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Model X is basically sold out for 2015

Model X is basically sold out for 2015

Musk on the model X production: “We’ve basically sold out next year’s production…It’s somewhere in the, I don’t know, 15,000ish range maybe 20,000ish. It’s difficult to say exactly when.”

Good thing I got my reservation months ago (#9573).

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3790707205001/elon-musk-will-be-able-to-a...

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3790635789001/elon-musk-on-the-next-step-...

philiparnason | September 18, 2014

Nice find thanks for posting. With such a huge backlog it will be interesting to see what the premium will be for car flippers. I'm still hoping I get mine before the end of 2014 being a S#21x.

Philip

Brian H | September 18, 2014

By Jan., it'll be sold out till ... ?? 2017?? Depends on weekly prd cap. 2,000/wk might do it, if it gets there soon enough.

sg021.pa.us | September 19, 2014

A bit of a bummer as I was really hoping to have one by the end of 2015. Interestingly the confirmation page (I just put in a deposit) still says deliveries will begin in 2014 and that I should receive mine in 2015. Wishful thinking / haven't updated the page lately I'm sure.

georgehawley.fl.us | September 19, 2014

And it's only the middle of September. When Beta sightings start showing up and more is known about the X, assuming that it lives up to Elon's aspirations, the reservation rate will probably go off the charts. If you think you might want one by maybe year end 2015, best to reserve now, I think, just to get a place in line.

sg021.pa.us | September 19, 2014

Yes, my thinking entirely. I feel like they're at the cusp of an explosion in reservations, relatively speaking. I would have liked to have a full spec sheet before reserving, but it was becoming clear I couldn't do that and expect to have the X anytime soon.

I did go test drive an S, which of course the testers are all P85s. God they are so fast, and the screen looks even larger when you're actually in the driver's seat! Another amazing things is that even though I was driving very casually, people just move over and get out of your way like I never experienced before. Not sure if intimidated or just want to see the car.

Brian H | September 19, 2014

Both?

kiransingiri | September 19, 2014

I reserved 10 days ago on 9/9 and my #13088, I am hoping I will get one in 2015 and not have to wait till 2016

sg021 just curious what s# did you get when you deposited today?

sg021.pa.us | September 19, 2014

13340.

I am still crossing my fingers

sg021.pa.us | September 19, 2014

for 2015. (Would be nice if there was an edit feature)

kiransingiri | September 19, 2014

oh ok not too far from me :)Thanks

mrjedistud | September 19, 2014

Hey guys, I just signed up and got 13,333. The guy at the store said that the number actually went down. It seems that Tesla is actively trying to get model X preorderers to switch to the model S for immediate sale. The 20,000 order amount that Elom refers to must be world wide. US is still in the 13,000 range.

mdemetri | September 19, 2014

The 15-20K number is world wide (NA, europe, asia), but don't forget the Sig's add another ~1200 to the US number. The ~13K is just regular production. So the total US number is ~14.5K.

Etzy | September 22, 2014

As a point of interest, I ordered my MS on December 1, 2012 and was given a 9 month delivery estimate. The car was delivered April 25, 2013 and would have come 60 days earlier except for the fact that I was waiting for "multi-coat red" which they didn't start shipping until late March 2013.

My reservation number was 15, 400 ish and my vin is 9050. Since there were higher reservation number holders who jumped in front of me because they didn't want MC Red, that means that something like 40% or more of the reservation holders backed out when they were told to "finalize" their order (and thus their deposit becomes non refundable).

I will bet that about the same percentage of MX res holders will disappear and anyone whose reservation number is under 15,000 will get their MX within 6 months of first production deliveries - IF they "finalize" as soon as Tesla invites them to do so.

