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Prediction of where I am in In line

Prediction of where I am in In line

I forgot to go to the Tesla store and book. Im think out loud based on fact that are out there.

Of course I would like the the full tax credit.

Right now. I had heard estimates Tesla has delivered 110k cars so far in the US. My buddy was telling me that Elon has already hinted they would sell 199k in use and shift over to foreign deliveries. Then crack 200 k in a new quarter, and then they still get 1 more quarter with max tax credit.

So Elon said at about 9p pacific that 115,000 people reserved, because I did mine at 730 pacific. Hopefully I was around 85000 on the international list and hopefully 50-55k in the US, Im in the midwest, I can see my self getting an upgraded roof, dual motor, etc. Hopefully 20% of people drop out.

Just my 2 cents

dsvick | April 9, 2016

Overall position on the list doesn't matter as much as position in your region. There are several other considerations that affect when you'll get you're car such as if you're a prior owner of an S or an X and how you option it. It's already been stated that they're going to start deliveries near the factory first, then expand that to the West coast and move East from there.

Anything beyond that is pure guess work...

Bighorn | April 9, 2016

Not close to 110k domestic deliveries yet.

compchat | April 10, 2016

110 Deliveries of which vehicle? Can't be Model 3 as it hasn't been built yet.

Bighorn | April 10, 2016

@compchat
The pertinent figure is domestically delivered Teslas, so Roadster, S and X.

SCCRENDO | April 10, 2016

Speculate as much as you like. But nobody truly knows. If we have a Dem president (particularly Saunders) with a Dem congress and Senate perhaps there may even be longer or greater incentives. If we get one of the leading Republican candidates with a strong Republican Senate and Congress we may drill drill drill, frack, frack, frack as none of this changes their environment and no more rebates for EVs.

When the time comes, if you lose your incentive you can buy it anyway. However if the incentive was the only reason you were considering getting the car than you could cancel your reservation, bolt to the "Bolt", blow gently over to the new "Leaf" or stink up the air with the latest ICE

KP in NPT | April 10, 2016

Too many variables. I estimate I was in the first 2.5K ordered in my region, and I'm an owner. I still have zero idea when I will get my car and what tax incentive will be left. It's not even worth worrying about until production actually begins and we have a better idea of when the incentive will indeed start to step down.

MarlonBrown | April 10, 2016

Sccrendo, your dellusion about Bernie is scary. Socialists and communists never in history have nurtured entrepeneurism and innovation. Bernie utopia of high taxes and his open obsession with Wall Street and the rich would actually point to the opposite of what companies like Tesla need to thrive.

SCCRENDO | April 10, 2016

Marlon just because Bernie may call himself a social democrat does not mean he follows communist policies. Have you ever listened to him. One of his priorities is combating global warming. This was highlighted in the earlier Dem debates. No one is disputing that he may try raise taxes but I can definitely see him trying to extend incentives to industries and individuals trying to combat global warming. Marlon you suffer from a few right wing delusional stereotypes. Firstly you give him a communist label and then speculating he will behave according to the label. Your generalization about Wall Street does not mean a war on industry but a war on Wall Street. Bernie is not at war with the rich and big business but at war with corruption. For the record I like Bernie but will not be voting for him because I don't think he is electable so I'm going with Hillary. I'm just correcting the record that a President Saunders will be a friend of Tesla and an enemy of the gas guzzling auto industry.

Bighorn | April 10, 2016

Here I thought his name was Sanders all this time.

SCCRENDO | April 10, 2016

Bighorn my error. I'm just giving him his communist name.

KP in NPT | April 10, 2016

Going by all the tesla hater comments on the Internet, here I thought we were all hippie liberals. ;)

mos6507 | April 10, 2016

I hope this forum has a moderator...

MarlonBrown | April 10, 2016

Sccrendo, trust me the perservation of our environment is one of my major concerns. I differ on how we can accomplish that though. I believe that focusing in entrepeneurism, low taxes and competition including in our education system is what can get us the Tesla of the US that we need and enjoy so much. Sanders want me to pay for useless degrees and to me that will lead to policies totally the opposite of what allowed a marvel like Tesla to thrive in the US. I originally came from a socialist place with lot of politicians talking like Sanders so I have a different perspective. Peace.

mb30 | April 10, 2016

@mos6507 - I guess you're new here lol

rxlawdude | April 10, 2016

@MarlonBrown - " I believe that focusing in entrepeneurism, low taxes and competition [would solve global warming]." I have a bridge to sell you.

warren_tran | April 10, 2016

Sccrendo, trust me the perservation of our environment is one of my major concerns.

