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New battery pack size coming down the pipe.

New battery pack size coming down the pipe.

I just got a heads up from a friend that is close to a Tesla exec that they have a 130 kWh battery pack being used in his car.

So I guess it's going to be 75 - 100 - 130 pretty soon.

That's will get some good range.

Doublelift | June 14, 2017

Well, on Feb 7, 2017, Elon tweeted "No plans to take X, S (or 3) above 100 kWh. Semi necessarily and pickup truck maybe will go above."

dortor | June 14, 2017

Elon will change his mind - but yeah - he has previously stated 100 kwh is the size for now - also we need to consider with the 3 coming online they really won't want to be diverting more kWh of LiOn capacity into the "low volume" S/X production…

I'm also guessing going above 100 kwh might involve some geometry changes to the actual pack - if they can't upgrade the density.

I wouldn't be surprised if Elon gets restless and upgrades, but he has stated we're at a stable point for the time being.

inconel | June 14, 2017

Can I slow Tesla current sales if I start rumors of impending significant updates?

ccrulesn | June 14, 2017

I think Musk is correct when said 100kwh for now no plans for larger battery pack. I think come July they will finally start to use the 2170 battery cells in the Model S/X and raise the maximum range between 20 to 30 percent. If its 30% that would mean the Model S range will increase to 435 miles. Musk has said many times the Model S will always get the best tech first, so how could he launch a cheaper vehicle that has more efficient battery cells than the Model S?

dchuck | June 14, 2017

@ccrulesn - Your probably right about the new 2170 cells increasing the range, but don't you think they are a little busy with the model 3 to release a new battery pack for the S/X?

My bet for the earliest date would be in September along with the Semi announcement and SuperCharger V3. That gives them 3 months to get the Model 3 production lines up and running before changing the configuration of the S/X production lines.

More likely would be sometime next year.

tes-s | June 14, 2017

100kWh will definitely be the largest battery pack they make for the S or X, until they make a larger one.

JayInJapan | June 14, 2017

+30% is just too good to be true.

krissu | June 15, 2017

For sure they shall try to make battery out of 2170 cells compatible with present cars. Battery for M3 using 2170 cells is already on road. My guess would be that it's not about beeing able to produce the battery for S with 2170 cells, but setting the standards and faster charging for it.

bert_troubleyn | June 15, 2017

Technically speaking, 100 kWh is 100 kWh. The type of battery cannot influence the range if the storing capacity is identical. For more range, you either have to increase battery capacity (so more than 100 kWh) or increase the efficiency of the rest of the car. A 48 Volt on-board power system could be an option (much more efficient than the 12V of today), but would be hugely expensive because all other on-board systems would have to be adapted.

Faster charging might be possible with the new 2170 cells. On the other hand, the current batteries prove to be very reliable and barely suffer from any range loss over time. For the new cells, it's still wait and see...

EmperorTytus | June 15, 2017

Bert, the new battery will have the same storage capacity at a lower weight, thereby affecting range.

Silver2K | June 15, 2017

their past increase intervals suggests 130 will not happen on the next upgrade. If I were a guessing man, 110 would be next. it took them 4 years to get from 85 to 100

drklain | June 15, 2017

There is also the minor issue of Tesla's contractual obligation to purchase the 18670 batteries from Panasonic. We know those batteries aren't going into the Model 3, Powerwall or Powerpacks, so they have to go into Model S and X cars. I expect that Tesla will ultimately convert everything over to 2170, Gigafactory-produced batteries but that won't happen until they are approaching the end of the 18670 battery buy...call it 2019 or 2020.

I remain confused by all the people who insist that the X and S have to get 2170 batteries now because the model 3 is getting them....or the statements that the 2170 batteries are that much batter than 18670 batteries. The form factor is different, there is speculation that the chemistry is different and somewhat improved but all we know for sure, is that production of those batteries is cheaper than the 18670s. The people claiming the S and X have to get them now remind me of all the people who maintained that the Model 3 HAD to have a HUD...and that the S and X would be getting them this Spring to ensure they got a HUD before the Model 3 came out...

