DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
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Thanks all for the new VINs. Chart is updated.
Looks like there was a dramatic reduction in VINs being assigned sometime in the middle of October. This could be for any of a number of reasons, such as:
• End of an effort to produce loaner vehicles
• Elimination or near-elimination of EU backlog
• Order cancellations / reduction in demand
• Something else I don't know about
Alternately, there could be something going on with the data itself that is making the estimates look like they saw a sudden decrease. I haven't heard of anything that might produce that kind of a reduction based solely on VIN assignment policies, but it's possible.
It looks like we're headed to a weekly VIN assignment rate of around the 550 vehicles per week that Musk said were being produced during the quarterly call last week. This long, downward-sloping region of the red dots plot (weekly VIN assignment rate) is the result of less high-rate data and more low-rate data being included in the 2-month window; as far as I can tell, the change was sudden, not gradual as the chart shows.
cfOH - I think there more is truth to your chart then you have confidence in. TM has simply run into steady state of cell supply. Before they had some extra inventory and could ramp up to 700, but that extra inventory is depleted and now it is hand to mouth. Elon's frustration was quite clear during Q3 cc. Bringing up the mega factory is also an indicator that he HAS to control the cell supply - solely relying on a coorporation where the battery business is 0.5% of the revenue is a recipe for disaster - coorporate goals/policies can change overnight.
Sooner or later, we must face the limitations of this forum. Once we get beyond the innovators, most people don't go online to brag about their car ownership. As Tesla buyers are more and more from the mainstream, fewer and fewer will join us here. I dread the day that happens. Life will be less exciting. But it is inevitable.
The good news is that when it happens, Tesla will be a booming success!
I will say it again and will always get negative feedback but I believe the vin numbers were pumped for the investment banks to make money from . Those banks who helped underwrite the Sr. notes in May and traded the bonds. This was kept up until the fires occurred and someone realized analysts were misconstruing vin numbers and helping manipulate the market. I hope that tesla only gives out vin numbers within one week of production, no matter what. Some say a vin is given out to help someone get insurance but that is not necessary.
Open request to Tesla. Give vin numbers out no earlier than two weeks prior to entering production. Everyone wins with transparency.
That's a mighty nice tin-foil hat you have there, bonaire. ;-)
You found a Founder! You're a star finder.
Craig....Going forward.....Can you see any correlation between VIN number assignment and production? Just curious as you know I am a big supporter when it comes to helping get people to post their VINs. Thanks
Delivery times are too fast for new buyers for battery supply limitations to be a current production issue. Lead times are long for Europe but that is for other reasons. Battery capacity may be crimping expansion to new markets and new store locations but they are building to order as fast as ever.
@Koz: As far as I am aware, lead times for P+ models are still fairly short (~4 weeks), but other configurations for NA delivery can take up to 8 weeks to produce and deliver, so there may be a slight effect on delivery lead times due to vendor capacity not quite keeping up with demand. That said, I do not think that is the most influential thing to explain the rather sudden drop in VIN assignment rates (if there was one).
@Benz - No clarification needed for me. I was asking if others might have been scared off from posting their VINs before they realized cfOH was providing a service, not scamming.
Plus, emails from Nigerian princes probably also have assurances that they will keep your personal information in confidence ;)
Well, if it is the case that P85+ only are pulled to the front of the line to maximize profit from limited cells they may be frustrating a large portion of their consumer base. I think it is more likely that color and other options dictate lead times and 4 weeks is about as quick as they can get. If so, the configuration dictates which run each slots into.
Making more 60 kWh cars would increase the units sold number and not eat up as many batteries. You know...they have a "battery shortage" going on ;-)
Rick..... Says 27562 on 11/8/13 with delivery 12/23/13 in SD.
With numbering like this, it appears there are nearly 3500-4000+ Vin #s given out ahead of production.
Apparently they use dead cells to keep battery weight constant. What if they run out?
27493 on 11/8/2013. Delivery date is 12/20/2013 in SD.
Delivery Dec. 10
Vin issued Nov. #27147
Maybe they already have lots of batches which still have to go into production for the few weeks ahead. Meaning that making batches is not a priority at the moment. And therefore they don't assign that many VIN's lately.
And when a number of batches will have been produced (in the coming weeks), then they will again start to make more batches for which they will assign more VIN's (at a higher frequency).
Chart updated. No new VINs posted in 5 days. What's up??
Later this week I'm going to start a new thread as I think this one has just become too daunting. Stay tuned.
Confirmed november 10
Expected delivery is december 21
I seriously doubt the EU backlog is anywhere close to getting processed through. There are tons of people with 2012/early 2013 orders that are far from production (and not being in production today effectively means no delivery in Q4 for EU cars). So the drop is not from processing through EU backlog. More likely a lot of EU backlog people got VINs assigned, but that had no material impact on the actual production process. It may well be that VIN is assigned when Tesla allocates the VIN number plate to your car details list ;) Who knows. But I have still my car sourcing parts and I ordered in September, another person ordered in May has the same (and we've confirmed that the cars haven't gotten even close to production yet). Our expected delivery is January.
11/13/13 (maybe a day or two earlier)
Vin: 26168 Nov 1
Delivery date confirmed as 12/7
Craig...Starting a new thread is probably a good idea. Thanks for keeping the chart up to date. I agree with the sentiment expressed here that lots of the assigned VINs are 'batched', especially the European deliveries.
I wonder if people would respond to two threads for VINs and you can have the same charts on each thread. One North America, one European. ????
PLEASE DO NOT POST ANY ADDITIONAL VINS HERE.
The new (active) thread is here:
I noticed that Tesla is still delivering European cars with VIN's in the 18000-19000 with mid to late November times. It looks like the stock was down again today. It's just another buying opportunity, I'm loading up again. It should be $350 by Christmas. More Tesla stock for my 401K, I should be able to retire in a couple months. Does anyone know when you can start placing orders for the Electric F150, someone estimated that it will only be a little over $90K, sounds like a steal.
this is fantastic work! in the past, how closely have your numbers tracked actual sales?
@Mario and Coll. Indeed. My car has VIN 19127.
I got the VIN somewhere late July 13 and no sign of a delivery date yet.
But .... I'm looking forward driving it whenever it will be delivered ;-)
Grtz from Belgium.
This is no longer the NEW VIN thread, it's the old new thread. The new new VIN tread is http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/new-buyers-please-post-your-vin-...
26999 delivered 12/7/2013. MS 85+
This is not an active thread. Use http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/vin-submission
I'll copy your post there.