to expand production linearly but rather exponentially once they get past the current "one per day" start up.
It has occurred to me that the "one per day" target gives 23.5 hours after that car comes off the line to remove the tooling, adjust it, change inspection standards, etc. etc. before building the "next car". I think this is a great approach.
The real tell will be when the first 3-4 cars are delivered to owners. That would signal the process and tooling changes are 98% complete and the exponential increase in daily deliveries has begun.
?? Since cars go sequentially from robot station to robot station, why would tooling need to be removed? AFAIK part of the design was to make it so that that rarely or never happens.
I suspect the car takes a fraction of the time they allow themselves to make. I think Tesla220 gets his car in August, latest. Remember, TM has stated all Sigs will have been produced by October.
@BrianH - my suggest about tooling was that its removal was for minor adjustments etc. to make fit/finish meet "best in the world" standards. That is why I see the one per day ramping up exponentially. Of course the line will manufacture cars with minimal process time (will be interesting to see if Tesla ever tells us how long that actually when in full production).
Idea: a better status tag be "Tesla is now finishing the factory that will build your car"!
They have already complete the 250 founders cars if they are starting on Sigs. The adjusting of the tools is done. I doubt they delivered crappy cars to the founders. I agree with Brians timeline.
@Sudre_ - is there any evidence they have delivered any cars beyond the first 12 and a unknown number of test drive cars? I'm not a all negative (far from it, I've been told October for my sig too) just have not heard anything announced about any further deliveries. Thus my thinking that the line is/was being adjusted with the "one per day". I do expect to see a flood of deliveries any day now!
@Sudre_ | JUNE 30, 2012
"From this pic:http://www.motortrend.com/features/consumer/1206_temple_of_tesla_touring...
I see 3 cars on the line that are close enough to roll off on the same day. I am guessing they are at 3 cars a day at least right now."
I called 7/11 because I was concerned about the lack of deliveries and was told they were making "a few a day." Maybe they are going to do a bulk announcement (eg 100's not 10's) for the up coming earnings call in Aug (no date set yet).
However, this would be typical Elon showmanship "ALL SIG'S WILL BE DELIVERED by 9/1" ! ! ! We can only hope :)
That link didn't work for me... Let's try:
Tesla needs a Tracker app like Dominos has for pizza. That way we wouldn't have to read through every forum post twice a day to guess the status of our cars.
...wouldn't have to read through every forum post twice a day to guess the status of our cars.
And where's the fun in that?
Seriously, I'd like that too.
How about live web cams on the line so in addition to reading the forum twice a day you can sit there and watch your car allll day LONG.
I'm not sure where to add this piece of information but I think this thread is the right place...
I was at the Santana Row Showroom last night and met 4 NEW Customer Vehicle DELIVERY SPECIALISTS. They have all been recently hired (like in the past 2 weeks) and were being "trained" a the SR showroom and at the factory!!! Probably being introduced to how to deal with customers and the equipment. They had already been in a week of training at the Fremont Factory! The one I spent time with is up here from LA and will be "delivering vehicles to SoCal".
Tesla is definitely ramping up headcount for deliveries!!!!
Of course, Alex (Store Manager and the guy who sold me on becoming a Model S Sig customer) still doesn't know when deliveries will start in earnest BUT; training delivery specialists has officially begun!
It sure seems like Tesla is getting close to delivering Model S in numbers greater than 1 per day!!!
I finalized my paperwork and order after the Test Drive LA event (first week of July) and I was told by my delivery rep that production would be ramping up from 1 car per day to 5 cars per day during the month of July. I assume they are only producing cars M-F, but don't know that for sure. He also said production was actually ahead of schedule (which doesn't mean much to me except that it sounds as though things are going according to plan). As of now my estimated delivery date is in October. I don't remember my original Sig Reservation number, but I think it was #619 (+/-).
I don't know that any "promises" have been made, as suggested by some, however, I am under the impression that Tesla does have a goal of producing 5,000 model S "production" cars (ie customer orders of signature or standard variations) during 2011.
As pilotSteve suggested (and based on the comment from my delivery rep) I agree that production is likely to ramp up exponentially (see example schedule below).
So, working within these parameters I would venture to guess the following "broadbrush" production schedule goals to put things in perspective:
June produced 25 cars????? (makes for a round number total below)
July average 5 cars per day (21 working days) 105 cars produced
August average 10 cars per day (23 working days) 230 cars produced
September average 20 cars per day (19 working days) 380 cars produced
October average 40 cars per day (23 working days) 920 cars produced
November average 80 cars per day (20 working days) 1,600 cars produced
December average 80 cars per day (18 working days) 1,440 cars produced
That gets Tesla to an approximate 4,700 cars, which is close to the implied goal of 5,000 by year end. Obviously if they are able to ramp up production even faster through the August-October timeframe then they can easily reach the "5,000" number, but the most important thing at this point is getting the production process dialed in!
@sudre I was thinking the same thing! Live webcams would be awesome!
@jrabena This would be a cool app.
The status on My Garage just changed from "reserved" to "the Tesla Factory is building your Model S!"
The wait is excruciating, and reminds me so much of being a kid at Christmas. As much as I really want the car right now, I am enjoying this feeling of intense excitement--haven't had it in years!
epley... what's your sig#
Noted my garage status changed as well. I'm sig#934
Kelly, your numbers thru September is consistent with my delivery stated to be September assuming about 120 "specials" being built prior to Sigs. My Sig number is #567. So, totaling up thru September, that puts me at the end of September, which is what I had expected ever since configuring and prelim MVPA signing.
BTW, I just check my status on the TM website and it now states:
"The Tesla Factory is building your Model S Signature Performance".
I'm Sig #567.
We have VINs! In the GreenCar report here: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1077833_2012-tesla-model-s-first-dri... on p.3 it mentions "serial numbers 106, 108, 111, and 116".
Anyone attending the Amped events could/should look down a the doorsill for us, too.
@BrianH - As noted @ TMC, those aren't VINs. The serial numbers are useful for some things, but they're not VINs. :(
the serial# corresponds to the last digits of the VIN, and tells us what we want to know: how many have been made, AFAICT. No?
It tells us some of what we want to know, yes.
But some of us are interested in the full VINs.
More details here:http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7638-Decoding-Tesla-Model-...
Anyhow, at least 116 have been made.
"Anyhow, at least 116 have been made."
Actually, we don't know that for sure.
There was word from a Tesla rep that 1xx are marketing vehicles, which suggests they likely skipped some numbers between #50 (highest VIN we've seen) and #106 (lowest reported serial #).
Yes, that could be. All these were being reviewed by gcr.
105, 106, 108, 111, 116 are in NY get Amp envent.
Black 114 and Sig red 115 at Portland, OR this weekend.