David N | June 15, 2017

I just got a heads up from a friend that is close to a Tesla exec .......
Sounds similar to, " I have a friend of a friend who I thought I heard someone say they might have heard him say that maybe, perhaps.............

Elon said the 100 Battery pack is the max for awhile. I'll go w Elon.

reed_lewis | June 15, 2017

@drklain The current battery in the cars now is the 18650. And I agree with you on the newer 2170 battery. It might be better, but how much better will it be in the long run? And I submit that most people really could not care less about the battery in their car. They care that the car runs and supplies the range and speed that they expect.

RonaldA | June 15, 2017

A range increase to 350 or higher would result in me quickly upgrading my ModelS P85 to a new Model S with the increased range. I'm sorry 315 or 335 is nice but I'll wait a bit longer. At 35-400 miles most of my long distance drives could be done with 1-2 supercharger stops instead of 3-4.

stockbandit91 | June 15, 2017

I think the 2170 makes it into the S/X with an announcement in September during the Truck unveil. We will also get supercharger V3 info at that time. Tesla will not be delivering many, if any 3s to non-employees by Sept.

Faster charging/ increased range available immediately for S/X orders to boost Q4 demand. Then in Q1 they can boost sales by encouraging S/X orders to get the last full $7500 tax credit, by Q2 2018 the 3 ramp will be high enough to create the cash for Tesla to spend on expansion and keep investors happy.

redacted | June 15, 2017

Pike, please. Coming down the pipe is quite unsanitary.

rxlawdude | June 15, 2017

"At 35-400 miles most of my long distance drives could be done with 1-2 supercharger stops instead of 3-4." Yes, but since the battery is higher capacity, wouldn't those 1-2 stops take much longer than before?

bishoppeak | June 15, 2017

@rxlawdude: Stop making sense, you're spoiling the party!

rxlawdude | June 15, 2017

@bishoppeak: :-)

SamO | June 15, 2017

@rxlawdude,

Every car takes 30-40 minutes for 80% charge.

60, 85, 90 and 100kWh packs.

Realure | June 15, 2017

They will need a bigger battery to compete with the new cars having 400 miles range coming online soon.

hoffmannjames | June 15, 2017

@reeler I am not aware of any EVs coming soon with 400 miles range or are you talking about ICE cars?

Doublelift | June 15, 2017

1-2 longer stops is better for me. When I travel long distance, I count the charging time jfrom exit ramp back to on ramp, because that's the added time to my drive, and a number of SCs in the east and south US take several minutes (or more, Mobile for example from I10). So my total charging time would be much less if I could cut the stops in half.

Silver2K | June 15, 2017

I believe Mercedes mentioned a 400 mile range for their SUV, but what good is it without a charging network?

BigD0g | June 15, 2017

+1 Silver, nobody seems to understand the "major" benefit of Tesla is the network, and of course OTA updates.

rxlawdude | June 15, 2017

@SamO, but there is a limit to that. The total power from the SpC, as we know, seems to be about 140kW, shared between two stalls. Smaller batteries charge with less power, and the 100 would max out the SpC.

We're talking bigger batteries here by up to 30%. If the SpC are at their max today, how exactly would they charge 130kWh batteries as fast as 85kWh batteries? What am I missing?

SamO | June 15, 2017

You are missing Charging ramp-down. A larger battery can accept max charge for longer.

rxlawdude | June 15, 2017

But a larger battery needs more time at max charge rates than smaller batteries. :-) Seriously, bigger batteries are better overall because (a) less range anxiety, and (b) can more easily be kept at optimal charge levels.

SamO | June 15, 2017

Nope. I'll let Bighorn follow up with exact details but 40 minutes at 140kW allows for a 94kWh "fill up" for an S130. Much more than the 40kWh I can add in that same period in my S60.