NumberOne | September 22, 2014

Actually, many reservations were pushed back because they were for 60's. People who ordered 85's were given priority. The reason for the long delivery estimate was the fact that may people ordering a 60 kWh Model S actually had to wait that long. To my knowledge, all of the sigs are 85. Of course I may be wrong, but I kind of remember that being the case with the MS.

vandacca | September 22, 2014

@O EMSHN, a correction on your post. When asked to "finalize" your order, you do not loose your deposit. I know, because when my Model-S number came up, I asked for a refund of my deposit because I preferred to wait for the Model-X (I already had put down a deposit on the Model-X #008 in Canada). Mind you at the time, the Model-X was scheduled to be released only a year later, around April 2014. Two days after I got my deposit back, Tesla announced that they were delaying the Model-X roll-out by a year, which was quite the "sucker punch to the stomach". Oh well, I still think it was the right decision to wait for a more appropriate vehicle.

--Dan

mdemetri | September 22, 2014

@O EMSHN - I had a similar experience with my P85: Deposit Nov 25, 2012 (res# ~14,500) and told 9 months to delivery, but got the car March 10, 2013 (and that delivery was delayed a month by me). However, because I was a P85, I jumped over many 60's, 85's, 40's, multi-coat-red and non-air suspension with much earlier reservation numbers. So while there were likely dropouts, I am not sure it was 40%.

Model X may also have dropouts, but I think this will be much less than with the Model S. Tesla has proven itself with the Model S and there will be more confidence by reservation holders to keep the reservation this time around.

Brian H | September 22, 2014

The April delivery date made me think of Sergei Brin's Batgirlcar surprise on Apr. 1. Every year, TM should deliver on that date 10 randomly selected copies of that pink-wrapped car with big black fins! Competitive wishful thinking hoping for one would generate mega-millions of free publicity, Elon's fave!

Brian H | September 22, 2014

Edit: mega-million$ worth of ...

Brian H | September 22, 2014

I bet the wrap companies would do it free (including later removal), too.

runonmd1 | September 23, 2014

"...you do not loose your deposit."

Loose is the opposite of tight. "Lose" is the word you're seeking.

Brian H | September 23, 2014

Yeah, loose as a goose, and if you snooze you lose. English is wired weird. ;}

dutseal168 | September 29, 2014

My number is 6219 and I called Tesla and talked to someone. He said mine will be ready approximately Fall of 2015. I was hoping I could have it by January 2015..Bummer.

At least I'm already in line :)

Can't hardly wait.

jackylew99 | September 29, 2014

im a 12k-ish, do i have to wait until early 2016?

NumberOne | September 29, 2014

There is no telling how long we will wait, but the Model X production version is highly likely to be at the 2015 NAIAS, especially since Elon Musk will be one of the featured speakers at the Automotive News World Congress, Jan 13-14, also held in Detroit. Since Tesla will likely produce about 1000 Model X cars per week, the difference between 6219 a and 1200 is less than two months, so Fall 2015 is still possible.

georgehawley.fl.us | September 30, 2014

Some thoughts about Tesla and the meaning of an order or reservation sequence number:
1. Tesla, like all American companies is judged in part by the stock market by the number of vehicles delivered in a quarter for better or for worse. Extra weighting is placed on the ability to meet or exceed targets.
2. Let's say x% of orders are for RHD and 100-x% for LHD. Production capacity must be allocated accordingly. this may not align precisely with sequence numbers.
3. Let's assume that it takes a week to get a car from Fremont to a west coast customer, 2 weeks to the Midwest, 3 weeks to the east coast, 5 weeks to Europe and 4 weeks to China. An order from China received on the same day as an order from CA might begin getting built 3 weeks before the CA order in order to deliver as many cars as possible in the quarter. There's also the granularity of container ships to consider. Cars pile up on the dock waiting for the next ship to get as many on the ship as possible.

This sort of logistical puzzle may lead to delays in receiving cars in CA for example toward the end of a quarter, front loading the production lines with more distant delivery requirements.

This is all speculation but, if it makes any sense at all, it creates extra uncertainty on the timing of receiving a Model X despite the reservation number. Any thoughts on this?

