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Model S Reservation Tally

Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

Whity Whiteman | July 5, 2012

is it possible, that we got a big increase within the last days?
I count more or less 50 Cars a day, or am I blind?

jerry3 | July 5, 2012

There is a comment on the TMC forum that the LA store got 50 reservations over Get Amped weekend. Once there are a number of cars in the hands of real owners, the number should increase even more. I believe that a lot of people are waiting to see that it's a real car (e.g. there are hundreds or thousands delivered).

Thumper | July 5, 2012

Reservations as of June 25 were 11,653. Today they are 12,647. That is 110 per day for the last 9 days. Should reservations continue at this rate, they now exceed daily production capacity for one shift 5 days per week of 80 cars per day. There would also be 19,525 reservations by the end of the year meaning that the entire 2013 production would be sold by the end of the year!

jerry3 | July 5, 2012

If that happens, there is plenty of space in the factory to expand. A second shift could also be added. I don't think I'd want to add a third shift because of all the problems associated with a third shift.

Brian H | July 5, 2012

Whity Whiteman | July 5, 2012 new
is it possible, that we got a big increase within the last days?
I count more or less 50 Cars a day, or am I blind?

170 change in 2 days, but that includes a big catch-up on the EU/Asia P count.

Brian H | July 5, 2012

Projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end July 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

July 31 (14,240*1,223)/1,196 = 14,561
Dec. 31 (14,240*1,376)/1,196 = 16,683

:)

Brian H | July 5, 2012

Thumper | July 5, 2012
Reservations as of June 25 were 11,653. Today they are 12,647. That is 110 per day for the last 9 days. Should reservations continue at this rate, they now exceed daily production capacity for one shift 5 days per week of 80 cars per day. There would also be 19,525 reservations by the end of the year meaning that the entire 2013 production would be sold by the end of the year!

That may be somewhat more likely than the "long-term" averages in my projections. The pattern of reservations this summer will be fascinating to watch!

It should be remembered, too, that the "count" is often seriously lagged as it takes time for new purchasers to "find" the forums and provide a #.

Timo | July 6, 2012

@Thumper, that's good news if that is correct. It shows that Model S has big enough market base to be successful car in future too, and not just couple of rich greenheads buying BEV because they can and want to be green. I was a bit concerned about the price of the 85kWh model, didn't expect it to go to $100k+ with options.

Ad van der Meer | July 7, 2012

P10151 reported on 7/7 on the TMC forum: bit.ly/PtjhGc

michiganmodels | July 8, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,151 (July 7, 2012)

Canada
S 132 (May 30, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,034 (July 4, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Gross Total: 14,319 - July 7, 2012

Net Total: 12,726 - July 7, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Brian H | July 8, 2012

As of July 7, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end July 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

July 31 (14,319*1,223)/1,199 = 14,606
Dec. 31 (14,319*1,376)/1,199 = 16,433

:|

Brian H | July 8, 2012

michigan, is there any total for the Founders' series? Is that part of SSL?

David M. | July 8, 2012

This is unreal, 1,300 Model S reservations in the past 30 days! I was figuring that Tesla would be averaging about 1,000 reservations per month for the remainder of 2012, if the reviews were good, and once cars hit the road. I think I might have underestimated.

This flies in the face of all the naysayers who keep saying that deposits will drop off, now that all of the early adopters have shown up. Maybe that was wishful thinking for those shorting the stock.

My gut tells me that by the end of 2012, Tesla will be taking roughly 1,600 new reservations per month. That's the same number they hope to deliver to customers each month (once they are fully ramped up). Unless Tesla adds a second shift, they will be maintaining their one year backlog on Model S reservations.

Volker.Berlin | July 8, 2012

Unless Tesla adds a second shift, they will be maintaining their one year backlog on Model S reservations.

I hope they don't add a second shift. Maintaining a one-year backlog of reservations will do a lot for the Model S' used car value... :-)

michiganmodels | July 8, 2012

@Brian H - I do not know the exact number of Founders. I've heard numbers ranging from 10 to 30 Founder cars. I do know it's not part of the SSL.

I'd imagine we'll find out how many Founders were sold on the Q2 earnings call.

BYT | July 8, 2012

When is the Q2 conference call?

Sudre_ | July 8, 2012

Testing something. This should be an image charting reservations based on the gross totals above. There does appear to be a small surge.

Sudre_ | July 8, 2012

last try

michiganmodels | July 8, 2012

@BYT - The exact date has yet to be announced. But it is typically 5 or 6 weeks following the last day of the quarter. So, I'd imagine the 2nd week in August (based on their previous earnings call, Wednesday August 8th would be an educated guess).

BYT | July 8, 2012

Thanks!