SamO | June 15, 2017

94kWh will net about 280 miles vs 40kWh will net ~150 miles.

SUN 2 DRV | June 15, 2017

SamO is right. A larger battery enables a higher charge value for a longer time, and the range added is the integral of that charge. It comes down to "more area under the curve".

Realure | June 15, 2017

Fisker and Faraday Future announced 400 mile range.

croman | June 15, 2017

Yes, and I've got a 600 mile battery coming. Its all worthless hype until you can buy it.

SbMD | June 15, 2017

I wouldn't be so confident about statements made by Faraday Future. Not sure if they will have much of a future.
http://jalopnik.com/inside-the-mess-at-faraday-future-that-drove-out-one...

Fisker just announced a switch from their highly touted next-gem graphene super capacitor now to Li batteries. Changing their battery tech drastically makes me wonder what they will ultimately may produce. I'll believe them when they produce something.
http://www.thedrive.com/sheetmetal/11565/fisker-emotion-ditches-supercap...

SbMD | June 15, 2017

next-gem -> next-gen

hoffmannjames | June 15, 2017

And Elon Musk said last year that Tesla had the capability of producing a 400 mile range car. I suspect it is a matter of economics, a 400 mi battery was not profitable last year but the cost has been going down. I would bet that Tesla will do it next year.

djmichaelmayhem | June 15, 2017

oh man, a 130 would be great! But I doubt it would come anytime soon, maybe in 5 years.

the new cell tech have a different chem that make them more dense is what I have read. If the density is greater, what does that actually do for the battery?

Does it increase it's output (KW) or does it sow the rate of discharge? Making it last longer?

not sure I totally have my head around that. different articles I read explain it differently.

TaoJones | June 15, 2017

The full tax credit will persist well into 2018.

Off ramp to on ramp time is interesting except that you'd have to net out the time to get to a preferred or at least nearest stanky fluids emporium. The stanky fluid in question being petrol.

I'm rapidly losing confidence in any forward-looking statements that Elon makes, but concur that increasing pack size for the S/X in the near term doesn't make a lot of sense.

If you really want something to speculate about, speculate about what the 115,000 line waiters will be offered to buy a Model 3. The complexity of that fairly simple thought begins when one considers that a number of those are international. Why would they configure and lock in when it will be half a year before they get their cars? At which point, presumably, AWD and other options will become available.

Included supercharging for the first year of original ownership would work. Just saying.

/hijack

Battery sizing options for the Model 3 would seem much more likely and wouldn't contradict Elon's... statement.

bp | June 16, 2017

S 100D's are reporting 90% charge around 305-309 rated miles and 100% charges around 344 rated miles.

We've taken several road trips 190 miles (one way) and 290 miles (one way), and for these shorter road trips, having the extra range allowed us to completely skip superchargers on the 190 mile trip and only stop at one SC on the 290 mile trip - and not have to be concerned about slowing down to stretch the charge.

But, for longer trips, once the initial charge is used, I expect we'll end up stopping at about the same number of chargers after the first stop, with the primary benefit of the larger battery pack being shorter charging times, since we'd likely be able to keep charging below 80%, except for overnight charges.

A 130 battery pack would increase the 90% charge to around 400 rated miles and 100% charge to 450 miles. This would increase the distance travelled on the initial charge, and in the case of our typical 290 mile trip, eliminate having to stop for any charging.

However... The humans in the car would likely want to stop sooner than 400 miles, so I'm not sure we'd actually benefit as much with a larger battery pack. We'd probably still stop after 3-4 hours of driving for a bathroom/snack break.

It's very likely Tesla would build a 130 battery pack with the new 2170 cells, at least for testing purposes.

Though that doesn't necessarily mean they plan to bring it to market. Other manufacturers are claiming they may have longer range, so, from an engineering standpoint, it would make a lot of sense for Tesla to at least build a prototype 130 pack so they'd be ready to introduce a larger pack, if needed, to compete.