NumberOne | October 1, 2014

Elon has stated that just as with the Model S, deliveries for the Model X will begin in California. The reason for this is the fact that the factory is there, and since it is early in the production run, it would be easier to correct problems than if the cars were shipped far away initially. I would guess that at least the first 1,000 (most of which are in CA anyway) will be delivered in CA. More than likely, the next 5,000 will be delivered to US reservation holders before deliveries to other countries begin.

On the bright side, we are talking about Model X, so this time the difference will should not be more than a few months from the time the first Signature deliveries are made.

David Trushin | October 1, 2014

Hate to cast a pall on the party, but historically, the model s beta was unveiled 8 months before the first deliveries. Even if one argues that the model x doesn't need that kind of lead time, i don't see deliveries starting until second half of 15. I hope i'm wrong because i'm not selling my stock.

sg021.pa.us | October 2, 2014

If the beta shows up around the turn of the year and you accept the argument that it doesn't need as much lead time, wouldn't that put initial deliveries potentially in Q2 2015?

David Trushin | October 2, 2014

The schedule has been slipping 6 months every 6 months for the past 18 months. I'm not sure I buy into the "don't release it until it's perfect" argument.

sg021.pa.us | October 2, 2014

On that point I will agree. For reasons that are not completely transparent to the public the X has seen a large number of delays. As of this moment I think Q2 seems feasible, but obviously Elon can simply say it is being pushed back at any moment.

jjs | October 2, 2014

I'm with David. Deliveries 2nd 1/2 of 2015.

vandacca | October 2, 2014

I'm okay with this extra delay. The latest Model-S has a number of new features like Lane Departure Warning, side-sensors, etc. I'm hoping that the X will have forward facing cameras/radar as well for more autonomous driving features. Maybe the delay will allow these new features to be implemented in every Model-X.

--Dan

Brian H | October 2, 2014

At one point he suggested too many people were buying the S to permit any Xs to be made. ;)

Red Sage ca us | October 3, 2014

sg021 said, "For reasons that are not completely transparent to the public the X has seen a large number of delays."

I think it is not only transparent, but has been stated many times: All of Tesla Motors production capacity to date has been taken up the the Tesla Model S. It's really as simple as that. Tesla thought that at best, they might build between 15,000 to 20,000 vehicles in 2013, including the beginning production of the Model X. It became obvious that they would exceed that production with Model S alone that year, so the Model X was pushed back.

Before the end of 2013, Tesla asked Panasonic to increase the shipment of battery cells to Fremont. Initially, Panasonic said, "No." It took them another three months before they finally agreed to an increase, but on a lower scale than Tesla had asked originally. Tesla was able to increase production at Fremont beginning in Quarter 3 2014 in anticipation of receiving higher quantities of battery cells in Quarter 4 2014.

It wasn't until July 2014 that Panasonic formally agreed to support the Gigafactory. Tesla had hoped they would make that commitment as early as February 2014 instead. I think that Panasonic's early reluctance to make what is in their corporate culture a rather risky venture, has delayed Tesla's plans. Luckily, it seems that Panasonic is finally completely on board and there will be no further throttling of battery cell supplies.

It seems rather clear that the Model X Beta unveiling will be next week. I still believe that Tesla will surprise at least a small handful of people with their Model X deliveries by Christmas of this year. If production begins slowly in mid-January, at about 100 Model X per week, then 200 per week in February, 400 per week in March, 800 per week in April, then full production will certainly be possible before the end of Quarter 2 2015.

georgehawley.fl.us | October 3, 2014

Sorry, Red Sage.
Not buying the argument that there were so many orders for Model S that Tesla delayed the Model X because they didn't need it. I prefer to believe Mr. Musk who has repeatedly said how "bloody hard" the Model X has been to do right and how Tesla won't manufacture it until it is "an amazing car that blows people away". (see segment of Tesla 2014 annual meeting beginning at 19 minutes, 45 seconds)
I think that all wheel drive presents a software development challenge to control and coordinate the front and rear drive units. The FW doors have been cited as a major design challenge.
I think they slipped the Model X production schedule because their design team hasn't met their development milestones. The R&D expense line has been accelerating and the MX may be one reason.