@Marlonbrown: how do you have this as your concern but wanting to raise the price on model ≡ so less people would buy it. Aren't you being hypocrite

MarlonBrown | April 10, 2016

Warrentt, oh my. The price of the Model 3 will be raised whether you like it or not until production can meet the demand for the product. I guess that will take few years it seems. My point is that Tesla could raise it now so that folks who could pay for it could actually get the product sooner and in turn make Tesla even more successful by allowing the company to sustain and increase capacity if profit is solid. What I want is the company to be as profitable as possible to advance its mission. It seems what you want is to get the cheapest car possible for you. Socialist countries don't have a Tesla running there folks. That is just a factual observation. It is very naive when one talks about global warming concerns but want to tax people like Elon Musk and many of his employees to death because he is rich and make people pay for the useless type of degree that Musk himself already said he doesn't like to use in his own company (for example MBA useless degrees). I haven't seen any socialist country - which I probably know better than most posting here - promoting anti-global warming policies. I have seen them driving their people to poverty and using even more antiquated fossil fuel technology to keep the economy inching along. Go ahead and introduce that system here and let's see how that will work.

MarlonBrown | April 10, 2016

Warrentt, oh my. The price of the Model 3 will be raised whether you like it or not until production can meet the demand for the product. I guess that will take few years it seems. My point is that Tesla could raise it now so that folks who could pay for it could actually get the product sooner and in turn make Tesla even more successful by allowing the company to sustain and increase capacity if profit is solid. What I want is the company to be as profitable as possible to advance its mission. It seems what you want is to get the cheapest car possible for you. Socialist countries don't have a Tesla running there folks. That is just a factual observation. It is very naive when one talks about global warming concerns but want to tax people like Elon Musk and many of his employees to death because he is rich and make people pay for the useless type of degree that Musk himself already said he doesn't like to use in his own company (for example MBA useless degrees). I haven't seen any socialist country - which I probably know better than most posting here - promoting anti-global warming policies. I have seen them driving their people to poverty and using even more antiquated fossil fuel technology to keep the economy inching along. Go ahead and introduce that system here and let's see how that will work.

MarlonBrown | April 10, 2016

Just in case some of you (who probably never lived in socialist countries but believe that is excellent) try to give examples of few places like Switzerland, Denmark etc who may promote the environment, it remains that Silicon Valley exists in the US for a reason and high tech qualified employees who work at Tesla and other high tech companies which may indeed make a positive impact in the environment are concentrated in the US for a reason.

SCCRENDO | April 10, 2016

@Marlon. Unfortunately the US has a long way to go in protecting the environment. If you want a President for the environment it will be Sanders first and Hillary second. Looks like for your goals stated above we may have a President too. Either Trump or Cruz. However they won't do much for the environment because I've heard them both state that climate change either does not exist or is man made. Trump is also unlikely to get that wall built because I don't think Mexico wants to pay for it.

MarlonBrown | April 10, 2016

Sccrendo I think I understand your point. Since we consume and proportionally pollute more, we could definitely focus in more pro environment initiatives. But I think we can respectfully disagree on who can drive the most effective policies to get us there though. I am trying to make a point that a candidate who can deliver policies to keep true capitalism, innovation and entrepeneurism successful in the end may cause a much more positive impact in the environment than a socialist since companies like Tesla needs the former system to succeed. Just my humble opinion. Thanks for the civil discussion.

Red Sage ca us | April 10, 2016

Just imagine that you are dead last in line.

Then 1,000 people line up behind you.

Feel better?

JAD | April 10, 2016

So do I actually have to move to Fremont or can I just rent a place for the address to get to the front of the line :)

malcolm.hall1932 | April 11, 2016

MarlonBrown: Help me out. I guess you include UK as a socialist nation with their National Health service but I think they are pretty good innovators and are helping EV sales and perhaps President Obama has helped promote them too. I don't follow your argument.

malcolm.hall1932 | April 11, 2016

MarlonBrown: On second thoughts, please don't bother to respond to my email - it's not relevant to the thread.
Thank you in advance.