However, from a business standpoint, it still makes sense to have 100 as the top battery pack. When they shift to the new 2170 cells, it should result in a lighter battery pack (possibly a small increase in performance) and lower cost. Especially when the US $7500 tax credit expires, lower cost battery packs could allow Tesla to lower their prices (or bundle additional standard features at the same price).

Another possibility is the timing of reduced charging times. If that requires a new battery pack design - Tesla could be building several different battery pack sizes to test out the faster charging. Until faster charging is implemented - would you really want to be behind a 130 battery pack S/X at a supercharger???

Realure | June 16, 2017

I agree in that 400 miles with 800V quick charging would be compelling. Porsche is rolling out a 800V battery so Tesla will have to do something like that to compete.

PatientFool | June 16, 2017

thats about what the existing 100's would be if they had 2170 cells given the density differences. makes a lot of sense that they'd eventually offer that for their flagship cars (S/X). but i would think something we'll not see until at least Q2 of next year.. although the cars are also going to get even heavier if they go that route..

Boonedocks | June 16, 2017

reeler | June 16, 2017
" ....Porsche is rolling out a 800V battery..."

Where is a link to anything 800V by Porsche being rolled out that is not vaporware.

StarKiller | June 16, 2017

Interesting

dortor | June 16, 2017

http://www.businessinsider.com/porsche-reveals-mission-e-all-electric-co...

and Porsche unlike Elon doesn't announce release dates that they typically miss - they have always stated 2019 for the mission E - and noted the 800 volt system in their initial announcement for "faster" charging - I agree it's not shipping yet - but I have more faith that Porsche will actually ship this car in about the time frame they have always indicated vs. Elon's excellent vision but flawed scheduling…

AmpedRealtor | June 16, 2017

I'm betting Model S/X get the new cells before Model 3. Why? Because Model S/X sales could potentially suffer. Who would want to buy a S/X with yesterday's battery technology after that newer technology ships in a car at half the price? Tesla may find itself with a lot of fence-sitters which will hurt sales of their highest margin, highest profit product.

s1 | June 17, 2017

They don't need to wait until the Panasonic contract is up to start offering a 130 using the 2170 batteries. They would offer it as a premium option (another 10 or 20k probably) but still use the Panasonic batteries in the 75 & 100s which will still probably outsell the 130s.

milesbb | June 17, 2017

I suspect the best battery technology will stay in the 18650 coming from Japan. Panasonic will want to do initial process development at home on smaller production runs. Work the bugs before moving the technology to the larger Nevada facility. This may be the reason for the reported contract requirement that the S&X continue to use the 18650 from Panasonic.

Because the 2170 is wider, fewer batteries will fit in the same battery pack foot print, even if the battery pack is made taller to accommodate the taller 2170. Although the 2170 is reported to have 30% more energy I would expect 16 % fewer batteries would fit in the existing S&X pack footprint.

TeslaTap.com | June 17, 2017

I wonder where Porsche will be charging those 800v cars. Perhaps if you ship your car to Germany they will charge it and return it to you a few months later? And will it be produced in volume or a compliance car? How about the cost? So little is known, they could ship one car in December 2019 for $4M and claim they met their deadline.

Now I do suspect Porsche will produce the car, but how much it will resemble the 2015 show car or hopeful specifications is yet to be determined. Considering it is the first EV, there could be some major hiccups along the way.

As for scheduling, the Mission E is more than twice as slow as Tesla to bring it to market as the Model 3.
- Model 3 shown March 2016, shipping August 2017 (17 months)
- Mission E shown September 2015, shipping 2019 (maybe) - best case Jan-2019, 40 months

I'd trust Tesla a lot more than Porsche. Considering the parent's company (VW) willingness to cheat and lie, it's going to take a lot more than vaporware vehicles to gain my trust again.

inconel | June 17, 2017

Porsche has also cheated on their diesel Cayenne SUV. I used to trust them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/06/10/dieselgate-2-0-por...

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