Fortunately, the Model S has been so successful that the company has been able to run flat out just to address the demand for the car and the infrastructure to support it.

Whatever the reason, it is what it is and I (among a growing throng) will be delighted if Tesla is able produce a commercial version of the MX by year end as you plausibly suggest.

David Trushin | October 3, 2014

Looking at the patent filing for awd, it is truly an amazing invention. Probably is the reason for the delay.

Gert van Veen | October 4, 2014

Red sage may be right anyway. There is no reason to accelerate the development as long as the production lines are full.

barrykmd | October 4, 2014

I believe the delay is related to issues with the albatross wing doors.

jjs | October 4, 2014

OK. It may have been used before, but "albatross wing doors" is funny. I guess the could also be called "gullable wing doors"?

Given Tesla's track record so far. The doors will probably be awesome. But still fun to poke a little fun at the eclectic doors. Or was that electric doors?

dortor | October 4, 2014

the doors will be awesome - but no amount of design can overcome the fact that the doors open up rather than out - doors that open up are awkward and there is centuries of building design (low ceilings) and parking lot design that do not favor doors opening in that direction.

not to mention the fact that the roof is no longer storage space…

the door mechanism and mechanical design will be awesome and impeccable…

but there are certain immutable facts that make the albatross door design unworkable with significant "cons" vs. only a limited number of "pros"…

the doors are a mistake and will mar an otherwise excellent entry and effort by Tesla.

that's my opinion - it's worth what you paid for it.

Gert van Veen | October 4, 2014

Weren't the doors another topic?
Until now, many are surprised by the creativity of the tesla-designers. The production is, until far in 2016, already sold.
I suppose they have solved the problems. Looking forward to the ninth.

sg021.pa.us | October 4, 2014

Red Sage - I had heard the capacity thing but also as georgeHawley mentioned about the design challenges. My opinion is both are related in some way as ample MS demand bought them extra time to not punt on MX features just for the sake of getting it out the door. I don't really know for sure and that's why it'd be nice if it had been more explicitly stated. I think most people would take an extra year of waiting if it was the difference between rushing it out while doing software patches (maybe even HW fixes) along the way or just nailing it on the first go around.

If the MX was good to go a year ago and it was purely a preference to catch up on MS orders for another year, then that would be a bit shady to me since they've been taking 5K and 40k deposits on the MX the whole time. I mean there's $100M+ in the pot by now, right?

I guess the whole thing is a moot point anyway as the announcement of the X seems eminent.

Brian H | October 4, 2014

sg021;
Jeez, you made it right to the last word!

imminent

jjs | October 4, 2014

@sg021 Upon making an error is spelling or usage you can expect Brian, our eminent spell checker, to be imminent with his correction.

sg021.pa.us | October 4, 2014

One of the many reasons my eminence is not imminent

jjs | October 4, 2014

@sg021 Nice!

Red Sage ca us | October 4, 2014

Maybe, if 60%-80% of those who bought the Model S in 2013 had opted for the 40 kWh version, things would have been different, and the Model X could have been released sooner.

Pungoteague_Dave is fond of pointing out how much better, in visible quality, the cars coming off the Fremont line are today than the early ones. By extension, it is likely that the Tesla Model X that you end up getting will be far better than what would have been delivered in 2013. Not just 'the goodies', but the fit, finish, and reliability of the vehicles overall will be tremendously, demonstrably better.

Jonathangarner | October 14, 2014

Made a reservation last week, #13908.

Brian H | October 18, 2014

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley: "We expect the Model X to go dynamite fishing in the global premium SUV segment."
Which SUVs will be the first to float belly-up? >:p

Red Sage ca us | October 18, 2014

Brian H: Hmmm... The Porsche Cayenne Turbo will have some serious issues finding buyers in Los Angeles County once the Tesla Model X is available.

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