JoeFee | July 8, 2012

FWIW Next earnings call on http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA

is July 29th

michiganmodels | July 8, 2012

@joeflorelli - July 29th is a Sunday. That is Yahoo's computer generated estimate. Yahoo also has Tesla's earning call on Monday July 30: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20120730.html

There will be a press release announcing the date/time either this week or next.

michiganmodels | July 9, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,160 (July 7, 2012)

Canada
S 132 (May 30, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,034 (July 4, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Gross Total: 14,328 - July 7, 2012

Net Total: 12,735 - July 7, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Ad van der Meer | July 10, 2012

#10,267

July 9, 2012
Los Angeles
General production

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/5747-Model-S-Reservation-a...

michiganmodels | July 10, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,267 (July 9, 2012)

Canada
S 132 (May 30, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,034 (July 4, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Gross Total: 14,435- July 9, 2012

Net Total: 12,842 - July 9, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Brian H | July 10, 2012

As of July 9, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end July 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

July 31 (14,435*1,223)/1,202 = 14,687
Dec. 31 (14,435*1,376)/1,202 = 16,524

:)

Brian H | July 10, 2012

Comment re projection:
Over the whole reservation period, the rate is 12/day. Since the event on June 22, it's been more like 80/day. That extrapolates to about 16,200 by month-end, and 28,400 by year-end! We'll see if that rate holds up ...

That would mean, btw, that as of Dec. 31 more than all of 2013's projected output would be pre-sold!

Brian H | July 10, 2012

Sudre_ | July 8, 2012
Testing something. This should be an image charting reservations based on the gross totals above. There does appear to be a small surge.

Sudre, not small. The slope of the line is about 5X higher! The rate has really begun to jump.

JoeFee | July 11, 2012

@michiganmodels

Good catch on the date ... Fidelity puts estimate at Weds Aug 1st but TM has not set earnings call date yet (as you point out) ... it will be interesting to see what happens to the next "net reservation #". Thanks again for keeping this data going!

Joe F

CurrieG | July 13, 2012

Just upgraded my Canadian Model S from Production P252 => Signature S146!

Looking for a Nov./12 delivery

michiganmodels | July 13, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,267 (July 9, 2012)

Canada
S 146 (July 13, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,034 (July 4, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 14,469- July 13, 2012

Net Total: 12,876 - July 13, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Brian H | July 13, 2012

As of July 13, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end July 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

July 31 (14,469*1,223)/1,206 = 14,672
Dec. 31 (14,469*1,376)/1,206 = 16,509

:( ↓

kubisf | July 14, 2012

On this map http://www.zeemaps.com/map?group=295135, I found a P1068 (EU) resevation in Almere, Flevoland, Netherlands.

michiganmodels | July 14, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,267 (July 9, 2012)

Canada
S 146 (July 13, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,068 (July 13, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 14,503- July 13, 2012

Net Total: 12,910 - July 13, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Brian H | July 14, 2012

As of July 13, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end July 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

July 31 (14,503*1,223)/1,206 = 14,707
Dec. 31 (14,503*1,376)/1,206 = 16,547

:) ↑

Sudre_ | July 15, 2012
Brian H | July 16, 2012

Sudre;
Note that the adjustments for July 13 (from July 9) are all (rather lagged) updates of foreign markets. No US info for those 4 days is in yet. You may need to rejig that date a couple of times!

michiganmodels | July 17, 2012

Bumping to the top...

Brian H | July 17, 2012

michigan, we need a "mole". Someone on the inside who leaks a recent US P# from time to time. ;)

michiganmodels | July 17, 2012

@Brian H - Agreed.

jkirkebo | July 18, 2012

I just got my reservation number. EU P #1088.

Brian H | July 18, 2012

jkirkebo;
Interesting that the Delivery Event seems to have had a fairly significant impact in Europe. Or is that just an illusion?

jkirkebo | July 18, 2012

The delivery event didn't mean anything to me, what was really interesting was all the reviews from reservation holders doing the test drives.

Reservations seem to be running about 4 per day here now, not too bad but not really significant compared to the US either.

Brian H | July 18, 2012

jkirkbow;
Yes, of course the feedback is what makes it "real", but I'd think the knowledge that actual hardware is hitting the road is part of it too.

michiganmodels | July 19, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,349 (July 16, 2012)

Canada
S 146 (July 13, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,088 (July 19, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 14,605- July 19, 2012

Net Total: 13,012 - July 19, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Brian H | July 19, 2012

As of July 19, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end July 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

July 31 (14,605*1,223)/1,212 = 14,737
Dec. 31 (14,605*1,376)/1,212 = 16,581

:) ↑

Brian H | July 19, 2012

BTW, not to go too far OT, but I rough-calc about $350 million in payments (beyond original deposits) from customers taking deliveries this year.

And at least $1.25 bn next year.

michiganmodels | July 20, 2012

Bumping to the top.

jkirkebo | July 22, 2012
michiganmodels | July 22, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-0

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 1,246 (June 29, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 10,608 (July 20, 2012)

Canada
S 146 (July 13, 2012)
P 353 (July 2, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,088 (July 19, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)
P 35 (January 31, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 52 (July 2, 2012)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 14,864- July 20, 2012

Net Total: 13,271 - July 20, 2012*

* = Net Total subtracts known Signature cancellations/downgrades and 1,593 unit differential from 2012 Q1 earnings call
S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

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